Will we make finals?

Remove this Banner Ad

Sentinel

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 15, 2012
6,570
18,896
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Yes, that's right.

Sydney should have the greater incentive to win. Lose and they almost certainly won't make top 4. Collingwood can lose this week and still make top 4 if they beat Carlton.

For those wanting us to make finals, a Sydney win is the best result and gives us the best chance.
Feels so dirty supporting Melbourne and now Sydney this weekend. Need a good bath after tomorrow.
 

Next Waiting

Premiership Player
Jan 19, 2014
4,919
7,978
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I’d imagine that ending Carlton’s season would be motivating enough for them
Carlton were very competitive tonight and on that performance would be a difficult first week opponent.

Pies might need extra motivation to go with that sort of intent. A Sydney win tomorrow might give it to them. It's the last straw left to clutch at....
 

TommyD13

Club Legend
Jul 31, 2016
2,993
2,221
Adelaide
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Adelaide United Southampton
On average we score 90 points per game. Carlton score 85. If you just use these as a rough guide:

WB 90
HAW 76

CAR 85
COL 86

Is the closest case of a positive scenario for us. Anything above this makes it more and more comfortable.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
25,769
41,675
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
Whatever happens now our finals fate will come down to the season's last day of H&A games.

We play first.

A narrow win over the Hawks ...
If Hawthorn kick their average score for the season (83) and we win by just one point (84-83).
Let's say Collingwood then kicks its average score for the year too (86). In that situation they would have to win by 14 points (86-72) for us to overtake Carlton.
However if Collingwood kick 100 points then we only need them to win by 12 (100-88).
But if they only kick 72 points then we need them to win by 15. (72-57)
And so on.

Leaving the fingernails intact ...
All this becomes academic if we can smash out a decent margin against the Hawks. A three goal win would almost certainly be enough. Then all we'd need is any sort of Collingwood win over Carlton.

The nightmare scenario ...
We scrape out a very narrow win over Hawthorn. Say 1 point.
Collingwood need a win but but don't care about the margin because their percentage is too far below the others to make any difference.
Carlton would like a win but will still make the finals if they lose by less than 11 points.
Without them coming to any spoken agreement the last 10 minutes end up with both sides chipping the ball around their half-back line and neither side trying to score. Collingwood win 87-79.

The EPL start all games in the final round of the season at the same time, precisely to rule out this sort of scenario.
 

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
25,769
41,675
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
Carlton were very competitive tonight and on that performance would be a difficult first week opponent.

Pies might need extra motivation to go with that sort of intent. A Sydney win tomorrow might give it to them. It's the last straw left to clutch at....
That was better than a lot of their recent efforts and they certainly looked up for it.

But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?
If Collingwood get a run-on early in the third quarter will Carlton implode like we did in the GF last year after a gruelling finals series?

Where's the smart money going Kenny?
I'm not even sure we'll beat Hawthorn. Carlton would still have to be strong favourites ahead of us.
I'm not even going to consider the Richmond possibility at this stage.
 

Next Waiting

Premiership Player
Jan 19, 2014
4,919
7,978
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
That was better than a lot of their recent efforts and they certainly looked up for it.

But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?
If Collingwood get a run-on early in the third quarter will Carlton implode like we did in the GF last year after a gruelling finals series?


I'm not even sure we'll beat Hawthorn. Carlton would still have to be strong favourites ahead of us.
I'm not even going to consider the Richmond possibility at this stage.
Yes, am thinking this too. Will be indicative of their mettle, such as it might be, if they can get up again next week. There were very good contributions from their lesser players tonight and they had a few outs. Hoping they can't repeat the effort.

We, on the other hand, need to find an effort or two of that calibre. Agree, Hawks are no gimme.
 

Next Waiting

Premiership Player
Jan 19, 2014
4,919
7,978
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Feels so dirty supporting Melbourne and now Sydney this weekend. Need a good bath after tomorrow.
But wait...there's more

Apart from supporting Melbourne today and Sydney tomorrow, how would you feel about supporting The Orange next Saturday against Freo if the Lions can beat Melbourne next Friday in order to avoid a trip West (should we and the Pies win) and to set up an Elimination Final v Melbourne at the G in the first week.

🤯
 

Doggy

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2006
11,753
8,677
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Wtf
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20220814-001507_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20220814-001507_Chrome.jpg
    201.5 KB · Views: 152

threenewpadlocks

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 10, 2012
12,212
16,837
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
While I think the difference between the two is a bit extreme, it's not entirely illogical. Carlton are already considered a worse team than us (ie we'd start fav in a head-to-head matchup) and we can only win the flag if we win next week with a win suggesting we're in good form carrying two wins into finals. Whereas Carlton can still theoretically get pumped by 100 points next week and still make finals if we lose, and would subsequently be one of the biggest outsiders in a semi-final in history if they scraped over an elimination final win (say Geelong surprisingly lose their QF there would be an expectation that they win by at least five or six goals against Carlton which is both extremely rare and also wouldn't be the expected margin of victory vs the Dogs)

If you open a excel spreadsheet or use a calculator or a piece of paper you'd come to the same conclusions. Bit counter-intuitive but it's true.
 

Snarls Barkley

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 7, 2012
7,720
9,268
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
San Antonio, West Ham, Renegades
But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?

