Will the NFL gain globally from missing the COVID-19 pandemic?

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mianfei

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It has recently occurred to me that the NFL might gain status in global sports through escaping the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic struck at the beginning of the league’s off-season – the perfect time for the NFL to gain fans from rival sports. Even if the pandemic lasts into the 2020 NFL season, the NFL could play behind closed doors more easily than most other leagues because of its unrivalled television contracts.

I am well aware that the NFL has long failed to expand outside the United States, but if major foreign sports cannot return by the time the 2020 NFL season begins, is it plausible that the NFL would gain many new non-American fans who have been starved for sports in the spring and summer?
 

mianfei

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The NFL is being affected too, a d we will see the season suspended eventually
So you are saying the pandemic is not going to have reached its peak by September? If that proves correct, what will historians of the future say about government policy in the United States (not necessarily Federal Government policy)?? It has not taken China six months to contain the outbreak – most new cases in East Asia today are of stranded citizens who were on winter vacation when COVID-19 first hit.
 

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So you are saying the pandemic is not going to have reached its peak by September? If that proves correct, what will historians of the future say about government policy in the United States (not necessarily Federal Government policy)?? It has not taken China six months to contain the outbreak – most new cases in East Asia today are of stranded citizens who were on winter vacation when COVID-19 first hit.

You're new to GGs negativity on absolutely everything I take it?

The dude lives to frown. :(
 
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So you are saying the pandemic is not going to have reached its peak by September? If that proves correct, what will historians of the future say about government policy in the United States (not necessarily Federal Government policy)?? It has not taken China six months to contain the outbreak – most new cases in East Asia today are of stranded citizens who were on winter vacation when COVID-19 first hit.
The West is allowing itself to crash and burn, and the carnage hasnt even begun.
 
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It has recently occurred to me that the NFL might gain status in global sports through escaping the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic struck at the beginning of the league’s off-season – the perfect time for the NFL to gain fans from rival sports. Even if the pandemic lasts into the 2020 NFL season, the NFL could play behind closed doors more easily than most other leagues because of its unrivalled television contracts.

I am well aware that the NFL has long failed to expand outside the United States, but if major foreign sports cannot return by the time the 2020 NFL season begins, is it plausible that the NFL would gain many new non-American fans who have been starved for sports in the spring and summer?

agree with your general point, but is this true? Financially yes but the atmosphere would be significantly affected.
 

AJ_2000

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Even if the pandemic lasts into the 2020 NFL season, the NFL could play behind closed doors more easily than most other leagues because of its unrivalled television contracts.

I've changed my view on the ability for competitions to be sustainable on big TV deals alone. Every been to an NFL game? It's like buying a ticket to the Grand Final. The NFL are just as dependant on match day revenue as the other streams.

I felt the AFL should have been able to sustain a 6 month hit of no games with the TV money plus the future fund, and smirked when the NRL were asking for govt stimulus funding. Yet a few days later here we are with massive standowns, big pay cuts and a serious threat to the future viability of the comp.

Big Revenues = Big Spending, and like most are saving for a rainy day - not a pandemic.

Where the NFL does have an advantage is 6 months to rework their financial approach to 2020 - with a workforce that has witnessed a global sport shutdown. So they may be more viable then others.
 

mianfei

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Where the NFL does have an advantage is 6 months to rework their financial approach to 2020 – with a workforce that has witnessed a global sport shutdown. So they may be more viable then others.
Dr. Zeke Emmanuel at Real Clear Politics says that the 2020 NFL season, all 2020/2021 seasons and the 2021 MLB season, will be played entirely without crowds, assuming they do get played. Dr. Emmanuel says, according to ice hockey defenceman Drew Doughty, that it will be October 2021 at the earliest before crowds return to games.

Given the certainty of no crowds for the 2020 NFL season and probability of no crowds for the 2021 season – assuming Dr. Emmanuel is not completely wrong – might the league be able to adapt to two seasons without crowds by such a reworking and eliminate dependence on match-day revenue streams?
 

mianfei

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What a disaster that will be for teams with new stadiums (la and lv)
It seems clear to me that all stadiums will be rendered out of date by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even if some other countries are able to return to having fans in stadiums earlier than the US can – although the improbability of a COVID-19 vaccine makes that tough to imagine – there would likely be severe restrictions imposed on how close biologically unrelated spectators can sit. Redesigning stadiums to sit even half their present capacities would cost a lot of money, and who knows what the public response will be if governments do pay for new post-COVID-19 stadiums after the virtual certainty of two seasons (2020, 2021) without crowds and the possibility of many more subsequently (assuming crowds do return at some point which is frankly unlikely).
 

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It may be better than nothing but sports without fans is..is...practice. It’s practice man
Yeah, the crowd is often a factor. Home crowd demoralizing an opponent that they cant get back in it. Or instigating hope in a comeback after a breakthru score, etc. Players pumped up by the crowds appreciation etc
 

mianfei

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It may be better than nothing but sports without fans is..is...practice. It’s practice man
This is an attitude that may die hard, but die it will be obliged to.

