Will Hawthorn make the 8?

[Angus Young]

you boys are confident... i like it

i think we win 10 to 12 games and just miss

 

[KermitJagger]

Will they make the 8? Tough without Mitchell (basically 2:1 in clearances compared to his next teammate, Wingard and Scully complement that more than replace it) but one of about 15 teams that can.

2nd to 12th went 16-15-15-14-14-13-13-12-12-12-12 wins last year. Ridiculously even. Hawthorn a middle 6 side IMO but I wouldn't be ruling anyone outside the bottom 3 out of top 8 contention before the season starts.

This is a good example of looking at Hawthorn and the top 8 in a balanced way.

It will be tough; removal of Tom Mitchell from a midfield that was obviously so dependent on him does concern me, also the fact that he was such a workhorse and solid defensively. It'll be difficult to adapt.

I honestly don't think there are too many clubs who have improved their list position enough to move ahead though. Of those that finished within swinging distance behind us last year, only Essendon, Melbourne and maybe North have improved their list quality in any substantial way. Adelaide should improve by way of getting players back, but which other club can you look at and say they'll definitely finish ahead of Hawthorn as it sits now?

 

[WWSD]

Good for them, they won't find a match.

Hawthorn could finish bottom 4 for the next 5 years, and you'll still believe your club did everything right. Again, no point in arguing with someone who reacts aggressively to any form of criticism.

You can criticise Hawthorn all you want. North Melbourne have done the exact same approach but with no luck offering the million dollar offers to free agents like a desperate small club.

Now just because sides like Carlton, Essendon and St Kilda for example have a ton of first round picks on their list it doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to turn that into success. How many Premierships have those teams won combined since 2004? Zero.

I’ll take the Hawks approach over any other teams when it comes to list management, trading, drafting, free agency etc.

 

[WWSD]

Almost certainly not.

Bookmarked. Will bump this post come September.

 

[Scotland]

I’d say Richmond, West Coast, GWS and Collingwood will be the top four teams. Hawthorn will likely finish 5th-8th and maybe get bundled out in the first week. A lot of people aren’t taking the Hawks draw into consideration though. I don’t think it’s that bad.

Just had a gander. I'd expect them to really battle against Adelaide Rd 1, Melbourne Rd 7, Richmond Rd 9, GWS Rd 21, WC Rd 23. The rest are varying degrees of winnable, but like every year teams will win against top 8 sides away and then lose to Brisbane so tipping is for mugs. If I counted correctly I think 9 games against teams from the 7th-12th bracket of last year. GWS, Geelong, North, Port, Essendon, Adelaide are all teams that range significantly in people's pre-season predictions. At least we're not playing you at Etihad again.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Just had a gander. I'd expect them to really battle against Adelaide Rd 1, Melbourne Rd 7, Richmond Rd 9, GWS Rd 21, WC Rd 23. The rest are varying degrees of winnable, but like every year teams will win against top 8 sides away and then lose to Brisbane so tipping is for mugs. If I counted correctly I think 9 games against teams from the 7th-12th bracket of last year. GWS, Geelong, North, Port, Essendon, Adelaide are all teams that range significantly in people's pre-season predictions. At least we're not playing you at Etihad again.

You and the 20k Hawthorn supporters that refuse to go to that soulless husk of a venue.

 

[Scotland]

This is a good example of looking at Hawthorn and the top 8 in a balanced way.

It will be tough; removal of Tom Mitchell from a midfield that was obviously so dependent on him does concern me, also the fact that he was such a workhorse and solid defensively. It'll be difficult to adapt.

Is 2 months of pre-season enough time to adapt for Rd 1? 2017 Hawthorn were putrid then improved after the first month and finished 10th/11th. Hard to recover from a slow start.

I honestly don't think there are too many clubs who have improved their list position enough to move ahead though. Of those that finished within swinging distance behind us last year, only Essendon, Melbourne and maybe North have improved their list quality in any substantial way. Adelaide should improve by way of getting players back, but which other club can you look at and say they'll definitely finish ahead of Hawthorn as it sits now?

