Why Essendon Will Not Be As Strong As What Everyone Thinks Over The Next Decade

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WCE2000

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Jul 19, 2000
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Just about everybody in the media game, is saying that Essendon are not going to get far off 5 flags over this decade (including this year, so they already are 1 from 1).
However, i do not think they will be that dominate, and will probably win 3 at the maximum. Yes, Essendon's current team are young, Yes, they have already won a flag, and Yes, they were minor premiers and unlucky last year.
However, i really doubt that Essendon will win 5 flags, and probably only win 3 at maximum for 1 reason - The Salary Cap.
I can't see how Essendon can keep all they're stars on their list, with the current salary cap. If the same list was playing 30 or so years ago, when there was no money in sport, then they probably would win or at least get close to 5 flags in a decade.
Look at their list. It is an amazing list, especially when you consider that there is over 15 players that are under 23. Of which, 10 are some of their bigger name players.
In about 3 years, this is what these players will be worth:
Blumfield - $ 350 000
Caracella - $ 500 000
Heffernan - $ 200 000
J Johnson - $ 350 000
M Johnson - $ 400 000
Lloyd - $ 1 000 000
Lucas - $ 500 000
Ramaunaskas - $ 250 000
Rioli - $ 300 000
Solomon - $ 250 000
Just from that list there $4.1 million dollars. That is 10 players, and the salary cap in 2003 will probably be about $7 million
Add that to some of the big name senior players currently on Essendon's List:
Fletcher (28) - $ 600 000
Hird (30) - $ 550 000
Mercuri (29) - $ 750 000
Misiti (29) - $ 550 000
Wellman (29) - $ 300 000
Theres $2.75 million From that group of 5 players, making for $6.85 million from their 15 biggest players. And they're nearly over the salary cap.
Unless some players take some big cuts they are not going to be able to keep all their star footballers.


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Its called estimating.
Obviously, i would not know the exact amount that players are being payed, but i'm sure those are reasonable guesses.
Yes, i know some players are loyal, but there is an old saying - Money Speaks all languages.
Think, if one club offers you $500 000 to play for them, while Essendon ask you to be loyal and only offer $350 000. Who would you go for?? $150 000 is a lot of dough, and most sportsman would go for the money.

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OK Then, well can you tell us what your estimations are then, and we can take the average.
Remember, you must consider that the Player Payments and the Salary Cap will rise very quickly over the next few years. I said 7 million, actually now i think about it, the current one is $4.25. So it will probably be a fraction under 6 million in 2003.

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I'm a stauch Bombers supporter but I'm gonna play Devil's advocate and say I agree with WCE2000. Not that I don't have confidence in the Bombers; certainly they are CAPABLE of stringing a few flags together.

Just like other competitive sports, the competetiveness of the league is too good for dynasties to survive. As the Essendon wins mount, the players will want more money. Some are loyal but some will get offers from elsewhere they can't refuse.

Young talent doesn't always pan out. Injuries can ruin a career. Teams can also lose the hunger. If you've won two flags in a row suddenly the third one doesn't seem as sweet.

I'm not saying Essendon won't win another flag soon; I think the chances are very, very good for that. But talks of dominating the competition for years to come is a bit premature I reckon.
 
They're not going to win 5 flags this decade, I can tell you.

That's way too hard.

I'd be happy if we can pick up 3 this decade, taking into account that we've already won one.

Under Sheedy, over his 20 years, we really should have won 6 flags.

We were the best team in 1990, and 1999, but couldn't win in the finals, and we have been unlucky not to "pinch" and undeserved flag (eg 1981, 1982, 1996). We didn't deserve to win in either 81,82, or 96, but with a bit of luck, we could have pincched on of them (like Adelaide)

We only seem to win flags when we are the years best team. Our 4 flags under Sheeds have been when we were on top of the ladder.

And as I said, we also finished on top in 1990 and 1999. We really should have won 6.

Hopefully, number 17 will come in 2001
 
Here, here, oh my hat!!

Apparently there are rumours that Richmond want Lucas. But why would he want to leave after winning a premiership? He is only young. Besides, we still have our salary cap problems.
frown.gif
 
I dont think Lucas would be a good option for Richmond. They already have Richardson full-forward, Holland Half-forward, Gale (who will retire soon) and Ottens can also be thrown up as key forwards.
Lucas would only congest things for Richmond in their forward line, especially when you consider that Campbell, Daffy and Bowden get down there at every opportunity.

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where oh where do you get your infomation from, oh_my_hat ?

No.1 Peter Vardy is more than likely going to end up at Geelong in exchange for Simon Arnott and Andy Eccles is probably going to Collingwood
No.2 Why wouldn any self respecting decent player want to go to a 'failure' club like Richmond who cannot make the finals for love no money
No.3 Scott Lucas would never, repeat never play for a team of charlatons like Richmond such an awful awful team full of moronic supporters (geddit ?)
 

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Seriously - it is called "being realistic". I don't want to take anything away from the Bombers, but 5 flags in the next 10 years? Not a chance - too many other clubs hungry for the success needed to keep them in the comp as commercial pressures push for fewer teams.

That said, I don't think forecasts of 10 years are possible anyway. Who picked Melbourne for a berth in the GF this year?
 
WCE2000- why is Hird only on $550,000???? I reckon he'll be worth more than Mercuri in 4 years. And Ramanauskas at $250,000? Much more if you ask me. Generally I agree with you though- no question the dons will lose a lot of their list. I don't think players are that loyal anymore, and often don't have much say. GUys like the Johnsons, Heffernan, Caracella, Blumfield, Rioli- not cover boys like Hird and Lloyd- they'll go I'd think. There are a lot of guys in that team who would be higher profile if they were in other teams where they'd be marquee players. The glory and the money combined will be hard to resist, especially if they think other guys will be leaving for the same reasons,decreasing their future premiership hopes with the bombers.
 
Isn't he on one of the deals where by taking a pay cut for a few years, he'll get ENORMOUS amounts of money (millions) once on the veterans list?

That's what I hird
wink.gif
anyway....
 
next year you would think we would have atleast on spot left on the vetrens list
and then another the following year
meaning that in 2002 mercuri and hird will both be on the veterens list freeing up a lot of room in the cap
and you are all forgeting that the cap goes up next year and again the following year
 
Caracella, great player in the making he is, is not worth 550K a year and definitely not worth 200K more than Blumfield who has improved out of sight in my view in last two months and really earnt the cash.

5 Flags is very ambitious and not realistic - I'm with Dan - back to back plus one more sometime later this decade with this team would be more than acceptable to take us two clear of the Light blue M&M scumbags.

The only way we'll win more is if the players sacrifice cash for glory.

Dutch

PS. That was a lot more than two words Oh_my_hat...
 
What value is Michael Long to Essendon ? He will retire soon

I offered the thought a few days ago that essendon may already be three of four years int the 'Up' Cycle. Cetainly they would have done much better without all those injuries etc.

But salary cap and drafting will make it Hard for Essendon to emulate the Collingwood, Melbourne or Hawthorn 'runs' if premierships. If they do, it will really be worth applauding.
 
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