Strategy Why take Will Ashcroft with the first pick?

[JasRulz63]

Agreed, teams need to look after their own interests. So that's either weakening another teams draft if possible on F/S stuff, teams trading picks to exploit this stuff etc, spliting picks, trading for futures etc.

But with Brisbane in a window, and getting the best kid who can play straight away, GWS have rocks in their head if they don't bid and make them pay.

I do wonder if there was any under the table agreement with Brisbane trading their most valuable asset away in the recent draft period (pick 15) to GWS.

I almost think in some cases the biggest benefit is that the player you take doesn't get the pressure of the no. 1 pick.

 

[perplexed]

Doing some quick maths on Brisbane's current picks. If the bid for Ashcroft comes at 1 Brisbane have enough future picks to match a bid on Fletcher at 14. But at 13 the deficit would be too big to match unless they live trade in some more points.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Not really as GWS can simply say "we want a key forward, not a midfielder"

They can not really, as i have heard JMac say this and every other one say this from other clubs, the cliche (we pick best available)

 

[bungalow_bill]

We all know GWS traded to pick 1 for Cadman so it's unlikely they bid on Will, and no one will bat an eye if they don't

Much more likely North will bid with 2 or 3

 

[hilly]

We all know GWS traded to pick 1 for Cadman so it's unlikely they bid on Will, and no one will bat an eye if they don't

Much more likely North will bid with 2 or 3

I reckon pick 2 would be fairly short odds. Can't see GWS bothering.

 

[blueiris]

I reckon pick 2 would be fairly short odds. Can't see GWS bothering.

Agree North interviewed him 5 times this year apparently last time was at the Combine

 

[sherrif]

We all know GWS traded to pick 1 for Cadman so it's unlikely they bid on Will, and no one will bat an eye if they don't

Much more likely North will bid with 2 or 3

They have every right to make a bid at 1 to make sure Brisbane doesn't get an even bigger advantage than they have already with a number one draft pick going to their club in exchange for a cluster of picks that are speculative in most drafts. It's a sports competition and afl teams should be against giving an unfair advantage over their competition. Plus in the nearly impossible situation that Brisbane didn't match I very much doubt they would be disappointed with Ashcroft playing for his first contract anyway. He would have huge trade value after every season of his contract anyway and that trading could net GWS a better forward prospect than Cadman. Ashcroft is the number 1 prospect in this draft by a fair margin. Him and Sam Walsh are the most complete mids entering the draft system in recent times.

 

[sherrif]

Doing some quick maths on Brisbane's current picks. If the bid for Ashcroft comes at 1 Brisbane have enough future picks to match a bid on Fletcher at 14. But at 13 the deficit would be too big to match unless they live trade in some more points.

If your hypothetical situation happened with a bid at 14 and not 13 then Brisbane next draft would get wiped out too. Their first pick in next years draft is currently a Geelong second rounder. That's a pick that's likely to be late in the second round and likely to make up around half of the points difference owed unless Brisbane can obtain more points.

 

[Tristan34]

You get led the football you just have to follow a bloke around not make things happen

LoL

I thought it was one of the hardest... Why do teams struggle to find good KPD??? They are in such short supply....

 

[loki04]

Apologies for being ignorant about the intricacies of the Father/Son Rule, but can somebody please explain to me, the benefits of picking a player you know you won't be able to keep, in exchange for getting a pick, or maybe a couple of picks in a later round.

As I understand it, if GWS select Will Ashcroft, then Brisbane will take him, and in compensation GWS will have the next pick and a pick in the mid-30s.

Wouldn't it be better, to just take the 2nd player with the original pick, and boost his confidence and self belief by showing how much you believe in him? Or does the opportunity to get another player in Round 2 or Round 3 trump this?

You are being taken at pick 2 how is that confidence shattered???

Also maybe it somewhat relieves the pressure valve of the player and also gives him a point to prove (extra motivation).

Being pick 1 is relatively meaningless. Most pick 1s aren't even the best players in their draft pool half the time not even top 3.

 

[Hoges64]

We all know GWS traded to pick 1 for Cadman so it's unlikely they bid on Will, and no one will bat an eye if they don't

They certainly ******* should.

There's every chance that Cadman will be great, but barring injury Ashcroft will be a genuine superstar from day one for 15 years, and is the clear no. 1 pick in the draft by the length of the straight.

There is no doubt in my mind that if GWS don't bid on Ashcroft at 1 then a secret wink, wink, nudge, nudge handshake agreement of draft tampering has ABSOLUTELY occurred. But we also know that the AFL is the biggest pussified organisation in world sports, and we couldn't possibly have a scandal that would ruin their agreements with Betfair and Sportsbet and Bet365 and PointsBet and NedsBet and CrownBet and Ladbrokes and JimmyBet and BetNation and BlueBet and PalmerBet and TAB and UniBet and PickleBet and BetStar and MidasBet and PlayUp and MoneyBall and WinnersBet and Booki and BoomBet and TexBet and VicBet and GetSetBet and SwiftBet and BBet and DraftStars and Southern Cross Bet and WishBet and Punt123 and You Better, You Bet and BetBarn and BudgetBet and OKEBet and BetBetBet and BossBet and RamBet and BetFlux and ZBet and TrackBet and LynchBet and Foxcatcher Betting and UPCoz and MintBet and BetGold and Bet Deck and Betr and WeBet and RiverBet and WannaBet and LucasBet and DaveBet and BetEasy and PlaceaBet and RivalBet and ClassicBet and MadBookie and BetM and BeazaBet and TomBet and ColossalBet and PlayON and BaggyBet and PendleburyBet (yep, its an actual betting agency)

Fun fact: One of these is not a betting agency. I'll also be shocked if I didn't double up somewhere.

