Opinion Brian Cook - Carlton's rebuild still has a fair way to go

[katmanblue]

Is like asking for Putin's thoughts on what he thinks of Ukraine people choosing their own president.

"They can choose anyone, as long as it's me."

 

[footyfan1978]

"They can choose anyone, as long as it's me."

That is not him.
More like..
"if they think about choosing anyone but me, then poison or jail whom they considering choosing"

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

lol what?

Essendon's Midfield is far beyond Carltons both now and in the future.......i didn't even realize this is was up for discussion.

Hows this one working out?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Istina]

Carlton for me, Curnow to have a big season also.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

I reckon Carlton win the flag, they are the best side in it. If they don't beat Melbourne they're a laughing stock tbh

 

[Arr0w]

Been very quiet in here in recent times, should leave this for when both sides are in their bye round after this week, but let's review some of the predictions and so called "analysis" before the start of the season

I only had to wait 18 years actually

1.Melbourne
2.Bulldogs
3.Port
4.Brisbane
5.Geelong
6.Sydney
7.Freo
8.GWS
9.Richmond
10.Essendon
11.North
12. St Kilda
13.West Coast
14.Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Carlton
17. Adelaide
18.Hawthorn

16th? That is some level of trolling

Anywhere between 9th and 18th.

But it's not about 2022.

My assessment is they don't have the depth and mix of AFL talent to contend with Rebuild 6.0.

I've previously predicted that with this rebuild their peak will be a season where they fall into the 8, maybe even win a final.

But they don't contend.

Similar to Rebuild 3.0 in 2011/2012.

I see you are still really hedging your bets, with the range of 9th to 18th and still so far off the mark

Talk about being all over the shop.


Not sure what the Colliwobbles from 40 years ago when it was a suburban amateur competition has to do with Carlton being an uncompetitive club in the AFL?


Buckley was "handed" a side that had been contending for five years before he took over - finished PF or better in 07,09,10 and 11. In his first year, 2012, again finished top4 and played in a PF., so six years where Pies were contending.

How long do you think sides normally contend for before falling away? Pretty rare for a team to be playing in PFs for six or seven years in a row.


Again all over the shop...

Yes after the Pies were up for six years, and winning a flag...Buckley then embarked on a rebuild.

4 years out of finals where he built a new list and then had Collingwood contending and playing in GFs and PFs again.

Yep, we then rolled the dice and it backfired and we are now back down with the likes of Carlton as a bottom feeder.


Pies have rebuilt 3 times since Carlton last played in a GF back in 99...each build has seen us make a GF and spend multiple years in top4.

Or could just stick with whatever s**t Carlton keep trotting out that has seen them an almost permanent fixture in the bottom 4 since the game became professional.


LoL...Carlton fans seem to love pointing the finger at the coach, refusing to consider that the list might be the problem!?


Yep, even the best coaches have used by dates.


Agree with that when talking Carlton, it wasn't Ratten, Malthouse, Barker, Bolton, Teague that were the problem....the list management has been woeful, and the list remains shallow.

So entering 2022, Carlton have a shallow list headed up by a failed senior coach with meh assistants like Tim Clarke who was already at Carlton years ago, and had a stint at the Suns...pardon me for thinking it will be more of the same from Carlton in 2022...another 7-8 win season.

List management doesn't seem to be the issue, 7 - 8 wins, was that before the bye?

You have a good top line, no doubt. Don't think anybody ddisagrees with that.

IMHO a side building needs to nail both draft picks and mature talent to set standards and do the heavy lifting.

Carlton have got less return than many hoped from multiple early draft picks, and not sure who the strong quality mature players are that they have brought in over the last 5 years? Hence the opinion is that the list is shallow and still not ready to break out.

People talk "talent" but all AFL footballers are talented, what you need is blokes who are mentally resilient and able to work hard, drive standards and do the team things...not sure that Martin, Williams, Saad, McGovern do that, and clear that guys like Fasolo, Mullet, Shaw were never going to.

IMHO that is stalling any "break-out" from mid table mediocrity.

