Preview Will St Kilda go winless for 21 straight rounds in 2018?

[Tulip]

No. They're building a bit of form now and should win a handful more once they meet teams that are mathematically out of the eight.

 

[Milanista28]

They can win a few including against us, We aren't certainties in any game.

I'd actually pick them if we played next week.

 

[Caj]

Poor old Saints got their only win Round 1 of this year against Brisbane. Since then theyve had a draw against GWS in round 5 as their only other points. Looking ahead, they have 2 winnable games left for the season.

Round 13 vs Gold Coast at Metricon stadium
Round 17 vs Carlton at Etihad.

The rest of their fixture they will start pretty big underdogs. If they fail to get a win in the above 2 games, they will have gone 21 rounds without a win, which surely must be some sort of record. Cant see their coach lasting out the season.

What are the odds they dont win another game for the rest of the year?

Thanks Yippee, you had to post this the week we play them

 

[Ron The Bear]

They've gone very young in their past two games and shown improved form. I see them as similar to the Bulldogs - development year from this point. They'll win a couple.

 

[tugga]

They will win a few games in the second half of the season.
I thought they were very good against Richmond and then they pushed West Coast in Perth.
Reasonable form against the two best sides.
They'll win another four games or so.

 

[TheEnsign]

Interesting thread timing given we have, imo looked a lot better the last couple of weeks, and while scoring is an issue, we've managed to kick straight for two weeks in a row for the first time this year.

I'd be surprised if we don't win two out of Carlton, WB, Ess & GC. Hawthorn at Etihad later this year is another match that I think we'll go into only slight underdogs.

 

[Plugger35]

If we cop the sort of umpiring we copped on Saturday night we will struggle to get another win but thankfully that only happens against West Coast in Perth.

 

[TheFourPillars]

If we cop the sort of umpiring we copped on Saturday night we will struggle to get another win but thankfully that only happens against West Coast in Perth.

Umpiring... its the reason for all losses in the AFL

 

[projectv]

Nah we'll win a few more.

Stitching up a top 2 draft pick will be nice.

It's been great watching our youth come through, which teams only usually get to do when their season is shot.

 

[Plugger35]

Umpiring... its the reason for all losses in the AFL

Did you watch the game? They got over twice as many free kicks as us, a few of which gifted West Coast goals and if you've been following AFL for the past 20 odd years you will know that is common practice with the umpiring of West Coast games in Perth. It's one of the reasons they are so hard to beat there.

 

[Donakebab]

If Billings can follow in Membrey's footsteps and kick straight, along with Bruce returning from injury shortly, then their fortunes will start to turn around quite quickly. The first half of their fixture has been just about the hardest in the league, it opens up in the back half and they should jag 3-4 more wins.

 

[Freomaniac]

Did you watch the game? They got over twice as many free kicks as us, a few of which gifted West Coast goals and if you've been following AFL for the past 20 odd years you will know that is common practice with the umpiring of West Coast games in Perth. It's one of the reasons they are so hard to beat there.

West coast were Garbage in 2010 as they won the wooden spoon. The umpires couldn't help them much.

You need to Admit that your team is crap and worse than freo.

 

[burningdwarf]

You need to Admit that your team is crap and worse than freo.

Imagine having this to hang your hat on.

 

[Plugger35]

West coast were Garbage in 2010 as they won the wooden spoon. The umpires couldn't help them much.

You need to Admit that your team is crap and worse than freo.

From what I saw on the weekend we're playing better football than Freo at the moment, if Membrey had kicked straight against Freo like he did against West Coast we would've beaten you.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

I don't think there is really a standout worst team this year- the bottom 4 have all played patches of ok football but struggled to put it together for four quarters.

I think St Kilda will win 4-5 games this year. They've been not disgraced against a lot of okay teams- if they produce that sort of effort against their fellow cellar dwellers they'll win easily.

That said they are mentally the weakest team in the league at the moment - play good football when they're out of games, go to water when they have a chance to win.

 

[Freomaniac]

From what I saw on the weekend we're playing better football than Freo at the moment, if Membrey had kicked straight against Freo like he did against West Coast we would've beaten you.

You are only focusing on what happened on the weekend, what about the whole season?

Your team is on 1 and a half wins, freo have 4. As far as the Freo vs saints game 2 weeks back. Freo won 13.11.89 to 8.11.59. One good 5 goal quarter in the 3rd doesn't make it a certain win.

Had freo got a decent forward structure, we would of belted your mob the same way we belted the dogs

 

[Freomaniac]

Imagine having this to hang your hat on.

you guys were expected to make finals after getting 12 wins in 2017 and 12 in 2016...... So what is with the drop off?

 

[Plugger35]

You are only focusing on what happened on the weekend, what about the whole season?

Your team is on 1 and a half wins, freo have 4. As far as the Freo vs saints game 2 weeks back. Freo won 13.11.89 to 8.11.59. One good 5 goal quarter in the 3rd doesn't make it a certain win.

Had freo got a decent forward structure, we would of belted your mob the same way we belted the dogs

Freo hasn't had a decent forward structure since Pavlich retired and we were missing several players from our best 22 that night as well and also lost Carlisle during the 2nd quarter after Fyfe kneed him in the head.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Umpiring... its the reason for all losses in the AFL

Yeah not the fact they were down by 8 goals after West Coast had a 5 day turn around and travel every week? Good lord we had more free kicks we were disciplined, they have a problem with the umping go see Gill and have a coffee

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

Why oh why must the OP be an eagle.

Thread has merit, but expect them to pick up at least a win or two, just off the boil with some list work yet.

Why oh why do you care?

I noticed the saints had played Richmond, West Coast back to back and had Sydney this week. Wondered when they were going to have an easier run and looked at their fixture.

 

[Ian Dunross]

you guys were expected to make finals after getting 12 wins in 2017 and 12 in 2016...... So what is with the drop off?

Damn good question.

Wish i had an answer.

 

[mr bagcroft]

Hope not, anymore wins will do us no good.
Must get rid of Richo!!

 

[fnerd]

You d like to hope so

 

[ferrisb]

I crunched some numbers on the last 20 years for teams on 1.5 wins or less at round 11

• Highlights
  • 75% of years (15/20) had a team on 6 points or less at round 11
  • Total of 22 teams over 20 years (ie some years had more than 1)
  • NOT ONCE did a team go winless in the back half of the season (H2)
  • Only 4 times did a team win only 1 match in back half of season
    • GWS first two seasons (don't really count IMO), Melb in 2013 (prob worst team I have ever seen) and Saints in 2000 (chasing priority pick?)
  • The 22 teams averaged 2.6 wins in back half of season
  • Team might have won even more matches in some years if not for priority pick disincentives
  • In last 20 years, teams won one more match 18% of the time, 2 more wins 27%, 3 more wins 32% and 4+ wins 23%
    • Based on the sample, teams in St Kilda's position are more likely to win 4+ more matches than 1 or less......

I think it goes to show no matter how bad a team are (and there have been much worse teams than the 2018 Saints), all hope is not lost. Each week, it's a two-horse race. All you need is for everything to click once, another team to take you lightly, injuries to the other team etc. It's extremely likely you'll see your team win another match, and highly likely (>80%) you'll win more than 1.

Full list below

 

[citizen-erased]

shouldn't but will probably beat essendon.
Should beat Carlton and compete against the Hawks and Dogs.