Expansion Will 2020 be the Suns best ever year

[NoobPie]

Fair enough points on the Commission side.

i still think that the concessions this year were over the top and overly generous.

When they first entered they were given a decent start up package, compared to Fremantle,Port Adelaide and Adelaide in their start up years in the AFL era. compare them to Fremantle who was also poor, when they first started, the original start up packages should have been enough to have sustained them. The appearance of these latest concessions is because it is not in an AFL heartland.

I agree it is not ideal and certainly they wouldn't have gotten the same level of concessions if they weren't an expansion club. Even Brisbane didn't get anything like the same concessions despite being in a similarly parlous state a few years back. Brisbane at least had a history

 

[Bazza97]

Don't think it will be their best year, but they should improve to win at least 5-6 games I'd say. Might avoid the wooden spoon, but they'll still be near the bottom in 2020 I reckon.

 

[Jez1974]

Maybe in 2021, still will have a very young team next year.

Perhaps 2030

 

[Damon_3388]

I don't think that extra 18- and 19-year-olds are necessarily going to drive them up the ladder in 2020. It bodes well for their future, though.

They've still clearly got the worst/most mediocre list of players in the league in that prime age group (25-29 years of age, 1991-1995 born) going into 2020:

Rory Thompson
Anthony Miles
Hugh Greenwood
Jordan Murdoch
Sam Day
Jarrod Witts
David Swallow
George Horlin-Smith
Jack Hombsch
Brandon Ellis
Alex Sexton
Sam Collins
Sean Lemmens
Nick Holman
Chris Burgess

Those are the guys that should be carrying the club right now, and half of them are debateably best 22 players at AFL level.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

How is the list looking before the kids get drafted, once the draft is done its all about how these new kids are miracle workers.

Big fan of Stewy, go for it ... 2 x Q sides for the finals YES ...

Think the list is looking ok


Mids
Bowes, Fiorini, Brodie, Macpherson, Weller now 3-5 years in and should continue their trajectory up this year - needing this group to go from ok players, to genuine AFL midfielders.
Add to Swallow, Miller, Miles, Greenwood, Ellis, Witts - older edge, harder bodies
Powell, Rowell, Anderson - the talented youngsters

Forwards
Rankine, King should play all games if available and add some x-factor to the team.
Sexton kicked 39 goals this year and should kick 40+ - I'd rather him kick 30 and involve team mates a bit more
Ainsworth - play a fair bit of mid, coming into his 4th year, needs to stay injury free but could have a big year. Was building toward back half of the year
Wright and Day other key forwards need to get more aggressive and consistent

Flanders, Holman, Corbett, Lemmens will be within the best 30 and get games throughout the season. All contribute in their own way.

Defenders - clearly weakest area
Thompson back after all 2019, is a good lockdown full back, gives minimal drive
Collins, good interceptor - will benefit from Thompson playing on the bigger, faster forwards
Ballard, youngster who reads the play, plays with an edge.
Lukosius will play in defence - really improved last third of the year. Expect him to be more involved and influence games.
Harbrow, Hanley - older and it is showing. Need some younger small defenders to step up this year

Key defender depth: Hombsch (solid), Burgess (looked ok as a 3rd tall defender end of the year)
Smalls: Murdoch - as a half back flanker / winger, Joyce - hasn't come on after promising start, MClennan - solid without getting close to AFL debut in the NEAFL


Can't see anyone else getting games outside those 35 listed above unless injury strikes again.



If the Bowes, Fiorini, Macpherson, Brodie group improves I think we can compete in the midfield - our forward line looks pretty decent. If they don't come on and we continue to get smashed in the midfield - lights out.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

I don't think that extra 18- and 19-year-olds are necessarily going to drive them up the ladder in 2020. It bodes well for their future, though.

They've still clearly got the worst/most mediocre list of players in the league in that prime age group (25-29 years of age, 1991-1995 born) going into 2020:

Rory Thompson
Anthony Miles
Hugh Greenwood
Jordan Murdoch
Sam Day
Jarrod Witts
David Swallow
George Horlin-Smith
Jack Hombsch
Brandon Ellis
Alex Sexton
Sam Collins
Sean Lemmens
Nick Holman
Chris Burgess

Those are the guys that should be carrying the club right now, and half of them are debateably best 22 players at AFL level.

Agree,
Our improvement is going to come from the guys in the 96-98 year group becoming good AFL players.
Bowes, Fiorini, Weller, Macpherson, Wright, Ainsworth, Miller, Brodie

If the improvement comes this year, it will be on the back of these guys, not the older group.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Will be the year they get folded and moved to Tassie, so yes, best ever year coming up

I'm sure the AFL will be happy about paying out the 20 year lease on Metricon stadium.