And re your AA quality players, are you talking future projected, current or past?? Not sure how many you think you have....you have 3 clear ones, and a Q on whether Cripps can get back to that level...the rest is hopeful stuff.

Forget the top teams who clearly have stronger lists

The teams around the mark "in the mix" if you will.

Freo have had 5 different players in AA squad in the last 2 years - Fyfe, Ryan, Taberner, Darcy and Mundy

Essendon had 4 - Ridley, Stringer, Merrett, Parish

Collingwood ourselves have had 4 - Adams, Maynard, Moore and Pendles

Might have your Carlton crew wanting to have me back up my thoughts but ladder / squad predictions for 2022

Dees, Dogs, Lions, Giants are for top 4, the strong teams

Tigers, Cats, Power and Sydney to round out the 8

Eagles the danger to really fall away, but still have them Essendon and StKilda over Carlton in 2022.

So Carlton back with Freo, Pies, Hawks etc. hoping to stay out of the bottom 4.

Really don't get how it is supposedly an unrealistic opinion to have Carlton not breaking out and having another season around 12th.

Might not be what Carlton fans want to read, a few of the Carlton crew probably better sticking to the bluebagger forums if they only want positive spin and people agreeing with their position.

Or do people challenge each other to "stake their account" over on bluebagger forums too if having a different opinion?

Hoping to stay out of the bottom 4? You even had the Dockers around the same mark. You really arent that good at analysis are you

8 if you're lucky, probably less given the gaping holes in your list.

Not a bad outcome so far given our gaping holes

No avatar. I made the bet. You’ve seen the terms. More wins or percentage and I spend the summer talking cricket. That’s it

Got it. The cut of your jib has been noted

I like the cut of your jib Stabby, unlike the trolls in this thread. But given we have already won more than 7 games, long or short sleeve jumper for your avatar update?

How long does squad output remain poor until Carlton fans realise that the squad isn't good enough?

Carlton for many years traded and drafted the wrong players.

List looks fine to me to win more than your prediction

You dont win many games if you have a poor midfield. Hewett and Cerra are good soldiers to add, but as a group still one of the poorer collections going.

You are putting plenty of ruck eggs in the TDK basket, uncertain if he is ready.

Also unclear who your best lockdown defender is, Plowman gets exposed way too often. You now also lack the big KPD with Jones pulling the pin.

Up forward question marks on all spots except McKay.

So yes, heading into 2022 still think many better lists than Carlton's, and predicting them to once again hover around 12th. Have even listed teams who I think will finish above Carlton earlier in the thread.

At least you are consistent with the prediction of 12th

The improvement needs to come from that next tier of players on their respective lists.

(I am not saying these are as good as each other)

It is the next tier of guys on each list who will decide the fortunes of each team. The returning guys as well who missed large chunks of football in 2021.

I have far more faith in Harry Jones, Sam Draper and Nik Cox and Archie Perkins improving Essendon as a team than I do Liam Stocker, Paddy Dow, Brodie Kemp or Will Setterfield / Tom De Koning.


Before anyone gets there nickers in a knot, yes, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering, McKay probably do have Parish, Merrett, Ridley and Stringer covered (not by much might I add) but it is that direct next tier that I again have more faith in. Dyson Heppell, Andy McGrath, Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith, Tippa (unsure on when he resumes but lets make him a place holder for effect) than I do on Adam Cerra, Zac Williams, Adam Saad, George Hewitt.

We haven't even made it to the initial grouping I was discussing before the talent really falls away for Carlton. Our third tier is guys like Kyle Langford, Jayden Laverde, Nick Hind, Will Snelling, James Stewart Mason Redman who despite not being household names really improved exponentially from the previous season hence the reasons for our success (one of the youngest on average games played sides most weeks and still managed finals).

These guys may not be household names but are much better than Carlton's group imho. Ed Curnow, Marc Pittonet, Jack Martin, Nic Newman etc.


then we hit that group I really take aim at for both of these sides. Who ever can explode in 2022 will go a long way to helping there respective side take aim this year.

Tell me again about Essendon having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players

If we are using injured best 22 players who missed large chunks of football last year then Dylan Shiel is a significantly better player than Charlie Curnow when at his best whilst Hurley out kinda cancels out Docherty.

