Review Winners and Losers 2019

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Brownlow Medallist
Jun 8, 2008
11,221
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Are you even being serious? Richmond fans conveniently the only ones 'reporting' their club rated a player or players higher than the player took before them, who both times happened to have a team trade up to that very pick prior... Riiiiiight.

Why is it so difficult for some posters to accept that their club was gazumped in these instances? Happens all the time in the draft probably. For every clever game of poker to land both Franklin and Roughead there is probably 10 or so cases where a player was picked slightly before team x thought they would and hence team y gets their man. It's actually ok, it happens...



"A number of clubs saying the day after the draft that they had him inside their 20. So as much as we thought it might have been a little bit of push up the order from where we expected, to AFL clubs, rival clubs and rival recruiters it wasn't too much of a jump." - Callum Twomey on Philp.

Chris Doerre (ESPN) or Knightmare in these parts, had him going at 24 (including 2 bids he expected that never came, so pick 22). He has since confirmed that Richmond were heavily into Philp, as were Brisbane.

The fact that the Tigers 'reached' for a Philp Lite if you like at their very next pick in Dow, speaks volume.

What the hell is a 'draft central'?



You posting the above and then being the one to ask for proof is actually comical and leads me to think you may actually be taking the piss. Not sure but...
Did you just reference Knightmare but ask what a Draft Central was in the same post ๐Ÿคฆโ€โ™‚๏ธ
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,233
23,496
AFL Club
West Coast
If everyone else had Philp rated 30-45 but Carlton picks him at 20, that means 'the clubs' rate him as the 20th best player.
I don't think so.
As I said in a previous post, if you fed data from previous drafts that showed the average best player available on a teams board for each pick, you could work out the average player youโ€™d get with each pick. Eg it might be that on average a teams 14th choice is available at pick 18, or a teams 20tg choice is available at 30.

Thatโ€™s how youโ€™d actually do it based on data. If a player is available who is rated higher than the expected future player at the expected future pick, you try to do the trade.
 

Mt Isa Mustang

Team Captain
Nov 23, 2019
525
640
AFL Club
Gold Coast
As I said in a previous post, if you fed data from previous drafts that showed the average best player available on a teams board for each pick, you could work out the average player youโ€™d get with each pick. Eg it might be that on average a teams 14th choice is available at pick 18, or a teams 20tg choice is available at 30.

Thatโ€™s how youโ€™d actually do it based on data. If a player is available who is rated higher than the expected future player at the expected future pick, you try to do the trade.
If you are using a median rather than a mean I think that scenario is pretty damn unlikely. Eliminating those extreme outliers.
 

Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
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How can you have an extreme outlier? If you have pick 20 you will have someone ranked 1-20 on your board available, most likely 10th-17th.
Just like Tim Kelly ? Eagles think he still available after Geelong pick in 2017 draft . Now paying two first round and one second Rd. If I am not mistaken that second Rd is pick 27. A year can push a player price up, but future pick won't.
 

briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 28, 2015
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Have poored over our drafting for the last few days and looking back it's been a decent enough result for us.

Harrison Jones - Long term KPF, post Joe could be the one to take us forward. Not sure he will be ready in time but the ceiling for this bloke is high enough. We've been short on KPF's for some time so he is certainly one for us to get excited about.

Nick Bryan - Second best ruckmen in this years draft pool, as we've noted at Essendon, he was the bloke serving Rowell, Anderson and co at Metro and Oakleigh. e wanted a young ruck, especially with our 21 highly regard ruck Sam Draper on the mend from an ACL and no guarantees to make it back to what was projected to be his best.


Ned Cahill - One of the better small forwards in this years crop. Almost 1.5 goals a game is a decent enough return in a poor Vic Country side. Has endurance and scope to push up the field is a big positive in todays game. With question marks over Fantasia and Mosquito, we needed some extra depth here.

