Will we make finals?

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Oliver Gigacz

Premium Platinum
May 14, 2009
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Not gonna win many finals leaking 120+ uncontested marks...

Average Uncontested Marks Conceded (R18-R22)

UM1.png
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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What a big turnaround in the Blues favour Cripps In when he was out and De Goey out if he does not get up. That is probably 3 to 4 goals advantage to the blues.
 
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X_box_X

The Opportunist
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Don't agree, they have won more than lost against top 8 teams, including 2 wins against Melbourne.

Their only losses against top 4 teams were a 13 point loss to Geelong and a 7 point loss to Brisbane in Brisbane.

I don't know how they'll go in finals but they are a decent team who will be competitive.
They never should have lost that match against Geelong either. They were about six goals up IIRC.
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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Bevo has played this like the mastermind he is. Been playing such a poor defensive system that no clubs fear us and take us for granted. At training we have perfected our man on man defence that we will slowly switch to.

Bevo has been playing possum all year and we will go all the way. Other teams will not know what hits them.

unfortunateky he struggle wth maths so got a little mixed up on how many wins required.

Alternative he is now just a poor coach who has only been good when surrounded by good assistants.

Do not think Maths is his problem he worked for ATO in an audit role.
 

Anja_Nees

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 14, 2001
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What a big turnaround in the Blues favour Cripps In when he was out and De Goey out if he does not get up. That is probably 3 to 4 goals advantage to the blues.
McRae said they took De Goey up thinking he might come good, so I think it’s likely he’ll play.

Ginnivan is obviously gone, but I don’t think he’s as much of a loss.
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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Sunday Bloody Sunday it is going be a long day if we beat hawks hopefully by 18 points or more, then we just need the pies to win by point. Our game starts at 1.10 with a bulldogs scarf and then pies V blues game at 3.20 (do not have a black and white scarf) will finish just before 6.00 pm.
 
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Martyn_30_

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Sep 14, 2007
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How'd the team missing the 8 in 2017 in almost identical circumstances turn out? The wheels completely fell off the next year and people somehow still view the dismal failure of missing the eight as a positive thing. I'd much rather be a club that views finals as the bare minimum you expect every year and not an achievement.
 

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X_box_X

The Opportunist
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Doing a ladder predictor based purely on TAB current lines for round 23:

View attachment 1477358
View attachment 1477361
View attachment 1477363



View attachment 1477366
Update Tuesday afternoon based on current lines:

Brisbane win by 2
Freo by 15
GCS by 20
Geelong by 58
Richmond by 23
Port by 19
Bulldogs by 16
Carlton by 1
Sydney by 18


1660626315500.png


Bookies have Carlton as a very slight favourite but the more interesting thing is our expected winning margin (16) less Carlton's expected winning margin (1) equals 15.

Assuming we win by the expected score (90-74) and Carlton win by the expected score (83-82), the final percentages will be:

Bulldogs: 108.452
Carlton: 108.425
 

Optimistic Dog

Club Legend
Oct 11, 2014
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Update Tuesday afternoon based on current lines:

Brisbane win by 2
Freo by 15
GCS by 20
Geelong by 58
Richmond by 23
Port by 19
Bulldogs by 16
Carlton by 1
Sydney by 18


View attachment 1479451

Bookies have Carlton as a very slight favourite but the more interesting thing is our expected winning margin (16) less Carlton's expected winning margin (1) equals 15.

Assuming we win by the expected score (90-74) and Carlton win by the expected score (83-82), the final percentages will be:

Bulldogs: 108.452
Carlton: 108.425
Why does that matter they will still be 4 points ahead.
 

MITSUHIRATO

All Australian
Jul 25, 2018
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Kennedy, Hewitt, Williams and Cerra all missing for Carlton. Their midfield has no depth.
I thought the same thing, however Cripps, Walsh, Docherty and Setterfield did a solid job against Melbournes midfield by winning the clearances (even though we got smashed in the hit outs).
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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Why does that matter they will still be 4 points ahead.



It matters if Collingwood win by 1 point and we win by 14. A combination of a 15 point differential, in addition to the Dogs and Pies winning, will result in us jumping into the top eight. :thumbsu:

Yes but your example has Carlton winning. see below

Bookies have Carlton as a very slight favourite but the more interesting thing is our expected winning margin (16) less Carlton's expected winning margin (1) equals 15.

Assuming we win by the expected score (90-74) and Carlton win by the expected score (83-82), the final percentages will be:

Bulldogs: 108.452
Carlton: 108.425
 

footscray1973

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"In-depth" analysis elsewhere on this board apparently showing the only reason, the ONLY REASON, we will miss finals, is because JUH is NOT Josh Schache.

I'm not here to be a detractor of Josh, goodness knows he cops enough of it on here as it is. But in spite of totally flawed statistical comparisons in the so-called "analysis", it seems if Josh played games this year and JUH didn't, we would have romped into the 8. Go figure.

ZL22NoT7.jpg
 

Sentinel

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 15, 2012
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Yes, there are possibilities, although unlikely and irrelevant.

For example, if our score is 109 - 97 and Carlton's score is 79 - 83. Our for and against would be 1995 - 1845 (108.1300813...%) and Carlton's would be 1862 - 1722 (also 108.1300813...%).

If this were to be the case though, I believe 3rd order of precedence is total points for, in which case we'd be ahead. There's obviously no real possibility of Carlton making up that extra 130 points and losing.
Correction to my post above - in the extremely unlikely but still possible scenario that we tie points and %, Carlton get in based on H2H record over us (rather than total points for which I stated above). The odds of it occuring are astronomical anyway but just in case..
 

X_box_X

The Opportunist
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While we're on the subject:

If these results occur:

Sydney 81 defeated by St Kilda 108
Melbourne 79 defeated by Brisbane 94

The Swans and Dees will be equal on the ladder with the same points and percentage.
Sydney: 2060 - 1648 = 125%
Melbourne: 1900 - 1520 = 125%
 

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