Remove this Banner Ad

Opinion Why we can and can't win the flag

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

I'd really like to flesh out the pros and cons of our side and our premiership readiness, and am hoping to hear what others have to say on this specific aim.

What are you bullish about, and what are you scared of with this aim in mind?

These are some of my thoughts.

1. Injuries/high performance. There, it's out there. It will happen to many teams. Some can overcome, some can't. It's an unknown so I don't want to speculate on it anymore. It is neither a pro or a con at this stage, with maybe a slight shadow still hanging over the club until we show otherwise.

2. Team unity/motivation. We seem like an incredibly united team so that is a huge positive. We have had form lapses during each of the past few seasons, end of 22, mid 23 and end of 24. Having to go down to the Curnow property to bond is not something we should be relying on. We need to unlock how to fight through those gruelling months and grind out those wins. What happens between the ears is a huge worry for me, because we have yet to prove we can overcome these lapses.

3. Game Plan. Once a huge con for me, it is now a pro. Voss has shown he can be flexible and will try things. Hollands and Silvagni to defence, Kemp and Williams up forward, Docherty midfield. These are all things that have happened or are happening under Voss. This shows that he has decided on how he wants us to play, and is prepared to change the side around to fit the plan. It has been a long while since we have had the luxury to have the players to fit into the game plan, rather than having to come up with a game plan to fit the limitations of the list. Yeah, we are a contest side. We also intend to intercept and rebound, and have a mixture of marking players and ground ball players. If we can somehow be the team that can create mismatches for our opposition to deal with, as opposed to always being the team that gets exposed by mismatches, we are well on our way. We have the players, we just need the tactics to make it happen. Imagine us being able to clear out our 50 and leave Charlie or Harry one on one.

4. Team. Do we have the players to win a premiership? We have the elite talent to win a flag, but do we have all the ingredients? Midfield pace, a strong 2nd key defender, and pace at ground level up forward, were our big issues last season. Pundits say we addressed the defensive need with Haynes. I disagree. He will be an asset to our defence for sure, but a key defender he is not. Nor is McGovern. I am encouraged by Silvagni's recent training form down there. For a guy who is a similar height to Gov and Haynes, he plays taller as we know. He lacks the pace of Lewis Young, but he will match opponents for strength, he rarely gets outmarked, and he slays most opponents for footy smarts. It is imperative that someone stands up in this role to help Weitering. Aside from that one query, we have the best spine in the game. Weitering, De Koning, McKay and Curnow is mouth-watering.

Have we addressed the midfield pace issue? Yes and no. Jagga Smith is a point of difference. He is quick, evasive and he can find the ball. He is something we did not have, but he's a first year player. We need more. Docherty being back does not address the pace issue, although I was suitably impressed at how quick he was in the training sprints I saw. I don't think of him as a particularly quick player though. We have seen glimpses of Motlop at clearances in game sims, and Orazio is getting into the midfield a little bit, and he seems to have gained all of his pace back winning the sprints easily. Who would have thought that Fantasia might be the missing ingredient this year?

I was worried about our forward line pace, but the training form of Williams, Motlop and Fantasia has been impressive. They all seem fit and at their physical best, and if that holds, we will be seriously dangerous.

Conclusion: I still see potential gaps and a lot is dependent on availability as to whether we can adequately plug these gaps.

5. Depth. I'm quietly optimistic here. All of our guys are plugged into how we want to play and we have some cover for most key spots in the team. We have inside midfield depth. We have some halfback depth. We have some extra leadership down back if the unthinkable happens back there. We have ruck depth that I trust to an extent. The only thing we lack is genuine key forward depth, but we do have players who can pinch hit if need be. I see our depth as a major pro now, and I am expecting to see some good things from our VFL team.

6. Other teams. Some teams will improve, some will decline. We need to improve to stay ahead of the curve.

I will still be scared of the youth and vigour of the Hawks and they should improve. Brisbane will be formidable again and we don't want to play any more finals at the Gabba. The Crows are a bit of a bogey side and they will be a finals contender. Fremantle will be dangerous.

Honestly though, it isn't really who the side is that can beat us, it is what the side is. What type of side threatens us the most? Will we get them on an up or a down, with their best side, or with key pieces missing. A lot of luck can go into the timing of these things.

I think we can challenge for a flag. I think we have 90% of a premiership side and it will come down to the success of a few moves, and our mental strength as to whether we can bridge that 10%.
 
