Will Carlton be the 'bolter' in 2023?

Remove this Banner Ad

Sinjin Smith

Club Legend
May 16, 2016
1,569
2,724
AFL Club
Carlton
Ill be very unpopular with my Carlton brethren for saying this but Fadge is right. We havent done or achieved anything for years and there should be no bragging until we have actually achieved a decent tangible goal. We had some nice wins this year, played some electrifying footy during periods of certain games but in the end didn't do enough.

There is still holes in the list, Vossy looks good but does he have back up plans for when the A game fails? Can we stand up to the top 4? Geelong and Brisbane pushed us aside, we took it up to Collingwood and Melbourne and had a great win against the Swans but that is inconsistent when you want to be considered contending.

We have a lot of work to do and Ill shut up until the Blues put up.
 

Monco Matt

Team Captain
Aug 15, 2009
402
857
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Storm, 49ers
Carlton has all the pieces of the premiership puzzle...........on paper. Therein lies the problem, it is on paper only.

Until Carlton stops their reliance on the few and starts spreading the workload, they will always be a thereabouts team.

So, there is that but also, they need to learn how to win games when under pressure. They give up leads often and tend to go conservative with their ball movement when teams get a run on. They need to develop confidence and trust in themselves and teammates around them to work through situations like that as a collective.

If they can spread workload and improve trust among their playing group, then they can seriously contend. If not, it might be another 9-12 or maybe a sneaky 7th to 8th. They can potentially be big improvers though. It's in their hands.
 

Kreuuuzeurns

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 25, 2013
9,563
17,368
AFL Club
Carlton
When does that insane McGovern contract end? Should be able to get someone better with that money if there’s not long left

2023Contract was front ended IIRC. Might re-sign for something similar to what he will get in 2023.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Kreuuuzeurns

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 25, 2013
9,563
17,368
AFL Club
Carlton
Could possibly be two role players off from winning a premiership so where’s the money coming from for that if McGovern was front ended?

Made a ladder prediction on another thread and think you’ll finish top 4. Think making the 8 is the pass mark.

Most of the improvement will come from within as we are still relatively young with some maturing to do.

No reason why McGovern can't play an important role for us. Looked comfortable down back this year. But I do think it's 18+ games or out the door for both he and Marchbank, probably Cuningham too.
 

Yoda_

Hall of Famer
May 6, 2007
35,055
19,258
South East Suburbs
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspurs, Melbourne Vixen
Our 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players aren't strong enough?

Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,702
9,348
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Got to love how they fob off suggestions that 'their second, third and fourth tier players aren't strong enough', but if your team misses the finals in a year where you have the Brownlow Medallist AND Coleman Medallist, wouldn't that suggest your problem is exactly that?
 

Arr0w

Hall of Famer
Nov 13, 2015
37,984
105,774
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Let me dumb it down for you


A team many tipped to be bottom 6 or so but made the top 8 is considered an overachiever or a bolter

A team many tipped to make the 8 but didn’t is considered an underachiever or slider


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure of your point, or are you talking about your club again over the last 2 years?

This is a 2023 thread, and you of all people should know better than using past events as an indication of the future
 

Arr0w

Hall of Famer
Nov 13, 2015
37,984
105,774
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Got to love how they fob off suggestions that 'their second, third and fourth tier players aren't strong enough', but if your team misses the finals in a year where you have the Brownlow Medallist AND Coleman Medallist, wouldn't that suggest your problem is exactly that?

You missed the point again, strange though as you were prolific in the Essendon v Carlton thread last preseason where Yoda claimed the Bombers were a top 4 chance and would finish higher than us, due to having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players 😉
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,702
9,348
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
You missed the point again, strange though as you were prolific in the Essendon v Carlton thread last preseason where Yoda claimed the Bombers were a top 4 chance and would finish higher than us, due to having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players 😉
Yeah, keep dining out on finishing above Collingwood in 2021 (a year where they finished 17th) and Essendon in 2022 (a year where they finished 15th).

Awesome.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,702
9,348
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Facts?

Yes, this specific fact that in the past two seasons, Carlton has finished above Collingwood once (when they finished 17th) and Essendon once (when they finished 15th).

You should be very proud of your club, they are awesome.

Maybe Yoda and I shouldn't have gone out on a limb and predicted one club to finish above another. That way maybe we wouldn't be constantly trolled for making an incorrect prediction (whilst any correct predictions, of which there have been a majority, are not mentioned...)
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Arr0w

Hall of Famer
Nov 13, 2015
37,984
105,774
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Facts?

Yes, this specific fact that in the past two seasons, Carlton has finished above Collingwood once (when they finished 17th) and Essendon once (when they finished 15th).

You should be very proud of your club, they are awesome.

Maybe Yoda and I shouldn't have gone out on a limb and predicted one club to finish above another. That way maybe we wouldn't be constantly trolled for making an incorrect prediction (whilst any correct predictions, of which there have been a majority, are not mentioned...)

You, talking about being trolled? 😄

Why would anyone think your predictions carry any weight
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Suspended
Jul 14, 2005
18,605
29,319
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chelsea FC
Old Fudgey though the Dees would miss the finals in 2021.