Lachlan Johnson - The most intriguing one for mine. Why did we pick up a bloke we've instantly placed on the inactive list? 2 - for - 1 is all I can think of. Gives us an opportunity to replace him and rehab LJ under our watch having seen him most of the year in our NGA.

Mitch Hibberd - Gives us instant depth in the midfield, could even play round 1. A great story for this former North Melbourne second round selection. A big body (191cm is huge for us lol) so definitely interested to see when he gets his opportunity.

We still have two spots open on our list for the SPP period, one sounds like we'll select Jacob Townsend, the other? Hopefully on moe midfield depth like a Daniel Mott. We wanted to move up to pick 23 to get Dev Robertson it sounded like but Port Adelaide/Brisbane were not interested, could see AD snuffing at the thought of overpaying like Brisbane did but we'd need to to get above Brisbane's trade proposal.

The two guys I was disappointed to miss out on were Jake Riccardi who I've been a huge advocate for all year. Once we picked Jones, it was unlikely we take Riccardi. The other was Jay Rantall who was available at our 3rd selection (pick 38) whom went two spots later (pick 40) to Collingwood.

Anyways, some interesting choices and a big need (big bodied mid) somewhat filled by a role player (Mitch Hibberd). Still, a few talented guys into our football club to get excited about and a couple of places still to be filled possibly.
Vic Country was poor? Huh, they were 75 seconds away from winning the U18 Championships and going undefeated.
 

Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
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Iโ€™m talking about where a club ranked them on draft night. The cats probably rated him late teens?
GCS probably rated Sharp pick 20, but want Flanders badly. I don't get why GC can overpaid Eagles and Brisbane and not Geelong . Geelong actually overpaid a 33 years old to get ablett back, so far Eagles and Brisbane gave nothing back to GCS compare to Geelong in term draft pick.
 
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briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 28, 2015
9,428
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Are you even being serious? Richmond fans conveniently the only ones 'reporting' their club rated a player or players higher than the player took before them, who both times happened to have a team trade up to that very pick prior... Riiiiiight.

Why is it so difficult for some posters to accept that their club was gazumped in these instances? Happens all the time in the draft probably. For every clever game of poker to land both Franklin and Roughead there is probably 10 or so cases where a player was picked slightly before team x thought they would and hence team y gets their man. It's actually ok, it happens...



"A number of clubs saying the day after the draft that they had him inside their 20. So as much as we thought it might have been a little bit of push up the order from where we expected, to AFL clubs, rival clubs and rival recruiters it wasn't too much of a jump." - Callum Twomey on Philp.

Chris Doerre (ESPN) or Knightmare in these parts, had him going at 24 (including 2 bids he expected that never came, so pick 22). He has since confirmed that Richmond were heavily into Philp, as were Brisbane.

The fact that the Tigers 'reached' for a Philp Lite if you like at their very next pick in Dow, speaks volume.

What the hell is a 'draft central'?



You posting the above and then being the one to ask for proof is actually comical and leads me to think you may actually be taking the piss. Not sure but...
Brisbane rated Ely Smith higher than both Stocker and RCD last year.

Our draft board went Duursma then Ely Smith.

And thatโ€™s from our recruiters at our draft function last year, during the draft, before any of those players were drafted.

We might have had an interest in Philp this year, but he was behind both Robertson and Trent Rivers.
 

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GoTigers2015

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Oct 27, 2014
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Carlton drinking their own bath water again. The tigers rated other players higher than Philp

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GoTigers2015

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Oct 27, 2014
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Word is Richmond were big on him. CD had him at 28 and Knightmare had him at 24. They ended up with Dow who is a similar prospect.

Most explosive player in the draft pool and had a massive 2nd half of the year in the TAC Cup.

Also some nice good will with Port who needed the points. We werenโ€™t using that pick anyway.
The word from Carlton, all spin no substance.
 