If Dr. Emmanuel is at all correct, all (North American) leagues that do play will have to play without fans until at least the 2021/2022 NBA and NHL seasons, and more than likely much longer than that.

I have though to myself recently: what if leagues are obliged to play without fans for several years longer than Emmanuel’s minimum estimate of 2021/2022, and experience allows a better job than recent experiments in the AFL, NRL and Turkish Süper Lig? Assuming that leagues never say bluntly that fans will never return, would alternations to play during several seasons without fans be sufficient to deter former spectators from returning in the – frankly improbable – outcome that leagues do permit spectators again? Would it simply be too expensive with greater space requirements for even middle-class people to attend? Would, say, four seasons without fans make the public accept fully that sport without fans is now genuine sport rather than practice?
 
This is an attitude that may die hard, but die it will be obliged to.

If Dr. Emmanuel is at all correct, all (North American) leagues that do play will have to play without fans until at least the 2021/2022 NBA and NHL seasons, and more than likely much longer than that.

I have though to myself recently: what if leagues are obliged to play without fans for several years longer than Emmanuel’s minimum estimate of 2021/2022, and experience allows a better job than recent experiments in the AFL, NRL and Turkish Süper Lig? Assuming that leagues never say bluntly that fans will never return, would alternations to play during several seasons without fans be sufficient to deter former spectators from returning in the – frankly improbable – outcome that leagues do permit spectators again? Would it simply be too expensive with greater space requirements for even middle-class people to attend? Would, say, four seasons without fans make the public accept fully that sport without fans is now genuine sport rather than practice?
4 seasons? Most leagues and teams would go out of business
 

mianfei

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4 seasons? Most leagues and teams would go out of business
Given that most leagues gain far more money from TV revenues than from gates, they ought to be able to expand TV audiences enough to permanently operate under a rigid rule of behind-closed-doors play.
 
Given that most leagues gain far more money from TV revenues than from gates, they ought to be able to expand TV audiences enough to permanently operate under a rigid rule of behind-closed-doors play.
NFL wise you may be right, however NCAAF does gets more than 50% of it’s revenue from gate takings. The professional game may be able to cover this current problem but the college game may not.
 

AJ_2000

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No match day revenue for a prolonged period (years) will sink every professional comp.

Most of the CBAs are tied to revenue for player payments, which means they'll share the pain.

College does has the advantage of not paying those pesky players, the support staff on huge deals will face the pointy end of no fans.

If we don't get on top of the pandemic in the next 6-12 months sports won't be the same (as will many other important things too).
 
It may be better than nothing but sports without fans is..is...practice. It’s practice man

Allen Iverson doesn't turn up to practice. He'll ALWAYS turn up for games, empty stadium or not tho.
 
No match day revenue for a prolonged period (years) will sink every professional comp.

Most of the CBAs are tied to revenue for player payments, which means they'll share the pain.

College does has the advantage of not paying those pesky players, the support staff on huge deals will face the pointy end of no fans.

If we don't get on top of the pandemic in the next 6-12 months sports won't be the same (as will many other important things too).

TV deals should be able to be renegotiated at higher price given the amount of people who will be watching via TV win no crowds able to attend in the short term. At least for the next year or so.
 

AJ_2000

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TV deals should be able to be renegotiated at higher price given the amount of people who will be watching via TV win no crowds able to attend in the short term. At least for the next year or so.

Negative. Networks have less money in collapsing economies - their pipeline is advertisers (less of those) or subscribers (I've canceled my Kayo with nothing on, or people under financial strain need to tighten the belt)

Nine feels that without crowds the content isn't as valuable, and would prefer no NRL at all in 2020 to bank the $120m.

AFL are looking to renegotiate their media deals to add more years and likely spread the revenue.

The A League and Rugby Union are going to go to the wall with Fox Sports looking to cut and run.

As a broadcaster, if you had a favourable deal you're unlikely to pay more than contracted. And if you can't pay the contracted amount its then a negotiation.

The only example I could see is where you have content that wasn't already being sold - like the Saturday 3pm games in to England for the Premier League. They could use that to bring in or maintain $$$$
 
Negative. Networks have less money in collapsing economies - their pipeline is advertisers (less of those) or subscribers (I've canceled my Kayo with nothing on, or people under financial strain need to tighten the belt)

Nine feels that without crowds the content isn't as valuable, and would prefer no NRL at all in 2020 to bank the $120m.

AFL are looking to renegotiate their media deals to add more years and likely spread the revenue.

The A League and Rugby Union are going to go to the wall with Fox Sports looking to cut and run.

As a broadcaster, if you had a favourable deal you're unlikely to pay more than contracted. And if you can't pay the contracted amount its then a negotiation.

The only example I could see is where you have content that wasn't already being sold - like the Saturday 3pm games in to England for the Premier League. They could use that to bring in or maintain $$$$

Pretty ****ed then. :(
 
Allen Iverson doesn't turn up to practice. He'll ALWAYS turn up for games, empty stadium or not tho.
Well LeBron always turns up for games as well and he has said “f***** if I’m going to play without crowds”.
 
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