why carlton?

[NoIdea]

The one passage of play that really confused me was mid way through the last quarter, Carlton were up by either 1 or 7 points. The ball was turned over mid wing - there were 3 Carlton players to 1 Bomber, and the ball was kicked into a Carlton forward line where there were more unmarked Blues.

My question is "Where were the free Bombers?" - up the field waiting for an easy kick. We've got too many players who want the glory but don't have the guts to get their ass back to help out in defence. How many times did Fevola manage to run 50+ metres to pressure our blokes into poor disposals? How many times did our players do the same - not bloody many.

Very, very disappointing effort especially given the number of easy shots (what the HELL was Peverill trying to do) we missed.

 

[Dan26]

You have us between the ears right now...hopefully like North it now ends!

I reckon that's hogwash, and just using the "end result" to justify an opinion.

A closer examination of the results (since Carlton have been crap) shows the following:

2002 - we won twice

2003 - won one, lost one

2004 - won one, lost one

2005 - won one lost one (the loss was by 2 points, the win was by 99)

2006 - drew one lost one

2007 - lost, with hopefully a win to come.

Three of our non-wins consisted of a 2-point loss, a 3-point loss and a draw.
ALL of those with a bit of luck could have gone either way, with yeserday being a perfect example.

When was the last time Carlton won convincingly against Essendon? Perhaps last year on Mother's Day was the only time since 1997 (when they thrashed us by about 80) that they have won easily in the last 10 years and it took us to be on the bottom for that to happen.

It's amazing how tiny margins prompt these strange opinions, when "having a team between the ears" is better reflected by a team actually outplaying and beating an opponent easily.

Carlton havn't consistently out-played Essendon and won convingingly since 1995-1996-1997 (when they won 5 out of 6, most of them comfortably.) Lately, they've just gotten over the line in some 50-50 close games, that could have easily gone either way, that's all.

 

[Smokin]

Three of our non-wins consisted of a 2-point loss, a 3-point loss and a draw.
ALL of those with a bit of luck could have gone either way, with yeserday being a perfect example.

Yet, in close couple goal games since 99, we are 0-7 against them. Mathamatically speaking, shouldnt probabilities tell us that we should have at least pinched ONE of these so called "50-50" games??

How many of our wins in the years your posted came in the second, dead game? all bar 1?

In this period we have no doubt been a better overall team, yet we seem to save our worst for them, bar a couple of dead rubber games generally filled with younger players. You can call it a coincidence if you like, but I think there is no doubt Essendon do not like playing Carlton.

 

[Dan26]

I think it's coincidence.

Are you implying that when Lovett was running into that goal late in the game he thought to himself, "Gee, we're playing Carlton, that makes me nervous, hope I don't stuff up the kick"

When Kepler Bradley won a hard-ball get at the 30 minute mark in round 2 2005 with us two points down and kicked it 50 metres into our forward line hoping for a contesed mark, were all the forwards thinking, "Gee, we're playing Carlton. That means I won't be able to take this pack mark."

In a close game anything can happen. If Carlton were owning us in the same way the kangaroos have in recent time I'd agrewe with you, but they havn't. Carlton very rarely dominate us. Only three meetings ago, we beat them by 99 points!

They've just got over the line in some 50-50 games, that's all.

 

[stugots]

gutted, betrayed, parro last night to try & whipe it away, still there & worse today, anyone but carlton ffs

 

[Dan26]

gutted, betrayed, parro last night to try & whipe it away, still there & worse today, anyone but carlton ffs

I'm the same. I want the Saints game to come around ASAP to forget about yesterday. Bad losses just linger and I've been thinking about it all day, depressed.

On a better note, I still thought there were a lot of good signs yesterday, the result aside.

 

[M29]

I'm the same. I want the Saints game to come around ASAP to forget about yesterday. Bad losses just linger and I've been thinking about it all day, depressed.

On a better note, I still thought there were a lot of good signs yesterday, the result aside.

I think we'll beat the saints. Infact I was more confident all week of beating them than beating the scum yesterday.

I really would like to beat cton again though, it's been 2 years almost. Ha. I was tempted to put $ on them at $3. Apparently at half time they were $7.

 

[Dr Moose]

God, how much more of this needs to go on...
carlton, sure we've played them lots for a long time and don't like losing, BUT
Collingwood - I hate Collingwood. Anzac Day. That's a rivalry.
Melbourne love beating us like no other team
Hawthorn still quite rightly come into our clashes reflecting the legacy of a truly incredible 80's

and I've been to enough games at the Gabba to know that the ghosts of 2001 still mean something

.. and that's got nothing to do with waving scarves at Eagles fans or titanic struggles against the Roos or Bulldogs.

What I mean is this crap about "they've got it over us" can only run so far. With so many young players in our team who shouldn't be carrying skeletons, let's just get on with playing better against all teams and less excuses.

 

[Dan26]

I think we'll beat the saints. Infact I was more confident all week of beating them than beating the scum yesterday.

I really would like to beat cton again though, it's been 2 years almost. Ha. I was tempted to put $ on them at $3. Apparently at half time they were $7.

Remember, Drew, I did warn you that the "less than a goal" losses still have a lot of evening out to do.

The sad thing is I still think there is more bad luck to come. Three last year (4 with the draw) and one this year, so far. I knew they'd start to pile up.

Also, where is windyhill?.... he hasn't be around for 2 months.

