Opinion Will either Carlton or Essendon be the bolter in 2022?

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?


  • Total voters
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Yoda_

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Not that we are there yet, but most flag winning sides have 20-30% of premiership players coming from other clubs. You had 10 players from other clubs, playing games last year

Thats fair, our players got on the field. Probably only Phillips (back up ruck, 6 games in '21), Caldwell (injured mid, 3 games), Shiel (injured mid, 8 games) really missed large chunks of the year. The rest really filled in and did a role for the team.

So seems about right that 7 players (33%) contributed to the team for significant periods of the season (more than half the games)
 

Yoda_

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I count 17.
I would say 9 of them are solid best 22 players.
5 of them fringe and unlikely to best 22.
4 probably won't be around for long.

As a side who was in a similar position years ago, Essendon relied heavily upon recycled players in an attempt to stay competitive. The challenge for Carlton is most likely upgrading a large portion of those (recycled) role players with better, higher upside draftees to enable them to take the next step.
 

doppleganger

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As someone else has said, Docherty doesn’t have to be AA to improve on last season. His first half of the season was actually quite good, before dropping away considerably. I’m more optimistic than most regarding his future I guess.

Williams was one of the most damaging hbf in the league not so long ago. Don’t particularly agree that he’s best described as “flakey” perhaps a little “injury prone” in the last few seasons is more apt.

Martin is flakey I agree, but his output over the last two seasons is still below what he is capable of, even compared to his GC days. Similar to McGovern in the sense that he just hasn’t had a good run at it, injury wise. More than capable enough however.
Re Doc, everyone hopes he is able to get back to 20+ games of footy in a season.

Williams, he had one standout season, in 2019, that hasn't been the norm.

Martin and McGovern are similar, blokes who just never put it together. Recruited on the promise of the odd good game...

Compare their careers to Hewett. Hewett has multiple top5 BnF finishes and every season bar 1 played 20+ games...you should expect him to be a quality contributor, finally bringing in a quality mature player!

When recruit average injury prone blokes, ain't surprising that they produce average injury interrupted seasons!!
 

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Arr0w

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Re Doc, everyone hopes he is able to get back to 20+ games of footy in a season.

Williams, he had one standout season, in 2019, that hasn't been the norm.

Martin and McGovern are similar, blokes who just never put it together. Recruited on the promise of the odd good game...

Compare their careers to Hewett. Hewett has multiple top5 BnF finishes and every season bar 1 played 20+ games...you should expect him to be a quality contributor, finally bringing in a quality mature player!

When recruit average injury prone blokes, ain't surprising that they produce average injury interrupted seasons!!

Recruit/draft, it plays out similar for all sides, with some players. Young, Krakouer, Ceglar, Lynch, Russell, Karnezis, White, Armstrong, Sharenberg, Freeman, Aish, Murray, Dunn, Wells.

Didn't stop the Pies from reaching a GF in 2018
 

Benga

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Re Doc, everyone hopes he is able to get back to 20+ games of footy in a season.

Williams, he had one standout season, in 2019, that hasn't been the norm.

Martin and McGovern are similar, blokes who just never put it together. Recruited on the promise of the odd good game...

Compare their careers to Hewett. Hewett has multiple top5 BnF finishes and every season bar 1 played 20+ games...you should expect him to be a quality contributor, finally bringing in a quality mature player!

When recruit average injury prone blokes, ain't surprising that they produce average injury interrupted seasons!!
Disagree regarding Williams.

Like I said, even when you compare the output of Martin at gc vs Carlton, it’s well down.
 

Yoda_

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Recruit/draft, it plays out similar for all sides, with some players. Young, Krakouer, Ceglar, Lynch, Russell, Karnezis, White, Armstrong, Sharenberg, Freeman, Aish, Murray, Dunn, Wells.

Didn't stop the Pies from reaching a GF in 2018

Why do you do that? Try and turn the point around onto the posters club they support? Is it some sort of coping mechanism because the point that doppelganger made wasn't given the reply it deserved.


I touched on it before but Carlton has recruited role players from other clubs to be thee players at Ikon park. Zac Williams was a role player, the 6th in line in the Giants midfield. Carlton recruiting him on the proviso he could become the #3 guy there now. Backfired and wondered why it didn't. That type of scenario has played out multiple times. McGovern was the fourth tall at Adelaide, recruited to be the #2 / #3 guy and failed (not through all his own fault - injuries, form etc).
 

Arr0w

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Why do you do that? Try and turn the point around onto the posters club they support? Is it some sort of coping mechanism because the point that doppelganger made wasn't given the reply it deserved.


I touched on it before but Carlton has recruited role players from other clubs to be thee players at Ikon park. Zac Williams was a role player, the 6th in line in the Giants midfield. Carlton recruiting him on the proviso he could become the #3 guy there now. Backfired and wondered why it didn't. That type of scenario has played out multiple times. McGovern was the fourth tall at Adelaide, recruited to be the #2 / #3 guy and failed (not through all his own fault - injuries, form etc).