Game Plan
I'm generally positive and of the view we are good enough and with the rub of the green in terms of injury & suspension etc we'll be right up there.

One concern however is if what we saw from Hawks last year with Hokball will be a trend other clubs will adapt to and Hawks themselves will have natural list development.

We tend to have a "stick to our process" mantra and I think there's a risk we could get left behind here. Hopefully we're across it and the new fitness focus will have us prepared for it.
 
can our team dominate an opponent when we have them?
Will MC rotate players to rest them or will they rely on form or stick to their favorites?
Will our mids stream upto/into the F50 and goal? Taking the heat off our forwards and sowing doubt in to the defenders?
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

Why we can? Look at 2024 either side of the bye. Destroyed the Cats who missed the GF by 10 points. What happened in the last 8 rounds (and one final) is another story. So what was the difference? Injuries. In particular the ankle injury to Curnow, who played through it for a while, but was a shadow of his former self. We get a good run this year with injuries, and no reason why we can't go all the way. We have strength across the park, a great spine, and what could become the dominant midfield in the comp.

Why we can't? (1) Remains to be seen whether bringing in Inness and letting go several of the perennial injured can make a difference. But we need to keep our injury list in single digits through the season. (2) We need to show that we can't be taken to the cleaners by teams with inside run (Sydney Rd 10 2024). (3) Our bottom 6 - perhaps due to injuries in 2024, where this group was often players in the 30-36 range on our list, but too often, too much was left to too few.
 
1/ Injuries/ High performance - Always need a touch of luck and need to be primed to hit the finals. Getting rid of guys who we hoped would make a difference when they were available is a huge step forward. Creating players who can step in when needed and perform at an acceptable level is key.

2/ Unity seems good? Motivation, how can they not be inspired to be the best side in the competition especially with Cripps leading them. Why else do you play at that level, they have to realise they are close?

3/ Game plan - Still a big question mark for me. I know he has started throwing players around, big tick, but our kick outs at the back end of last year were terrible, forward 50 pressure died off and having other options forward, which we now have, should upset the oppositions 4 on 2 with Harry and Charlie. Do we alter our GP slightly pending on who we are playing?

4/ Team - Yes, I feel we have the players to win a premiership, do we have a perfect team, No. Do all premiership teams have a perfect team, no and yes. It's perfect on the day. There are and always will be players who have a great season and play in a premiership but disappear off into the sunset.

5/ Depth -Yes. We have some elite players and we will never replace them like for like, but if the other 17 on the field are playing good football, the incoming person only has to perform at their best ability and the engine keeps moving forward.

6/ Other teams - Every team aims to improve, our goal is to play the best we can and field the most in form players when we can. Expose the oppositions weaknesses and play to our strengths. Fremantle, Hawks, Sydney and Adelaide all came in with game plans to beat us last season and all took a different approach to it.
 
Nice topic ODN

My why Carlton may not be good enough issues are

1. Smith increases the midfield IQ by a lot - which is good because the Carlton team has shown that it isn't overly endowed with footy smarts I still see more a collection of players than a well oiled team playing to a well drilled game plan that can change according to circumstances and opponent.
2. The match winning players that need to stay on the park are Curnow / Williams and Fantasia in the forward line - Fantasia is a genuine big game match winner so it is all about his body and fitness we need his smarts in the forward line and his speed - motlop and Durdin are yoiung kids who dont have the moves by comparison - fill ins based on exposed form.
3. Back up to Weitering - still a huge missing link.
4. Cripps has to fit into the midfield not the rest of the midfield fitting into Cripps - I'd like to see him play rotating forward 25% of the time and drag his tagger to a place of danger instead of a nullifying positive for the opposition. Walsh/Cerra/Hewett have to be able to win the midfield battle sans Cripps.
5. Voss and his crew of learners. not convinced about Voss's decision making re team selections fitness versus favourites is an issue which segues into a game plan and execution that needs major overhaul.

I think we have the list to contend - but that is a along way off winning close games despite circumstance or just as importantly, absolutely destroying weaker teams and respecting percentage - it will be a close competition. Until the team learns to bury opposition - they wont have developed the killer instinct and mongrel required to win big finals.

Hawthorn round 3 and then Collingwood round 4 - that is if the team hardens up enough to manage Norfs sniping in round 2. If it isnt a 7+ goal win in round 1 - questions have to be asked.
 