I think this year there were 5 Queenslanders drafted this year.
Budarick from the GC
Conroy from Townsville
Coleman from Brisbane
Cumberland from the Sunshine Coast
Martyn from Brisbane

The suns have also had Bowes, Heron, Graham drafted from FNQ recently
Next year will have Alex Davies and from the 2021 draft year Austin Harris from Cairns was an U16 All Australia.

Think the AFL will be pretty happy with the extra talent coming into the game as a result of the Suns / Lions academies.

Tasmania is clearly an upgrade..

 

[Rod Stroker]

North may not ultimately get the choice. It could be relocate and stay in the AFL or...you know

They already tried to shunt us off to another state, they failed.

With Buckley and now Amarfio at the helm, we ain't moving anywhere. Plan is to reduce our presence in Tas, not increase it.

Tas doesn't want a relocated team anyway, so the constant dribble of us moving there is pointless.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Well after the previous regime (which the AFL had a hand in) ran our 'club' into the ground something needed to happen.

We got handouts, like Melbourne did, like Hawthorn did, like Carlton did for poor on field performance over an extended period of time. Honestly, I thought it was way too much, but then I am not making the decisions.

As far as handouts go, (not on the same level though) didn't your club just go cap in hand to the AFL for extra coin to keep Tim Kelly at the Cats?

Also doesn't your club go to the state government for money to add onto a stadium that gets used 9 times a year for footy?

You lads aren't earning everything through hard work either.

Hawthorn dees and Carlton all got picks in line with there ladder positions at the time nothing like the priority picks the suns have just been given I wish the suns well as it’s bad for the game having a uncompetitive club a lot of it was the afl doing something we have seen first hand in Tasmania but seing them just trade pick 11 for a 2nd rounder doesn’t fill me with confidence and Tim kelly had two autistic children if ever the afl was going to help a player this should have been the time!

 

[Damon_3388]

Agree,
Our improvement is going to come from the guys in the 96-98 year group becoming good AFL players.
Bowes, Fiorini, Weller, Macpherson, Wright, Ainsworth, Miller, Brodie

If the improvement comes this year, it will be on the back of these guys, not the older group.

It starts with Miller I reckon.



If he can make that leap to the next level, and add more attacking flair, towards becoming a 25+ disposal, 5+ clearance, 4+ inside 50, 5+ tackle mid, with closer to a 1:1 kick-to-handball ratio, and then improve further the following year, he'll be a high-quality lead midfielder.

 

[NoobPie]

They already tried to shunt us off to another state, they failed.

With Buckley and now Amarfio at the helm, we ain't moving anywhere. Plan is to reduce our presence in Tas, not increase it.

Tas doesn't want a relocated team anyway, so the constant dribble of us moving there is pointless.

I'm sure it's an annoying conversation to be had around you. No more annoying than for Suns fans I am sure but more likely to happen, still

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

It starts with Miller I reckon.

View attachment 787176

If he can make that leap to the next level, and add more attacking flair, towards becoming a 25+ disposal, 5+ clearance, 4+ inside 50, 5+ tackle mid, with closer to a 1:1 kick-to-handball ratio, and then improve further the following year, he'll be a high-quality lead midfielder.

Hmmm.. Most on our board think he is very borderline to be best 22 this year.
I included him in that list because of his birth year. But I would suggest it's Bowes, Brodie, Ainsworth, Brodie and Peter Wright that we're really needing to improve.

 

[GC2015]

Well let's look at recent examples of list builds/rebuilds which have resulted in teams skyrocketing up the ladder:

Brisbane Lions 2013, 2015-2018
2013: The trigger point with the "go-home five" forcing the Lions to commit to a rebuild. Brisbane drafted James Aish (7), Darcy Gardiner (22), Daniel McStay (25) and Lewis Taylor (28) with their top 30 picks.
2014: The Lions seemingly ditched their plan to rebuild the list when Dayne Beams requested a trade north and gave up pick 5, pick 25 and Jack Crisp for Beams. No top 30 picks were drafted to the club in 2014.
2015: Performances are getting worse and retention is still an issue with James Aish requesting a trade to Collingwood. The Lions seemingly re-committed to the rebuild in 2015 by drafting Josh Schache (2), Eric Hipwood (14) and Ben Keays (24) with top 30 picks.
2016: The Lions are still struggling on field but seem more committed to the rebuild by trading with GWS to secure two first rounders and sending Pearce Hanley to the Suns for a top 30 pick. They used their top 30 picks to recruit Hugh McCluggage (3), Jarrod Berry (17), Alex Witherden (23) and Cedric Cox (24).
2017: The Lions have officially bottomed out and retention is rearing its head again with 2015 pick 2 Josh Schache requesting a trade to the Bulldogs and former captain Tom Rockliff deciding to explore free agency. The Lions drafted Cam Rayner (1), Zac Bailey (15) and Brandon Starcevic (18) with their top 30 picks. Some positive news also came in the form of Luke Hodge coming out of retirement to sign a two-year contract with Brisbane.
2018: On field performances are drastically improving and the club has pulled off one of the biggest coups in their history by convincing Lachie Neale to make the move to Brisbane and picks 6 & 19 are duly sent to Fremantle in return. At the same time, Dayne Beams threatens to spoil the party by requesting a trade back to Collingwood. The Lions receive a late first rounder for Beams and use it to land Ely Smith (21). The club also engaged in trades to land mid-aged talent in Jarryd Lyons, Lincoln McCarthy and Marcus Adams.
2019: The club finishes second on the ladder and the young Lions have officially arrived!

The rebuild stretches back to 2013 and with the exception of 2014, the Lions built the majority of their list over a 5 year period (2013, 2015-2018).


Greater Western Sydney Giants 2011-2015
2011: The Giants are entering the league in 2012 and have a strong hand to build their list at the 2011 draft. GWS use their picks and trades involving mini draft picks to acquire Jonathan Patton (1), Stephen Coniglio (2), Dom Tyson (3), Will Hoskin-Elliott (4), Matt Buntine (5), Nick Haynes (7), Adam Tomlinson (9), Liam Sumner (10), Toby Greene (11), Taylor Adams (13) and Devon Smith (14).
2012: A poor year on field was expected by the Giants in their first season and that's exactly how 2012 played out for GWS. The Giants went back to the draft with intent to continue their list build by trading mini draft picks and access to state league players for top 30 picks. The club is also confronted with retention issues for the first time with Jack Hombsch requesting a trade to return home to Adelaide. The Giants made the most of their trades and drafted Lachie Whitfield (1), Jonathan O'Rourke (2), Lachie Plowman (3), Kristian Jaksch (12), Aidan Corr (14) and James Stewart (27) with their top 30 picks that year.
2013: The Giants failed in their pursuit of Buddy Franklin in 2013. Another poor season on field coupled with more wantaway talent such as 2011 pick 3 Dom Tyson and Josh Bruce allowed the Giants load up at the draft again and acquire Tom Boyd (1), Josh Kelly (2), Cam McCarthy (14) and Rory Lobb (29) with their top 30 picks. The club also landed mid-aged talent in Heath Shaw and Shane Mumford during the 2013 trade period.
2014: On field performances are drastically improving but 2013 pick 1 Tom Boyd is threatening to spoil the party by requesting a trade to the Bulldogs after just one year with the Giants. GWS make the most of the situation by acquiring the Dogs captain Ryan Griffen and pick 6 in the historic trade. The club drafts Jarrod Pickett (4), Caleb Marchbank (6), Paul Ahern (7), Pat McKenna (23) and Jack Steele (24) with their top 30 picks that year. Mature aged player Joel Patful also agrees to join the Giants in that off season.
2015: The Giants have taken a big step in the right direction by finishing 11th on the ladder but are still dealing with retention issues with the likes of Adam Treloar, Tom Bugg, Lachie Plowman and Liam Sumner requesting trades away from the Giants. GWS once again use the situation to their advantage by trading in more top 30 picks and draft Jacob Hopper (7), Matthew Kennedy (13) and Harrison Himmelberg (16) with their top 30 picks. The club also pulls off a big coup by landing Steve Johnson for a future 5th round pick in a trade with Geelong.
2016: The club finishes fourth on the ladder and secure a home preliminary final with their first finals win over Sydney. The young Giants have officially arrived!

It took the Giants 5 years of consistent list building and shrewd trading to arrive on the finals scene.


So, the question is, when did we (the Suns) start our list build/rebuild and have we done a good job of drafting top end talent since then? I believe the rebuild started when Dion Prestia and Jaeger O'Meara requested trades away and we were able to secure four top 10 picks in 2016 (Ainsworth, Bowes, Brodie and Scrimshaw). We continued the build in 2017 by bringing a young Lachie Weller home and drafting some potential gems in Wil Powell and Charlie Ballard. 2018 was a big year for our list build when we brought in Lukosius, Rankine and King. Now, in 2019, we're into the fourth year of the list build and we landed Rowell, Anderson, Flanders and Sharp.

