Opinion Will either Carlton or Essendon be the bolter in 2022?

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?


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Apr 19, 2006
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So what you're saying is;

They generally beat teams they were better than, but generally lost to teams they weren't better than.

GROUNDBREAKING SPORTS ANALYSIS
What I’m saying is that they probably get a bit too much credit for making finals, considering they defeated just one side in the top 8.
 

owen87

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What I’m saying is that they probably get a bit too much credit for making finals, considering they defeated just one side in the top 8.

They generally beat the teams below them and had better percentage than any team that didn't make the 8.

I'd say that puts them about where they should have been, generally better than the teams below them, but worse than the ones above them.

Any other incredible insights to offer today?
 

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Apr 19, 2006
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Its what you would expect of team who finished 8th. If they beat more top 8 sides they likely would finish higher then 8th...
You don’t reckon that teams that finish 8th generally win more then 1 game against the top 8?
I’d have to have a look, but I’d be a little surprised if that’s not the case, as teams around the middle generally have good and bad days.

Saints finished 10th and won 3 games against the top 8 for example.
 

RobR

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You don’t reckon that teams that finish 8th generally win more then 1 game against the top 8?
I’d have to have a look, but I’d be a little surprised if that’s not the case, as teams around the middle generally have good and bad days.

Saints finished 10th and won 3 games against the top 8 for example.
Carlton finished 13th and had one easy win against a top eight side, maybe without the easy draw the Bombers finish around the same mark.
 

Red_man2008

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I had to look that one up. Yep 5th placed blues belted 8th placed Essendon in an Elim final.

For some strange reason i dont remember bit.

Actually i only remember 3 things in that 2011 finals series.

1. The 2011 grand final.

2. The hawks vs magpies preliminary final.

3. Remarkably the 2011 semi final between eagles and blues where the blues rallied near the end ofghe game and nearly won it.

Rest of that 2011 finals series I don't remember.
The free kick not paid to Andrew Walker in the dying stages. Carlton missing Kruezer, Gibbs and Thornton hurt lots.
 

owen87

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Apr 23, 2016
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You don’t reckon that teams that finish 8th generally win more then 1 game against the top 8?
I’d have to have a look, but I’d be a little surprised if that’s not the case, as teams around the middle generally have good and bad days.

Saints finished 10th and won 3 games against the top 8 for example.

There was a very clear gap between the Top-6 sides and the rest.

But again; team generally beats lower ranked teams, generally loses to higher ranked teams.

Real insightful.
 

master bate

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Philp - Really excited about this former first round pick, loads of ability, athleticism and talent but has spent his first 2 seasons injured. He will be a top player but development wise, where he is is unknown. I expect him to be best 22 next season.

O'Brien - He's a very skilful and talented player but a slow developer. A slight build but elite kick and running ability. His last month of footy last season was amongst the better wingers in the comp statistically, particularly with his ability to open play up and deliver to forwards by foot. If that is anything to go by and his new standards he's going to be good but lets see. He's only 22 so it's fair to say his best football will be from 23 onwards like

Newnes - Been a good cheap get to fill that gap on the wing. He's ok but not the future.

Carroll - Really talented young player who will be in his second year. He'll be good but will he be ready? Hard to say.

Cuningham - Began to mature last year after some steady development but then did his ACL. He will be back but how well he goes only time will tell.

Cottrell - Elite runner but skills are rough, could be a good honest player.

Potential Wing option
Williams - Talented backman who has never been fit enough to play midfield. If he gets fit he could play anywhere in the midfield, if.

Kemp - Probably going to play back but would love to see him play wing. Another high draft pick with loads of talent who has spent his first two seasons injured.

Docherty - Has played a bit of wing but coming back from chemo, who knows where he will be at.


Carlton are a very big unknown quality wise. A lot of players hoping to be over their injury riddled early days. Some new recruits and a good handful of early draft picks who have been developing and maturing and should start coming on. Wing is a weak spot but one where there is potential to fill it. Midfield depth and pace is a weak spot but the potential to fill that is there as well. One thing is for sure, they won't be anywhere near as poor as they were in 2021.
That's not good reading.

