Will we make finals?

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hutchy31

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2014
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Funny. I thought we blew it in 2016 by losing the last game and finishing 7th which meant we missed a home Elim final.

Rest is history.....

Pretty sure by the time we played Freo we knew it didn't matter if we won or lost, we couldn't get a home final anyway. Yep, just checked the ladder and WC were already on 16 wins in 6th with a percentage of 130. 16 wins and 130 and they were sixth! What a weird year.

Problem we have is relying on other games now just to get in, plus this team doesn't look anywhere near as competent as that 2016 team. The latter was 15-6 going into the last round, and we'll be at best four wins behind that going into the hawks game.

But where there's still hope we can cling on to it I suppose. Whoever finishes fifth won't be in awesome form going into finals, and there's a chance it'll be at home anyway (if dees or pies slip to fifth). If it's not then it could be Freo or Brisbane, neither of whom are in awesome form.

I just wish our side was in better form, and had some level of competence defensively, as then maybe we'd all be a bit more positive about the potential outcomes.
 

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Libbaaaa

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Jun 1, 2021
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If the favourites win out across both rounds we make it, which is insane.
 

Martyn_30_

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Sep 14, 2007
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What possible reason do people think the side won't win the last two? The last two weeks have been quite reflective of where the sides sit on the ladder. How exactly do the Giants win in Melbourne with their putrid form with nothing on the line and Hawthorn who play a style that suits the awful zone defence and also have nothing on the line? Outside of the Adelaide game the side hasn't lost a game it should have won all year.
 

dogwatch

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GWS - I’m hopeful of a win.
Hawthorn at UTAS - worries me.

And if the players think losing a must-win match against an inferior opponent might just bag them a new coach, well who knows how that might play out.
 

The Inbetweener

Norm Smith Medallist
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What possible reason do people think the side won't win the last two? The last two weeks have been quite reflective of where the sides sit on the ladder. How exactly do the Giants win in Melbourne with their putrid form with nothing on the line and Hawthorn who play a style that suits the awful zone defence and also have nothing on the line? Outside of the Adelaide game the side hasn't lost a game it should have won all year.
Hawks beat us down there last year, so there’s that.

The main thing for me overall though is I think Carlton are better than Collingwood, so I think they’ll win that game. We really needed to beat Freo to keep an advantage
 

Doggy

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May 20, 2006
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Hawks beat us down there last year, so there’s that.

The main thing for me overall though is I think Carlton are better than Collingwood, so I think they’ll win that game. We really needed to beat Freo to keep an advantage
Without most of their midfield and maybe no Cripps as well? Would be a good effort
 

The Inbetweener

Norm Smith Medallist
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Without most of their midfield and maybe no Cripps as well? Would be a good effort
Taylor Adams is a big out for the Pies in my opinion. Just feel like the Blues will really lift for it and Collingwood’s run of close wins won’t last forever. Just my opinion though.
 

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Doggy

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May 20, 2006
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Taylor Adams is a big out for the Pies in my opinion. Just feel like the Blues will really lift for it and Collingwood’s run of close wins won’t last forever. Just my opinion though.
Carltank have more out. Collingwood playing much better
 

ScragCity

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Sep 7, 2015
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If the favourites win out across both rounds we make it, which is insane.

The favourites winning all of six games is still an unlikely outcome though. Let's say each favourite has about a 66% chance to win (pretty generous), then the chance that the favourite wins in all six games is 8%.

This is why the betting agencies can profitably offer 5:1 odds on us making finals.
 
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dogwatch

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The favourites winning all of six games is still an unlikely outcome though. Let's say each favourite has about a 66% chance to win (pretty generous), then the chance that the favourite wins in all six games is 8%.
But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself 😊)
 

stevieg1969

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Aug 26, 2013
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But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself 😊)

The only interchangeable matches are those involving St.Kilda. They need to lose one of their matches v Brisbane and Sydney. If Carlton win or we lose a match then we are out.
 

Blue1980

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Odds for you guys now $4 to make the 8, which I personally think is still great value.

We look cooked, our most realistic play is hoping Hawks beat you guys R23, and saints don’t win their last 2.

Next most likely way we make it is if Pies bubble is burst and they don’t keep winning every week by a goal and we wake up from our slumber with Kennedy and maybe Hewett back.
 

Al dente

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Sep 11, 2019
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are there still people who have watched us this year who still want us to play finals?
 

ScragCity

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But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself 😊)

According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.
 

House_of_Dahl

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 12, 2012
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According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.
But each match we play we'll have a 66% chance to win - better than average.

And each match Saints play they'll have a 66% chance to lose.

So just take one game at a time and you can be 66% optimistic each time.

Lies damned lies and statistics 😁
 

TiAn_

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 19, 2006
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According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.

16% is just a roll of the dice
 

Charlie Bucket

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Nov 16, 2015
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You'd rather the alternative of 9th or 10th?

I find it hard to believe if we did manage to make it you and every other supporter wouldn't feel some excitement in the lead up to the first final.

I’d say a lot of the supporters who are preferring us to not make finals, to make some sort of point, are more recent/younger fans that haven’t been following the club through some of its dirt poor periods of no success, no grand finals, no preliminary final wins, no amazing finals runs.

No all, but a lot would be too young or too new to know what following this team has been like. Up until 2016, it was decades of heartbreak and disappointment.

Too many take the last 7 years for granted. We won’t be making multiple GF’s and winning premierships every 8 years from here on in. You can guarantee that. And we certainly won’t be making finals every year. F***ing enjoy it while it’s here.
 

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