Review Winners and Losers 2019

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Stan Judkins

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2018
834
1,441
AFL Club
Richmond
Wouldn’t be surprised if someone jumps in front of Richmond every year if detailed meetings as these occur.
Seems to be working with Carlton
Tell a bunch of RANDOMS what we're going to do and bingo SOS does us a favour and drafts Stocker, Philip
Leaves our real picks alone, RFC way ahead of the curve
SOS and Our recruiters go on a fact finding trip to U.S.A regarding drafting, wala works out for both of our clubs
We win premierships, Carlton move SOS on
 

SaltPeter

"I’m a professional bullshitter"
Jan 6, 2018
6,965
7,806
AFL Club
Adelaide
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Norwood
We've been banking extra money for the last 3 years. We didn't land Conglio or Papley so had to spend it. Betts is cheap and Martin gets most of his contract up front. We now have lots of SC room in years to come. Club are extremely happy and so are most of its supporters
Do you realise that a club can only carry forward underspend of TTP for 2 year’s ..? And that the underspend can be no more than 5% of the TTP, which currently would be around $600K per year.
 

Stan Judkins

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2018
834
1,441
AFL Club
Richmond
At the very least, Carlton rated Philp higher and thought there was a chance Richmond did too. Might have been based on inside mail, might have been an educated guess, might have just been playing it safe - it only cost us a pick we weren't going to use anyway, so there was no loss in doing it.

Doubt we'll ever know who Richmond rated higher for sure, because they'll do the right thing, and the thing every club would do, and back in the player who now wears their jumper. They're hardly going to come out and say "We're pretty happy with Dow, but a little disappointed we missed out on Philp instead".
Might have been any one of guessing I can come up with as well
But I like Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the one that requires the smallest number of assumptions is usually correct. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation.
The smallest assumption is Carlton rated Philip next highest on their secret draft order sheet as did Richmond with Dow as they were both seen as reach type picks as opposed to say Robertson who was rated by the media
Also Dow was visited by Richmond, Philip wan't
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2015
21,375
58,615
AFL Club
Carlton
Do you realise that a club can only carry forward underspend of TTP for 2 year’s ..? And that the underspend can be no more than 5% of the TTP, which currently would be around $600K per year.
Yes. Had $1.2m available to pay Martin up front. We have also tied a lot of younger players up and paid them up front. Club in a good spot
 

Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
7,108
3,305
AFL Club
Gold Coast
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Liverpool
Yes. Had $1.2m available to pay Martin up front. We have also tied a lot of younger players up and paid them up front. Club in a good spot
I think after a while, you over did it. I rather read something different.
 

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Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
4,921
9,671
#BigBigSound
AFL Club
Richmond
Seems to be working with Carlton
Tell a bunch of RANDOMS what we're going to do and bingo SOS does us a favour and drafts Stocker, Philip
Leaves our real picks alone, RFC way ahead of the curve
SOS and Our recruiters go on a fact finding trip to U.S.A regarding drafting, wala works out for both of our clubs
We win premierships, Carlton move SOS on
and the bloke with the acl injury

At least 5/18 would have taken Jackson at 3.

Give it up Marcel, you are talking shit again. You have no idea.
and you dont think that qualifies as a reach?
 

Stan Judkins

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2018
834
1,441
AFL Club
Richmond
It has been mentioned in the media and no I'm not looking it up for you do it yourself.

You drafted a player to play the exact same role with the same skill set in Dow, you can pretend you didn't want Philp if it helps you sleep.
Well if it makes the Carlton supporters feel better about their club in believing media stories and fairy tales knock yourself out
Don't think I read anywhere that Carlton said they traded up so as specifically "Richmond" wouldn't draft Philip, maybe in truth was they rated Philip high and didn't want the next few clubs to nab him
No not the same skill set, maybe read their respective bio's and no I'm not looking it up for you do it yourself.
Inferring that you outdid Richmond in drafting in just a nice bed time story that lets minority Blues supporters sleep at night
Have a nice sleep:lastqmoonface:😒
 

Stan Judkins

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2018
834
1,441
AFL Club
Richmond
As I have already said, a questionable decision given their list, but not a reach.