Philp and Carroll haven't played and aren't specialist wingers anyway, it's a huge ask to get young players to play wing. LOB would've been delisted if not for where he was drafted. Cottrell probably would've been delisted but you need hard workers to fill those fringe spots.

If Williams got fit he'd play on ball. Contested footy is one of his strengths, he's not an outside runner just because he's a half back. Kemp, no experience. Docherty, poor bloke, needs to settle in to his best position once he gets healthy.

I think it will be Newnes on one wing and then take your pick from Hewett or Curnow, whichever one doesn't get the main tagging role. With Cerra rotating out to the wing a lot too. Setterfield maybe an outside chance due to his height if the Blues want a designated drop back winger.

One issue Carlton has with bringing in Cerra and Hewett alongside Cripps is leg speed on ball. That's a lot of 190cm ish players without burst. So they'll have to balance the on ball rotations with more zip otherwise Walsh will be chasing tail all day. I don't know who it will be out of Cuningham, Fisher, Philp, Fogarty or Dow but they need a couple of those zippy types in the midfield mix.
 

owen87

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If Williams got fit he'd play on ball. Contested footy is one of his strengths

Ah yes, noted contested ball winner Zac Williams.

In his best season for Contested Possessions he averaged 8.9.

Between other noted contested ball winners Andrew Gaff (9.14), and Jack Martin (8.75)...
 

RobR

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That's not good reading.

Philp and Carroll haven't played and aren't specialist wingers anyway, it's a huge ask to get young players to play wing. LOB would've been delisted if not for where he was drafted. Cottrell probably would've been delisted but you need hard workers to fill those fringe spots.

If Williams got fit he'd play on ball. Contested footy is one of his strengths, he's not an outside runner just because he's a half back. Kemp, no experience. Docherty, poor bloke, needs to settle in to his best position once he gets healthy.

I think it will be Newnes on one wing and then take your pick from Hewett or Curnow, whichever one doesn't get the main tagging role. With Cerra rotating out to the wing a lot too. Setterfield maybe an outside chance due to his height if the Blues want a designated drop back winger.

One issue Carlton has with bringing in Cerra and Hewett alongside Cripps is leg speed on ball. That's a lot of 190cm ish players without burst. So they'll have to balance the on ball rotations with more zip otherwise Walsh will be chasing tail all day. I don't know who it will be out of Cuningham, Fisher, Philp, Fogarty or Dow but they need a couple of those zippy types in the midfield mix.
Shit post mate, i can't find much wrong with it.
 

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owen87

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That's not good reading.

Philp and Carroll haven't played and aren't specialist wingers anyway, it's a huge ask to get young players to play wing. LOB would've been delisted if not for where he was drafted. Cottrell probably would've been delisted but you need hard workers to fill those fringe spots.

If Williams got fit he'd play on ball. Contested footy is one of his strengths, he's not an outside runner just because he's a half back. Kemp, no experience. Docherty, poor bloke, needs to settle in to his best position once he gets healthy.

I think it will be Newnes on one wing and then take your pick from Hewett or Curnow, whichever one doesn't get the main tagging role. With Cerra rotating out to the wing a lot too. Setterfield maybe an outside chance due to his height if the Blues want a designated drop back winger.

One issue Carlton has with bringing in Cerra and Hewett alongside Cripps is leg speed on ball. That's a lot of 190cm ish players without burst. So they'll have to balance the on ball rotations with more zip otherwise Walsh will be chasing tail all day. I don't know who it will be out of Cuningham, Fisher, Philp, Fogarty or Dow but they need a couple of those zippy types in the midfield mix.