 

[11kgm]

LoL

I thought it was one of the hardest... Why do teams struggle to find good KPD??? They are in such short supply....

Liam Jones failed forward good defender
Laverde
McCartin x 2

 

[royboy2]

I think the real logical way for the draft to go would be

Pick 1 - GWS - Aaron Cadman - Give the kid the Glory and $10K

Pick 2 - North Melbourne - Harry Sheezel
Pick 3 - North Melbourne - George Wardlaw - These North boys need to know they were wanted not an afterthought so they stay

Ashcroft can go at 4 Or 5, I'd love to see the Gold Coast try and pick him

 

[PAFC_FOREVER]

There is no doubt in my mind that if GWS don't bid on Ashcroft at 1 then a secret wink, wink, nudge, nudge handshake agreement of draft tampering has ABSOLUTELY occurred.

Or maybe they just rate their guy 1 and want to show him the love?

Enough with the conspiracy crap.

 

[PAFC_FOREVER]

I think the real logical way for the draft to go would be

I think 3rd pick he gets bid on. North could explain it easy to their 2. Though I'd respect North alot if they didn't bid personally and showed their 2 choices the love, given JHF.

No way I see GWS doing it.

 

[Hoges64]

Or maybe they just rate their guy 1 and want to show him the love?

Enough with the conspiracy crap.

Horseshit.

Anyone who sees Cadman as a bigger talent than Ashcroft is Matt Rendell-bad.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The main reason you take him pick 1 is to relieve the pressure/burden on Cadman.. Sure the extra 50k bonus would be nice, but the added pressure of being a #1 pick instead of a #2 pick is worth way more than that.. Look at the scrutiny Jamarra Ugle Hagen has copped v Tilthorpe.. JUH was expected to impact immediately yet Tilthorpe has been allowed to develop at a natural progression without all the media hype.

The same could be said for Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

22

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

v Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

 

[sherrif]

Yes I know. They did side deals with The Dogs and Collingwood in exchange for not bidding, allowing them to move up the order. They turned picks 42, 47, 48 and two future thirds into 32, 36, 57 and a future third.

Yep those deals made no sense at the time.

 

[Orange crush]

The main reason you take him pick 1 is to relieve the pressure/burden on Cadman.. Sure the extra 50k bonus would be nice, but the added pressure of being a #1 pick instead of a #2 pick is worth way more than that.. Look at the scrutiny Jamarra Ugle Hagen has copped v Tilthorpe.. JUH was expected to impact immediately yet Tilthorpe has been allowed to develop at a natural progression without all the media hype.

The same could be said for Matt Rowell v Noah Anderson

50k bonus??

 

[PAFC_FOREVER]

Horseshit.

Anyone who sees Cadman as a bigger talent than Ashcroft is Matt Rendell-bad.

Horseshit is your conspiracy wink wink BS

It's not just about talent.

 

[emblurr]

 

[Apex36]

Apologies for being ignorant about the intricacies of the Father/Son Rule, but can somebody please explain to me, the benefits of picking a player you know you won't be able to keep, in exchange for getting a pick, or maybe a couple of picks in a later round.

As I understand it, if GWS select Will Ashcroft, then Brisbane will take him, and in compensation GWS will have the next pick and a pick in the mid-30s.

Wouldn't it be better, to just take the 2nd player with the original pick, and boost his confidence and self belief by showing how much you believe in him? Or does the opportunity to get another player in Round 2 or Round 3 trump this?

To avoid the inevitable embarrassment that North Melbourne endured this year by selecting JHF instead of Daicos.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Horseshit is your conspiracy wink wink BS

It's not just about talent.

Of course it isn't. A lot of tin foil hat folk around

 

[JasRulz63]

A Giant dilemma: What GWS are weighing up with the No.1 pick

The question of whether to bid on Will Ashcroft may not be dominating the Giants’ planning, but in the years to come it will be their first pick who is remembered more so than the rest of their draft hand.

www.theage.com.au

This article suggests GWS will likely take Cadman at pick 1.

 

[1970crow]

I've never understood people's reluctance to making club's pay premium for father/sons NGAs, zone picks, etc

If this is a top end talent that a rival club is getting for cheap, it's borderline your responsibility to make it as difficult as possible.

If Will Ashcroft, Nic Daicos, JUH, etc are the top talents available, then make sure the club getting them is paying a top talent price.

Reckon that's just a fringe benefit. Clubs should simply select the next player on their talent order, no deviations, no strategy, just call the name of the next best player according to your research.