 

[Dan26]

God, how much more of this needs to go on...
carlton, sure we've played them lots for a long time and don't like losing, BUT
Collingwood - I hate Collingwood. Anzac Day. That's a rivalry.
Melbourne love beating us like no other team
Hawthorn still quite rightly come into our clashes reflecting the legacy of a truly incredible 80's

and I've been to enough games at the Gabba to know that the ghosts of 2001 still mean something

.. and that's got nothing to do with waving scarves at Eagles fans or titanic struggles against the Roos or Bulldogs.

What I mean is this crap about "they've got it over us" can only run so far. With so many young players in our team who shouldn't be carrying skeletons, let's just get on with playing better against all teams and less excuses.

Exactly.

It's a myth they "have it over us" or they'd be thrashing us every time.

They've just gotten over the line in some 50-50 games in recent times against us, that's all.

 

[Johnny Utah #9]

I reckon that's hogwash, and just using the "end result" to justify an opinion.

A closer examination of the results (since Carlton have been crap) shows the following:

2002 - we won twice

2003 - won one, lost one

2004 - won one, lost one

2005 - won one lost one (the loss was by 2 points, the win was by 99)

2006 - drew one lost one

2007 - lost, with hopefully a win to come.

Three of our non-wins consisted of a 2-point loss, a 3-point loss and a draw.
ALL of those with a bit of luck could have gone either way, with yeserday being a perfect example.

When was the last time Carlton won convincingly against Essendon? Perhaps last year on Mother's Day was the only time since 1997 (when they thrashed us by about 80) that they have won easily in the last 10 years and it took us to be on the bottom for that to happen.

It's amazing how tiny margins prompt these strange opinions, when "having a team between the ears" is better reflected by a team actually outplaying and beating an opponent easily.

Carlton havn't consistently out-played Essendon and won convingingly since 1995-1996-1997 (when they won 5 out of 6, most of them comfortably.) Lately, they've just gotten over the line in some 50-50 close games, that could have easily gone either way, that's all.

Very valid points there Smokin.

I think the supposed mental edge Carlton have over Essendon is a media beat up. Yes, Carlton have enjoyed classic upsets like 1999 Prelim and 2001 rd 3 when you guys were nigh on unbeatable, but on the whole you have had the better of us, especially during our lean past 5 years.

All in all it was a great game and yet another remarkable chapter in this amazing rivalry and to use an old cliche "Good for football". The experience it would have provided to the young kids on both sides is invaluable.

Look forward to the rematch later in the year when hopefully there will be a lot more than 64,000 there!

 

[NathanS]

I won $400 - big deal, this is the worst I can remember feeling since 99...with perhaps the 01 GF the exception. I feel sick.

Wow... I never went that far... I'd feel like Judas if I did that.

I had the same feeling. In fact when one of my friends asked how I thought Essendon would shape up to help his footy tipping, I advised him to tip Carlton.

 

[Smokin]

Wow... I never went that far... I'd feel like Judas if I did that.

I had the same feeling. In fact when one of my friends asked how I thought Essendon would shape up to help his footy tipping, I advised him to tip Carlton.

Yea, I often bet against one of my teams if we are overwhelming favourites, and I feel we shouldnt be. My theory is that if I, a big fan, think the odds are skewed, then generally they would be being somewhat biased "for" us, and also it's a win-win...nothing better than winning the game, but if we have to lose, at least get a piece of the ridiculous odds.

In relation to the your second point, that is half my point in relation to our matchup with Carlton. Most Essendon fans I knew were, regardless of both teams respective form, were very aprehensive coming into this game. How many times did I read last make one of us write comments to effect of being more confident against Freo, or St. Kilda this week etc.

Now if we, the fans, are feeling this, we'd have to be niave to think this isnt manifesting itself to the club and player group. In fact, you would have no doubt it was if you listened to Ayres last week on Bomber radio. He commented that the club had to be all the ball all week, talked about the history of getting beat when form says we shouldnt, changing the trend etc.

Psycology plays a huge part in sport, it's niave to think otherwise. It doesnt take much either - would it be unreasonable to suggest there is more self-doubt with Essendon when they play Carlton, than say a Freo in Melbourne? And vice-versa, Carlton seem to love playing us, "seem" to grow another leg...it is about their self belief. They can go from being humiliated, to thinking they are a genuine chance - all mentally.

Now Im not suggesting when Lovett should have won us the game he was thinking of this etc, but overall, I think a little more self doubt creeps into us when we play Carlton, than average, and vice versa for them. How many times have they missed key players against us, and still rolled us when big outsiders? They seem to find form when it hasnt been there. Take Fev, Lappin and Whitnall - all struggling this year, then happen to ALL find some sort of form at once, basically in the same 3 quarters of a game? Is all this a coincidence, or are they filled with more self belief this week hence making them sharper mentally, manifesting itself in on field form?

It is not limited to Carlton, we have had it over certain teams as well at different points. IMO form against each other is just as important as current form when analysing a matchup. Sure, styles play a part, but you cant dismiss the mental aspects.

Any sports psychologist will tell you that if you dont believe you can win, then you wont. Success breeds success, and vice versa.

I feel our self doubt, as fans, is at its highest when playing Carlton than any other team, all things being equal. To think this can manifest itself to a playing group is reasonable.

Now in relation to lately being apparently so bad in razor-thin games, this can have an element of this as well. Why do we lose so many of this games, which, in theory, we should win half of em? Why are we 0-7 against Carlton when it 50-50 games? Do we doubt ourselves too much in crunch situations? Surely we should have fluked at least one of these? Surely!

Or is it all one big coincidence?