I don't get this he did it against your mob so they're s**t analysis you and your supporters constantly use.

I don't see how "both sides are at a similar level list wise" when we played finals (forgive the result versus the Dogs, we overachieved by getting there) whilst Carlton finished 3 games (8 points and -20.6% behind 8th placed Essendon).

Shiel better than Curnow? Hurley cancels out Doc? I was wrong and you were right on one thing, both sides aren't similar to push out 11 -13 wins this year

Why Carlton ? What makes them so special that they all of a sudden leap frog a number of sides and into the finals?

I can say that most years a team comes from the clouds and finishes in the top 4. 2022 will be Essendon. Just because.


I don't want basics, I want exacts. Reasons. You can make a case that Carlton will leap frog Fremantle (injuries, lack of depth), St.Kilda (just s**t despite having an ageing list) even Richmond (will they finally slide?). GWS may very well fall. Those very same metrics you suggest could apply to Hawthorn (a much better spread of players), Adelaide (A LOT of scope to improve) or even Gold Coast who the time is now or never to make a mark on the AFL.

All good to puff your chest but give me exacts why it will be Carlton please

You sure you didn't mean Essendon finishing bottom 4? You were given reasons, but you just didn't want to accept that you had a soft draw last year

??
More than happy to discuss differences of opinion on projection for Carlton 2022, and engage with them.

Stopped engaging with those who only want to reply based on team supported, for me Collingwood.

My opinion is that 2022 will be a consolidation year - will take Voss time to make significant change, Hewett and Cerra good steps in the right direction. But mistakes from past, underwhelming draft picks and mature recruits (won't list then all again), which IMHO have left Carlton's list still skinny and reliant on too few, will prevent any breakout in 2022.

I don't see Essendon jumping up to top4 year either, but they will finish above Carlton as they have a stronger and deeper list heading into 2022.

Essendon higher than Carlton, wrong again

Michael Voss getting another job as senior coach just shows how hard Carlton had to scrape the bottom of the barrel searching for a new coach. Carlton right now are exactly where Richmond were at 1999 off season/2000 pre season.

No coach wanted to touch Richmond with a 10 foot pole back then due to their senior coach revolving door and no coach wanted to touch Carlton with a 10 foot pole when they were looking for a senior coach recently. Richmond had to scrape the bottom of the barrel really hard for Danny Frawley to get a job as a senior coach much like Carlton had to do with Voss.

Carlton better hope and pray Voss isn't a flop, because either way they'll be stuck with him for 5 years much like how Richmond were stuck with Frawley for 5 years. Although Frawley took Richmond to a preliminary final and the odds of Voss taking Carlton to a preliminary final in the next 5 years are about 500 to 1.

I would be happy to scrape the bottom of the barrel again with Voss, what about Rutten

We won‘t be undefeated, he may win the rising star and he wont win the Brownlow.

Also, Carlton will not make the eight; Essendon may scrape into the eight with at eighth, but will not win a final if they do.

Well looks like we will make the 8, with Essendon not even close

Blues absolutely no chance, the biggest losers of the 21st century and no chance of turning this around while they continually overrate their list bringing in average players on superstar wages.
Bombers more likely but I have a feeling they will drop back a little this year due to the age profile of the list, before emerging in 2023/4 as genuine contenders.

Absolutely no chance?

 

[Juddernaut08]

Been very quiet in here in recent times, should leave this for when both sides are in their bye round after this week, but let's review some of the predictions and so called "analysis" before the start of the season




16th? That is some level of trolling



I see you are still really hedging your bets, with the range of 9th to 18th and still so far off the mark


List management doesn't seem to be the issue, 7 - 8 wins, was that before the bye?


Hoping to stay out of the bottom 4? You even had the Dockers around the same mark. You really arent that good at analysis are you



Not a bad outcome so far given our gaping holes





I like the cut of your jib Stabby, unlike the trolls in this thread. But given we have already won more than 7 games, long or short sleeve jumper for your avatar update?



