Will Australia ever have a meaningful third major party?

[Scotland]

2016 election breakdown:

35% ALP
42% Lib/Nat/LNP/CLP
10% Greens
13% everyone else

The Greens, One Nation, Nationals if you want to call them a separate party, Family First etc. aren't viable governing parties, and with our preferential voting system it all filters back to a choice between 2.

If I had to pull an unsubstantiated number out of the air I'd say that at least 3/4 of Australians don't want to vote for trade unionists or right wing religious conservatives, but the choice ends up being one or the other. If you lined up all the ALP/Lib members on a spectrum from stickered-hat wearing trade unionist to 'the Earth is 6000 years old and WTF are dinosaurs' and just took say the 90 in the middle and ****ed off the 30 at each end you'd have something to work with.

Will we ever see a moderate party in the middle and an election where going in more than 2 parties have a chance of winning government?

 

[RupieDupie]

I want to be able to vote for an administrative period, this should be automatically imposed under a three strikes system based on cost of education, healthcare, housing, unemployment, power, declaration of war etc, once three of these exceed a reasonable cost (etc) the government is put under administration (all are sacked) until the date of the following election.

 

[Generalissimo]

A meaningful third party would have to stake a claim in the already very narrow gap in the centrist part of the political spectrum. It's no surprise that, as the Coalition lurched toward the wingnut right in recent years, the Labor party moved in to claim the center ground and it's also no surprise that the Greens have done more with the bigger space open on the left than One Nation and Bernardi's loons have done with the narrow space remaining on the right. That's also due in part to the extreme right being comically inept.

We had something approaching a credible third party years ago: the Democrats. Not in terms of voter share, but they seemed to get a disproportionate share of the balance of power. But they lost it all when, just as the Coalition began goose-stepping rightwards, they allowed themselves to become merely a rubber stamp for the Coalition. So much for "keeping the bastards honest". Do the Democrats even exist anymore?

 

[Scotland]

The Democrats were de-registered by the AEC a couple of years ago.

 

[Admiral Byng]

No. They would become a meaningful first or second party at the expense of knocking either the ALP or the Liberals down to a meaningless third party.

 

[Gough]

I can see more people moving from the traditional ALP/Liberal Party paradigm but those people will be split down the middle between between a conservative party, and the Greens which is before you even consider how Nick the Greek will go on the national stage. But I think the cap for a third party of any hue is about 20% support which is still plenty enough to wield a fair bit of influence. I have said a number of times I still think conservative side of politics is rich for the picking given the misgiving plenty hold about the long term viability of both Hanson, and Bernardi. A competently run conservative party led by a charismatic leader has a fairly decent potential base out there.

 

[Scotland]

Hanson and Bernadi are fringe loonies.

I like NXT, they seem pretty moderate. Need a catchier name, though. NXT sounds like PHON or Jaquie Lambie Network or Bob Katter Party or Derryn Hinch Justice Party and they're all nutters.

 

[Coolangatta]

I doubt it. You would have to know exactly what policy positions bother most people about ALP and what policy positions bother most people about LNP, then you would have to understand what policy positions of both parties are popular. However, even if you had a more popular policy platform than Labor and Liberal do, you would need the media coverage, funding, and enough members in your party to form government. Good luck. I would be very careful about having policies that more than 70% of Australians oppose, though. One unpopular policy could sink you. I suspect that the Greens, for example, would do better in elections if they weren't called the Greens and they didn't support asylum seekers, which is sad because seeking asylum is not illegal. Conversely, PHON would probably have more support if she didn't support a Muslim ban. I think their rhetoric about protecting Australian land, Australian assets and eliminating visa workers are views not that many Australians may agree with.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The Democrats were de-registered by the AEC a couple of years ago.

But do still exist, like any micoparty it is difficult for anyone to know that when there is no media, no money, and a group but no name on a senate paper. The only way to get noticed is to be radical or have a big name; Rise Up Australia etc get coverage from being way off "centre".

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Greens are the meaningful third party.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Greens are the meaningful third party.

They just lost their two best members.

Di Natale and Hanson-Young are pretty poor media performers. The Greens could be in some trouble here.

 

[hamohawk1]

Greens came out of this whole saga with credibility and great image. I can see the greens doing even better with a good leader

 

[Belnakor]

They just lost their two best members.

Di Natale and Hanson-Young are pretty poor media performers. The Greens could be in some trouble here.

