Will we ever see 2 more clubs?

Professor Knowall

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AFL all about money. Never forget that. That's why Tassie was overlooked for gws & GC. Selling pitch to TV was larger audience share in the bigger markets. Of course this never happened & now other clubs must be questioning the logic of funding two failing entities.
To repeat - the AFL charter requires that its primary purpose to grow the game and Goyder has specifically stated this on more than one occasion.

The need for new expansion clubs in NSW and Qld was specifically outlined in the Carter Report, adopted by the AFL several years some years prior to when the new clubs were announced. And as the Carter report stated, the new clubs were crucial in the main objective of greatly increasing participation in our game - and this has most definitely happened and is also now resulting in NSW and Queensland players being increasingly represented at AFL level -now over 100.

And I haven't seen a scrap of evidence of any club questioning the logic of funding these clubs. I think all are well aware of the logic. GWS in particular is on the road to long term success (having been to half a dozen or so of their home games) and the Gold Coast will eventually get it right on-field. Despite their lack of on-field success to date, their crowds have mostly been OK (eg 16,000 last week). They too won't fail, no matter how much you want that to happen.

And I'm certain Tassie will also get its own team sometime next decade.
 

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Pippen94

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To repeat - the AFL charter requires that its primary purpose to grow the game and Goyder has specifically stated this on more than one occasion.

The need for new expansion clubs in NSW and Qld was specifically outlined in the Carter Report, adopted by the AFL several years some years prior to when the new clubs were announced. And as the Carter report stated, the new clubs were crucial in the main objective of greatly increasing participation in our game - and this has most definitely happened and is also now resulting in NSW and Queensland players being increasingly represented at AFL level -now over 100.

And I haven't seen a scrap of evidence of any club questioning the logic of funding these clubs. I think all are well aware of the logic. GWS in particular is on the road to long term success (having been to half a dozen or so of their home games) and the Gold Coast will eventually get it right on-field. Despite their lack of on-field success to date, their crowds have mostly been OK (eg 16,000 last week). They too won't fail, no matter how much you want that to happen.

And I'm certain Tassie will also get its own team sometime next decade.
There's no proof the two new teams have created AFL players from NSW & Queensland. In fact it's doubtful given how long they've been in existence. Most NSW players come from the riverina which has always produced players. Very few players from western Sydney. AFL has always been present in Queensland. How is a team on the Gold Coast, which is poorly supported both live & on TV, producing players in say Cairns? It's not.
AFL exists to make money. Growing the game can make money, but if you're losing more money than you can potentially make you stop. We are close to reaching this point.
 

abcde12345

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Last media rights deal was in the background of a boom for such things. NRL deal jumped as well without adding teams. Is the 9th game worth 30 million a year? I highly doubt that.
Sure, that's why I said that a significant portion of the money would have come from the inflating sports media deal landscape over the period. But as I also said, you're kidding yourself if you think increasing the amount of games in the season by 12.5% wouldn't be bringing in a reasonable amount of that.

Suns such a poorly supported club as is gws for that matter. Any numbers they produce I wouldn't accept at face value. Both teams are the worst drawing away. Draft concessions have prevented established sides from achieving success.
My initial point is correct; removing burden of expansion teams would allow established sides to flourish on & off field.
The Gold Coast is not a huge place yet. Their crowds are legitimately not that bad, and not nearly as bad as everyone seems to make out. They get almost identical crowds to the Titans despite it being a more established Rugby League market. When you add the fact that they have been nothing short of deplorable on the field their entire existence, it actually suggests there are promising signs for them when they eventually get it right on the field.

Then you consider the fact that it is one of the fastest growing urban areas in the country, and the case for the team is obvious, and suggestions they should fold are nothing less than short-sighted.

GWS is growing the game in an extremely foreign area.

You can believe whatever numbers you want, but that is nothing more than your own personal speculation. I will believe the KPMG audited revenue figures lodged to ASIC. When you compare these to corresponding NRL figures, it suggests that crowd figures are definitely reasonable (Giants make similar gate revenue to NRL clubs with similar attendance figures, while the Gold Coast makes significantly more). Unless you think the NRL are forging their Sydney based crowd figures as well, then I don't see how you can reasonably make this suggestion, unless you think the supporters of these clubs pay significantly more per seat than NRL supporters.

Judging the success of these clubs after less than 10 years is just ludicrous. I don't know why people continue to do it. They are generational projects, this hasn't changed. If the clubs are getting 20k to games at the 30 years mark, that is a massive success - especially for GWS. All they need to be doing right now is growing the presence of the game, particularly at a grassroots level.

I also don't get your last comment. Most clubs are flourishing off-field. The average crowd across the league is less than 1k short of record highs, despite the impacts of low drawing GWS, GC and Tasmania games. 2/3 of the clubs have average crowds over 30k. The Swans having a really disappointing season are averaging over 30k to games. The Lions are starting to regain some lost ground now that the on-field results are starting to come. That looks pretty successful from my eyes, especially when you consider the nearest competitor doesn't have a single team that has managed an average attendance over 30k.