I can highlight similar situations for all clubs, it's not unique to any club, nor does it hamper them from going deep into finals

Backfired and failed? Have they retired?

Even if it doesn't play out successfully for a couple of players, it won't hold the team back from improving output, hence highlighting similar situations at othe clubs
 

WillHayward

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Carlton fans will be very happy with George Hewett.

Nothing flashy but can seriously play the game. Likely to slowly but surely become a fan and coach fave...
 
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Yoda_

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I can highlight similar situations for all clubs, it's not unique to any club, nor does it hamper them from going deep into finals

Even if it doesn't play out successfully for a couple of players, it won't hold the team back from improving output, hence highlighting similar situations at othe clubs

I feel you completely missed my point
 

Ambrosia

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Saw an eye opening stat the other day where half of Carlton’s list started at other clubs , really a clear outlier compared to most other clubs which seem to be getting more draft focused than less

Hard to say if it matters at all but interesting to see how it works out for them


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

Carlton have a ton of players from other clubs but I don’t see it as overly negative thing.

Especially the likes of Plowman, Martin, Setterfield, Saad, McGovern, Williams, Hewett, Docherty, Kennedy, Cerra and Marchbank who all would have been sought after by other clubs. If anything those names means Carlton deserves a tick for at least attracting talent.

The number of fringe guys is a symptom of their shallow list and seemingly poor ability to find role players with late draft picks. That being said their aren’t as many of these guys on their list as there used to be (Fogarty, Newnes, McDonald, Young, Newman).

What’s disappointing is the outcomes from the sought after guys. I’d say so far all of McGovern, Martin, Setterfield, Marchbank, Williams and Kennedy have significantly underperformed expectations.

They also outside of maybe Pittonet haven’t really grabbed a guy cheaply and turned them into a valuable contributor.

Overall I don’t really see where you get the players as the problem as long you have the requisite talent on the list
 

Arr0w

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I feel you completely missed my point

Didn't miss the point at all. People seem to be forecasting a scenario that is only relevant to one club, when it effects all clubs

You have also mentioned certain Carlton players that have been underperforming, like it is only relevant for us.

Shiel recruited on a sizable contract, high draft picks, injured most of last year and really hasn't delivered on his contract or the value you gave up

Stinger inconsistent apart from last year

Smith injured most of 2019

Did it stop you from making finals, no
 

Yoda_

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Didn't miss the point at all. People seem to be forecasting a scenario that is only relevant to one club, when it effects all clubs

You have also mentioned certain Carlton players that have been underperforming, like it is only relevant for us.

Shiel recruited on a sizable contract, high draft picks, injured most of last year and really hasn't delivered on his contract or the value you gave up

Stinger inconsistent apart from last year

Smith injured most of 2019

Did it stop you from making finals, no

Yep, still missed the point :thumbsu:

Carlton are heavily overpaying for minimal return.

Any Essendon, let alone AFL supporter will tell you that Essendon overpaid for Shiel so happy for you to attempt to throw that one in my face. We ended up paying one first and one second (yeah, was two firsts but one ended up being Caldwell whom we paid a second for 18 months later anyways).

The trade / free agency value we've paid has us significantly in the +.
 

Arr0w

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Yep, still missed the point :thumbsu:

Carlton are heavily overpaying for minimal return.

Any Essendon, let alone AFL supporter will tell you that Essendon overpaid for Shiel so happy for you to attempt to throw that one in my face. We ended up paying one first and one second (yeah, was two firsts but one ended up being Caldwell whom we paid a second for 18 months later anyways).

The trade / free agency value we've paid has us significantly in the +.

Yet we have paid the total of 2 x 2nd rounders for Hewett, Martin, McGovern and Williams

Am I still missing the point
 

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Blues90

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Only reason I say us over Essendon is our KPP Essendons is still raw or non existent. Charlie Curnow makes McKays job even easier too
 

Arr0w

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Meanwhile, the sum of the total parts isn't nearly what you would have hoped for

So we are shifting the discussion from what we paid for 4 players to a team's overall output

You must have a short memory if you have forgotten your 2020 season and I doubt anyone would have predicted you making finals a year later

One is factual, the other is opinion
 

Yoda_

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So we are shifting the discussion from what we paid for 4 players to a team's overall output

You must have a short memory if you have forgotten your 2020 season and I doubt anyone would have predicted you making finals a year later

One is factual, the other is opinion
That was where the initial discussion was heading so I cut the middle jibe you were no doubt going to make (re Shiel) and you still wanted to make a dig.


That's ok. Ladder from last year as much as you want to say it doesn't says we finished above Carlton with a much better percentage. That is a fact if you wish to keep dealing in them.
 

Arr0w

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That was where the initial discussion was heading so I cut the middle jibe you were no doubt going to make (re Shiel) and you still wanted to make a dig.


That's ok. Ladder from last year as much as you want to say it doesn't says we finished above Carlton with a much better percentage. That is a fact if you wish to keep dealing in them.

