Review Winners and Losers 2019

Triniboy

Senior List
Sep 26, 2011
285
153
Caribbean
AFL Club
Carlton
Melbourne won the draft/trade period by a country mile. The rest of you can sit here and munch on nuts as long as you like, you will only come up with the second best club of the draft/trade period for 2019.
Draft isn’t a race...many early picks 5 years later haven’t gone on (we both had them)...2023 we’ll know the result.
 

Cobwebs

Team Captain
Oct 21, 2019
380
294
AFL Club
Melbourne
Draft isn’t a race...many early picks 5 years later haven’t gone on (we both had them)...2023 we’ll know the result.
No it is decided within minutes of the trade/draft these days. If your new player is going to succeed you need to have come out in front with the points differential in the clubs favor or you have wasted/lost all chance for the coming season. ;)
 

Pykie

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2006
16,028
31,116
Lord's
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Leeds United
GCS, GWS and Freo nailed it for mine. Then daylight, then prob Syd, Coll, and Adelaide.

GWS two top five players, maybe even top 3. GCS gave away pick 11 next year, but it’s a compromised draft, so that could easily slide to 18. Getting Flanders and Sharp seems a big bonus, so they will be v happy, and are now my second favorite team. Freo is obvious, cards fell beautifully for them. Melb I don't hate, but too many question marks to say they got it right. Syd seems like a v nice balance and great value picks, whilst Port could’ve done better imo. Coll two bargains, still not sure how that happened. Rantall upside seems huge, and Bianco height plus no massive weapons seeing him slide maybe...
North a bit bizarre, and from afar it feels like cash constraints means they can’t afford an a grade football dept. sad to watch. Plus if Kemp doesn’t recover from his knee, it could be a bust for Carlton. Hope he does though... confident and talented kid.
Lol what?

We are far from the poorest side in the league.
 

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PenAndPaperJosh

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2011
4,514
4,882
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Here's how I rank the draft hauls from what I've seen of the players. Admittedly there were a few that I haven't seen anything of so basically just gauged it on the players I knew & then from what I've read on the others.


Gold Coast
Fremantle
Port
Sydney
Adelaide
GWS
Geelong
Hawks
Brisbane
Melbourne
Carlton
Richmond
Essendon
Bulldogs
Collingwood
North
West Coast/Saints
 

Richo83

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 2, 2005
19,320
6,867
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
How's that gone for GWS and Geelong? Two teams right in their windows and they can't find the right ruck. Cats have tried Stanley, Smith, Abbott all without luck. GWS have mixed in Dawson Simpson, Lobb, Keeffe and bough Mumford out of retirement before now turning to Jacobs. There's not always a Nankervis available. Sydney had a massive glut and he was out of contract at the right time. It won't always work like that for every team.
Yeah and the giants made the grand final with Mumford. Geelong have cycled through ruckmen yet still manage to finish in the top four year after year.

Viney and Oliver are as quick over a few steps as anyone - both in attack and to tackle. Petracca needs to add it both ways but he has excellent explosion with the ball. Langdon will bring the outside pace. Harmes can run with anyone. Once again, there's certainly room for one or two more and I have my doubts on Brayshaw but otherwise it's fitness and coaching to keep space and balance around the ball and execute with skills.
Viney isn't quick. Oliver is quick but plays a role where he doesn't get to show off his speed as much as he could. As for guys like Langdon, Harmes and others, they're not a patch on the midfield talent on offer at the top end up the draft.

I'd argue the Tigers forwards and backs are the real speed until the second halves when games open up and the midfields fitness starts creating run. I'm not sure the Tigers have an inside mid with the true top end pace like Treloar - who's a heck of a player but who rarely does much damage until later in games.
Martin is as quick as Treloar. Guys like Edwards and Cotchin are quick.

More like than either of those is Pickett becomes the next Dan Rioli. Are you going to tell me he's not a good player and a good pick up and Melbourne didn't need a Dan Rioli type?
Rioli hasn't played a good game since the 2017 preliminary final against GWS. He does a lot of nice things that don't get counted on stat sheets, but he's yet to play a full game in two years and is still really inconsistent in a way that say Bolton, who can play midfield isn't. So no, I wouldn't. In fact, if I were Melbourne, I'd rather draft someone like Gresham, who was picked later given his midfield and forward capacity. Someone like Burton would be handy too. And there were players on offer who fit that profile.

And for the record, Rioli wasn't drafted by a side on the bottom of the ladder, but by a side which had finished 5th and lacked any small forwards. They had more pieces in place. Nevertheless, Rioli has often been in Richmond's bottom six in the past year and he has been, to an extent, carried by others.

There was one Whitfield/Gaff type in the first round of this draft - Dylan Stephens. And I would've considered him with pick 3 and absolutely taken him with pick 12 but he's not am amazing contested ball winner, not supreme pace and doesn't absolutely lace the kicks. He's more Gaff than Whitfield I think, which isn't a knock. If he's not best available you can't reach at pick 3 and he didn't last until Melbourne's next pick.
He doesn't need to be. Like I get that people worry that Stephens will turn into the next Aish, but my fear is that Jackson will be wasted by a side which a) doesn't really need him and b) needs other things more.