List looks fine to me to win more than your prediction



At least you are consistent with the prediction of 12th



Tell me again about Essendon having better 2nd, 3rd, 4th tier players



Shiel better than Curnow? Hurley cancels out Doc? I was wrong and you were right on one thing, both sides aren't similar to push out 11 -13 wins this year



You sure you didn't mean Essendon finishing bottom 4? You were given reasons, but you just didn't want to accept that you had a soft draw last year



Essendon higher than Carlton, wrong again



I would be happy to scrape the bottom of the barrel again with Voss, what about Rutten



Well looks like we will make the 8, with Essendon not even close



Absolutely no chance?

Arrow goes bang!

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

BANG

 

[Thrawn]

If we are using injured best 22 players who missed large chunks of football last year then Dylan Shiel is a significantly better player than Charlie Curnow when at his best whilst Hurley out kinda cancels out Docherty.

You insult Yoda's name. For shame.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Hows this one working out?

With hindsight? not well.

In feb 22 I did not expect essendons entire midfield to suddenly not give a rats ass. But here we are.

Are you also going to retrospectively quote the post where I admitted Carlton were far ahead? Or you just gonna let that one slide?

 

[JayJ20]

I disagree. Going trade heavy is bad when you look at names rather than how they fit your side. Recruiting Saad and Williams last year was exactly that. They only really needed Saad.

This year however, all the players they brought in make sense and address big weaknesses. Cerra, Hewett and Young all complement their list. It gives them a good platform to build on, especially if players like Kemp, Setterfield, Stocker and Dow realise their potential.

The only problem I see with their list is their forwardline, which relies too much on McKay. Let's see what they do with that.

I don't have that much of an issue with spending pick 8 on Saad tbh. I think there are worse things they've done.
I'm more speaking about their list management in the last 2-3 years. Everyone knows they weren't great before that. Other than Williams, I think they've done a decent job.

Richmond built a dynasty on the back of a handful of A-graders and supporting players that complement their list well. Carlton certainly have the A-grade talent to make it happen. They just need to continue building on players that provide decent support to those A-graders. I think players like Young, Saad and Hewett are perfect players to provide that support. Sure their list management is a little more short-term than it ideally should be, but I don't think it's going to hinder their chances of contending within the next 3-5 years.

People always ask this question without mentioning that the top 8 has 2-4 teams dropping out every year, including one or even two top 4 teams. There's also a team that didn't make the 8 that finishes in the top 4.

History suggests that at least one, possibly two of Bulldogs, Melbourne, Geelong, Port and Brisbane miss the top 8 entirely.
Looking at it, teams that lose the grand final by 40+ points typically don't make finals the next year (eg GWS 2020, Adelaide 2018) so they are a chance of missing the 8 depending on how much that game hurt their confidence.
Port and Geelong were both smashed by 70+ points so their confidence could also have taken a hit.

I was pretty spot on with most of my assessment. Carlton have certainly exceeded expectations (especially Curnow), but the midfield they built was always going to give them the ability to improve. If only a certain other club looked at strengthen their midfield.

 

[Yoda_]

With hindsight? not well.

In feb 22 I did not expect essendons entire midfield to suddenly not give a rats ass. But here we are.

Are you also going to retrospectively quote the post where I admitted Carlton were far ahead? Or you just gonna let that one slide?

Thrawn trawled through posts from months and months ago.. There is a trend here

 

[Yoda_]

Nice effort but again comprehension has never been your strong suit Arr0w

As always read and interpret how you wish but that's ok.. After all this time I wouldn't expect anything less. I took you off ignored member to see why so many were biting at you. Explains the effort.

I'll give you an 8 for effort though. Well done. Kudo's to your Blues for how well they are travelling but I'll maintain at the time of writing not much was wrong with what I suggested. .

 

[Arr0w]

Nice effort but again comprehension has never been your strong suit Arr0w

As always read and interpret how you wish but that's ok.. After all this time I wouldn't expect anything less. I took you off ignored member to see why so many were biting at you. Explains the effort.

I'll give you an 8 for effort though. Well done. Kudo's to your Blues for how well they are travelling but I'll maintain at the time of writing not much was wrong with what I suggested. .

