Will Geelong win the 2017 premiership ?

[QuietB]

But you are missing the point that improvement can come from players already on the list, you don't necessarily have to bring in an established player from another club to fill a position from leaving players. Not everyone is a superstar in their first year as an 18 year old. Caddy out means more midfield time for blokes like Menegola, Lang, Cockatoo and GHS. Trying to state as fact that 'because player XYZ has left and no player of equivalent talent was brought in means you are going to be worse off' isn't correct, because the opportunity it opens up for others could lead to improvement. Or it might not.

I dont disagree with that. But Geelong are dealing with exactly the same issues Hawthorn are dealing with. For every bit of improvement in a young player, there is a falling away by a senior player.

Hodge/Burgoyne/Gibson and Lonegon/Mackie/Taylor are all on the wrong side of 30 and Mitchell/Lewis and Bartel/Enright are gone. For every bit the respective teams young players might improve these guys are likely to get worse or are not there at all.

 

[PenAndPaper]

I think a prelim final is a very real possibility for Geelong. Their squad is solid especially through the midfield but the forward line is lacking, particularly in a quality small forward who can kick 40+.

Will definitely be thereabouts but I don't think they will be a genuine flag contender.

 

[MotleyLemon]

I think a prelim final is a very real possibility for Geelong. Their squad is solid especially through the midfield but the forward line is lacking, particularly in a quality small forward who can kick 40+.

Will definitely be thereabouts but I don't think they will be a genuine flag contender.

Didn't Motlop kick 38 in a down year last year?

 

[fpm84]

I dont disagree with that. But Geelong are dealing with exactly the same issues Hawthorn are dealing with. For every bit of improvement in a young player, there is a falling away by a senior player.

Hodge/Burgoyne/Gibson and Lonegon/Mackie/Taylor are all on the wrong side of 30 and Mitchell/Lewis and Bartel/Enright are gone. For every bit the respective teams young players might improve these guys are likely to get worse or are not there at all.

For mine, the key difference here is that Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are still clearly in Hawthorn's best half-dozen players.

Taylor may make it into ours, but he was outperformed by Lachie Henderson down back last season, and has clearly declined over the past 18 months. As for Mackie and Lonergan, you only need to check out our board to see that many supporters query their place not only in our best 22 but on our list.

 

[fpm84]

I think a prelim final is a very real possibility for Geelong. Their squad is solid especially through the midfield but the forward line is lacking, particularly in a quality small forward who can kick 40+.

Will definitely be thereabouts but I don't think they will be a genuine flag contender.

Motlop kicked 38 goals in what was recognised by everyone as a down season, Menzel kicked 33 in 18.

We move the ball terrible into our forward 50 - hey, let's bomb it on Hawkins' head again! - but the talent is there.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Didn't Motlop kick 38 in a down year last year?

Yep he did but that's not 40+
Menzel could be the one though, that guy is a freak!

Delivery is definitely your biggest issue there for sure. Can't keep bombing it to Hawkins without a heap of quality crumbers around him.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Well technically by your logic Geelong improved when Ablett left because they won the premiership the next year

I would argue that Geelong were more or less at the same level from 2007-2011 with only injuries (2010) or choking (2008) causing them to miss out at times.

Then Geelong lost lots of players and got worse.

Hawthorn were at the same level from 2012-1015 with only choking (2012) causing them to miss out one time.

Then Hawthorn lost lots of players and got worse.

If you want to argue losing a brownlow medalist, a 6 x all Australian and another senior player and only replacing them with a Carlton HBF'er is going to improve you then I want some of what you are smoking.

You're missing the point I'm making - perhaps I'm not explaining it well.

We are talking about seasons 2016 and 2017 in isolation - your initial argument was that Geelong would definitely be worse in 2017 than in 2016 due to the retirement of Enright. My argument was that your logic was far too simplified and that you are only guessing (or hoping). I gave the Ablett/Franklin trades as obvious examples of why I think your logic is too simple - if it was true, then Geelong in 2011 and Hawthorn in 2013 would have had to have declined. But they didn't. The surrouding years are irrelevant.

My point is that it isn't as simple as "team X lost player Y, therefore team X is worse off by the value of Y". There are many factors that can offset the loss of a player - improvement in younger players, gameplan changes, players traded in (which you've acknowledged), team mates getting to know each other/the gameplan better (currently an issue at Geelong due to so many new faces in the team over the last few years), injuries, the improvement/decline in other teams etc.

Who knows how much effect any of that will have? No one.

Re the bolded - I never said anything like that, don't put words in my mouth.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Taylor may make it into ours, but he was outperformed by Lachie Henderson down back last season, and has clearly declined over the past 18 months.

had a laugh at this. If Taylor goes up forward or get injured your season is done, Henderson leading a backline is a very scary proposition

 

[Tyler Hodges]

For mine, the key difference here is that Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are still clearly in Hawthorn's best half-dozen players.

Hodge and Gibson aren't in our best 5-6 anymore, last year was evidence of that.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Hodge and Gibson aren't in our best 5-6 anymore, last year was evidence of that.

1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes
2. Jordan Lewis – 157
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156
4. Grant Birchall – 152
5. Cyril Rioli – 148
6. Isaac Smith – 146
7. Jack Gunston – 142
8. Josh Gibson – 135
9. James Frawley – 127
10. Luke Breust – 124

Yeah Gibson is more like 8th.

 

[PenAndPaper]

1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes
2. Jordan Lewis – 157
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156
4. Grant Birchall – 152
5. Cyril Rioli – 148
6. Isaac Smith – 146
7. Jack Gunston – 142
8. Josh Gibson – 135
9. James Frawley – 127
10. Luke Breust – 124

Yeah Gibson is more like 8th.