Averaged 19 disposals in the WAFL colts. 22 disposals in his last 4 games after the champs.

15 disposals (11 contested), 5 clearances - despite winning 37 hit outs often down the throat of his mids who cleared the ball for him. Fraser had amazing skills for a ruck. Kreuzer crashes in at ground level really well - for a ruck. Grundy actually contributes like a midfielder and that's how they talk about Jackson.

Either he's a good pick for any team or he's not a good pick. In a couple of years Gawn will be 30 and to extend his career he'll need a partner taking the share. Dean Cox was a year younger than Gawn when Nic Nat was drafted.

Best available for what they'll do for 15 years not drafting for needs for the next 2 years.
How many ruckmen average 20+ disposals in the modern era? Gawn doesn't. Grundy does but that's best of the best case scenario. Grundy was also a much better prospect at the same age as Jackson as well and was noted for his ability to read the play.
 
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Dragonfire

Senior List
Oct 5, 2004
171
416
Hell
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Tigers
All clubs including Richmond trade up if there is a player they know another club is interested in and want to beat them to the punch.
Its common knowledge Richmond were in to Philp so I would think that was smart trading...wouldn't you?
if It’s common knowledge how come no one other than Carlton Supporters desperate to beat Richmond at anything have heard about it.

I”ve heard the direct opposite that we were never interested in Philp at 21 because he is the worst kick in the draft pool
 

Nuwanda

All Australian
Nov 21, 2018
957
1,088
AFL Club
Collingwood
Here's how I rank the draft hauls from what I've seen of the players. Admittedly there were a few that I haven't seen anything of so basically just gauged it on the players I knew & then from what I've read on the others.


Gold Coast
Fremantle
Port
Sydney
Adelaide
GWS
Geelong
Hawks
Brisbane
Melbourne
Carlton
Richmond
Essendon
Bulldogs
Collingwood
North
West Coast/Saints
Thankyou for your thoughts. Great analysis.
 

Monkey King

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 31, 2007
25,048
10,947
In N Out
AFL Club
Carlton
Ho hum. The fact is that Carlton traded up ahead of Richmond to make sure we got him; I couldn't give a stuff if Richmond were in to him or not.
Exactly. Whether Richmond were actually going to select Philps or not doesn’t matter. Carlton took a pick that wasn’t going used to trade up and secure the player they wanted. When it costs you nothing, why risk it?
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,485
AFL Club
West Coast
I really liked Sydney's first three picks. Their first two especially were real favourites of mine in this draft.

I thought Gold Coast's trade of 11 for 27 was the single worst decision of the whole off-season.
 

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Turboman1994

Club Legend
Jul 24, 2013
1,874
2,487
AFL Club
West Coast
Personal thoughts based off nothing but my opinion.
GCS: Rowell, Anderson, Flanders and Sharp absolutely smashed it wouldn’t be surprised if these kids are all in the top 7 players for GCS within 5 years A+
Fremantle: Young, Serong, Henry, Pina are the ones I know off excellent haul
The Hawks gave up pick 18, Shane Savage and moved back from pick 19 to pick 24 for McEvoy. All up that's almost a top 10 picks worth of value.

Ottens was traded for 12 and 16, the points system values that as pick 3, although in reality I'd say it's more pick 5-8.

Darren Jolly was picks 14 and 46.

The idea that every club can go and get a Nankervis for pick 40 something isn't true. Yes, teams have waited until their window but they've paid a decent price for premiership rucks.

No AFL player can win games on their own. Grundy finished top 5 in the coaches votes and is a clear top 10 players to me. The aim of pick 3 is to get that kind of player.

I think he moves well for any sized player and his contested ball winning looks as good as if not better than most of the mids outside of Green, Robertson, Anderson, Rowell. Clearly kicking is a weakness but kicking doesn't have to be a strength for a contested player. The willingness to go forward and use either foot with vision shows great potential.

Scott's desire to move Blicavs in to the ruck to get an extra mid is the point, more than his overall skills as a ruck. For a half it was a move (amongst others) that allowed the Cats to dominate the Tigers.

I missed Greene. Petracca's at 9.5 contested possessions and 18.7, he's as close as anyone to that group of names and that's playing low midfield minutes in a bad side that needed him at CHF for ball movement. No one matches Dusty on his day - particularly as a deep forward - but at least Melbourne has a player in that range.

The point was to highlight that whilst Melbourne needs at least 1 more skilled runner the Richmond midfield is hardly exclusively classy users. The run and overlap - which Melbourne will look to counter/reproduce by actually having a preseason - is a far more important part of the game plan.

Melbourne took 2 skilled running types with their next 2 picks and will have plenty of trade and draft options in the future to keep building that part of the list.

When it comes to a premium pick like pick 3 you have to go for the overall best available and for special abilities not list needs. That's why I'm more than fine with them picking Jackson. And whilst some recruiters preferred Young or Green (or even Ash) I'm quite heartened by the comments of other recruiters who absolutely believe in the upside of Jackson.

