Player Watch Will Hoskin-Elliott

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Most likely he’s Worth more to us on field than what we’d get for him in a trade

Never say never but I’d predict he’s a keeper unless a club actually approaches us .

 

[stormskye]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

 

[JLC]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

The main benefit of trading WHE will be for salary cap space.

If that helps retain Moore/De Goey then that’s a big win.

Ideally it would be for something better than a third rounder but. I guess that might reflect how he is perceived by other clubs.

I would be exploring the idea of using WHE as part of a package of players.

 

[stormskye]

The main benefit of trading WHE will be for salary cap space.

If that helps retain Moore/De Goey then that’s a big win.

Ideally it would be for something better than a third rounder but. I guess that might reflect how he is perceived by other clubs.

I would be exploring the idea of using WHE as part of a package of players.

We should not have to trade WHE for cap space. As mentioned in this thread look at the two top teams and their lists, they are miles better with loads mor talent. If we can’t manage to hold a few of our best, then we are going nowhere. That said you are prob right and WHE would be on far to much based on our list management history

 

[JLC]

We should not have to trade WHE for cap space. As mentioned in this thread look at the two top teams and their lists, they are miles better with loads mor talent. If we can’t manage to hold a few of our best, then we are going nowhere. That said you are prob right and WHE would be on far to much based on our list management history

I think that might be the issue - current player contracts that were signed during the tenure of Nedguy might be inflated.

Or maybe GW by saying we will appreciate Ned Guy etc etc meant in a round about way that Guy was fixing the stuff ups of Hine?

 

[BEEG]

Would be a great get for a good team.

 

[TradeDraft]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

and why would you Trade such a Skilfull Player?

 

[Kappa]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

If he was on 500k it would be.

 

[cityslick1]

need all the points, bargaining power and cap space that we can get. expendable & past his best

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I think that might be the issue - current player contracts that were signed during the tenure of Nedguy might be inflated.

Or maybe GW by saying we will appreciate Ned Guy etc etc meant in a round about way that Guy was fixing the stuff ups of Hine?

I find it hard to believe we have significant cap problems. Clearly there’s no room ( or trade bait) to land a big fish but the exits in 2020 plus this years exits of greenwood Mayne and possibly Cox Thomas and Sier will provide some room to recruit some mid tier salaried players. Hopefully we managed to front load the Treloar subsidy too and it’s cheaper next year although given Ned negotiated that (incompetently) I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Unless WHE wants out ( unlikely) or another club shows massive interest, we should keep him. His skills and talent are something we lack. And he had a pretty good year, easily his best since 2018

 

[DCasey91]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

A pick back and moving an overpaid contract is Sports and frankly financial 101.

 

[Copeland]

A pick back and moving an overpaid contract is Sports and frankly financial 101.

What is the offer he would except though. Just come off one of his better years, would prefer to keep if he doesnt cost too much.

 

[DCasey91]

What is the offer he would except though. Just come off one of his better years, would prefer to keep if he doesnt cost too much.

Cost is already too high, I mean the pick rerouted to Stephens works out pretty well for us. Another young mid talent to add which is what we need.

 

[Seedsfan]

and why would you Trade such a Skilfull Player?

Because he offers two fifths of * all

 

[rand corp]

Frustrating player, obviously sublime skills, pace, can play lovely football and moves like a gazelle. However, aside from almost kicking the goal of the round each week and almost taking the mark of the year that he never quite nails, he often does * all else. He can go awful quiet for weeks on end. All that said, he did have a real purple patch mid-season and played some really good games up on a wing. If we could get more of those out of him and if he could get a bit more involved on his quieter days then he might be a keeper. However, he's had plenty of chances and we have plenty of good kids coming through, with more to follow. The question for me is this, do I see him as part of our next push for a flag, which will inevitably be in a few year's time at best? The answer there is a resounding no.

 

[Countrypie]

Frustrating player, obviously sublime skills, pace, can play lovely football and moves like a gazelle. However, aside from almost kicking the goal of the round each week and almost taking the mark of the year that he never quite nails, he often does **** all else. He can go awful quiet for weeks on end. All that said, he did have a real purple patch mid-season and played some really good games up on a wing. If we could get more of those out of him and if he could get a bit more involved on his quieter days then he might be a keeper. However, he's had plenty of chances and we have plenty of good kids coming through, with more to follow. The question for me is this, do I see him as part of our next push for a flag, which will inevitably be in a few year's time at best? The answer there is a resounding no.

I suppose there's always a balance between experience and youth. If we cut too deep, we're done for. Maybe that's why he'd be kept

 

[DCasey91]

Pareto principle.

WHE is more than likely gone this year.

 

[Kappa]

I suppose there's always a balance between experience and youth. If we cut too deep, we're done for. Maybe that's why he'd be kept

We have tonnes of experience - Pendlebury Grundy Sidebottom Roughead Moore Howe Adams Thomas Elliot De Goey Crisp Maynard… I reckon that’s probably enough… that’s not even counting 5th year players like Cox Brown Sier ect

 

[Countrypie]

We have tonnes of experience - Pendlebury Grundy Sidebottom Roughead Moore Howe Adams Thomas Elliot De Goey Crisp Maynard… I reckon that’s probably enough… that’s not even counting 5th year players like Cox Brown Sier ect

You're probably right - if all those guys remain. Some of them won't stay. How many is the question

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Pareto principle.