I think Essendon have. Shiel is a quality addition and they basically played the season without Daniher last year. But they are notorious for being top 4 one week and bottom 4 the next. Geelong meh, one last shot with Dad's army. GWS lost a few, but also played last year with an unstable 22. Kelly, Cameron, Deledio, Greene, Patton, Williams all missed at least 5 games. Port and Adelaide * knows. Port were 11-4 and ran over a banana peel. Adelaide's team on paper isn't weaker than it was in 2017.

 

[Scotland]

You and the 20k Hawthorn supporters that refuse to go to that soulless husk of a venue.

Nobody except the AFL wants WC playing Hawthorn there.

 

[Back One Out]

Jaeger O'Meara still hasn't hit his 2013-2014 form

Nah. That's crap. O'Meara had his best season last year. Reasonable form in what was a comeback year while still building his fitness base & confidence back to pre-injury levels.

He averaged 24 disposals per game which was 3 more than he averaged in 2013 or 2014.

13 Brownlow votes - level with Kelly, Oliver, Ward & Heppell and 1 vote behind Selwood, Ablett, Wines & Macrae
Better than the 4 votes and 1 vote he polled in his first 2 seasons.

O'Meara also placed 5th in the club B&F award just 6 votes shy of 2nd place (despite missing 3 games). Aside from Mitchell dominating, It was a pretty competitive count and the Hawks finished fourth on the ladder. So that makes his 2018 season better than his 3rd and 5th placings for a mediocre injury-ravaged team which lost more games than it won

2018 B&F
163 Tom Mitchell, 24 games (All Australian)
127 Blake Hardwick, 24 games
125 Isaac Smith, 24 games
121 Jack Gunston, 23 games (All Australian)
120 Jaeger O'Meara, 21 games
119 Luke Breust, 24 games (All Australian)
112 Ben Stratton, 23 games
99 Ben McEvoy, 19 games
99 Liam Shiels, 23 games
87 James Sicily, 16 games

Votes per game:
6.79 Tom Mitchell
5.71 Jaeger O'Meara
5.44 James Sicily
5.29 Blake Hardwick
5.26 Jack Gunston
5.21 Ben McEvoy
5.21 Isaac Smith
4.96 Luke Breust
4.87 Ben Stratton
4.30 Liam Shiels

 

[Scotland]

You can criticise Hawthorn all you want. North Melbourne have done the exact same approach but with no luck offering the million dollar offers to free agents like a desperate small club.

I suggest you mosey on over to the D&T board. North signed Jared Polec, Dom Tyson, Aaron Hall and Jasper Pittard in the off season. Top 4 locks now.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Is 2 months of pre-season enough time to adapt for Rd 1? 2017 Hawthorn were putrid then improved after the first month and finished 10th/11th. Hard to recover from a slow start.

It's a very good point. The 2017 "ladder from rd.8" onwards had Hawthorn 4th, only one game behind 1st. That horrible start cost us a finals spot, and given how the rest of the season went, we could have had the threepeat (of straight sets).

Clarkson tried to change the tactical focus in 2017, it didn't gel/mesh and under matchday pressure fell away. It was noted about rd.6 or so we had more off-site training (tactical and setups away from prying eyes) and the gameplan switch was almost immediate.

 

[Scotland]

It's a very good point. The 2017 "ladder from rd.8" onwards had Hawthorn 4th, only one game behind 1st. That horrible start cost us a finals spot, and given how the rest of the season went, we could have had the threepeat (of straight sets).

Clarkson tried to change the tactical focus in 2017, it didn't gel/mesh and under matchday pressure fell away. It was noted about rd.6 or so we had more off-site training (tactical and setups away from prying eyes) and the gameplan switch was almost immediate.

It was also pretty irrelevant because the season goes for 22 games, not 18. At Rd 8 last year Richmond & WC were both 7-1 and ended up finishing 1 & 2. Hawthorn finishing the season 10-4 and Collingwood & Richmond 11-3 compared to our 9-5 doesn't really mean anything. Form ladder didn't help Richmond or Hawthorn make the GF. Obviously you want to have form heading into finals but if you don't have at least 13/14 wins on the board it doesn't count for much.

