- Jun 9, 2008
- 13,487
- 15,280
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Yeah, I’m going big.
A lot of people will scoff at the idea of North Melbourne not only making the eight, but becoming a 16-win team in 2026. But if you zoom in on the right stats, trends, and growth curves, it’s not as insane as it sounds. The ingredients are all there. This is how and why it happens.
1. 2025 Was Ugly, But Misleading
North went 5–17 in 2025. Finished 16th. That’s the headline. But let’s unpack it.
First: the margin of losses. North lost seven games by under 20 points. They were competitive in large stretches of matches, especially in first halves. Second halves killed them because of inexperience, fatigue, and lack of depth.
Second: the list profile. The average age in 2025 was 23.6, second youngest in the league. The average games played per player was around 59. That’s three seasons away from a true prime. So when people say “they’re miles off,” they’re ignoring the normal curve of development. Most AFL players peak around 24 to 27 years of age, which aligns almost perfectly with this team’s trajectory in 2026 and 2027.
Third: there were green shoots. Harry Sheezel is already elite by disposal and intercept standards. George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher showed signs of becoming contested beasts. Charlie Comben started to look like a genuine ruck/forward hybrid. Paul Curtis is quietly becoming one of the best pressure forwards in the league. Larkey still kicks goals despite zero support. And more talent is coming in.
2. The Breakout Year Is Lined Up
For a 16-win season to happen, everything needs to click. But North has the levers.
The midfield is where the leap starts. Wardlaw and McKercher become full-time A-grade mids. Simpkin and LDU settle into high-impact support roles. And there's now depth - the likes of Dylan Stephens, Powell, and even Bergman rotating through.
Sheezel moves permanently into the midfield or becomes a full-blown half-back quarterback, delivering elite kicks forward 50. His disposal average in 2025 was over 27 a game, top 10 in the league. He’s already there. He just needs better targets.
Comben steps up and becomes a legitimate ruck-forward threat. When he’s healthy, his contested marking and ground-level follow-up are elite. His 2025 numbers (12 disposals, 20 hitouts per game) came from only partial time on ground. Ramp that up and he’s a 30+ hitout, 1.5-goal-a-game guy.
The defence hardens. Wil Dawson, Aidan Corr, and potentially a returning Griffin Logue give North size and structure. Their issue in 2025 was late-game fadeouts, not skill but composure and depth. With another pre-season under their belt, that stabilises.
Nick Larkey gets help. For the last two years, he’s been double-teamed and still averaging around 2.5 goals per game. In a better side with more inside 50 entries and midfield service, he can push for a 60 to 70 goal season. Give him a proper second tall and an active small crumbing crew, and the forward line is dangerous.
3. Coaching, Culture, and Continuity
2026 will be Alastair Clarkson’s third full year at the helm. That’s when his systems usually take hold.
Look at Hawthorn from the late 2000s. They bottomed out in 2004 and 2005, and by 2007 were winning 13+ games. He builds fast when the list has the legs. His teams play structured, aggressive, modern footy, and when they click, they dominate the territory game. That’s where North improves massively in 2026 - controlling forward-half time and limiting opposition runouts.
Add to that the leadership overhaul. Bringing in Luke Parker (yes, over 30 but still elite at contest work and voice) in 2025 was genius. He won’t play 22 games, but he’ll guide the midfield and help change the standards. Simpkin, LDU, and Corr are growing into proper leaders too. The culture is flipping.
Also, for the first time in years, North will enter a season with a stable list, minimal off-field drama, and clarity in coaching roles. That alone adds 2 to 3 wins from sheer continuity.
4. The Numbers Say It’s Doable
Historically, teams can leap from bottom 4 to top 4 with the right mix of youth, cohesion, and health. Examples:
North in 2026 will have:
5. The Fixture Will Help
There’s every chance North gets a soft draw based on 2025’s ladder finish. That means more games against the Tigers, Bombers, Eagles, and Demons (all in transition), and fewer double-up games against powerhouse clubs like Brisbane or Carlton.
If North opens the season 4 and 2, belief grows. Young teams ride momentum more than veterans. Get to 8 and 4 at the bye, and the back half just needs to be a steady 8 and 2 finish to crack 16 wins.
That may seem fanciful, but if they win the close games they lost last year, add a couple of 50/50 upsets, and protect their home games, it's right there.
6. What Has to Go Right
Let’s not sugarcoat it. This doesn’t happen by accident. North needs:
But honestly, every finals team needs those things. The difference is that North now has the list profile and system to actually cash them in.
7. Final Word
This isn’t just blind hope. It’s not about emotion or tribalism.
This is about a team that’s been through the worst of a rebuild, loaded up on elite talent, found its coach, hardened its culture, and now enters a season with the rare combo of:
And if everything goes right, they’re a 16-win, top 4, genuine threat.
Bookmark it.
A lot of people will scoff at the idea of North Melbourne not only making the eight, but becoming a 16-win team in 2026. But if you zoom in on the right stats, trends, and growth curves, it’s not as insane as it sounds. The ingredients are all there. This is how and why it happens.
1. 2025 Was Ugly, But Misleading
North went 5–17 in 2025. Finished 16th. That’s the headline. But let’s unpack it.