Now who is missing the point

After finishing bottom 6 in 2020, giving up multiple highish picks for Shiel, Smith, Stringer, the view would have been:

"Meanwhile, the sum of the total parts isn't nearly what you would have hoped for"

But a year later you still made finals

Not having a dig, so stop being so defensive. I am pointing out that things aren't as bad or good compared to reality
 

Yoda_

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Now who is missing the point

After finishing bottom 6 in 2020, giving up multiple highish picks for Shiel, Smith, Stringer, the view would have been:

"Meanwhile, the sum of the total parts isn't nearly what you would have hoped for"

But a year later you still made finals

Not having a dig, so stop being so defensive. I am pointing out that things aren't as bad or good compared to reality

The players we have brought in (bar the price we probably paid for Shiel at the time) has not been the problem from the get go.

Carlton have overpaid for very little return. That has been my point all along which you haven't realised.
 

Arr0w

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The players we have brought in (bar the price we probably paid for Shiel at the time) has not been the problem from the get go.

Carlton have overpaid for very little return. That has been my point all along which you haven't realised.

Already pointed out what we have paid for 4 players, 2 x 2nd rounders isn't overpaying

And at the end of 2020, what you paid for Shiel, Smith, Stringer, would have been deemed as overpaying compared to your team's output

Unfortunately, the above is unrefuttable

But the point is, in your case and for all sides, things can/do change quickly
 

Yoda_

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Already pointed out what we have paid for 4 players, 2 x 2nd rounders isn't overpaying

And at the end of 2020, what you paid for Shiel, Smith, Stringer, would have been deemed as overpaying compared to your team's output

Unfortunately, the above is unrefuttable

But the point is, in your case and for all sides, things can/do change quickly


Yep, still missing the point/


The price that Carlton paid for Martin (salary), Williams (salary), Saad (pick 8) etc is staggering considering what the market value is / was for those types of players.

Martin is a nice player, a cream on top not a go and get first type.


The players that Essendon have brought in, in accordance to what we paid for them has been a decent return. Bar Shiel whom in hindsight we paid 1 x first and 1 x second for anyway has been ok.



Essendon is ahead of Carlton. The Blues may have as good, if not better top end talents but the depth across the Bombers list is much deeper hence the much stronger ladder position. 2022 will see a more pronounced and accurate indication of where each team is at.
 

Arr0w

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Yep, still missing the point/


The price that Carlton paid for Martin (salary), Williams (salary), Saad (pick 8) etc is staggering considering what the market value is / was for those types of players.

Martin is a nice player, a cream on top not a go and get first type.


The players that Essendon have brought in, in accordance to what we paid for them has been a decent return. Bar Shiel whom in hindsight we paid 1 x first and 1 x second for anyway has been ok.



Essendon is ahead of Carlton. The Blues may have as good, if not better top end talents but the depth across the Bombers list is much deeper hence the much stronger ladder position. 2022 will see a more pronounced and accurate indication of where each team is at.

So now you want to include Saad? I thought the discussion was Williams, Martin, McGovern

Already covered salary cap, you can spend whatever you want on any player as long as it fits your cap, we aren't the Pies, so we won't fire sale players we spent 3 top 10 picks on

We gave up 2 x 2nd rounders for Williams, Martin, McGovern and didn't finish bottom 6 in 2021

You gave up considerably more for Shiel, Smith, Stringer and finished bottom 6 in 2020. But didn't stop you making finals a year later

Get the point, yet?

Now, you have made a prediction where you will finish this year, top 4, and Carlton no more than 10 wins. Look forward to reviewing that with you end of year
 

Yoda_

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So now you want to include Saad? I thought the discussion was Williams, Martin, McGovern

Already covered salary cap, you can spend whatever you want on any player as long as it fits your cap, we aren't the Pies, so we won't fire sale players we spent 3 top 10 picks on

We gave up 2 x 2nd rounders for Williams, Martin, McGovern and didn't finish bottom 6 in 2021

You gave up considerably more for Shiel, Smith, Stringer and finished bottom 6 in 2020. But didn't stop you making finals a year later

Get the point, yet?

Now, you have made a prediction where you will finish this year, top 4, and Carlton no more than 10 wins. Look forward to reviewing that with you end of year

"If you lie to yourself enough, even you will start to believe it"


I've had enough of trying to have a reasonable discussion with you. It looked so promising but turned into another sh*t throwing debate from another Carlton Cohort member.
 

Arr0w

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"If you lie to yourself enough, even you will start to believe it"


I've had enough of trying to have a reasonable discussion with you. It looked so promising but turned into another sh*t throwing debate from another Carlton Cohort member.

Facts are irrefutable aren't they, unlike opinions
 

doppleganger

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Why do you do that? Try and turn the point around onto the posters club they support? Is it some sort of coping mechanism because the point that doppelganger made wasn't given the reply it deserved.
Seems nothing changes.

Ignore works beautifully. The 430+ spam posts now don't clog up the thread and kill actual decent discussion.