Player Watch Will Hayes

[JuniorB]

I'd also add that different teams have different philosphies around development. Some clubs have a get games into them philosophy whilst some wait until they're more ready to play them regularly.

We seem to be the latter, but I think a balance with the former would be good.
For example, this year there were times when we could have got a bit of speed in - against GC being an example.
Giving Ed Allan a run of games might have been a good idea, but now we need to wait another year to see if he will establish himself.

 

[granniewolf]

We seem to be the latter, but I think a balance with the former would be good.
For example, this year there were times when we could have got a bit of speed in - against GC being an example.
Giving Ed Allan a run of games might have been a good idea, but now we need to wait another year to see if he will establish himself.

Plus the club wanted to get 14 wins up as more important. Then 14 wins wasn't enough.
Ed Allan did get 13 games, not sure how many of those were as sub.

 

[sr36]

We seem to be the latter, but I think a balance with the former would be good.
For example, this year there were times when we could have got a bit of speed in - against GC being an example.
Giving Ed Allan a run of games might have been a good idea, but now we need to wait another year to see if he will establish himself.

Ed played 13 games this year. I don't think another 4+ would have told us much at all or had any bearing on his likelihood of future success.

 

[Gone Critical]

I think you might need to look at this more closely.

In 2021 when we sucked, we had 5 draftees debut, who all played a fair bit:

McCreery 13 games
Ginni 5
Poulter 11
Henry 10
Macrae 9

No way those kids would get anywhere near that number of games in our current team.

I agree there is a bit of a difference breaking into a top team v a bottom team but its no where near as great as you say.

If you take the 5 players listed above, 3 of them are in the top 8 kids from that year in games played.

Gulden 103
Holmes 102
Perkins 101
McCreery 96
Campbell 94
Powell 91
Ginnivan 90
Henry 85

All of our 3 played a lot more in their 2nd and 3rd season, in a PF then premier team. So I think its wrong to suggest they played more than they might have in season 1. Their career paths havefollowed that of very good AFL.players since season 1.

Poulter and Macrae are fair enough to say they may have got a few more games but I don't think its fair to suggest they wouldn't have played. What it says is the talent ID was excellent in that draft.

 

[sr36]

I agree there is a bit of a difference breaking into a top team v a bottom team but its no where near as great as you say.

If you take the 5 players listed above, 3 of them are in the top 8 kids from that year in games played.

Gulden 103
Holmes 102
Perkins 101
McCreery 96
Campbell 94
Powell 91
Ginnivan 90
Henry 85

All of our 3 played a lot more in their 2nd and 3rd season, in a PF then premier team. So I think its wrong to suggest they played more than they might have in season 1. Their career paths havefollowed that of very good AFL.players since season 1.

Poulter and Macrae are fair enough to say they may have got a few more games but I don't think its fair to suggest they wouldn't have played. What it says is the talent ID was excellent in that draft.

I think you're right in that the really good ones play early wherever they land. The rungs down though get a lot more games if they land at lower teams - particularly if that team has a get games into them development philosophy.

And where you're most right is in the 3rd and 4th year guys - if they're not regulars, role payer is an excellent outcome from there - the odd exception like Josh Daicos, but those exceptions are really rare.

 

[legendstatus]

Will Hayes, um yep.

 

[Horaceg]

Will Hayes, um yep.

Yep, think he’ll have a career, one to look forward to watching as he matures.

 

[Gone Critical]

To clarify of his peers that played more games how many were at teams that were 10 points clear atop the ladder when they played? Context is always king and two games for a team that was streeting the field is worth 5-10 games of say a debutant at Richmond, Essendon or WC in 2025. If anything 2025 was the most anomalous debutant season of the century with only 9 teams in realistic finals contention by KB so debuts were being handed out like lollies on Halloween.

Essendon breaking the record for most ever being a perfect example. On the basis of what I saw Kako wouldn’t have played more than 2-3 games at Collingwood. He wouldn’t have broken in early season and tailed off as dramatically as Hayes.