First: the margin of losses. North lost seven games by under 20 points. They were competitive in large stretches of matches, especially in first halves. Second halves killed them because of inexperience, fatigue, and lack of depth.
Second: the list profile. The average age in 2025 was 23.6, second youngest in the league. The average games played per player was around 59. That’s three seasons away from a true prime. So when people say “they’re miles off,” they’re ignoring the normal curve of development. Most AFL players peak around 24 to 27 years of age, which aligns almost perfectly with this team’s trajectory in 2026 and 2027.
Third: there were green shoots. Harry Sheezel is already elite by disposal and intercept standards. George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher showed signs of becoming contested beasts. Charlie Comben started to look like a genuine ruck/forward hybrid. Paul Curtis is quietly becoming one of the best pressure forwards in the league. Larkey still kicks goals despite zero support. And more talent is coming in.
2. The Breakout Year Is Lined Up
For a 16-win season to happen, everything needs to click. But North has the levers.
The midfield is where the leap starts. Wardlaw and McKercher become full-time A-grade mids. Simpkin and LDU settle into high-impact support roles. And there's now depth - the likes of Dylan Stephens, Powell, and even Bergman rotating through.
Sheezel moves permanently into the midfield or becomes a full-blown half-back quarterback, delivering elite kicks forward 50. His disposal average in 2025 was over 27 a game, top 10 in the league. He’s already there. He just needs better targets.
Comben steps up and becomes a legitimate ruck-forward threat. When he’s healthy, his contested marking and ground-level follow-up are elite. His 2025 numbers (12 disposals, 20 hitouts per game) came from only partial time on ground. Ramp that up and he’s a 30+ hitout, 1.5-goal-a-game guy.
The defence hardens. Wil Dawson, Aidan Corr, and potentially a returning Griffin Logue give North size and structure. Their issue in 2025 was late-game fadeouts, not skill but composure and depth. With another pre-season under their belt, that stabilises.
Nick Larkey gets help. For the last two years, he’s been double-teamed and still averaging around 2.5 goals per game. In a better side with more inside 50 entries and midfield service, he can push for a 60 to 70 goal season. Give him a proper second tall and an active small crumbing crew, and the forward line is dangerous.
3. Coaching, Culture, and Continuity
2026 will be Alastair Clarkson’s third full year at the helm. That’s when his systems usually take hold.
Look at Hawthorn from the late 2000s. They bottomed out in 2004 and 2005, and by 2007 were winning 13+ games. He builds fast when the list has the legs. His teams play structured, aggressive, modern footy, and when they click, they dominate the territory game. That’s where North improves massively in 2026 - controlling forward-half time and limiting opposition runouts.
Add to that the leadership overhaul. Bringing in Luke Parker (yes, over 30 but still elite at contest work and voice) in 2025 was genius. He won’t play 22 games, but he’ll guide the midfield and help change the standards. Simpkin, LDU, and Corr are growing into proper leaders too. The culture is flipping.
Also, for the first time in years, North will enter a season with a stable list, minimal off-field drama, and clarity in coaching roles. That alone adds 2 to 3 wins from sheer continuity.
4. The Numbers Say It’s Doable
Historically, teams can leap from bottom 4 to top 4 with the right mix of youth, cohesion, and health. Examples:
- Brisbane went from 5 wins in 2018 to 16 in 2019 with the same coach and a young list that matured.
- Melbourne went from 9 wins in 2020 to 17 in 2021, with a similar midfield trajectory.
- Carlton won 8 in 2021, then 16 in 2022.
North in 2026 will have:
- A midfield with 5 players aged 21 to 25 with 50 to 100 games each
- A Coleman-contending forward in Larkey, now supported by a deeper cast
- One of the best half-back weapons in Sheezel
- A coach who’s won 4 flags, with a system that’s already bedding in
- Depth through smart drafting and trading (Stephens, Parker, Pink, Dawson, Drury, etc.)
5. The Fixture Will Help
There’s every chance North gets a soft draw based on 2025’s ladder finish. That means more games against the Tigers, Bombers, Eagles, and Demons (all in transition), and fewer double-up games against powerhouse clubs like Brisbane or Carlton.
If North opens the season 4 and 2, belief grows. Young teams ride momentum more than veterans. Get to 8 and 4 at the bye, and the back half just needs to be a steady 8 and 2 finish to crack 16 wins.
That may seem fanciful, but if they win the close games they lost last year, add a couple of 50/50 upsets, and protect their home games, it's right there.
6. What Has to Go Right
Let’s not sugarcoat it. This doesn’t happen by accident. North needs:
- Injury luck. They can’t afford another season with multiple key players out at once.
- Breakouts. At least two young players - Wardlaw, Comben, Curtis, etc. need to jump a level.
- Recruitment to stick. One or two off-season pickups must make immediate impact.
But honestly, every finals team needs those things. The difference is that North now has the list profile and system to actually cash them in.
7. Final Word
This isn’t just blind hope. It’s not about emotion or tribalism.
This is about a team that’s been through the worst of a rebuild, loaded up on elite talent, found its coach, hardened its culture, and now enters a season with the rare combo of:
- Low expectations
- High upside
- A system in place
- A list ready to peak
And if everything goes right, they’re a 16-win, top 4, genuine threat.
Bookmark it.
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