Most suggest he is a huge talent, so the insistence he is a reach is pretty silly.
I agree that to claim that a certain player is a reach is folly
Each club has its own list management criteria and sticks to that end
To follow media rankings and the like is ludicrous
 

Joey longshadow

Club Legend
Oct 23, 2015
1,828
4,105
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
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I find Richmond the most interesting draft of everyone, admittedly they can afford to take a risk this year. However on face value their first pick was rated by most in the 30’s and their second and third picks at 44 & 45 they took players that Brisbane didn’t value at pick 59 and they have watched them closely all year.
Brisbane couldn't afford to bid on them without going into deficit after Carlton or essendon bid on a player earlier causing them to burn there picks
 

Richo83

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 2, 2005
19,319
6,865
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
A lot of teams have won without a great ruckman, but it's not cherry picking to point out that some very good rucks have played a big part in teams winning. Brad Ottens was Mr September when it counted. McEvoy and Hale both very underrated. Tom Boyd could've won a Norm and the majority of his good play and marks came in the ruck. None of those guys cost nothing. And are you really going to say that Grundy hasn't been huge for Collingwood?
Interestingly, Ottens, McEvoy and Hale were all traded for and Geelong and Hawthorn sure didn't use pick three to get them. Grundy has been important but even with his stellar play, the midfield which really determine matches let him down.

Yes clearances are overrated. But the thing to note with Richmond is they win clean clearances out the front of stoppages or they force the opposition to bomb it. Jackson's highlights are full of him winning the ball at clearances and taking it forward or laying tackles or pressure to force errors.
He moves well for a ruckman, I just don't think he has the kicking skills or contested skills other midfielders on offer have.

2 of the games best coaches in Chris Scott - with Blicavs and often Luke Bevo with Bont - have used mobile players in the ruck to generate more run and around the ground midfield quality. Luke Jackson won't kick like Bont, I'm not crazy, but he can play like a midfielder at ground level in a similar way to Bont in the ruck and easily do what Blicavs does. A 4th midfielder is a great way to get an elite midfield!
Blicavs is an average ruckman and only really works at AFL level as a key back. As for Bontempelli, he has natural agility, speed, forward nous etc. that Jackson lacks.

Petracca hit the AFL with an ACL reconstruction, but he's slowly been building to become one of the only players in the comp who can get near 20 touches, 10 contested and a goal a game. It's Martin, Dusty, Robbie Gray and then Petracca. I wouldn't bet on him being Dusty but I'll bet on him being a serious footballer as soon as next year. In an awful team he took big steps forward. He's very hard to tackle and whilst his set shots have gone missing he can blast the ball as well as any. Watch and see.
Players who averaged 20+ disposals, 10+ contested possessions and 1+ goal a game in 2019:

Greene
Martin
Gray
Dangerfield

Petracca isn't on this list. And yes, Petracca is a talent, but he's not close to Martin and your midfield is thus not close to Richmond's who are the benchmark.

Brayshaw was awful this season and yes there's a bunch of names not nearly as good as Lambert. But we've got plenty of options. Tomlinson wasn't good in the finals, but hardly a surprise given he was dropped for week 1, asked to ruck a lot week 2 and all on the back of being pushed up by the Coniglio money. If not a Caddy he could be a Kamdyn McIntosh type, serviceable.

And yes you'll admit greater fitness with Prestia has resulted in better skills. That should happen for Oliver, Viney and Brayshaw who all did stuff all preseason last year.

Both Petracca and Oliver have the ability to be super dangerous from the midfield. Oliver's already done it in spurts, he's had games - going down to Geelong in 2018 for example - with 40 touches and 8 inside 50's. Petracca tore the top of the ladder Crows apart in 2017 in one of the only games he's played anywhere near full time midfield. It's time for him to deliver but I think he will.

Certainly Melbourne need at least 1 skilled outside guy and 1 inside/forward running type. But if one emerges from the current fringe group and then we draft or trade 1 next year that's fine by me. Doesn't make the Jackson and Pickett's picks wrong.
It's just weird that you've highlighted a need for outside skill types but then defend the recruitment of a ruckman when your own ruckman is in his peak and is one of the best ruckman in the league. A small forward is a need but drafting small forwards early is really dangerous. Like knightmare has talked about how Kemp is a bad fit for Carlton but he'd be a fantastic fit for a side crying out for some big forward craft.
 

Joey longshadow

Club Legend
Oct 23, 2015
1,828
4,105
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
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Baltimore ravens
It has been mentioned in the media and no I'm not looking it up for you do it yourself.

You drafted a player to play the exact same role with the same skill set in Dow, you can pretend you didn't want Philp if it helps you sleep.
Yep same skill yet it seems we rated Dow higher and you rated Philip higher... Hence why we visited Dow and not Philip.. But if you think your club is as petty minded as you are that it's all about trumping Richmond instead of bettering your own list and trusting the judgement of your recruiters ...and if that helps you sleep at night well have at it then Gilligan
 

Dez!