More seriously though;

Cerra can play an outside midfield role, similar to Merrett. Someone like Dow who has leg speed seems better suited to play a more inside role with Cripps trying to clear the ball out to guys like Walsh or Cerra IMO, which is partly what Hewett is there to help with as one of his strengths is creating space around the contest for other players to get to work.

A fit Cripps is strong enough in the contest to off-set the lack of speed if he's got guys to clear the ball out to, especially if the setup defensive side of the contest is better than it had been under Teague.
 

gbatman

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That's not good reading.

Philp and Carroll haven't played and aren't specialist wingers anyway, it's a huge ask to get young players to play wing. LOB would've been delisted if not for where he was drafted. Cottrell probably would've been delisted but you need hard workers to fill those fringe spots.

If Williams got fit he'd play on ball. Contested footy is one of his strengths, he's not an outside runner just because he's a half back. Kemp, no experience. Docherty, poor bloke, needs to settle in to his best position once he gets healthy.

I think it will be Newnes on one wing and then take your pick from Hewett or Curnow, whichever one doesn't get the main tagging role. With Cerra rotating out to the wing a lot too. Setterfield maybe an outside chance due to his height if the Blues want a designated drop back winger.

One issue Carlton has with bringing in Cerra and Hewett alongside Cripps is leg speed on ball. That's a lot of 190cm ish players without burst. So they'll have to balance the on ball rotations with more zip otherwise Walsh will be chasing tail all day. I don't know who it will be out of Cuningham, Fisher, Philp, Fogarty or Dow but they need a couple of those zippy types in the midfield mix.

I agree, the wing positions are not a strong point. It's going to take someone to step up or this will be mediocre again.

LOB's age and his last month of footy is why he is still there. Right about Cottrell.

Kemp probably would take time to develop, but that's ok, there is still some of that to come for that team but probably hasn't got the tank for the position at this stage. Williams needs to get fitter in general, looks slimmer at the moment. Docherty back pocket IMO.

I think Philp will be straight in on a wing, very talented player and athlete with the right stuff between the ears. Missed out on him since drafting him which is unfortunate. Newnes maybe, he's ok but you would like better. Hewett likely on the ball. Curnow is a makeshift or defensive winger.

Cerra is a good option and Sam Walsh played very elite footy a few years ago on a wing but is likely to feature on the ball.

Setterfield was played wing early this year and was terrible. Unless there was an excuse for that then he's unlikely to play there.

100% agree with the tall midfielder and leg speed/agility issues. I wrote a lot about that on the Carlton forum some time back and how that is really bad defensively because that's how modern teams defend, with agile hard at it players with burst speed who can get to those contest quickly. definitely need those shorter, agile hard nuts in there. A player like Viney would be an example of what would improve Carlton defensively, they just make more opposition clearances into contests. A good challenge for the coach and list management. There's potential there to find those types but they need to step up.
 

Le Archie

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With a bit of luck and natural improvement that inevitably comes for a young side like Essendon and Carlton, they could both be bolters in finals this year. Both have spent a lot of time accumulating good young talent, that talent began to mature for Essendon last year and is ready to mature for Carlton this year.

It would be great to see both sides going head to head as serious contenders in finals. Has not happened since very early 2000s.
Agreed we both have some great young talent and we had some young stars shine throughout the year but our improvement was on the back of our 24-27 yr olds having their best seasons for the club. Parish, Laverde, Langford, Merrett, Stringer, Hind, Redman. Aside from Merrett the rest had always been solid AFL players but with a new coach and improved team cohesion these guys held the fort up. You would know the Carlton list better than me but who are those players for the Blues that are in that age bracket that could potentially stand up and have career best years?
 

master bate

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Ah yes, noted contested ball winner Zac Williams.

In his best season for Contested Possessions he averaged 8.9.