I would argue that we are currently at the best point to support clubs with the purpose of growing the game. The competition as a whole is in an extremely stable spot. It's the perfect opportunity for the league to support these long term projects.
 

Pippen94

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Sure, that's why I said that a significant portion of the money would have come from the inflating sports media deal landscape over the period. But as I also said, you're kidding yourself if you think increasing the amount of games in the season by 12.5% wouldn't be bringing in a reasonable amount of that.


The Gold Coast is not a huge place yet. Their crowds are legitimately not that bad, and not nearly as bad as everyone seems to make out. They get almost identical crowds to the Titans despite it being a more established Rugby League market. When you add the fact that they have been nothing short of deplorable on the field their entire existence, it actually suggests there are promising signs for them when they eventually get it right on the field.

Then you consider the fact that it is one of the fastest growing urban areas in the country, and the case for the team is obvious, and suggestions they should fold are nothing less than short-sighted.

GWS is growing the game in an extremely foreign area.

You can believe whatever numbers you want, but that is nothing more than your own personal speculation. I will believe the KPMG audited revenue figures lodged to ASIC. When you compare these to corresponding NRL figures, it suggests that crowd figures are definitely reasonable (Giants make similar gate revenue to NRL clubs with similar attendance figures, while the Gold Coast makes significantly more). Unless you think the NRL are forging their Sydney based crowd figures as well, then I don't see how you can reasonably make this suggestion, unless you think the supporters of these clubs pay significantly more per seat than NRL supporters.

Judging the success of these clubs after less than 10 years is just ludicrous. I don't know why people continue to do it. They are generational projects, this hasn't changed. If the clubs are getting 20k to games at the 30 years mark, that is a massive success - especially for GWS. All they need to be doing right now is growing the presence of the game, particularly at a grassroots level.

I also don't get your last comment. Most clubs are flourishing off-field. The average crowd across the league is less than 1k short of record highs, despite the impacts of low drawing GWS, GC and Tasmania games. 2/3 of the clubs have average crowds over 30k. The Swans having a really disappointing season are averaging over 30k to games. The Lions are starting to regain some lost ground now that the on-field results are starting to come. That looks pretty successful from my eyes, especially when you consider the nearest competitor doesn't have a single team that has managed an average attendance over 30k.

I would argue that we are currently at the best point to support clubs with the purpose of growing the game. The competition as a whole is in an extremely stable spot. It's the perfect opportunity for the league to support these long term projects.
7000 reported for game at GC last night. That's very poor after all these years.
Numbers are fishy - GWS heavily paper it's crowd. Children are admitted for free. Last week members of the media noted the crowd at spotless was nowhere near official number.
AFL clubs resent expansion - see comments from Eddie & Jeff. Expansion teams receive top draft picks & gain more funding from AFL. Plenty people like to see them gone.
 

abcde12345

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7000 reported for game at GC last night. That's very poor after all these years.
It was 8700.

Numbers are fishy - GWS heavily paper it's crowd. Children are admitted for free. Last week members of the media noted the crowd at spotless was nowhere near official number.
Again believe what you want. But it's nothing more than speculation. I will believe the KPMG audited ASIC lodged revenue figures. These are largely in line with similarly attended NRL clubs for GWS, and GC is much ahead of those clubs figures.

You also act like giving away free tickets in an expansion market is a bad thing. I don't understand that at all. The whole point should be trying to make it as accessible as possible for those interested, so they can see what it's all about. Similarly, I would like to see GC expand its GA section (Lions too), since the GA section always sells out and the price jumps significantly once you get into reserved seating sections.

AFL clubs resent expansion - see comments from Eddie & Jeff. Expansion teams receive top draft picks & gain more funding from AFL. Plenty people like to see them gone.
AFL clubs are self-interested. Who woulda thunk it.
 

The_Wookie

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AFL all about money. Never forget that. That's why Tassie was overlooked for gws & GC. Selling pitch to TV was larger audience share in the bigger markets. Of course this never happened & now other clubs must be questioning the logic of funding two failing entities.
While the AFL is largely about money - its why the AFL was formed after all - the selling pitch to the clubs wasnt just about tv audience, it was as much about general growth of the game in terms of participation and future growth. Theres a reason they said this was a decades long project from the beginning - just as the Swans were.
 

The_Wookie

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AFL clubs resent expansion - see comments from Eddie & Jeff. Expansion teams receive top draft picks & gain more funding from AFL. Plenty people like to see them gone.
Half the clubs in the VFL voted against expansion in 1986 too - notably Hawthorn - the league had to bribe Fitzroy to get it over the line. The whole reason the Commission exists as it does is because the clubs damn near ran the game into the ground in the 80s.
 

telsor

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Half the clubs in the VFL voted against expansion in 1986 too - notably Hawthorn - the league had to bribe Fitzroy to get it over the line. The whole reason the Commission exists as it does is because the clubs damn near ran the game into the ground in the 80s.
True, but the big difference now is that the AFL effectively owns the votes of a number of clubs.