No interpretation needed, it's all there for everyone to see what you believed, rather than what was reality, even back then

Just like stating the Tigers were a bottom 6 side after we beat them

I think it's called, being salty

 

[Yoda_]

No interpretation needed, it's all there for everyone to see what you believed, rather than what was reality, even back then

Just like stating the Tigers were a bottom 6 side after we beat them

I think it's called, being salty

More evidence your comprehension is not strong. Never said they were a bottom 6 side in this thread. Suggested they could slip but never stated like you want to believe.

Please, go on.

 

[Arr0w]

More evidence your comprehension is not strong. Never said they were a bottom 6 side in this thread. Suggested they could slip but never stated like you want to believe.

Please, go on.

Not in this thread, but in another

And no, you didn't suggest they could slip, you stated they were a bottom 6 side, so just stop before you really embarrass yourself

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Nice effort but again comprehension has never been your strong suit Arr0w

As always read and interpret how you wish but that's ok.. After all this time I wouldn't expect anything less. I took you off ignored member to see why so many were biting at you. Explains the effort.

I'll give you an 8 for effort though. Well done. Kudo's to your Blues for how well they are travelling but I'll maintain at the time of writing not much was wrong with what I suggested. .

 

[Juddernaut08]

I was pretty spot on with most of my assessment. Carlton have certainly exceeded expectations (especially Curnow), but the midfield they built was always going to give them the ability to improve. If only a certain other club looked at strengthen their midfield.

Midfield can be fixed pretty quickly

12 months we were playing an injured Cripps, Walsh and witches hats as our midfield.

Lob was a joke, Dow couldnt find the ball and I was hanging all my hope in SPS developing into a gun. Setterfield was getting games. Kennedy was on the verge of delisting.

Bombers have a better foundation of a midfied than we did by far. One offseason is all it takes, but you do need a bit of luck (like Hewett) also.

 

[Yoda_]

Nope, been pretty consistent right throughout..

Happy to go through points at the time of writing.. May as well say that at the time of drafting Paddy Dow was such a s**t selection at pick 3.

 

[Yoda_]

Midfield can be fixed pretty quickly

12 months we were playing an injured Cripps, Walsh and witches hats as our midfield.

Lob was a joke, Dow couldnt find the ball and I was hanging all my hope in SPS developing into a gun. Setterfield was getting games. Kennedy was on the verge of delisting.

Bombers have a better foundation of a midfied than we did by far. One offseason is all it takes, but you do need a bit of luck (like Hewett) also.

This is why I don't have you on ignore Juddernaut. A reasonably debate about what the topic is.


A lot has gone right for the blues this year. The players that needed to take a leap have whilst the kids have simply gotten onto the park more often. Kudos to not only Voss but the medical staff for getting them consistently on the park in 2022.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Nope, been pretty consistent right throughout..

Happy to go through points at the time of writing.. May as well say that at the time of drafting Paddy Dow was such a s**t selection at pick 3.

in hindsight he was.

 

[Juddernaut08]

This is why I don't have you on ignore Juddernaut. A reasonably debate about what the topic is.


A lot has gone right for the blues this year. The players that needed to take a leap have whilst the kids have simply gotten onto the park more often. Kudos to not only Voss but the medical staff for getting them consistently on the park in 2022.

Cheers but let's not get too sappy.

Our medicos have been ok, we still have the 3rd longest injury list after eagles and bombers though.

We've been fortunate to have a healthy midfield though which covers a multitude of sins when it dominates.

 

[Yoda_]

in hindsight he was.

Exactly my point with what has been written in this thread. At the time of writing, a lot was correct. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and kudos to Michael Voss and the rest of the Carlton team for getting them churning along like a well oiled machine.

 

[Yoda_]

Cheers but let's not get too sappy.

Our medicos have been ok, we still have the 3rd longest injury list after eagles and bombers though.

We've been fortunate to have a healthy midfield though which covers a multitude of sins when it dominates.

Was more in reference to seeing consistent stints on the ground from Curnow.C, Cripps getting back to his best etc.