Since Marvel Stadium opened for the 2000 season, these are the only AFL teams who haven't played a Grand Final:
North
Carlton
GC (Est. 2011)
And Essendon last played a GF in 2001.
Since Essendon's flag in 2000, only the Dogs have won a flag playing out of Marvel. And it was the most mysterious, incredible 4 weeks of footy we've ever seen by a team who finished 7th.
St Kilda came very close in 2009 and 2010.
Since Marvel opened, Marvel clubs have won a whopping 10 wooden spoons out of 26 (or 11 if you count Essendon 2016).
Marvel has been a graveyard.
Why?
Here's my theory.
All Melbourne clubs face inherent disadvantages, which is why they've been 22 of the last 52 GF teams but 18 of last 26 wooden spooners (counting 2nd last as spoon 2011-2013).
Those disadvantages are:
1. Trade and free agency competition from other Melbourne clubs. There's only 3 ways to get players into your club: Draft, trade, free agency. Melbourne teams are disadvantaged with the latter two, purely because there's 9 teams here with Geelong and the Surf Coast down the road.
2. Recently, draft disadvantage compared to NSW/QLD clubs and their academies. Now we're disadvantaged on all 3 methods of acquiring players.
3. Crowd disadvantage due to socio-demographic factors (interstate migration meaning more non-Victorians in Victoria) and historical AFL factors (Syd/Bris having Melbourne supporter bases).
4. Ground disadvantages due to ground familiarity. No true home ground. Opponents are familiar with Marvel and MCG. The reverse isn't true.
Some of those disadvantages are noticeably worse for small clubs (eg: #1 and #3). It'll always be extra difficult for Saints, North, Dogs and Demons. It just happens 3 of them are Marvel teams.
The small clubs also have had extra disadvantages that big Melbourne clubs don't face. Like:
5. Being sent to GMHBA or Launceston, where Geelong and Hawthorn have great records. (Remember, Geelong used to have 7 or 8 games there. Not 10 like this season. It was only non-Vic teams and small Melbourne clubs). St Kilda hasn't won in Geelong since 1999, but they've beaten the Cats 4 times in a row at Marvel! Even when Hawthorn was bottom 4 they were good in Launceston. StK, NM and WB have played in Launceston numerous times over the years. Other teams haven't.
6. Having to sell games to places like NZ (StK), Cairns (StK, WB), Alice Springs (Melbourne), and Perth (NM).
Consider St Kilda in 2022. Lost in Geelong but beat them in Melbourne. Lost by 1 pt in Cairns to Port. Kicked 4.18 in humid conditions. Finished 10th, 1 win and % outside the 8.
With 2 extra games in Melbourne instead of Geelong and Cairns, do Saints play finals in 2022? Maybe. We've beaten Geelong in Melbourne every time since then. And we'd already beaten them here in 2022.
Undoubtedly we win that Port game, under the roof with a Marvel crowd behind us. And quite possibly beat Geelong if that's at the MCG instead of GMHBA where we haven't won since 1999.
But Marvel clubs specifically have added disadvantages.
7. Never playing finals on their home ground.
8. Playing in different conditions. Marvel teams are conditioned to playing under a roof which can be a disadvantage in certain games. Rain or windy conditions. This isn't a major issue often but does happen. St Kilda played Richmond at MCG a couple of years ago- pretty even game, it started raining and Richmond took over and beat us by 20 ish. The commentators mentioned how Richmond looked experienced at playing in rain and Saints didn't.
So if you're St Kilda or North or WB, you've faced all 8 disadvantages.
Individually those 8 factors are of varying importance, but cumulatively they're a big obstacle to success in a relatively even 18-team comp.
They help explain why St Kilda, North and the Dogs struggle for success. (Well, the Dogs have been reasonably successful but they've certainly been helped by father-sons Libba and Darcy. And drafting Bontempelli who's been arguably overall the best AFL player of the last 10-12 years).
As for the "big", traditionally successful Marvel clubs. They're guilty of mismanagement.
Essendon was set back 10 years by the supplements scandal. The legal dramas dragged on for 4 years. They missed the 2013 finals and (basically) the entire 2016 season. They lost 3 draft picks, and players left over it (eg Paddy Ryder who became an All-Australian at Port). Plus whatever broader cultural impact it had.
Around 2013 there were 2 young Melbourne teams on the up. One of them went on to win 3 flags. The other was Essendon.
Carlton- has another club sacked that many coaches? Has another club ever taken on a 2nd-time coach who was so unsuccessful in their 1st stint?
With a better coach, they could've won a flag (or gone close) from 2022-24. They led the 2023 prelim by 5 goals with Voss. Imagine they had a good coach.
So, TL;DR summary. Ultimately for a Melbourne team, absolutely everything has to go right to win a flag. It's bloody tough. They face inherent disadvantages. But especially for small clubs, and especially Marvel ones. Their disadvantages are significant. And the bigger Marvel clubs have been mismanaged.
