Will we make finals?

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gangsta deluxe

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I’m assuming (aside from any argument about whether we want to be in or not) that the following is the ideal outcome:

1. Collingwood lose this week and swans win
2. Collingwood beat Carlton next week
3. We beat hawthorn next week
4. Brisbane beat Melbourne next week
5. Freo beat gws next week
6. Sydney beat st kinda next week

This should give us an elimination against Melbourne.
 

TommyD13

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I genuinely hope that we don't make finals.

The benefits of not making finals are a longer break, a better draw next year and a better draft pick, among others. I don't believe we are any chance of achieving any success in this year's finals series and I don't think there's anything to be gained by making it. I suspect that the benefits of a game or two of finals experience into our younger players are overstated.

I believe that we are a much better chance at
achieving real success next year and I think missing finals this year improves our chances next season.

Ultimately I want as much success as possible for the club, just like I presume all of you do. The difference of opinion is that I believe we are better placed to have more overall success if we end our season early this year. I'm not advocating that we tank or anything like that either. I just think it would be a better outcome for us if we miss and therefore I find myself hoping that we do.
See your point. But just for clarity, draw becomes no easier regardless of where you finish in the middle six. Finishing ninth is same likelihood of easier or harder draw than making and losing a final. See your view for the rest however.
 

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MYOB

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I'm for the club improving. We have gone backwards, in fact we've been atrocious this year.
Without change we won't improve.
So if that's barracking against or splitting hairs I don't really care.
It's my opinion we can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and think results will change.
Doing the same thing, like making grand finals
 

NBates

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I’m assuming (aside from any argument about whether we want to be in or not) that the following is the ideal outcome:

1. Collingwood lose this week and swans win
2. Collingwood beat Carlton next week
3. We beat hawthorn next week
4. Brisbane beat Melbourne next week
5. Freo beat gws next week
6. Sydney beat st kinda next week

This should give us an elimination against Melbourne.
I was just looking at the 'how we get in' and I was surprised everyone was basically saying Carlton's season is over - huh? I just don't get that. (when I say everyone, I mean media).
 

Next Waiting

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I’m assuming (aside from any argument about whether we want to be in or not) that the following is the ideal outcome:

1. Collingwood lose this week and swans win
2. Collingwood beat Carlton next week
3. We beat hawthorn next week
4. Brisbane beat Melbourne next week
5. Freo beat gws next week GWS beat Freo next week
6. Sydney beat st kinda next week

This should give us an elimination against Melbourne.
 

Anja_Nees

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I’m assuming (aside from any argument about whether we want to be in or not) that the following is the ideal outcome:

1. Collingwood lose this week and swans win
2. Collingwood beat Carlton next week
3. We beat hawthorn next week
4. Brisbane beat Melbourne next week
5. Freo beat gws next week
6. Sydney beat st kinda next week

This should give us an elimination against Melbourne.
Getting the opportunity to knock them out first week of finals would be amazing.

I can understand the positives of missing out in terms of getting a good run at the preseason, but I’d always rather be there.

I thought we would get pancaked week one in 2016 in Perth, and plenty thought we were in trouble against Essendon week one last year. Unlikely to get past week two if we get in, but much prefer to have a crack. If we knocked Melbourne out it would be cathartic.
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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I’m assuming (aside from any argument about whether we want to be in or not) that the following is the ideal outcome:

1. Collingwood lose this week and swans win
2. Collingwood beat Carlton next week
3. We beat hawthorn next week
4. Brisbane beat Melbourne next week
5. Freo beat gws next week
6. Sydney beat st kinda next week

This should give us an elimination against Melbourne.
Do not think so if the above happens
ladder After 23 rounds

cats 68
swans 64
lions 64
pies 64

freo 62
dees 60
tigers 64
dogs 48


Means we play Freo. Really unless Freo lose to GWS there is no other option if we are do make it because the pies need to beat the blues.
 
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maddog37

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You can make the point without being so unnecessarily derogatory though. There is no reason for us to talk to each other like we sometimes do on here.
I Guess If You Say So GIF
 

Next Waiting

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Getting the opportunity to knock them out first week of finals would be amazing.

I can understand the positives of missing out in terms of getting a good run at the preseason, but I’d always rather be there.

I thought we would get pancaked week one in 2016 in Perth, and plenty thought we were in trouble against Essendon week one last year. Unlikely to get past week two if we get in, but much prefer to have a crack. If we knocked Melbourne out it would be cathartic.
Tempered by fire. We must always strive to make finals regardless of how we think we might fare.
 