Davo-27

Premiership Player
Sep 9, 2006
4,322
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from my PoV

Adelaide - McAsey, Schoenberg, Worrell, O'Connor, Gollant (rookie) Keays, Crocker - good draft haul with only Gollant a question mark B+
Brisbane - Robertson, B.Smith, K.Coleman, Prior (rookie) 3 re-draftings - made use of all 4 picks A
Carlton - Kemp, Philp, Ramsay (rookie)Honey Phillips - Kemp and Ramsay good, but the rest is meh and 20 on Philp is bad imo C-
Collingwood - Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe - big winners, great draft haul for the picks they had, A+
Essendon - Jones, Bryan, Cahill, L.Johnson (rookie) Hibberd - 3rd/4th best ruck, over-hyped Jones, Cahill a good pick and L.Johnson lucky to be drafted B-
Fremantle - Young, Serong, Henry, Fredericks (rookie) Pina + redrafts, cat b rookies - the picks they had, they couldnt lose, even a good rookie A+
Geelong - C.Stephens, De Koning, Evans, Taheny (rookie) Close + redrafts - good value, but nothing that is super impressive, but also no mistakes B+
Gold Coast - Rowell, Anderson, Flanders, Sharp, Farrar (rookie) redraft and 3 pre-listed rookies - unbelievable haul in draft and 3 high end rookies as well A++
GWS - Ash, Green, Riccardi, Hutchesson (rookie) redrafts - Ash is one of my favs, Green good talent, Riccardi a good option, not sure on Hutchesson A-
Hawthorn - Day, Maginnes, Morris (rookie) Jeka + Pepper cat b - Day, Maginness and Pepper good pick ups, Morris and Jeka not so much B+
Melbourne - L.Jackson, Pickett, Rivers - really good draft haul, 3 quality players in A+
North Melb - Comben, Mahony, Perez (rookie) McGuinness catb - quality players for their position in the draft B+
Port Adel - Bergman, Georgiades, D.Williams, Mead (rookie) Pasini, T.Burgoyne + redrafts - i like all their pickups, Bergman went a bit too early for me B+
Richmond - Dow, Cumberland, Martyn, Ralphsmith, Nyuon - Dow is good but went too early, Cumberland is ok, the rest not a fan of D-
St Kilda - Byrnes, Connolly (rookie) Bell - Byrnes is good value here, Connolly i liked at Gipps, Bell is a bad pick imo B-
Sydney - D.Stephens, Gould, Taylor, Warner (rookie) Rowles - interesting group of players B+
WCE - Jamieson, B.Johnson (rookie) Treacy, O'Neill - decent pick ups, but a bit uninspiring which is to be expected coming in so late C
Western - Weightman, Butler, Garcia - Weightman went a bit early imo, Butler is average, Garcia is good imo B-

best - GCS, Frem, Coll, Melb, Bris, GWS
worst - WCE, Carl, Rich
 
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Mofra

Moderator
Dec 6, 2005
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^ fair effort, although personally I rate Sydney's haul much much higher. Elijah Taylor is one of the most talented kids in the pool so could be anything, and Gould has 200+ gamer stamped all over him. That's on top of Stevens who is a brilliant prospect. I'd have them somewhere between A and A+

FWIW Bergman was rated above Weightman for the Bulldogs recruiters so Port didn't reach, he wouldn't have been there in the late teens.
 

Davo-27

Premiership Player
Sep 9, 2006
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^ fair effort, although personally I rate Sydney's haul much much higher. Elijah Taylor is one of the most talented kids in the pool so could be anything, and Gould has 200+ gamer stamped all over him. That's on top of Stevens who is a brilliant prospect. I'd have them somewhere between A and A+

FWIW Bergman was rated above Weightman for the Bulldogs recruiters so Port didn't reach, he wouldn't have been there in the late teens.
as for Sydney, i really like Gould and Taylor, i think both will be AFL players, D.Stephens i like but i have small nagging doubts from what i saw from him at the champs, but if he plays like he showed in bursts in the SANFL this year, he could be exciting, i just have small doubts that wont go away, as for Warner and Rowles they were below average pick ups imo, bringing their score down to a B+, thats my reasoning.

when i say they went early, i mean they went like 10 or so picks earlier than their rating which isnt the worst thing in the world but affects the rating slightly for me.
 
