AFL Grand Final Why We Will Win

[Next Waiting]

Melbourne have the form-line this year to deserve to be favourites.
We have three reasons we can win though:

- Martin
- Dunkley
- Treloar

None of those guys have faced Melbourne this year. We're a better side with all three of them playing.

&
- Gardner
- VDM
- Wood

6 players they haven't got a look at all year

Beveridge: Pawn to D4
Goodwin:

 

[Hobdog]

I’m not 100% buying the idea that a team that has historically let people down, got together for a chat and said: “hey who else is sick of being sh*t?” and they’re now a totally transformed unbeatable team. There’s got to be a little bit of the Dees still lurking within the Dees.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Angak]

Watching the replay of the Port game and our tactical approach in regards to Aliir Aliir

21

Aliir Aliir

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.2

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

240.9

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

158.4

3star

has been undersold by the media as purely a defensive role by Schache. Don't get me wrong Schache played the best game of his career and you could see his confidence grow as the game went on. I'm so rapt for him. However what a lot of teams do when kicking inside thier F50 is avoid kicking towards the interceptor wheather it be Lever or Aliir. What we did against Port was the complete opposite. We kicked it on top the head whichever forward was being marked by Aliir. What was the benefit of doing this ?

Firstly, it took away the key strength of Allir which is using his athleticism to come across and impact the contest either by a mark or spoil.

Secondly, this tactic utilises the strength of Naughton. Whilst the ball is being kicked on Aliir/Schache's head and as they tussle for the contest it allowed Naughton to use his athleticism to jump/come across to impact the contest. As evidenced by his first flying mark near the goal square.

Thirdly, a lot of Port scores are generated by Aliir taking the intercepted mark and playing on to create a scoring opportunity. This was made much more difficult given our F50 entries underpind by an excellent tactical approach.

Who knows what Bevo will throw up against the Dees but if we nullify Lever's impact they way we did against Aliir it will go along way to winning the game.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I’m not 100% buying the idea that a team that has historically let people down, got together for a chat and said: “hey who else is sick of being sh*t?” and they’re now a totally transformed unbeatable team. There’s got to be a little bit of the Dees still lurking within the Dees.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

People look at the win against Geelong in the last round and marvel at what a win it was, but they don’t stop to consider why Melbourne were over 40 points down, or why they lost to Adelaide and Collingwood.

They’ve been terrific, but basically they’ve only been as good as Sydney of ‘16 and Crows of ‘17. Brisbane (and us) had better percentage.

They deserve the favourites tag, but they are certainly not unstoppable.

 

[Anja_Nees]

A follow up point re the bye.

Since it was introduced:
- both teams who won in week one in 2016 were booted, and both grand finalists played every week
- Richmond got flogged in 2018 after the second bye
- Collingwood were tripped up by GWS after the second bye
- Both grand finalists in 2020 lost in week one, and knocked over the week one winners after the second bye

It’s a stark contrast to the previous five or six years, where the grand finalists were almost all week one winners.

I’ll put this a different way.

Before the bye (2010-2015), how many sides that got one week off lost the prelim? One.

After the bye (2016-2021), how many sides that got two weeks off lost the prelim? Seven.

 

[hoianbulldog]

Fast forward to 1:20 of that clip.

Bont kicks a goal against Adelaide to give us a lead of 5.1.31 to 0.0.0.

Bont's first goal against Port Adelaide last weekend gave us a lead of 5.1.31 to 0.0.0.

Nice pickup rainman.

 

[dogwatch]

I’ll put this a different way.

Before the bye (2010-2015), how many sides that got one week off lost the prelim? One.

After the bye (2016-2021), how many sides that got two weeks off lost the prelim? Seven.

Interesting stat.

My take on it is that the bye has evened things out somewhat, which makes it a good thing.
For sides that typically have finished top 4 or top 6 (those that make a PF after playing two successive finals) to win only 1 out of 12 PFs from 2010-2015 looks anomalous to me. I'd expect about 5 wins out of 12.

The bye is giving all sides in the eight a chance to show their best form. Prior to 2016 it was tipping the scales heavily toward whoever won their QF.

The flag is mostly still going to the sides who finish 1, 2 or 3 though, so it's not like it's turning form on its head.

 

[hoianbulldog]

&
- Gardner
- VDM
- Wood

6 players they haven't got a look at all year

Beveridge: Pawn to D4
Goodwin:

Luke played 2 first gamers when we played them first up in top of the table game.

He has been frkn with people's heads all year.

We got this one boys and girls

 

[Anja_Nees]

Interesting stat.

My take on it is that the bye has evened things out somewhat, which makes it a good thing.
For sides that typically have finished top 4 or top 6 (those that make a PF after playing two successive finals) to win only 1 out of 12 PFs from 2010-2015 looks anomalous to me. I'd expect about 5 wins out of 12.

The bye is giving all sides in the eight a chance to show their best form. Prior to 2016 it was tipping the scales heavily toward whoever won their QF.

The flag is mostly still going to the sides who finish 1, 2 or 3 though, so it's not like it's turning form on its head.

I think that’s right, although 7/12 means more than half of week one winners have been bundled out. Not a huge sample, but you’d think more than half should make a grand final.

Generally I think it levels the playing field, but two weeks off probably does cause a loss in conditioning.

It’s interesting - Jack Riewoldt said he’d prefer Melbourne’s scratch match this weekend to our hard training session. I think we’ve gone that way because a week off (particularly after a hard run) is no big deal, but Melbourne want to try to replicate a game as best they can.