Flags_In_The_Bag

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Not a fan of overseas teams.....
Without doing a ladder predictor, if we win and Carlton loose and Brisbane beat Melbourne, we could be in an elimination final with Melbourne. Imagine that. The two grand finalist one year, then the next year in an elimination final.
 

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Next Waiting

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Tempered by fire. We must always strive to make finals regardless of how we think we might fare.
Why is it that much of the time only people of a certain age and experience understand what this means. It's possibly the same reason that players of a certain age and experience don't fully appreciate where their duty and obligations lie. It's to each other. You work as hard for your team mates as you possibly can whether you like your coach or not.
 
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Chalky White

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I genuinely hope that we don't make finals.

The benefits of not making finals are a longer break, a better draw next year and a better draft pick, among others. I don't believe we are any chance of achieving any success in this year's finals series and I don't think there's anything to be gained by making it. I suspect that the benefits of a game or two of finals experience into our younger players are overstated.

I believe that we are a much better chance at
achieving real success next year and I think missing finals this year improves our chances next season.

Ultimately I want as much success as possible for the club, just like I presume all of you do. The difference of opinion is that I believe we are better placed to have more overall success if we end our season early this year. I'm not advocating that we tank or anything like that either. I just think it would be a better outcome for us if we miss and therefore I find myself hoping that we do.
Exactly
 

dogwatch

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I genuinely hope that we don't make finals.

The benefits of not making finals are a longer break, a better draw next year and a better draft pick, among others. I don't believe we are any chance of achieving any success in this year's finals series and I don't think there's anything to be gained by making it. I suspect that the benefits of a game or two of finals experience into our younger players are overstated.

I believe that we are a much better chance at
achieving real success next year and I think missing finals this year improves our chances next season.

Ultimately I want as much success as possible for the club, just like I presume all of you do. The difference of opinion is that I believe we are better placed to have more overall success if we end our season early this year. I'm not advocating that we tank or anything like that either. I just think it would be a better outcome for us if we miss and therefore I find myself hoping that we do.
Disagree, although I respect the fact that you've gone into some detail with your reasons and not just re-stated a cliche about wallpaper and cracks.

My reasons (apart from the emotional and ingrained one of always wanting my team to win any time they are playing) are:
  • Develop a winning culture and a winning mindset
  • Self-belief ("we've been finalists for the last three years ... we're worthy") rather than an inferiority ninthscray sort of complex
  • Important finals experience for those who have never played there before
  • A belief or a hope that we might just go further than week one whoever and wherever we play. We are a bit dispirited, uncohesive and banged up at the moment but we saw in 2016 how the pre-finals bye provided a massive benefit to us even if those circumstances were somewhat different to today's. The point being that finals form is often different to H&A form, even recent H&A form.
  • The chance that our walking wounded will have healed a bit by the time the EF comes around. Bont, Macrae, Naughton ... maybe others we're not aware of. If those three come out refreshed it could give us a real lift.
  • The impact that a positive finish to the season might have on the decisions of one or two players who may be weighing up whether to go elsewhere (but not those who have already made up their mind).
That said, there are still the benefits you've mentioned if we happen to miss out. They are only minor ones but they will give me some small consolation if we don't make it. However ...
  • If we get knocked out in week 1 of the finals I don't think it makes any practical difference to the duration of our off season. Maybe even the same for a week 2 final.
  • The draft benefit is marginal. While it's always more comforting to have a higher draft pick the difference between pick 9 and pick 10 is almost inconsequential. Just ask any honest St Kilda fan about whether having higher picks has been of benefit to them over the last decade. It's much much more to do with the eye and acumen of the list managers.
  • The better draw doesn't come into it because as noted above you are in the same pool of six whether you finish 7th or 12th.
However the draw DOES comes into it if we happen to win week 1. We would automatically be elevated into the top group (1st to 6th).
That raises another challenging question for the diehard WB supporter: if we win week 1 do you want us to win week 2? And if we win week 2 well of course we'd want to win week 3 and play in the GF. Where do you stop wanting us to lose?

In the end though, it's not so much driven by the rationalisations as by the gut feeling. That emotional pull.
I just want us to make the finals.
 

brmi

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If results go our way and we end up finishing 8th, I don't mind who we play first week of the finals.

Got a feeling we can pull a rabbit out of the hat and have a big impact in September.
 

Anja_Nees

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Sydney on top, but not too much. If they keep it up then Collingwood have a lot on the line next week.

Hawthorn we’re very poor today. Might be a down week, or maybe they’re done. Either way, no reason we can’t get past them next week.

Tilting our way a bit.
 

gangsta deluxe

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Do not think so if the above happens
ladder After 23 rounds

cats 68
swans 64
lions 64
pies 64

freo 62
dees 60
tigers 64
dogs 48


Means we play Freo. Really unless Freo lose to GWS there is no other option if we are do make it because the pies need to beat the blues.