North
Carlton
GC (Est. 2011)
And Essendon last played a GF in 2001.
Since Essendon's flag in 2000, only the Dogs have won a flag playing out of Marvel. And it was the most mysterious, incredible 4 weeks of footy we've ever seen by a team who finished 7th.
St Kilda came very close in 2009 and 2010.
Since Marvel opened, Marvel clubs have won a whopping 10 wooden spoons out of 26 (or 11 if you count Essendon 2016).
Marvel has been a graveyard.
Why?
Here's my theory.
All Melbourne clubs face inherent disadvantages, which is why they've been 22 of the last 52 GF teams but 18 of last 26 wooden spooners (counting 2nd last as spoon 2011-2013).
Those disadvantages are:
1. Trade and free agency competition from other Melbourne clubs. There's only 3 ways to get players into your club: Draft, trade, free agency. Melbourne teams are disadvantaged with the latter two, purely because there's 9 teams here with Geelong and the Surf Coast down the road.
2. Recently, draft disadvantage compared to NSW/QLD clubs and their academies. Now we're disadvantaged on all 3 methods of acquiring players.
3. Crowd disadvantage due to socio-demographic factors (interstate migration meaning more non-Victorians in Victoria) and historical AFL factors (Syd/Bris having Melbourne supporter bases).
4. Ground disadvantages due to ground familiarity. No true home ground. Opponents are familiar with Marvel and MCG. The reverse isn't true.
Some of those disadvantages are noticeably worse for small clubs (eg: #1 and #3). It'll always be extra difficult for Saints, North, Dogs and Demons. It just happens 3 of them are Marvel teams.
The small clubs also have had extra disadvantages that big Melbourne clubs don't face. Like:
5. Being sent to GMHBA or Launceston, where Geelong and Hawthorn have great records. (Remember, Geelong used to have 7 or 8 games there. Not 10 like this season. It was only non-Vic teams and small Melbourne clubs). St Kilda hasn't won in Geelong since 1999, but they've beaten the Cats 4 times in a row at Marvel! Even when Hawthorn was bottom 4 they were good in Launceston. StK, NM and WB have played in Launceston numerous times over the years. Other teams haven't.
6. Having to sell games to places like NZ (StK), Cairns (StK, WB), Alice Springs (Melbourne), and Perth (NM).
Consider St Kilda in 2022. Lost in Geelong but beat them in Melbourne. Lost by 1 pt in Cairns to Port. Kicked 4.18 in humid conditions. Finished 10th, 1 win and % outside the 8.
With 2 extra games in Melbourne instead of Geelong and Cairns, do Saints play finals in 2022? Maybe. We've beaten Geelong in Melbourne every time since then. And we'd already beaten them here in 2022.
Undoubtedly we win that Port game, under the roof with a Marvel crowd behind us. And quite possibly beat Geelong if that's at the MCG instead of GMHBA where we haven't won since 1999.
But Marvel clubs specifically have added disadvantages.
7. Never playing finals on their home ground.
8. Playing in different conditions. Marvel teams are conditioned to playing under a roof which can be a disadvantage in certain games. Rain or windy conditions. This isn't a major issue often but does happen. St Kilda played Richmond at MCG a couple of years ago- pretty even game, it started raining and Richmond took over and beat us by 20 ish. The commentators mentioned how Richmond looked experienced at playing in rain and Saints didn't.
So if you're St Kilda or North or WB, you've faced all 8 disadvantages.
Individually those 8 factors are of varying importance, but cumulatively they're a big obstacle to success in a relatively even 18-team comp.
They help explain why St Kilda, North and the Dogs struggle for success. (Well, the Dogs have been reasonably successful but they've certainly been helped by father-sons Libba and Darcy. And drafting Bontempelli who's been arguably overall the best AFL player of the last 10-12 years).
As for the "big", traditionally successful Marvel clubs. They're guilty of mismanagement.
Essendon was set back 10 years by the supplements scandal. The legal dramas dragged on for 4 years. They missed the 2013 finals and (basically) the entire 2016 season. They lost 3 draft picks, and players left over it (eg Paddy Ryder who became an All-Australian at Port). Plus whatever broader cultural impact it had.
Around 2013 there were 2 young Melbourne teams on the up. One of them went on to win 3 flags. The other was Essendon.
Carlton- has another club sacked that many coaches? Has another club ever taken on a 2nd-time coach who was so unsuccessful in their 1st stint?
With a better coach, they could've won a flag (or gone close) from 2022-24. They led the 2023 prelim by 5 goals with Voss. Imagine they had a good coach.
So, TL;DR summary. Ultimately for a Melbourne team, absolutely everything has to go right to win a flag. It's bloody tough. They face inherent disadvantages. But especially for small clubs, and especially Marvel ones. Their disadvantages are significant. And the bigger Marvel clubs have been mismanaged.