There's a lot of signs that he can be a 20+ disposal mid with both clearance and outside linking ability and then can go forward and be a match up problem just on size and movement. If he happens to jump around in the ruck contests whilst doing that then that's cool too.
Jackson is Brilliant I’ve watched him on a few occasions and I think long term he will pay off in spades I just personally feel from a needs perspective that young gives you a greater chance of going for a flag in the next 2-3 years
 

Dragonfire

Senior List
Oct 5, 2004
171
416
Hell
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Richmond
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Tigers
I really liked Sydney's first three picks. Their first two especially were real favourites of mine in this draft.

I thought Gold Coast's trade of 11 for 27 was the single worst decision of the whole off-season.
Pick 11 will turn into pick 18-20 next year after bids. In a weaker draft it’s about even
 

TheKITC

Club Legend
Mar 7, 2009
1,905
1,780
The Cupboard
AFL Club
Carlton
At this very early stage, where it is nearly impossible to tell.. IMO Melbourne had a bad one with what they had.

I think Jackson is a huge reach and risk at 3. Pickett is much the same at 12. To use picks they did on these types of players doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me and I think they would have been better served with others available or using a different trading/drafting strategy.

Obviously GC had a great hand, but really showed some balls and loaded up on what they think will set them up. Good for them, they gave up overs all over the place to get it done though.

I'm really happy with what Carlton were able to achieve, spot on from SOS and co.

Also, think Sydney picked very well, would not be shocked at all to be back here in 5 years saying they came out of this draft with an A++.
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,485
AFL Club
West Coast
Pick 11 will turn into pick 18-20 next year after bids. In a weaker draft it’s about even
It might only be 15 if a couple of top prospects fall down the order. I just think the chances of the 27th ranked player being better than a pick in the teens is low. I feel like they prioritised recruiting now over maximising their chances of recruiting the better long term prospect.
 

Scotland

TheBrownDog
May 5, 2006
53,102
56,434
AFL Club
West Coast
Gold Coast took a consensus 1 and 2 then a guy some tipped to be top 5 at 11. That's a win in anyone's book, but when you are dealt pocket aces you shouldn't fu** that up.

Freo and GWS were both winners because they used their top 10 picks and got their academy players. Melbourne bidding on Green or Sydney/Adelaide on Henry would've f’ed things up for GWS and Freo respectively.

Carlton definitely brought the most entertainment, trading down pick 4 (last year when it was unknown) and then bidding on Henry and Green with 9 before trading down to 17.

Geelong I thought had a win using two late first round picks and consolidating for next year. Gold Coast pick 11 trade was interesting but gives Geelong 3 first rounders next year which is potentially 3-5,000 points in a bid frenzy.

As for the rest who knows? A lot of talk about Robertson and Sharp and Maginness and all went in the 20s so their teams would be happy with that. We used pick 49 and 58 so if we get anything out this draft I'll call that a win.
 

Thetrader15

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2015
14,263
15,563
AFL Club
Adelaide
At this very early stage, where it is nearly impossible to tell.. IMO Melbourne had a bad one with what they had.

I think Jackson is a huge reach and risk at 3. Pickett is much the same at 12. To use picks they did on these types of players doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me and I think they would have been better served with others available or using a different trading/drafting strategy.

Obviously GC had a great hand, but really showed some balls and loaded up on what they think will set them up. Good for them, they gave up overs all over the place to get it done though.

I'm really happy with what Carlton were able to achieve, spot on from SOS and co.

Also, think Sydney picked very well, would not be shocked at all to be back here in 5 years saying they came out of this draft with an A++.
I agree. Flanders at 11 was GC's best pick.

Kemp at 17 was a steal, so well done to Carlton with this one.

I think Worrell at 28 was also a steal...not quite as much as Bianco and Rantell in the 40s though. The 'go home factor' was at play here
 

GWS Goose

Debutant
Nov 14, 2011
61
67
Breakfast Point
AFL Club
GWS
I really liked Sydney's first three picks. Their first two especially were real favourites of mine in this draft.

I thought Gold Coast's trade of 11 for 27 was the single worst decision of the whole off-season.
They didn't trade next year's 11 for 27, they traded it for Sharp specifically. It is not the same thing.
They rate the player as worthy of next year's 11 which is fair enough.
They also bring forward the development bringing another player into this crop rather than a player being a year younger.
It is not as terrible as people are making out
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,485
AFL Club
West Coast
They didn't trade next year's 11 for 27, they traded it for Sharp specifically. It is not the same thing.
They rate the player as worthy of next year's 11 which is fair enough.
They also bring forward the development bringing another player into this crop rather than a player being a year younger.
It is not as terrible as people are making out
The crowd collectively ranked him as the 27th best player. While GC may have ranked him higher, what are the odds that you get a better player available at 27 than 15*? Really low. They could get number 10 on their board next year at pick 15.

I get that they get a player a year earlier, but that means that they lose them a year earlier (at the end of their career). I don’t really buy the argument that bringing a player in this year is any better or worse than bringing a player in next year. If you think short-term it costs you long-term.

The trade might pay off but history tells us that the odds are stacked against Gold Coast.

*if 11 slides out to 15
 
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