FWIW I’d have his debut season as about average.

If you look at the 19 kids with 10+ games these were the clubs

Rich 4
St K 3
Bris 2
Melb 2
Ess 2
Port 2
Adel 1
Freo 1
Dogs 1
NM 1

I agree re I would value the games at a top club more and even without that just the development side of the club is likely much better.

I like Hayes and he has done okay so far. If he wants to put himself in the group of players who become serious AFL players from his draft he would want to be playing 10+ games in the seniors in 26.

 

[domus]

I'm not convinced. I hope he makes it-he seems like a lovely kid.

 

[granniewolf]

If you look at the 19 kids with 10+ games these were the clubs

Rich 4
St K 3
Bris 2
Melb 2
Ess 2
Port 2
Adel 1
Freo 1
Dogs 1
NM 1

I agree re I would value the games at a top club more and even without that just the development side of the club is likely much better.

I like Hayes and he has done okay so far. If he wants to put himself in the group of players who become serious AFL players from his draft he would want to be playing 10+ games in the seniors in 26.

I find it interesting that the club extended his contract by 2 years but not Charlie or Joel.
There must be a reason for it and I would dearly love to know what it was, am assuming it is because they think he is going to be very good.

 

[Scodog10]

If you look at the 19 kids with 10+ games these were the clubs

Rich 4
St K 3
Bris 2
Melb 2
Ess 2
Port 2
Adel 1
Freo 1
Dogs 1
NM 1

I agree re I would value the games at a top club more and even without that just the development side of the club is likely much better.

I like Hayes and he has done okay so far. If he wants to put himself in the group of players who become serious AFL players from his draft he would want to be playing 10+ games in the seniors in 26.

I can’t readily identify a 50+ pick amongst that group and the 4 that played for finalists were all 1st rounders (two top 5’s, a club tied prospect and the RS). That’s stiff competition in a stacked draft.

I do agree though that the trajectory probably needs to be 10+ or even best 23 regular, no matter how good we are, for him to be shaping as one of the best from the that draft (same goes for West who I have greater concerns for). I think he’s capable of that, but he needs to have been pounding protein shakes and the pavement the past 6 weeks.

FWIW I get that there’s slow burn outliers like Jaicos or Cameron or Long etc. the thing is that pinning your hopes to a 10-1 shot once they’re 3 years into the system is a sure fire way to tumble down the ladder.

 

[sr36]

I find it interesting that the club extended his contract by 2 years but not Charlie or Joel.
There must be a reason for it and I would dearly love to know what it was, am assuming it is because they think he is going to be very good.

I suspect the early 4th year extensions we do are a salary cap thing. Kid gets security of 4 years. We lock them to a low wage for years 3 and 4.

Charlie as a full forward did enough to be confident of getting 4 years in the system. Would have been advised against locking himself to a low wage for years 3 and 4.

Cochran didn't do enough to warrant the 4 year commitment from the club.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I suspect the early 4th year extensions we do are a salary cap thing. Kid gets security of 4 years. We lock them to a low wage for years 3 and 4.

Charlie as a full forward did enough to be confident of getting 4 years in the system. Would have been advised against locking himself to a low wage for years 3 and 4.

Cochran didn't do enough to warrant the 4 year commitment from the club.

There’s an element of list balance in it as well. We have TJ, Cochran, Ryan, and Parker all as developing small-medium defenders. Not all of them will make it so you need to have some flexibility for churn. I think Ryan is the most vulnerable on evidence to date.

Ditto West, Buller and Howes. Especially with McCarthy a likely addition.

 

[sr36]

There’s an element of list balance in it as well. We have TJ, Cochran, Ryan, and Parker all as developing small-medium defenders. Not all of them will make it so you need to have some flexibility for churn. I think Ryan is the most vulnerable on evidence to date.

Ditto West, Buller and Howes. Especially with McCarthy a likely addition.

