Opinion Why are there So Many Poor teams in 2025

[Guardian Hawk]

The flip side of this is how hot the competition is for top 4 and top 8 spots this year.

Has a team ever been 10-6 and not even been top 8 (like Freo are now)?

My own side is 11-5 (which would normally be top 3), sitting in 6th with a chance to be out of the 8 by the end of the weekend.

It's very tough at the top and there's going to be a very unlucky 9th (and 5/6th) this year.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Perhaps it’s the wrong question. Maybe it should be “Why are there so many very good teams in 2025?” In a normal year, middle-minus teams would have more wins and look better.

Exactly, there are 9 quite good teams, that’s the outlier

 

[Hobbes]

Play twice: Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne

Play twice: Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond

You may have played more top 8 sides than we have to round 17 but you're also 3 games and percentage behind us. But take a look at how many bottom sides you'll double up against and then work out why you'll very likely finish top 2 if not on top by the end of the year?

Pies play 4 top 8 sides twice and 2 bottom sides twice.
Cats play 2 top 8 sides twice and 4 bottom sides twice.

Apart from the bankable wins its a pretty big assured percentage boost wouldn't you say?

And this is only two relatively comparable sides.....the inequities are obvious (which team made finals in 2024 and therefore should have received the tougher draw??)

The way the AFL has attempted to manipulate the 'success capabilities' of its clubs this year is abominable. The quicker we go to a play everyone once a year and then alternate the following year type draw the better.

Geelong got a bit lucky with the draw. (So did Fremantle and Carlton). I'm not complaining - somebody is going to be drawn against teams which fall short of expectations.

Collingwood got a bit unlucky with the draw. But it's nothing compared to Brisbane, whose double-ups are against Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn.

 

[Hobbes]

The flip side of this is how hot the competition is for top 4 and top 8 spots this year.

Has a team ever been 10-6 and not even been top 8 (like Freo are now)?

My own side is 11-5 (which would normally be top 3), sitting in 6th with a chance to be out of the 8 by the end of the weekend.

It's very tough at the top and there's going to be a very unlucky 9th (and 5/6th) this year.

After 16 rounds (since 1995), the team placed ninth had

10 wins: 2025
9 wins: 2002,2018,2022
8 wins: 1996,1997,1998,1999,2001,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2012,2014,2015,2017,2019,2020,2024
7.5 wins: 2023
7 wins: 1995,2000,2011,2013,2016,2021

10/6 and out of the top 8 is unique.

I was thinking the numbers would lift when the competition expanded to 18 teams, but it hasn't really worked that way.

In 2016, the top eight didn't shift after round 6.

For a top-4 comparison, after 16 rounds the team placed fifth had:

11.5 wins: 2013
11 wins: 2012,2014,2021,2025
10.5 wins: 1996
10 wins: 1995,1999,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2009,2010,2011,2015, 2016,2018,2020,2022
9 wins: 1997,1998,2000,2008,2017,2019,2023,2024

 

[Hobbes]

Not very many teams have missed the finals with 10/16 or better.

11 wins: Essendon (2012), Port Adelaide (2018)
10 wins: Geelong (2002)
(Ignoring Essendon 2013 - 12 wins)

 

[Walshawk]

There are no more poor teams than usual. It is just that there are nine really good teams instead of five or six. So, the middle teams like Swans, Blues, Saints, Port, Dees who would usually pinch two or three extra wins, are only able to beat each other and the bottom teams.