Hansen-Young is a genuine loon. The more she appears the lower the greens vote will be.

 

[Belnakor]

Greens came out of this whole saga with credibility and great image. I can see the greens doing even better with a good leader

When they had Brown in 2010 they got 13.5 that was definitely a high point i can't see them returning to that.

 

[HairyO]

We had a genuine 3rd party until Stott Despoja killed them by taking a genuinely Centrist party down the Greens path.

Now we get extreme parties to choose from.

 

[Power Raid]

2016 election breakdown:

35% ALP
42% Lib/Nat/LNP/CLP
10% Greens
13% everyone else

The Greens, One Nation, Nationals if you want to call them a separate party, Family First etc. aren't viable governing parties, and with our preferential voting system it all filters back to a choice between 2.

If I had to pull an unsubstantiated number out of the air I'd say that at least 3/4 of Australians don't want to vote for trade unionists or right wing religious conservatives, but the choice ends up being one or the other. If you lined up all the ALP/Lib members on a spectrum from stickered-hat wearing trade unionist to 'the Earth is 6000 years old and WTF are dinosaurs' and just took say the 90 in the middle and ****** off the 30 at each end you'd have something to work with.

Will we ever see a moderate party in the middle and an election where going in more than 2 parties have a chance of winning government?

I truly hope not.

We have two parties that represent the nutbags of the left and right. Both have thought bubble policies, some even good policy, but it sits in a framework and ideology not suited to the trajection of society. Rather both seek to leverage of fear of racism and globalisation.

All we need is for both the Libs and the labs to separate themselves from lobby groups and conflicts of interest. This should form part of constitutional reform.

 

[Fire]

We have two parties that represent the nutbags of the left and right.

Wait who is meant to represent the left? Let alone the 'nutty' left?

Can you name a single nutty left policy from either major party?

 

[Mofra]

I can see more people moving from the traditional ALP/Liberal Party paradigm but those people will be split down the middle between between a conservative party, and the Greens which is before you even consider how Nick the Greek will go on the national stage. But I think the cap for a third party of any hue is about 20% support which is still plenty enough to wield a fair bit of influence. I have said a number of times I still think conservative side of politics is rich for the picking given the misgiving plenty hold about the long term viability of both Hanson, and Bernardi. A competently run conservative party led by a charismatic leader has a fairly decent potential base out there.

I can't see the greens being that party - they are pretty split internally just as Libs are, NSW (read: Lee Rhiannon) vs the rest of the Greens. Rhiannon is openly despised by the greens outside of NSW and their best performing senator (Ludlam) has resigned.

 

[Mofra]

All we need is for both the Libs and the labs to separate themselves from lobby groups and conflicts of interest. This should form part of constitutional reform.

A ban on corporate donations would go a long way to achieving that (unions would fall under this ban).
Rudd tried to divorce Labor from the unions, had no luck.
Albo is the members choice however Shorten is leader due to the unions backing their factional interests over the rank and file members.

 

[Ruck Machine]

Liberal Democrats have a bright future.

Greens don't have enough widespread appeal to move beyond the 10% mark.

 

[Reynolds Number]

Democrats would have been great if they didnt have certain politicians making stupid decisions.

 

[Power Raid]

Wait who is meant to represent the left? Let alone the 'nutty' left?

Can you name a single nutty left policy from either major party?

the nutbags are the two parties representing the 10% fringes on either side being the greens and one nation

 

[Power Raid]

A ban on corporate donations would go a long way to achieving that (unions would fall under this ban).
Rudd tried to divorce Labor from the unions, had no luck.
Albo is the members choice however Shorten is leader due to the unions backing their factional interests over the rank and file members.

I would ban all donations.

Policy and campaigning should be cost free as it should be promulgated in black and white (only) and online via a government paid for website. Add to that, these policy documents should be held in the same scrutiny as a prospectus with criminal and civil charges for misleading or factually incorrect information.

 

[Fire]

the nutbags are the two parties representing the 10% fringes on either side being the greens and one nation

Fair enough, I misunderstood your post. My bad.

 

[Rob]

Democrats would have been great if they didnt have certain politicians making stupid decisions.

The problem was that they were held accountable for what happened with the GST. Every minor party would have taken note. The lesson is don't let any of your decisions become attached to government policy.
Extreme views are best left in theory, not put into reality.