Will we make finals?

Whatever happens now our finals fate will come down to the season's last day of H&A games.

We play first.

A narrow win over the Hawks ...
If Hawthorn kick their average score for the season (83) and we win by just one point (84-83).
Let's say Collingwood then kicks its average score for the year too (86). In that situation they would have to win by 14 points (86-72) for us to overtake Carlton.
However if Collingwood kick 100 points then we only need them to win by 12 (100-88).
But if they only kick 72 points then we need them to win by 15. (72-57)
And so on.

Leaving the fingernails intact ...
All this becomes academic if we can smash out a decent margin against the Hawks. A three goal win would almost certainly be enough. Then all we'd need is any sort of Collingwood win over Carlton.

The nightmare scenario ...
We scrape out a very narrow win over Hawthorn. Say 1 point.
Collingwood need a win but but don't care about the margin because their percentage is too far below the others to make any difference.
Carlton would like a win but will still make the finals if they lose by less than 11 points.
Without them coming to any spoken agreement the last 10 minutes end up with both sides chipping the ball around their half-back line and neither side trying to score. Collingwood win 87-79.

The EPL start all games in the final round of the season at the same time, precisely to rule out this sort of scenario.
 
Carlton were very competitive tonight and on that performance would be a difficult first week opponent.

Pies might need extra motivation to go with that sort of intent. A Sydney win tomorrow might give it to them. It's the last straw left to clutch at....
That was better than a lot of their recent efforts and they certainly looked up for it.

But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?
If Collingwood get a run-on early in the third quarter will Carlton implode like we did in the GF last year after a gruelling finals series?

Where's the smart money going Kenny?
I'm not even sure we'll beat Hawthorn. Carlton would still have to be strong favourites ahead of us.
I'm not even going to consider the Richmond possibility at this stage.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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That was better than a lot of their recent efforts and they certainly looked up for it.

But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?
If Collingwood get a run-on early in the third quarter will Carlton implode like we did in the GF last year after a gruelling finals series?


I'm not even sure we'll beat Hawthorn. Carlton would still have to be strong favourites ahead of us.
I'm not even going to consider the Richmond possibility at this stage.
Yes, am thinking this too. Will be indicative of their mettle, such as it might be, if they can get up again next week. There were very good contributions from their lesser players tonight and they had a few outs. Hoping they can't repeat the effort.

We, on the other hand, need to find an effort or two of that calibre. Agree, Hawks are no gimme.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 19, 2014
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Feels so dirty supporting Melbourne and now Sydney this weekend. Need a good bath after tomorrow.
But wait...there's more

Apart from supporting Melbourne today and Sydney tomorrow, how would you feel about supporting The Orange next Saturday against Freo if the Lions can beat Melbourne next Friday in order to avoid a trip West (should we and the Pies win) and to set up an Elimination Final v Melbourne at the G in the first week.

🤯
 

Doggy

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May 20, 2006
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Wtf
 

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While I think the difference between the two is a bit extreme, it's not entirely illogical. Carlton are already considered a worse team than us (ie we'd start fav in a head-to-head matchup) and we can only win the flag if we win next week with a win suggesting we're in good form carrying two wins into finals. Whereas Carlton can still theoretically get pumped by 100 points next week and still make finals if we lose, and would subsequently be one of the biggest outsiders in a semi-final in history if they scraped over an elimination final win (say Geelong surprisingly lose their QF there would be an expectation that they win by at least five or six goals against Carlton which is both extremely rare and also wouldn't be the expected margin of victory vs the Dogs)

If you open a excel spreadsheet or use a calculator or a piece of paper you'd come to the same conclusions. Bit counter-intuitive but it's true.
 
Jun 7, 2012
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But have Carlton spent themselves physically and emotionally?

Maybe but I don’t think so. I would see tonight as bit of a free hit. Obviously would’ve been gutted to lose when they got so close but when they weren’t expected to have a chance, finally playing some genuinely good footy after a few stinkers in a row, I think you take nothing but confidence from that performance and it will benefit them.

A strong chance to get some of their better players back too. You’d think Kennedy definitely, probably Williams, maybe Cerra after being a late out (I don’t know how serious the injury was), Hewett probably still no chance though. Thought it was a pretty impressive effort from their midfield considering they had three of their main five midfielder out, although Docherty did step up in there and Setterfield did a pretty decent job going head to head with Oliver after QT.
 