I think the bolded will all need to show strong development to be on the list in '27 (unless any of them already have a contract past this year).

 

[Mollythedolly]

I think the bolded will all need to show strong development to be on the list in '27 (unless any of them already have a contract past this year).

TJ the only one contracted for 2027. Im more optimistic on Cochran.

 

[pablo disco bar]

TJ the only one contracted for 2027. Im more optimistic on Cochran.

I reckon jiath is going to return in pristine condition be alot bigger and surprise a few in 2026

 

[No SPIN]

I'm not convinced. I hope he makes it-he seems like a lovely kid.

He’s got speed, excellent kick both sides , high footy IQ and X factor and you still have doubts?
What am I missing?

 

[domus]

He’s got speed, excellent kick both sides , high footy IQ and X factor and you still have doubts?
What am I missing?

Just looks like a little boy out there. I've seen 16 year olds play senior footy for Collingwood in Rene Kink and Stevie Clifford and neither looked out of place. Hayes simply couldn't hold his position in any contest. I've seen many tiny men like Ronnie Wearmouth and Tony Shaw and slender kids like Ricky Barham play at the age of 18 and still show some physicality and ability to win their own ball. Hopefully that will come but he looked way off in his two senior games that I saw.

 

[granniewolf]

Here's a great interview with Will a week before the draft last year.

 

[JuniorB]

Just looks like a little boy out there. I've seen 16 year olds play senior footy for Collingwood in Rene Kink and Stevie Clifford and neither looked out of place. Hayes simply couldn't hold his position in any contest. I've seen many tiny men like Ronnie Wearmouth and Tony Shaw and slender kids like Ricky Barham play at the age of 18 and still show some physicality and ability to win their own ball. Hopefully that will come but he looked way off in his two senior games that I saw.

That's ancient history.
The physicality of the game now means a player has to build their attributes over time.
The time of 16 year olds playing AFL level footy is over.
He has elite endurance, evasiveness and footy smarts.
I think he'll be fine.

 

[domus]

That's ancient history.
The physicality of the game now means a player has to build their attributes over time.
The time of 16 year olds playing AFL level footy is over.
He has elite endurance, evasiveness and footy smarts.
I think he'll be fine.

Good-then I have nothing to worry about. I wasn't suggesting 16 year olds could debut today. Just focusing on the size of some of those kids at a time when the game was quite scary to play and how well they managed.

 

[domus]

He’s got speed, excellent kick both sides , high footy IQ and X factor and you still have doubts?
What am I missing?

To be fair- he's hardly been a standout in the VFL. He's had some nice moments. When he's going on a few dynamic runs with three or more bounces or kicking bags I'll say he has X factor. I hardly sighted him in the run home over the last few weeks in the VFL comp.

That doesn't mean he won't make it, but I think the expectation is a little high given his output so far.

 

[SchuPie]

To be fair- he's hardly been a standout in the VFL. He's had some nice moments. When he's going on a few dynamic runs with three or more bounces or kicking bags I'll say he has X factor. I hardly sighted him in the run home over the last few weeks in the VFL comp.

That doesn't mean he won't make it, but I think the expectation is a little high given his output so far.

I really hope he makes it as his skill set would make us super dangerous however I think you’ve summed up where he (+ posters) are at, perfectly

 

[Jelly Bean]

He’s got speed, excellent kick both sides , high footy IQ and X factor and you still have doubts?
What am I missing?

I guess the recruiters from all the other clubs and our recruiters must know something you don't, because he was a very late pick, and our third pick after not starting until very late ourselves.

It's probably whether or not he can win the ball and stand up in contests (even though he won't be a contested ball player), and whether he can retain his speed / endurance combo when he puts on weight

 

[whiskeytown]

TJ the only one contracted for 2027. Im more optimistic on Cochran.

Hopefully with dean and iirc glover gone… Cochran gets a weekly KPD game instead of playing him everywhere like they did this year