Maybe but I don’t think so. I would see tonight as bit of a free hit. Obviously would’ve been gutted to lose when they got so close but when they weren’t expected to have a chance, finally playing some genuinely good footy after a few stinkers in a row, I think you take nothing but confidence from that performance and it will benefit them.

A strong chance to get some of their better players back too. You’d think Kennedy definitely, probably Williams, maybe Cerra after being a late out (I don’t know how serious the injury was), Hewett probably still no chance though. Thought it was a pretty impressive effort from their midfield considering they had three of their main five midfielder out, although Docherty did step up in there and Setterfield did a pretty decent job going head to head with Oliver after QT.
 

revo333

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 7, 2018
5,027
4,341
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I'd probably worry about us actually playing good enough to beat Hawthorn in tassie before worrying what Carlton are going to do.

Another issue is that Collingwood have not being convincingly beating teams so you'd think Carlton should be in the game for most of it.
 

The Inbetweener

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 25, 2011
6,537
8,778
Footscray
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
If Collingwood win tomorrow have they got anything at stake to play for vs Carlton?

Seems they win tomorrow they are guaranteed top 4
They will be locked in for top 4 but if lions beat Dees at the Gabba they’ll need to win to get 2nd place and secure a home final
 

TommyD13

Club Legend
Jul 31, 2016
2,993
2,221
Adelaide
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Adelaide United Southampton
Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

The Inbetweener

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 25, 2011
6,537
8,778
Footscray
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
Would be handy if the Hawks could somehow upset them today, for nothing else than the increased drama
 

Chalky White

Team Captain
Sep 30, 2019
504
772
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
 

Sentinel

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 15, 2012
6,570
18,896
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
Why do Carlton "deserve" to be there ahead of us?
 

Chalky White

Team Captain
Sep 30, 2019
504
772
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Why do Carlton "deserve" to be there ahead of us?
Because in reality they've been better than us all year.
You want to put wallpaper over cracks, that's your right to do so. But for me, our coach and selection policy is shot.
We need a new voice, a new game plan and reset.
When we won the flag in 2016 I at the time thought stupidly we were in for a long string of success. Instead we have been very mediocre since.
Thanks Bevo for premiership but it's time to go.
 

Munnez

Club Legend
Apr 2, 2018
2,712
2,768
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I believe a 4-5 goal win is about all we need to make % irrelevant.

This week doesn't make a big difference to Melbourne's fortunes, get on them for the win then a loss to Brisbane next week which likely sees them finish outside the top 4. Sure would make the dynasty a little shakey.
Melbourne aren't anywhere near the team they were last year. And it might be as I suspected that you can't continually maintain that super hard edge of fitness they had last year.
Burgess set them last year after a 2 year preparation and it all worked perfectly, but very difficult to back it up again. They definitely aren't running out games as strongly as last year
 

doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
20,276
23,015
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I understand that people will say “making finals doesn’t paper over the cracks there will be a review either way” which is hopefully true.

But it also allows Bev to say I’ve taken this club to finals in 6 of 8 years or whatever it is, yeah but we’ve won one in 2, the rest we’ve been embarrassed (2015 aside) 😂

Times up
 

Northernsoul74

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
18,505
33,903
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
 

Next Waiting

Premiership Player
Jan 19, 2014
4,919
7,978
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
dogwatch (AKA Kenny Callendar) what are the odds of this happening?
 

Chalky White

Team Captain
Sep 30, 2019
504
772
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
That's fine, but is he going to be held to account? His stubbornness with selection, trading, drafting, game plan are all very questionable.
Even the most positive of our supporters has to be able to see the continued mistakes.
Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
 

Sentinel

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 15, 2012
6,570
18,896
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Because in reality they've been better than us all year.
You want to put wallpaper over cracks, that's your right to do so. But for me, our coach and selection policy is shot.
We need a new voice, a new game plan and reset.
When we won the flag in 2016 I at the time thought stupidly we were in for a long string of success. Instead we have been very mediocre since.
Thanks Bevo for premiership but it's time to go.
If we make it in ahead of Carlton its because we have a better record than them, with both teams having quite similar W-L vs top 8 and bottom 10 sides. Did you think we "deserved" to make top 4 last year when we missed out?

It's also a big assumption to say that if we make the 8 we'll just wallpaper over the cracks whilst that wouldn't happen if we just fall short. Do you really think it's that black and white?
 

doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
20,276
23,015
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
If we make it in ahead of Carlton its because we have a better record than them, with both teams having quite similar W-L vs top 8 and bottom 10 sides. Did you think we "deserved" to make top 4 last year when we missed out?

It's also a big assumption to say that if we make the 8 we'll just wallpaper over the cracks whilst that wouldn't happen if we just fall short. Do you really think it's that black and white?
It is hard to sack the coach on a finals appearance, would be a lot easier of a sell on a non finals appearance, once again, after making a granny
 

Sentinel

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 15, 2012
6,570
18,896
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
It is hard to sack the coach on a finals appearance, would be a lot easier of a sell on a non finals appearance, once again, after making a granny
He's not getting sacked this off season regardless. You might have some luck mid-season or end of next year when his contract runs out if we haven't improved or even regressed.
 

Remove this Banner Ad