Ah that’s a Bugger.

Anyway it’s still possible we play the Dees (assuming the Freo loss to gws). I don’t think we can play Collingwood sadly.
 
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dogwatch

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I should have added another reason for wanting us to get into the finals. It's the bird in the hand being worth two in the bush.

By that I mean that if you offer me a place in this year's finals against the possibility that we might do better next year and finish higher on the ladder, maybe even top 4, I'll take this year's finals with barely a second thought.

A lot can change in the off-season with comings and goings of players and coaches, repair of injured bodies, natural ageing and even rule changes (remember Third Man Up?) Some of these things might work to our benefit but some may work even more to the benefit of our competitors. I've followed the Dogs too long to get genuinely excited about our new season prospects until I actually see how we play over the first 3-4 rounds. 2016 and 2021 also taught me that a grand final appearance is possible from anywhere in the top 8.

Bird in the hand for me. (Doesn't mean I can't go looking for the two in the bush as well!)
 

Mutt

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I hope we play finals and the club's leadership recognises we pretty much Bradbury'd our way in... and implements a thorough review at season's end.

Whether that review results in a new senior coach or not is secondary to us addressing the glaring issues relating to our coaching, gameplan, gameday tactics, selection etc. Bevo need not be replaced if the club asserts better all-around leadership in the football department. No more one-man-band 1950's style leadership thanks.

As a supporter group, we are maturing I suppose, for many of us won't accept that a flag 6 years ago and a near miss last year is not the dynasty we supporters wanted and expected. We have Bevo delivering a flag to thank for that change. We will forever be grateful to him. He's a club legend.

However, we've never looked like being a dominant side under Bevo and haven't finished the home and away season in a top 4 position for more than a decade (2010). Hopefully he can improve our consistency and build that dynasty...but if he doesn't want to or can't implement a different game plan and a better coaching group then someone else should.

tldr: I want us to play finals but also not ignore that with one game to go we are a long shot to even make the 8.
 

hutchy31

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Without doing a ladder predictor, if we win and Carlton loose and Brisbane beat Melbourne, we could be in an elimination final with Melbourne. Imagine that. The two grand finalist one year, then the next year in an elimination final.

I think that’s possible but unlikely, unless Freo lose to GWS or there’s a Sydney loss with percentage implications.

  • We can only be 8th so would play 5th
  • Geelong, Brisbane and pies above Melbourne (if pies win next week, which we obviously need them to do)
  • Freo will jump above Melbourne if the dees lose and Freo beat GWS
  • Sydney and Melbourne on virtually the same percentage, so unless Sydney only win one of todays game and next week v Saints and somehow finish with a lower percentage than the dees they’ll also jump them

TLDR - I believe it’s much more likely Freo finish fifth, and loser of Brisbane and Melbourne finish sixth in a scenario where we play finals (as it requires a pies win next week).

Pies lose to Carlton next week and there are different scenarios but obviously none that involve us.
 

Anja_Nees

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I hope we play finals and the club's leadership recognises we pretty much Bradbury'd our way in... and implements a thorough review at season's end.

Whether that review results in a new senior coach or not is secondary to us addressing the glaring issues relating to our coaching, gameplan, gameday tactics, selection etc. Bevo need not be replaced if the club asserts better all-around leadership in the football department. No more one-man-band 1950's style leadership thanks.

As a supporter group, we are maturing I suppose, for many of us won't accept that a flag 6 years ago and a near miss last year is not the dynasty we supporters wanted and expected. We have Bevo delivering a flag to thank for that change. We will forever be grateful to him. He's a club legend.

However, we've never looked like being a dominant side under Bevo and haven't finished the home and away season in a top 4 position for more than a decade (2010). Hopefully he can improve our consistency and build that dynasty...but if he doesn't want to or can't implement a different game plan and a better coaching group then someone else should.

tldr: I want us to play finals but also not ignore that with one game to go we are a long shot to even make the 8.
I think Bevo well and truly knows it will be a Bradbury if we play finals based on his presser.

I agree it’s disappointing we haven’t actually finished a season in the top four like we did 2008-2010, but it’s worth noting that we won as many games in Bevo’s best three seasons as we did in those years (15, 15 and 14).*

We’ve been pretty unlucky not to have finished top four once or twice given that, particularly last year (and finishing as low as 7th with 15 wins was ridiculous).

We do need to do better, but I don’t think it’s at all a coincidence our only two grand finals appearances since the 1960s were under the same coach.

*with a draw in ‘08
 

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