Where the clubs really screwed up was not inserting a rule that AFL owned/controlled clubs don't get a vote on commission matters.
 

kranger

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Whether there will be new future clubs, no doubt lots of people have ideas for where they could be located:

  • Tasmania
  • Canberra
  • Perth 3
  • Sydney 3
  • Northern Territory
  • New Zealand
  • Etc
However, for a moment forget about everyones thoughts on Australia’s current population distribution, or future growth area’s, or idealistic recognition of historic footy territory for where a team could be located. Besides from Tasmania, is anyone actually asking for a team and building a case for their team?
 

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Professor Knowall

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That doesn't seem to stop Tas...
Big difference between Tas and NT though - going by ABS stats, Tasmania has a population of 532,000 and growing by 1.2% p.a. NT has only 245,000 and the population is declining by 0.4%.

Tasmania and it's economy might be just big enough to support a team. The NT population is far too small and declining.
 

FootyJunkie

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Whether there will be new future clubs, no doubt lots of people have ideas for where they could be located:

  • Tasmania
  • Canberra
  • Perth 3
  • Sydney 3
  • Northern Territory
  • New Zealand
  • Etc
However, for a moment forget about everyones thoughts on Australia’s current population distribution, or future growth area’s, or idealistic recognition of historic footy territory for where a team could be located. Besides from Tasmania, is anyone actually asking for a team and building a case for their team?
I feel the Joondalup club will form more due to an attractive circumstance rather than a clear demand for a side representing the northern burbs of Perth... Tasmania comes in and the league will want to move to 20 shortly after with a third Perth team being the only other viable option for the AFL to "expand" into in the next 10 years.
 

telsor

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Big difference between Tas and NT though - going by ABS stats, Tasmania has a population of 532,000 and growing by 1.2% p.a. NT has only 245,000 and the population is declining by 0.4%.

Tasmania and it's economy might be just big enough to support a team. The NT population is far too small and declining.
Longer term trends and predictions are very different though. (10 year pop, Tas has grown 5.9%, NT 12.5%, 10 year economy, Tas 15%, NT 40%)

Yeah, they might be 'just' big enough now, but will they still be in 10/20/50 years? (and as GC/GWS show, the AFL does look at it in those terms).
 

Quolls19

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The league could afford to go to 24 teams but scheduling difficulties and the need for an extended season makes that very unlikely. 2 equal divisions of 12 could work with a joint finals system but there are obvious issues with that.
22 could work where each team plays each other once with their rival club an additional game, keeps 22 games.
Alternate home and away each year.
Tassy yes but NT may struggle unless it is a team that represents Northern Australia, home games shared Darwin, cairns, Rocky and Mackay with one in the springs and 1 bought game for Port Moresby.

That would need another 2 WA and SA could manage easily, a longer term view could be Newcastle, Wollongong, north Sydney or central coast, however it is very unlikely that current AFL sides will need to move or fold.
 

Seedsfan

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They predict that the Australian population could reach 70m by the end of the century so we will be seeing more teams
 

Kwality

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I’d aim for 23. 10 in Melbourne/Geelong 4 in Perth 3 in Adelaide 2 in Sydney 1 in Brisbane 1 in Queensland 1 in Tasmania and 1 Territories team

Works out at roughly 450k population per team in footy states and 2m per team in non-footy states
Got too many players of AFL standard on your list?
No worries, they grow on trees hidden, the 2nd tier is full of them, they just dont get drafted.
 

kranger

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Like this video shows for the NFL, the logistics of travel would have to be a big consideration for any new teams should they be located in new small cities that currently don't have a team. Especially in comparison to adding teams to existing markets such as Perth and Sydney with lots of flights in and out of and existing stadiums etc.

 

Seedsfan

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Got too many players of AFL standard on your list?
No worries, they grow on trees hidden, the 2nd tier is full of them, they just dont get drafted.
Look it’s going to be a long while yet before we see new teams so the standard won’t dip
 

Kwality

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Look it’s going to be a long while yet before we see new teams so the standard won’t dip
It already has, a number of teams have been struggling for years to put a competitive squad together, the gap between the best & worse is as apparent today as it was in ALL State comps.
 

Seedsfan

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It already has, a number of teams have been struggling for years to put a competitive squad together, the gap between the best & worse is as apparent today as it was in ALL State comps.
I agree that now isn’t the right time to expand as we have to bed down the suns and Giants and then look to grow the footprint of the game and the grass roots and give that 20 years to consolidate before we look to expand again
 

Kwality

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I agree that now isn’t the right time to expand as we have to bed down the suns and Giants and then look to grow the footprint of the game and the grass roots and give that 20 years to consolidate before we look to expand again
Ducking reality over expansion has cost us in terms of beingf an elite comp, Demetriou squibbed it over the Gold Coast & the die was cast.
 
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