History suggests the fourth year of the list build is when a team begins to really improve on field and the fifth year is when potential turns into results. So I'm inclined to say 2020 could easily be our best year ever. We should be a lot better on field than we were this year or last year.

 

[blitzer]

History suggests the fourth year of the list build is when a team begins to really improve on field and the fifth year is when potential turns into results. So I'm inclined to say 2020 could easily be our best year ever. We should be a lot better on field than we were this year or last year.

I like how you try to paint a picture as if it had been a concentrated and dedicated long term effort to build that is just about on the verge of success instead of abject list management failure leading to the AFL saying we need to hand Gold Coast a load of priority picks because they've stuffed up so bad. Its certainly a positive spin on things.

 

[GC2015]

I like how you try to paint a picture as if it had been a concentrated and dedicated long term effort to build that is just about on the verge of success instead of abject list management failure leading to the AFL saying we need to hand Gold Coast a load of priority picks because they've stuffed up so bad. Its certainly a positive spin on things.

You can look at it however you like, mate. Brisbane were in major strife in 2016-17 and were also given a priority pick but I didn't see anyone talking about that this year. All I heard was 'Well done, Brisbane. Full credit for changing your internal culture and building a highly competitive list.'

But yes. It has been a very intentional list rebuild since we lost Prestia and O'Meara in 2016. Even more so when Lynch and May decided to leave last year.

 

[Supercoach Bargain]

I hope it is. If they get much worse, they are in a world of hurt. They were good early this year, first 4-5 rounds. When you have a lot of kids, they will run out of steam. Put a line under the Ablett era and they will go OK with what they have on the list. Bottom line, they are a long term project and going nowhere. Metricon is great ground and a long weekend away in July/August is well worth the trip. Free bus from Broadbeach makes it really easy.

 

[GoGeta]

Don't expect miracles from kids.

2021-2022 should be when we see then making real strides.

 

[Jirik13]

Suns did created some depth and most players re-signed (still waiting for Fiorini). I have no problem with 35-37 players to step in the best 22. Average age 24 years 4 months. Suns have young potential guns drafted the last year and this year (King, Lukosius, Rankine, Rowell, Anderson, Flanders), mature players (Witts, Swallow, Sexton, B. Ellis, Greenwood, Day, Miller, Thomson, Harbrow, Collins, Hombsh) and the young talented core entering 3rd (Powell, Ballard), 4th (Brodie, Bowes, Ainsworth, Macpherson, Wright), 5th (Fiorini, Weller) year. This 3-5 year old core should start delivering. Suns need desperately to fix injuries issue. With better run with injuries 6-8 wins would not surprise me. 2021 should be the year of significant improvement.

Not easy to make best 22 at the moment.

 

[BigVic]

Gold Coast will definitely improve. GWS took 8 seasons to reach their first Grand Final. Suns drafted exciting young talent and will find their feet in 2020 before contending in 2-3 years time.

 

[GC2015]

Gold Coast will definitely improve. GWS took 8 seasons to reach their first Grand Final. Suns drafted exciting young talent and will find their feet in 2020 before contending in 2-3 years time.

That's a little misleading considering the Giants were a kick away from the GF in the fifth season and have consistently gone deep in finals ever since. They arrived as genuine contenders much quicker than people give them credit for. I'm sure if we were competing in preliminary finals then no one would be concerned about our on field performances.

 

[RUNVS]

No. They have drafted very well the last 2 years but those players are still very young and Gold Coast won't really be seeing their benefit until 22 years old or older.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

No. They have drafted very well the last 2 years but those players are still very young and Gold Coast won't really be seeing their benefit until 22 years old or older.

What do you think about the crop of Bowes, Fiorini, Wright, Miller, Ainsworth, Weller, Macpherson who are now in that 22year+ category?

 

[HairyO]

Retain the kids and focus on 2021. 2020 is a write off.

 

[jackenny]

Retain the kids and focus on 2021. 2020 is a write off.

Exactly. We still need to build a stronger backline, too. The only young talent we have back there is Luko (who was drafted as a forward). The rest of our backline is made up of middle-aged battlers.

 

[HairyO]

Exactly. We still need to build a stronger backline, too. The only young talent we have back there is Luko (who was drafted as a forward). The rest of our backline is made up of middle-aged battlers.

If you keep all those kids and build them properly there is no reason for not pushing up the ladder in 2021 and playing finals in 2022.

The problem is, history says it will be ballsed up.