My point was more about time taken to adapt. Sometimes teams take a while to adapt to changes in personnel, game plan etc. and other times it's pretty seamless. I thought we were cooked losing our CHB 5 minutes into the season in 2015 after losing FB in pre-season and our stalwart FB having recently retired and we finished 2nd on the ladder. Mitchell's absence could be the making of someone else a la his coach namesake, or his team might be poo. Time will tell.

 

[perplexed]

Dreadful based on depth or dreadful based on quality? There 2 different things. If your arguing that the quality is dreadful than your an idiot. Yes without Mitchell it's 1 key pillar missing from there but the players still in there are very good players. If your saying shiels is crap, Worpel is a spud and Howe is terrible for eg you don't watch many hawks games. Our issue isn't quality it's that we don't bat that deep.

I must be an idiot.
When I look at Hawthorn's midfield I see a shallow mix of decent players past their prime (except for Smith who is still excellent) and young guys who could be very good one day but can't be relied upon to provide consistent output yet.
Pretty much every other team has a deeper midfield (except GC) with a couple of gun mids in their prime.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I must be an idiot.
When I look at Hawthorn's midfield I see a shallow mix of decent players past their prime (except for Smith who is still excellent) and young guys who could be very good one day but can't be relied upon to provide consistent output yet.
Pretty much every other team has a deeper midfield (except GC) with a couple of gun mids in their prime.

No excuses for every team this year when they come up against the Hawks then, I guess.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not the most intelligent poster, are you?

Says the guy who thinks that Melbourne “dismantled Hawthorn” last year.

 

[perplexed]

No excuses for every team this year when they come up against the Hawks then, I guess.

There's always injuries ...... and umpires .... and weather ...... and six day breaks .......

 

[Mcgearzz]

Will the Hawks finally miss the finals this year?

They missed 2017. And without Mitchell probably yes

 

[Gavin Excell]

Says the guy who thinks that Melbourne “dismantled Hawthorn” last year.

Won by 6 goals from memory leading all night.

Melb had hawks measure that final

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Won by 6 goals from memory leading all night.

Melb had hawks measure that final

2 goals down halfway through the last and made Melbourne play our game for majority of the night.

They followed the next week by letting Eagles have it their own way too.

 

[Gavin Excell]

2 goals down halfway through the last and made Melbourne play our game for majority of the night.

They followed the next week by letting Eagles have it their own way too.

Please

Trailed all night 5 goals down 3 qtr time

Dees cue in the rack

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Please

Trailed all night 5 goals down 3 qtr time

Dees cue in the rack

“I think they took a step backwards last night, Melbourne. Hawthorn, if they had taken their opportunities, they’d have been three or four goals in front at half-time and it’s a whole different ball game then,” King told SEN on Saturday.
“If Melbourne play like that next week, they’ll get beaten by 12 goals. West Coast play a similar brand, but they’ve got better stocks.
“Melbourne has got some work to do this week. They’ve got to iron out a few little bugs because they were humbled in that first half.
“Their first half was fantastic, Hawthorn. They should’ve had a strong lead and didn’t.”
“Sometimes you can gloss over your wins and say we’re going well and winning, but I’m telling you now, if they do that next weekend, their season will be over.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Played on hawthorn terms

Ha while losing by 6 goals

Laughable

 

[Scotland]

Melbourne were never seriously threatened by Geelong or Hawthorn. And Richmond were never seriously threatened by Hawthorn either.

WC vs Coll x 2 and Coll vs GWS were the only finals that could have gone either way. And the Pies beat GWS by 10 behinds anyway.

 

[Scotland]

Kingy is a special unit. LOL @ his prediction though. Thanks Davo.

Hawthorn weren't disgraced in any of their two finals but one shouldn't mistake brief patches of breaking even or being slightly on top with controlling the game.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Hawks will make the 8.

We've got a bunch of guys like Sicily, Hardwick, Impey, Howe, Cousins, Worpel that have either been around for a while or are improving rapidly.
They won't all be A graders - but it seems that throughout Clarkson's entire hawthorn coaching career we've only had one or two midfielders that external people rate while making grand finals and winning them.
That's while we still that senior (but not crippled) premiership crop of McEvoy, Gunston Stratton, Smith, Breust, Puopolo & guys like O'Meara and Scully on the list.

There's just too much quality in that list to finish in the bottom 10.