Between other noted contested ball winners Andrew Gaff (9.14), and Jack Martin (8.75)...
When he went on ball with the Giants he was a clearance machine. At half back he's not going to have good contested ball numbers, but I'd still suggest his game adapts to on ball far more than wing. Although the right call is to settle him back in the backline and worry about the midfield if he proves himself fit and worthy of another chance up the ground.
Coach Leon Cameron turned to the 25-year-old – and star forward Toby Greene – to fill the void with Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, Callan Ward and Matt de Boer unavailable, and he averaged a staggering 7.6 clearances in the five games he played predominantly in the midfield.

That included 10 in last week's thrilling preliminary final win over Collingwood.
 
Apr 19, 2006
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There was a very clear gap between the Top-6 sides and the rest.

But again; team generally beats lower ranked teams, generally loses to higher ranked teams.

Real insightful.
Sides that make the top 8 generally win games more than 1 game against the top 8.

St Kilda finished 10th and won 3.
 

owen87

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Sides that make the top 8 generally win games more than 1 game against the top 8.

St Kilda finished 10th and won 3.

So we're back to your SPORTS INSIGHTS

They generally beat the teams below them and had better percentage than any team that didn't make the 8.

I'd say that puts them about where they should have been, generally better than the teams below them, but worse than the ones above them.

Any other incredible insights to offer today?
 

owen87

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When he went on ball with the Giants he was a clearance machine. At half back he's not going to have good contested ball numbers, but I'd still suggest his game adapts to on ball far more than wing. Although the right call is to settle him back in the backline and worry about the midfield if he proves himself fit and worthy of another chance up the ground.

Ah this chestnut again.

He's played 127 games.

Maybe 5 of them were good midfield games.

122 weren't.

Perhaps he's just simply not the great white midfield hope they paid him ~ $850k to be?
 

La Dispute

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One position doesn't make or break a team.

We'd probably prefer to balance his time around the stoppages, but Cerra likely spends more time on the outside where he has dominated at times at Freo. The defensive wing is covered by Newnes until a player steps up to replace him, which we'd hope occurs as soon as possible.

Philp is coming into his 3rd year and should play a fair bit of footy this year, but his capabilities as an outside mid are a little unknown. Played more of an inside-leaning mid at the Northern Knights.

LOB is still a possibility and likely gets a crack Round 1 - the club clearly has some concerns though, hence being demoted. The reports from the track have been what we've come to expect every pre-season. Dominates the time trials, looks out of it in match sim. His running patterns and want to hunt the ball are just a little off.

Someone like Honey should also be looked at as someone who can pinch hit in the midfield.
 

gbatman

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Agreed we both have some great young talent and we had some young stars shine throughout the year but our improvement was on the back of our 24-27 yr olds having their best seasons for the club. Parish, Laverde, Langford, Merrett, Stringer, Hind, Redman. Aside from Merrett the rest had always been solid AFL players but with a new coach and improved team cohesion these guys held the fort up. You would know the Carlton list better than me but who are those players for the Blues that are in that age bracket that could potentially stand up and have career best years?

That's a really good question, there are a lot of guys who haven't done much. I think McGovern in defence will be one of them, he's a huge talent and good footballer but very injury prone and hasn't put it together as a forward yet.

It's make or break for O'Brien. His last month of footy was really good, he's coming into that age group where slow developers start to get there. He's never going to be a high possession player but if he can average in the low 20s with his disposal he will do a lot of damage. Statistically his last month was good and his kicking was excellent, setup a lot of goals so there is possibly something there.

Dow is someone I have been a bit disappointed in but the talent is there and so is the athleticism. I think I've been a bit harsh there considering he is also only at an age where slower developing players begin to make it. So he's a maybe.

Cerra is a bit more of a high profile player, he started to play high level footy last season and at his age that makes sense because he's in that age group where a lot of footballer only start to come good. IMO he could be a real bolter.

Williams when he came over I thought by looks he was too heavy and he was. He looks trimmer at the moment so lets see. The talent is there but the fitness probably has never been. With Andrew Russell there that's not going to fly. Maybe not best season but better than his last.

McKay, I think he will get better, he may not score as many goals if he is sharing them more with Curnow but he will be fitter and stronger and hopefully over that shoulder injury.