He’s not the most reliable forecaster.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Suspended
Jul 14, 2005
18,605
29,319
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chelsea FC
Needs to get fitter. Taken the piss the last few years with the way he’s presented.
He was fit last season. Really trimmed down and was covering the ground beautifully.

Biggest issue with McGovern is how injury prone he is. Looked like he’d found his niche as an intercepting 3rd tall but then predictably got injured and we saw very little of him.

Need one of he or Marchbank to play out a season, but both just haven’t been able to stay on the park and as a result we looked really vulnerable when Weitering went down.

I’m half hoping we bring in another talented key position defender in the upcoming draft because I don’t have a lot of faith in the guys we’ve got on our list remaining injury-free.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,702
9,348
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

My perception of Carlton is as follows:
1. Their top 9 players took to the field in 90% of matches in 2022. This compares favourably will all teams that actually contended in 2022, with the exception of Collingwood (83%).
2. In 2022 they had a Brownlow Medallist and Coleman Medallist; In 2021 they had a Coleman Medallist and a player poll 30 votes in the Brownlow.
3. They have a heap of injury prone players on their list, who have struggled to consistently get in the park in previous seasons. Martin, McGovern, Marchbank, Cuningham for example.
4. They have a number of players on their list who have been given plenty of opportunities at senior level, and it is clear to anyone watching them that they're not good enough to consistently deliver at that level. Dow, O'Brien, Fogarty and I'll throw Silvagni (who busts his gut but we all know he wouldn't be on an AFL list if not for his name) in there.

So are we going to see their top level players barely miss games, and play a greater percentage of games than any other team in the competition?

Are we going to continue to see Carlton produce the Coleman Medallist and regular top 3 placings in the Brownlow Medal?

Are we all of a sudden going the see the injury prone players all get a good run at it and have career best seasons?

Are we going to see the players who have had plenty of opportunities all of a sudden turn it around and become solid contributors at Senior AFL level?

Because this is what we need to see if we are going to see them contend in 2023 and beyond. I am a numbers man, and the numbers aren't in Carlton's favour until they address items #3 and #4 above.
 

Yoda_

Hall of Famer
May 6, 2007
35,055
19,258
South East Suburbs
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspurs, Melbourne Vixen
Not sure of your point, or are you talking about your club again over the last 2 years?

This is a 2023 thread, and you of all people should know better than using past events as an indication of the future
a bolter is someone who surprises, Carlton missing the finals again would be a huge surprise
 

Kreuuuzeurns

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 25, 2013
9,563
17,368
AFL Club
Carlton
My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

If you want to use the past as an indicator use all of it, instead of the bits and parts you generally cherry pick.
 

Arr0w

Hall of Famer
Nov 13, 2015
37,984
105,774
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
My post about when this thread was discussing a Football Club or a Superannuation Fund was deleted, but it was actually a serious post.

Superannuation Funds are obligated to use the disclaimer 'Past performance is not an indicator of future performance' for AFSL compliance purposes, but if we can't use the past performance of a Football Club as input to predict their future performance, what can we use?!?

Is this the new form of analysis you really want to use as an indication of predictions?

My perception of Carlton is as follows:
1. Their top 9 players took to the field in 90% of matches in 2022. This compares favourably will all teams that actually contended in 2022, with the exception of Collingwood (83%).

Clearly you are using 9 players to cherry pick to try and strengthen your argument, bizarre really
2. In 2022 they had a Brownlow Medallist and Coleman Medallist; In 2021 they had a Coleman Medallist and a player poll 30 votes in the Brownlow.

This is why you receive repetitive replies

3. They have a heap of injury prone players on their list, who have struggled to consistently get in the park in previous seasons. Martin, McGovern, Marchbank, Cuningham for example.

Yes, we do, but Charlie and Doc came back strong from long lay-offs, and again thinking past events will determine whether they stay on the park next year isn't relevant

Nor did it stop the Pies with injury prone Freeman and Scharenberg

4. They have a number of players on their list who have been given plenty of opportunities at senior level, and it is clear to anyone watching them that they're not good enough to consistently deliver at that level. Dow, O'Brien, Fogarty and I'll throw Silvagni (who busts his gut but we all know he wouldn't be on an AFL list if not for his name) in there.

How different is this to any other side, most clubs turnover 8-9 players, but we don't need to push players out and still contribute to their salary

So are we going to see their top level players barely miss games, and play a greater percentage of games than any other team in the competition?

Flawed using 9 players, but everyone knows why
Are we going to continue to see Carlton produce the Coleman Medallist and regular top 3 placings in the Brownlow Medal?

Circular, again. And nothing to do with 2023
Are we all of a sudden going the see the injury prone players all get a good run at it and have career best seasons?

See above
Are we going to see the players who have had plenty of opportunities all of a sudden turn it around and become solid contributors at Senior AFL level?

Kennedy, O'Brien, Cottrell all improved
Because this is what we need to see if we are going to see them contend in 2023 and beyond. I am a numbers man, and the numbers aren't in Carlton's favour until they address items #3 and #4 above.
Numbers? We already know your predictions are poor, along with your maths.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,702
9,348
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
If you want to use the past as an indicator use all of it, instead of the bits and parts you generally cherry pick.
Yeah, unfortunately my crystal ball is broken and my time machine has run out of batteries, so recent past performance is all I have to go on.
 

Remove this Banner Ad