Yep and that is not the top half dozen like was stated...
Even if you take out Mitchell and Lewis you can safely put in Mitchell and Roughie to replace them above Gibbo.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Yep and that is not the top half dozen like was stated...
Even if you take out Mitchell and Lewis you can safely put in Mitchell and Roughie to replace them above Gibbo.

And 34 year old Burgoyne finished 3rd?

Tom Mitchell is allegedly going to finish above Gibbo, so I'll take that to mean 7th or higher?

Interesting that at Sydney, he's never finished higher than 8th?

2016 8th
2015 9th
2014 - outside top 10
2013 - outside top 10

But suddenly when he comes to Hawthorn, as notionally your number one mid, he's going to light it up?

Please.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Yep and that is not the top half dozen like was stated...
Even if you take out Mitchell and Lewis you can safely put in Mitchell and Roughie to replace them above Gibbo.

What about Vickery? He is the next David Hale is he not? ..... On topic we will max out in making a prelim this season.... I hope for more but it is hard too see.

 

[threesixpio]

What about Vickery? He is the next David Hale is he not? ..... On topic we will max out in making a prelim this season.... I hope for more but it is hard too see.

Isn't there a Hawthorn thread to post this?

And 34 year old Burgoyne finished 3rd?

Tom Mitchell is allegedly going to finish above Gibbo, so I'll take that to mean 7th or higher?

Interesting that at Sydney, he's never finished higher than 8th?

2016 8th
2015 9th
2014 - outside top 10
2013 - outside top 10

But suddenly when he comes to Hawthorn, as notionally your number one mid, he's going to light it up?

Please.

and this

1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes
2. Jordan Lewis – 157
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156
4. Grant Birchall – 152
5. Cyril Rioli – 148
6. Isaac Smith – 146
7. Jack Gunston – 142
8. Josh Gibson – 135
9. James Frawley – 127
10. Luke Breust – 124

Yeah Gibson is more like 8th.

and

I give up

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Is it worth merging the "Hawthorn - 2017" and "Geelong - 2017" threads?

They seem to turn out surprisingly similar.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Isn't there a Hawthorn thread to post this?

and this

and

I give up

Take your O'Rourke Awakens!! username to this thread https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/is-orourkes-contract-killing-hawks-depth.1127357/

 

[QuietB]

And 34 year old Burgoyne finished 3rd?

Tom Mitchell is allegedly going to finish above Gibbo, so I'll take that to mean 7th or higher?

Interesting that at Sydney, he's never finished higher than 8th?

2016 8th
2015 9th
2014 - outside top 10
2013 - outside top 10

But suddenly when he comes to Hawthorn, as notionally your number one mid, he's going to light it up?

Please.

2016 8th 26 games
2015 9th 19 games
2014 - outside top 10 6 games
2013 - outside top 10 14 games and debut season

 

[MotleyLemon]

2016 8th 26 games
2015 9th 19 games
2014 - outside top 10 6 games
2013 - outside top 10 14 games and debut season

?

What's your point? He's played every possible game last year and finished 8th, in a career best year, as probably the Swans 4th midfielder, getting absolutely no attention from the opposition?

 

[QuietB]

?

What's your point? He's played every possible game last year and finished 8th, in a career best year, as probably the Swans 4th midfielder, getting absolutely no attention from the opposition?

And 5 of the 7 players ahead of him were named All Australian last year - so what?

It is well known that;

1. Sydney have the best top end talent in the league
2. Longmire never liked T Mitchell

 

[Tyler Hodges]

1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes
2. Jordan Lewis – 157
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156
4. Grant Birchall – 152
5. Cyril Rioli – 148
6. Isaac Smith – 146
7. Jack Gunston – 142
8. Josh Gibson – 135
9. James Frawley – 127
10. Luke Breust – 124

Yeah Gibson is more like 8th.

Yep, not in top half dozen. I stick to my original statement

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Is it worth merging the "Hawthorn - 2017" and "Geelong - 2017" threads?

They seem to turn out surprisingly similar.

Rich coming from a perennial contributor like yourself

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Rich coming from a perennial contributor like yourself

I blame myself for most of it.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Are Geelong supporters happy with the game plan?

The slow ball movement, not playing on, (fair summary) worked defensively for them last season

Will it win a premiership?

Is it not too similar to the M Williams Port and Richmond style of game that repeatedly gets caught out in finals?

Genuine query, not trolling

 

[MotleyLemon]

Are Geelong supporters happy with the game plan?

The slow ball movement, not playing on, (fair summary) worked defensively for them last season

Will it win a premiership?

Is it not too similar to the M Williams Port and Richmond style of game that repeatedly gets caught out in finals?

Genuine query, not trolling

It's fine, until they need to go inside 50, at which point there appears to be no method to anything. Currently the plan is either bomb it to Hawkins with 3 blokes on him, or try and identify a 1 on 1, then kick "fat side" to one of these stationary targets and hope they beat their man.

We have an awful culture of blokes trying to be too unselfish and not taking the shot themselves. Infuriating.

 

[PenAndPaper]

And 34 year old Burgoyne finished 3rd?

Tom Mitchell is allegedly going to finish above Gibbo, so I'll take that to mean 7th or higher?

Interesting that at Sydney, he's never finished higher than 8th?

2016 8th
2015 9th
2014 - outside top 10
2013 - outside top 10

But suddenly when he comes to Hawthorn, as notionally your number one mid, he's going to light it up?

Please.

Still does not go against what he said of the top dozen finish. You're arguing with no point at all because the fact is they weren't top half dozen.

As for Tom Mitchell it's pretty clear that Longmire wasn't much a fan of him and he's 23 in swans side that had an established midfield.

You've really got no argument but because I'm a Hawks fan you feel the need to.