TommyD13

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Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
 

The Inbetweener

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Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
Would be handy if the Hawks could somehow upset them today, for nothing else than the increased drama
 

Chalky White

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I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
 
Mar 15, 2012
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I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
Why do Carlton "deserve" to be there ahead of us?
 

Chalky White

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Why do Carlton "deserve" to be there ahead of us?
Because in reality they've been better than us all year.
You want to put wallpaper over cracks, that's your right to do so. But for me, our coach and selection policy is shot.
We need a new voice, a new game plan and reset.
When we won the flag in 2016 I at the time thought stupidly we were in for a long string of success. Instead we have been very mediocre since.
Thanks Bevo for premiership but it's time to go.
 

Munnez

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I believe a 4-5 goal win is about all we need to make % irrelevant.

This week doesn't make a big difference to Melbourne's fortunes, get on them for the win then a loss to Brisbane next week which likely sees them finish outside the top 4. Sure would make the dynasty a little shakey.
Melbourne aren't anywhere near the team they were last year. And it might be as I suspected that you can't continually maintain that super hard edge of fitness they had last year.
Burgess set them last year after a 2 year preparation and it all worked perfectly, but very difficult to back it up again. They definitely aren't running out games as strongly as last year
 
Sep 22, 2008
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I understand that people will say “making finals doesn’t paper over the cracks there will be a review either way” which is hopefully true.

But it also allows Bev to say I’ve taken this club to finals in 6 of 8 years or whatever it is, yeah but we’ve won one in 2, the rest we’ve been embarrassed (2015 aside) 😂

Times up
 
Jun 19, 2016
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I just hope we don't make finals. We don't deserve to be there and for me it will gloss over horrible coaching and selection all year.
Carlton deserve to be there ahead of us and I'm comfortable with an earlier draft pick.
If we do make it, we will be embarrassed by far more accomplished outfits.
Delistings and trade period are something I will be keeping a close eye on
Bring on 2023
Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Bare in mind, although unlikely, that Richmond play both their games before next Sunday. So theoretically, if they lose both, we could wake up on Sunday knowing that a win will secure finals, no matter percentage, no matter the Carlton result. Very unlikely, but a possibility. That's also assuming St Kilda don't beat Sydney by 100+
dogwatch (AKA Kenny Callendar) what are the odds of this happening?
 

Chalky White

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Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
That's fine, but is he going to be held to account? His stubbornness with selection, trading, drafting, game plan are all very questionable.
Even the most positive of our supporters has to be able to see the continued mistakes.
Going by Bevo’s post match interview he knows we don’t deserve it so hopefully there would be no glossing over.
 
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Because in reality they've been better than us all year.
You want to put wallpaper over cracks, that's your right to do so. But for me, our coach and selection policy is shot.
We need a new voice, a new game plan and reset.
When we won the flag in 2016 I at the time thought stupidly we were in for a long string of success. Instead we have been very mediocre since.
Thanks Bevo for premiership but it's time to go.
If we make it in ahead of Carlton its because we have a better record than them, with both teams having quite similar W-L vs top 8 and bottom 10 sides. Did you think we "deserved" to make top 4 last year when we missed out?

It's also a big assumption to say that if we make the 8 we'll just wallpaper over the cracks whilst that wouldn't happen if we just fall short. Do you really think it's that black and white?
 
Sep 22, 2008
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If we make it in ahead of Carlton its because we have a better record than them, with both teams having quite similar W-L vs top 8 and bottom 10 sides. Did you think we "deserved" to make top 4 last year when we missed out?

It's also a big assumption to say that if we make the 8 we'll just wallpaper over the cracks whilst that wouldn't happen if we just fall short. Do you really think it's that black and white?
It is hard to sack the coach on a finals appearance, would be a lot easier of a sell on a non finals appearance, once again, after making a granny
 
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It is hard to sack the coach on a finals appearance, would be a lot easier of a sell on a non finals appearance, once again, after making a granny
He's not getting sacked this off season regardless. You might have some luck mid-season or end of next year when his contract runs out if we haven't improved or even regressed.
 
Jun 19, 2016
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It is hard to sack the coach on a finals appearance, would be a lot easier of a sell on a non finals appearance, once again, after making a granny
Pretty sure we’re not sacking him. I could see him walk before that. Best we can hope for is a complete reset of coaches and some proper support/challenge for him.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Pretty sure we’re not sacking him. I could see him walk before that. Best we can hope for is a complete reset of coaches and some proper support/challenge for him.
How compromised are we by the soft cap? Is money for assistants any part of the problem, if there is one?
 
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