Will Collingwood Make The 8 In 2018?

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They have:

Essendon
Richmond
Brisbane AWAY
Geelong MCG
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Fremantle HOME
Melbourne
Carlton
Gold Coast AWAY
Essendon
West Coast HOME
Kangaroos
Richmond
Sydney AWAY
Brisbane HOME
Port HOME
Fremantle AWAY

Got 2 wins. Will need 10 or 11 minimum more. Will be tight. Sweet draw.
 
Let’s be honest it’s so even there is still 14 or 15 clubs who would be a genuine chance to make the top 8. Anything can happen. After the tigers win the flag last year nothing would surprise me this year.
 
No one actually knows if they will. Particularly a team that's been inconsistent for the last couple of years. I think they answered the question of are they good enough to make finals last night though. Now it 's a matter of will they.
 
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Collingwood can make the 8 at this rate. They have another game against Carlton, 2 against Brisbane, Fremantle, Essendon and Richmond coming up. They already beat Adelaide in Adelaide. They have the wood on Sydney + games against North, St Kilda and Bulldogs. Port, Essendon and Hawthorn were the only teams that they really struggled with last year so pretty good chance to make it.
 
They've just destroyed Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. They've lost to Hawthorn and GWS in a close encounter.

Hawthorn and GWS both look like strong top 8 sides.

2-2 after 4 tough opponents. Could have been 3-1.

What do you make of them after 4 rounds? Top 8 material?
An overreaction would be calling Collingwood contenders. Top 8 is level headed. They just beat Adelaide in Adelaide. Thrashed them. This cannot be understated.

Richmond got done by 50 in the same circumstances.
Hang on, when did Richmond get done by 50 and when did Collingwood lose closely against Hawthorn? We got done by 36 points and Collingwood lost by 34 points against Hawthorn.

Anyway, we match up horribly against Adelaide in Adelaide because we don't have a ruck like Grundy and don't have Collingwood's ball-winning ability in the middle on a dimension like AO. Hence, we tend to get smashed in contested possessions, and Adelaide are usually pretty good at getting the ball to goal.

The way to beat Adelaide at AO in my opinion is to beat them in the contests and have some speed. No surprise that it is sides like Collingwood and Melbourne that are able to go to Adelaide and belt them there because they have this. Well, at least Collingwood had this yesterday. Collingwood had 198-163 contested possessions against them for a 48-point win and Melbourne had 171-156 last year for a 41-point win.

In regards to this thread though, it is a little early in my opinion (despite me being a fan of their list even before the season started). They lost comfortably against Hawthorn, comfortably put away Carlton (so did Gold Coast) and pushed GWS (they even pushed GWS away at Spotless Stadium last year). This win was a great one no doubt, but both North Melbourne and Melbourne smashed Adelaide last year and neither made the finals. The reality is that making finals is not based off one awesome performance. I personally think that they'll probably end up playing finals, but I want to see how they perform at the MCG through to at least halfway into the season. Signs are looking very good though.
 
Yep, I think they will. Put them in my 8 pre season as well. They’ve been great last two weeks. I don’t know how much we can take from it yet but, beat Carlton, and clearly a tactical blunder tonight playing all those talls in the wet plus they looked lazy and beaten up tonight Adelaide
Not having a go at you, just the theme of your post which has been common last two weeks. Not enough credit for Collingwood’s Ws last two weeks and an emphasis on the teams with the Ls by a few people. You can only beat the teams in front of you and the Pies have done that comfortably in the last two weeks.
 
Essendon 50/50
Richmond Probable Loss
Brisbane AWAY 50/50 at the Gabba
Geelong MCG Loss
St Kilda Win (on current form unless the Saints turn the corner)
Bulldogs 50/50
Fremantle HOME Win Dockers aren't bad but I'm backing the Pies at the G
Melbourne Loss
Carlton Win
Gold Coast AWAY 50/50
Essendon 50/50
West Coast HOME Win Eagles in Melbourne are pretty poor
Kangaroos Win
Richmond Probable Loss
Sydney AWAY Loss
Brisbane HOME Win
Port HOME Probable Loss
Fremantle AWAY 50/50

6 clear wins, let's split the 50/50s to give them another 3, and of the probable losses let's assume they can pinch an upset and give them 1 win.

That's 10 more wins for the season putting them on 12 wins total, that gives them a smallish chance to make the 8 in my eyes. Still more unlikely than likely.

Collingwood fans might point to the 50/50s and argue some of them are wins, but in reality upsets do happen, see last night.
 

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