One thing that I'd like to mention is that we've been able to keep a core group together for an extended period of time. Yes, we've added players here and there to address certain needs but for the most part we have kept a similar spine and midfield group for a long while now.

Recent history shows many teams that have had gone from being a contender, followed up with a poor year or two, only for that group of players to take them to a flag. See Geelong 04,05 then a poor 06 followed by a flag in 07. Melbourne 2018, followed by a poor 2019 then premiers in 2021. Richmond 2013-15 followed by a poor 2016 then a flag in 2017.

13 of Richmond's 2017 premiership side experienced a 113 point thumping against Sydney in the last round of 2016.

I see our current group bearing similarities to those teams listed above. I believe we've gone through our poor year and we're ready to make a charge in 2025.
 
Being locked in for longer than any team

No significant injuries (continuity in the starting 22)

Mental toughness (grunt, a bit of see you next Tuesday)

Killer instinct (finish off sides, pump them)

Losses will happen - bounce back straght away


CON-SIS-TEN-CY

Cant start the world on fire and fizzle out or start low then chase our tails.
 
Why we can win
List is ready - loaded at every line with plenty of depth.
Player leadership and investment towards success is evident.
Like all teams, can't lose key players for long periods of the season.

Why we can't win
Getting ahead of ourselves and not processing one game/week at a time by doing what is required.
 
Mental fortitude is our greatest obstacle... which is unfortunate because Vossy and the team he captained had it in abundance.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Need to win enough games to put yourself in a position to play finals, then need to be fit and firing at the right time.
In recent years the eventual winners have looked anything but champs at certain times of the season. The Brions and Sydney should probably have not got past GWS last year in the finals.

Oh. And we need to avoid playing a sudden death final in Brisbane.

All these things need almost more luck than planning.

Just win **** yas.
 
My biggest concern is the gameplan. Yes, we had injuries in the second half of last season, but what we dished up week after week was not winning football.

I need to see on-field evidence that our HB drive, midfield mix and forward entry issues have been resolved to understand if we’re a contender or making up the numbers.
 
My biggest concern is Voss adapting when we are faced with adversity and the other reliant on our guns , one of curnow , Cripps , weitering or tdk go down we are screwed.
I do believe we can win it all if we don’t get any injuries to our core , I do believe our list is top 2-3 …surely we get some luck and win it
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

The midfield will make or break us.

If Cripps has a dip in form and Cerra can't overcome his hammy issues we will be in serious trouble. As promising as Jagga is, he's in his first season...

Walsh questionable whether he can get himself right, then there's George who will give his all, but isn't very damaging.

On the flip side, if Cripps can keep going, Cerra and Walsh overcome health issues and Jagga only needs to provide the cherry on top... then we will def have a shot at the flag.
 
Nice topic ODN

My why Carlton may not be good enough issues are

1. Smith increases the midfield IQ by a lot - which is good because the Carlton team has shown that it isn't overly endowed with footy smarts I still see more a collection of players than a well oiled team playing to a well drilled game plan that can change according to circumstances and opponent.
2. The match winning players that need to stay on the park are Curnow / Williams and Fantasia in the forward line - Fantasia is a genuine big game match winner so it is all about his body and fitness we need his smarts in the forward line and his speed - motlop and Durdin are yoiung kids who dont have the moves by comparison - fill ins based on exposed form.
3. Back up to Weitering - still a huge missing link.
4. Cripps has to fit into the midfield not the rest of the midfield fitting into Cripps - I'd like to see him play rotating forward 25% of the time and drag his tagger to a place of danger instead of a nullifying positive for the opposition. Walsh/Cerra/Hewett have to be able to win the midfield battle sans Cripps.
5. Voss and his crew of learners. not convinced about Voss's decision making re team selections fitness versus favourites is an issue which segues into a game plan and execution that needs major overhaul.

I think we have the list to contend - but that is a along way off winning close games despite circumstance or just as importantly, absolutely destroying weaker teams and respecting percentage - it will be a close competition. Until the team learns to bury opposition - they wont have developed the killer instinct and mongrel required to win big finals.

Hawthorn round 3 and then Collingwood round 4 - that is if the team hardens up enough to manage Norfs sniping in round 2. If it isnt a 7+ goal win in round 1 - questions have to be asked.
Norf's sniping won't happen until Good Friday, but I get your point.....
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Opinion Why we can and can't win the flag

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top