Charlie Curnow is an obvious one.

DeKoning will have a big year if he stays fit.

Had really high hopes for Stocker but an injury setback will probably hold his progress a bit more steady.

Kemp, the guy is a freak talent athletic wise but can play footy. When he was drafted I was sure he would become something special, not sure in what position though.

Carroll, will he play much senior footy, he will play some. Not sure how good he will be though but he will be better.

Durdin will be a small forward that general footy fans will become aware of, he just has it in terms of can play and modern small forward attributes.

Marchbank without injuries yes. The usual Marchbank has injuries and that's a no. Will he stay fit?

Fisher? I don't know, he's got talent and speed in spades but he hasn't clicked yet maturity wise.

Philp. He's a player who has it. The talent is there but so is the competitiveness and work ethic. He'll make it and play seniors early.

Honey. He'll be there as well, still developing but he will come on fast. He's got that talent, super athlete and x factor.

Could be a few others who really go ahead as well but it is hard to say. Could have said Kennedy but he's already gone ahead, could he get better? Lets see.

No one really knows for sure with Carlton whether they improve much or not. When there are so many changes coming to a side who knows.
 

Metalcrusher

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That's a really good question, there are a lot of guys who haven't done much. I think McGovern in defence will be one of them, he's a huge talent and good footballer but very injury prone and hasn't put it together as a forward yet.

It's make or break for O'Brien. His last month of footy was really good, he's coming into that age group where slow developers start to get there. He's never going to be a high possession player but if he can average in the low 20s with his disposal he will do a lot of damage. Statistically his last month was good and his kicking was excellent, setup a lot of goals so there is possibly something there.

Dow is someone I have been a bit disappointed in but the talent is there and so is the athleticism. I think I've been a bit harsh there considering he is also only at an age where slower developing players begin to make it. So he's a maybe.

Cerra is a bit more of a high profile player, he started to play high level footy last season and at his age that makes sense because he's in that age group where a lot of footballer only start to come good. IMO he could be a real bolter.

Williams when he came over I thought by looks he was too heavy and he was. He looks trimmer at the moment so lets see. The talent is there but the fitness probably has never been. With Andrew Russell there that's not going to fly. Maybe not best season but better than his last.

McKay, I think he will get better, he may not score as many goals if he is sharing them more with Curnow but he will be fitter and stronger and hopefully over that shoulder injury.

Charlie Curnow is an obvious one.

DeKoning will have a big year if he stays fit.

Had really high hopes for Stocker but an injury setback will probably hold his progress a bit more steady.

Kemp, the guy is a freak talent athletic wise but can play footy. When he was drafted I was sure he would become something special, not sure in what position though.

Carroll, will he play much senior footy, he will play some. Not sure how good he will be though but he will be better.

Durdin will be a small forward that general footy fans will become aware of, he just has it in terms of can play and modern small forward attributes.

Marchbank without injuries yes. The usual Marchbank has injuries and that's a no. Will he stay fit?

Fisher? I don't know, he's got talent and speed in spades but he hasn't clicked yet maturity wise.

Philp. He's a player who has it. The talent is there but so is the competitiveness and work ethic. He'll make it and play seniors early.

Honey. He'll be there as well, still developing but he will come on fast. He's got that talent, super athlete and x factor.

Could be a few others who really go ahead as well but it is hard to say. Could have said Kennedy but he's already gone ahead, could he get better? Lets see.

No one really knows for sure with Carlton whether they improve much or not. When there are so many changes coming to a side who knows.

Stocker ...
 

nineteen eighty

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My opinion on Williams...he's not a midfielder's ahole. He's played a few good games as a mid out of what is it...150'ish. He can be a damaging half back but at $850k, that's a hell of a lot assigned to a half back.

Cerra is a good pick up and has shown signs of progressing but up until half way through last year, he was still a developing player. I expect him to be good for the Blues. Can't see him being a bolter though.