WHE is more than likely gone this year.

Because the Pareto principle exists, or because you have good reason to think Wright adheres to it?

 

[JLC]

We have tonnes of experience - Pendlebury Grundy Sidebottom Roughead Moore Howe Adams Thomas Elliot De Goey Crisp Maynard… I reckon that’s probably enough… that’s not even counting 5th year players like Cox Brown Sier ect

Sier is finally gone. Few more list cloggers to go.

 

[wicksy]

you trade to obtain a Benefit. Trading WHE for a third round pick, is not a benefit

Debateable

 

[adammania9]

need all the points, bargaining power and cap space that we can get. expendable & past his best

He's past his best, and so are we. He's wasting his time playing for a 17th placed team, and it might cost him his career. In 12 months he'll be 29 and without a deal - will he have any interest at that stage, even from us? Should be on the phone to any side who'll offer him 3 years, or at least 2 with triggers.

Would be a handy pickup for Melbourne, Geelong and Essendon who are all Victorian and in a flag window

 

[DCasey91]

Because the Pareto principle exists, or because you have good reason to think Wright adheres to it?

No I think WHE is one contract that is moveable with some type of return

With the preferences of resigning better players on our list it’s a need to keep cap flexibility.

He’s not our best 6 so everyone should fall under that proviso.

But alas logic and emotion don’t go hand in hand lol.

 

[DCasey91]

Can’t post this in the FA/Trade thread (Banned temporarily) but there is a Formula/Template to work under.

“Theory of how to work within a hard capped sport.”

(Rough numbers)
Overall Cap: 13.5 M

- Top 31 players on a list play on average 98% of total games (450++).

- The next let’s say 14 (45 total number on a list) play only 2% total (rounded to 15 games played to make it easy).

- 14 players total cap expenditure (2mil).

Equal terms all clubs start with a 2mill investment for a 15 (2%) game player that’s arguably the worst player on production in the league.

Fair is fair all clubs have that. Equal playing field from here on out.

- Total cap left 11.5 Mil
- Number of players (31)

This is the meat and potatoes of any list. Most of the money should go to your top 6 players. But it can’t be 80/20 because the cap becomes too comprised in the end.

So essentially work a number % and divy up a rank of pay vs production vs age vs progression/regression across the league. The data is so large it’s pretty simple to accomplish.

Thousands of AFL players stats are in a system. Once a formula is created (not hard simple stuff) then based on pay in relation to an individual player there should be a lot of greens (green means good positive value) and not a lot of reds (negative value) on a given list.

- Easy example would be a rookie scale player that performs extremely well (Selwood/Sidebuts) whose not just in the green on value but are the most valuable contracts not close.

- A poor one would be a an older “star” that gets paid but doesn’t live anywhere near up to his contract price would suggest. I.e overpaid

Now rookie contracts are non negotiable but every other contract is.

This is where the “Moneyball” Strategy comes into play. It only works if you have the star potential on your list in the beginning. If we believe that is to be the case then proceed.

- Surround your “Star 6” with value not with individual attachment because the cap is already comprised in the beginning (Very poor investment 2mil gone with 14 players doing literally zero or non impact in the end).

1. So all up make a data set with all contracts in the league and with rank (Highest player to the lowest paid player in the league).

2. Next is make a large distribution map of player production, progression/regression, contract size, future contract size etc, durability/injury, with all players and with past players to have a direct gauge. Overlook outliers (I.E Boak had his best season when he was strictly out of prime years). Then it creates a league stack for comparisons, player vs player. Never about the individual it’s what about what he has been paid to produce.

This is to get as close to TRUE VALUE as possible.

3. You should be able to develop a nice distribution map initially, then a bar graph of a very nice market to pour over. Also the full list of Greens and Reds across every player in the League.

4. There is a nice flip side to that coin.
The draft position vs value should already be done (So much data on picks picked and outcomes), and “overpriced contracts”. Means to say using a log you can make overpriced contracts traded to your team work in our favor provided you get adequate asset attachment . It happens all the time to money off the books (Treloars case, but look even lower and less riskier than that).

5. Mature age small forwards are the most undervalued non rookie paid players in the league. You could invest $450,000 across 3x players and get a 35+ goal return based on player per average stats (0.7 goal per game or higher is the gold standard along with other key metrics). Phenomenal return. This is what Moneyball really is. Also key/flanker mature aged backs are in the exact same group.

Look at the Dogs list. Whoever is operating it now along with the P.A one years before that knows this angle to a tee and has the book down Pat. I bet you the list has 10+ league average players on production at 1/3 the league average cost. Hence why they got a $600,000 investment surplus with zero worries on the cap. They have the formula good and proper.

Create the engine and system before you invest not after or during.

This overall is a basic foundational and fundamental exercise in making rational/logical and right decisions.

I’ll say this for the last time it’s a “Hard” capped sport. Direct even playing field when other elite sports are certainly not.

I truly believe you can make a finals winning list over a long period of time and rebound faster than 90% of teams if your philosophy on this is very very sound.