Why has 4th on the ladder not won a grand final this century?

[Fadge]

You are having a different conversation, I’m not saying who should or should not win, my point was a higher winner vs. lower loser system makes more sense, my guess is they don’t do it for fixturing reasons. There are very realistic scenarios where the higher placed team ends up with a stronger opponent in week 2 than the team that finishes 2nd or 3rd and loses in week 1

But if all results go according to the seedings, which is the most likely scenario, the higher placed team will play the 'weaker' opponent in week 2.

The finals system in the mid to late 90's had fluidity around who would play who in week 2, and it didn't work well at all (hence why it only lasted a handful of seasons).

 

[Ralll]

I'd guess it's both the probability of the GF winner becoming less likely the lower down the ladder you go, and factor in a small sample size and you get the current anomaly where 4th has not won the GF this century.
I'm sure it will happen sooner or later as the sample size grows. It just needs a top team to end up in 4th. eg. Injuries during the season.

 

[Happy_Neale]

But if all results go according to the seedings, which is the most likely scenario, the higher placed team will play the 'weaker' opponent in week 2.

The finals system in the mid to late 90's had fluidity around who would play who in week 2, and it didn't work well at all (hence why it only lasted a handful of seasons).

That is not the system the AFL had, it was 1v8, 2v7 etc which is not what I am saying at all. The problem with that system is that if 1st loses week 1 it essentially is on the road for the rest of the finals where 7th/8th will get a home final second week

 

[Fadge]

That is not the system the AFL had, it was 1v8, 2v7 etc which is not what I am saying at all. The problem with that system is that if 1st loses week 1 it essentially is on the road for the rest of the finals where 7th/8th will get a home final second week

And I never said 'it was the system the AFL had'.

My comment was 'there was fluidity around the matchups for week 2'.

 

[Happy_Neale]

And I never said 'it was the system the AFL had'.

My comment was 'there was fluidity around the matchups for week 2'.

Right. Well you're either being disingenous or you don't understand because that is a much different system to what I was talking about

 

[nineteen eighty]

Are you sure you're not a Collingwood supporter, given that level of statistical analysis?

I have one toof on one side of my mouth and another one toof on the other. How many toof do I have?

Well that's the level of conversation I would overhear at Vic Park back in the day.

 

[Fadge]

I have one toof on one side of my mouth and another one toof on the other. How many toof do I have?

Well that's the level of conversation I would overhear at Vic Park back in the day.

We've evolved considerably since then...

 

[Freomaniac]

How often has 4th been eliminated in straight sets?

good question...

Dockers were 4th in 2014 and was out in straght sets.

Swans were 4th in 2015 and went out in straight sets too.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

That is not the system the AFL had, it was 1v8, 2v7 etc which is not what I am saying at all. The problem with that system is that if 1st loses week 1 it essentially is on the road for the rest of the finals where 7th/8th will get a home final second week

Didn't the top six, or at least version of it (maybe the original version of the eight, which had other issues), have the highest/lowest winner for week two rather than winner/loser of specific matches?

 

[boncer34]

good question...

Dockers were 4th in 2014 and was out in straght sets.

Swans were 4th in 2015 and went out in straight sets too.

Good question that was answered 5 posts later.

You got 5 posts into the thread and couldn't be bothered reading another 5?

 

[Percel]

No one believes in Go Fourth and Conquer anymore

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

This is factually incorrect.

The following teams have made the Grand Final from 4th:
Collingwood in 2002 - beat Port in the Qualifying Final before losing the Grand Final to Brisbane by 9 points;
Sydney in 2006 - beat West Coast in the Qualifying Final before losing to West Coast in the Grand Final;
Geelong in 2020 - beat Port in the Qualifying Final before losing to Richmond in the Grand Final.

Other near misses of 4th placed teams include:
Collingwood in 2022
Collingwood in 2019
GWS in 2016

It is definitely more difficult to win it from 4th than it is from 1st, 2nd or 3rd, by my abacus says over the long term we'll see it every 10 to 12 years.

We lost the QF in 2020 to port. Smashed the Pies in the semi then smashed the Lions in the prelim.
Both GF teams in 2020 lost week 1.

 

[KissKiss]

I've been wondering for a few seasons if 4th is much better chance than 5th. The pre-season bye seems to cancel out the advantage for 4th. Plus 5th gets the easiest game in round 1 of the finals to ease into things

We threw everything at the last round to finish 4th in 2021 and then crashed out, maybe we should have held back

 

[peetoo]

The winner of 2v3 seems to have an inside track for the rest of the finals

And it’s funny how often the comp has only 3 standout teams (or less)

 

[emuboy]

The winner of 2v3 seems to have an inside track for the rest of the finals

The current Final 8 while much better than the McIntyre Final 8 system can still throw up some real anomalies. Well known is the anomaly is that if either 1st or 2nd loses their Qualifying Final a 1st vs. 2nd Grand Final immediately becomes impossible, but if both 1 & 2 lose and then rebound to win their SFs and PFs, then the GF will be 1st vs 2nd, like if both had won in the first week of the finals.

However, look at the below situation and see how strange things can end up if results go certain ways:

1.A
2.B
3.C
4.D
5.E
6.F
7.G
8.H

Week 1 QF: A d. D, C d B; EF: H d. E, F d. G

Week 2 SF: B d. F, H d. D

Week 3 PF: A vs. B, C vs. H

So in the Preliminary Finals A, the minor premiers which won their QF gets 'rewarded' by playing second placed B, while the fellow QF winner 3rd placed 3 gets to play 8th-placed H which has come up from the EF.

 

[DaTBird187]

Each year there are three teams better than them?

 

[Freomaniac]

Each year there are three teams better than them?

Debatable sometimes.

 

[terrybull]

4 is death in Cantonese

 

[Tarkyn_24]

We've evolved considerably since then...

Third toofs nowadays