Hall of Famer
Jul 14, 2007
31,524
22,415
Melbourne, Victoria
AFL Club
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Players who averaged 20+ disposals, 10+ contested possessions and 1+ goal a game in 2019:

Greene
Martin
Gray
Dangerfield

Petracca isn't on this list. And yes, Petracca is a talent, but he's not close to Martin and your midfield is thus not close to Richmond's who are the benchmark.
Petracca averaged 19 disposals, 9.5 contested possessions and a goal a game while playing the majority of his games up forward.

He's a bees dick away from being on that list and is actually becoming incredibly underrated.
 

master bate

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2006
13,377
11,267
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Interestingly, Ottens, McEvoy and Hale were all traded for and Geelong and Hawthorn sure didn't use pick three to get them. Grundy has been important but even with his stellar play, the midfield which really determine matches let him down.
The Hawks gave up pick 18, Shane Savage and moved back from pick 19 to pick 24 for McEvoy. All up that's almost a top 10 picks worth of value.

Ottens was traded for 12 and 16, the points system values that as pick 3, although in reality I'd say it's more pick 5-8.

Darren Jolly was picks 14 and 46.

The idea that every club can go and get a Nankervis for pick 40 something isn't true. Yes, teams have waited until their window but they've paid a decent price for premiership rucks.

No AFL player can win games on their own. Grundy finished top 5 in the coaches votes and is a clear top 10 players to me. The aim of pick 3 is to get that kind of player.
He moves well for a ruckman, I just don't think he has the kicking skills or contested skills other midfielders on offer have.
I think he moves well for any sized player and his contested ball winning looks as good as if not better than most of the mids outside of Green, Robertson, Anderson, Rowell. Clearly kicking is a weakness but kicking doesn't have to be a strength for a contested player. The willingness to go forward and use either foot with vision shows great potential.
Blicavs is an average ruckman and only really works at AFL level as a key back. As for Bontempelli, he has natural agility, speed, forward nous etc. that Jackson lacks.
Scott's desire to move Blicavs in to the ruck to get an extra mid is the point, more than his overall skills as a ruck. For a half it was a move (amongst others) that allowed the Cats to dominate the Tigers.
Players who averaged 20+ disposals, 10+ contested possessions and 1+ goal a game in 2019:

Greene
Martin
Gray
Dangerfield

Petracca isn't on this list. And yes, Petracca is a talent, but he's not close to Martin and your midfield is thus not close to Richmond's who are the benchmark.
I missed Greene. Petracca's at 9.5 contested possessions and 18.7, he's as close as anyone to that group of names and that's playing low midfield minutes in a bad side that needed him at CHF for ball movement. No one matches Dusty on his day - particularly as a deep forward - but at least Melbourne has a player in that range.
It's just weird that you've highlighted a need for outside skill types but then defend the recruitment of a ruckman when your own ruckman is in his peak and is one of the best ruckman in the league. A small forward is a need but drafting small forwards early is really dangerous. Like knightmare has talked about how Kemp is a bad fit for Carlton but he'd be a fantastic fit for a side crying out for some big forward craft.
The point was to highlight that whilst Melbourne needs at least 1 more skilled runner the Richmond midfield is hardly exclusively classy users. The run and overlap - which Melbourne will look to counter/reproduce by actually having a preseason - is a far more important part of the game plan.

Melbourne took 2 skilled running types with their next 2 picks and will have plenty of trade and draft options in the future to keep building that part of the list.

When it comes to a premium pick like pick 3 you have to go for the overall best available and for special abilities not list needs. That's why I'm more than fine with them picking Jackson. And whilst some recruiters preferred Young or Green (or even Ash) I'm quite heartened by the comments of other recruiters who absolutely believe in the upside of Jackson.

There's a lot of signs that he can be a 20+ disposal mid with both clearance and outside linking ability and then can go forward and be a match up problem just on size and movement. If he happens to jump around in the ruck contests whilst doing that then that's cool too.
 

Skull Face

Team Captain
Aug 27, 2019
567
524
Australia
AFL Club
Carlton
Yep same skill yet it seems we rated Dow higher and you rated Philip higher... Hence why we visited Dow and not Philip.. But if you think your club is as petty minded as you are that it's all about trumping Richmond instead of bettering your own list and trusting the judgement of your recruiters ...and if that helps you sleep at night well have at it then Gilligan
I couldn't give a shit who Richmond wanted, maybe ease off on the baseless bullshit next time.
 
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