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The Filth Wizard

These Meats Are Spoiled
Jul 26, 2007
66,292
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from my PoV

Adelaide - McAsey, Schoenberg, Worrell, O'Connor, Gollant (rookie) Keays, Crocker - good draft haul with only Gollant a question mark B+
Brisbane - Robertson, B.Smith, K.Coleman, Prior (rookie) 3 re-draftings - made use of all 4 picks A
Carlton - Kemp, Philp, Ramsay (rookie)Honey Phillips - Kemp and Ramsay good, but the rest is meh and 20 on Philp is bad imo C-
Collingwood - Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe - big winners, great draft haul for the picks they had, A+
Essendon - Jones, Bryan, Cahill, L.Johnson (rookie) Hibberd - 3rd/4th best ruck, over-hyped Jones, Cahill a good pick and L.Johnson lucky to be drafted B-
Fremantle - Young, Serong, Henry, Fredericks (rookie) Pina + redrafts, cat b rookies - the picks they had, they couldnt lose, even a good rookie A+
Geelong - C.Stephens, De Koning, Evans, Taheny (rookie) Close + redrafts - good value, but nothing that is super impressive, but also no mistakes B+
Gold Coast - Rowell, Anderson, Flanders, Sharp, Farrar (rookie) redraft and 3 pre-listed rookies - unbelievable haul in draft and 3 high end rookies as well A++
GWS - Ash, Green, Riccardi, Hutchesson (rookie) redrafts - Ash is one of my favs, Green good talent, Riccardi a good option, not sure on Hutchesson A-
Hawthorn - Day, Maginnes, Morris (rookie) Jeka + Pepper cat b - Day, Maginness and Pepper good pick ups, Morris and Jeka not so much B+
Melbourne - L.Jackson, Pickett, Rivers - really good draft haul, 3 quality players in A+
North Melb - Comben, Mahony, Perez (rookie) McGuinness catb - quality players for their position in the draft B+
Port Adel - Bergman, Georgiades, D.Williams, Mead (rookie) Pasini, T.Burgoyne + redrafts - i like all their pickups, Bergman went a bit too early for me B+
Richmond - Dow, Cumberland, Martyn, Ralphsmith, Nyuon - Dow is good but went too early, Cumberland is ok, the rest not a fan of D-
St Kilda - Byrnes, Connolly (rookie) Bell - Byrnes is good value here, Connolly i liked at Gipps, Bell is a bad pick imo B-
Sydney - D.Stephens, Gould, Taylor, Warner (rookie) Rowles - interesting group of players B+
WCE - Jamieson, B.Johnson (rookie) Treacy, O'Neill - decent pick ups, but a bit uninspiring which is to be expected coming in so late C
Western - Weightman, Butler, Garcia - Weightman went a bit early imo, Butler is average, Garcia is good imo B-

best - GCS, Frem, Coll, Melb, Bris, GWS
worst - WCE, Carl, Rich
I appreciate your view on the North draft... our forum in particular fell victim to the outrage at "not having heard of these kids in favour of kids that they'd only just heard of a few weeks ago". Seems people are feeling better about it now and that we drafted well for our own needs. All four look like good additions and I'm really bullish on Mahony who looks like the strong small forward we've been dying for and Perez already looks like he's gaining some fans.
 

eastfreo75

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
8,380
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This is my point though. Ruckmen are players you can easily trade for when the need arises. They're a plentiful commodity which can and should be replaced when the other ruckman retires. What would make sense for me is for Melbourne to keep building their midfield and then trade/recruit through free agency a ruckman when Gawn is showing signs of declining.

And these trade figures prove my point. Jolly for picks 14 and 46 is nowhere close to pick 3. Savage isn't much, and a pick downgrade in the second round and a loss of pick 18 isn't equivalent to pick 3. Ottens was contracted so Richmond had some bargaining power. Here, you can pick anyone you want.



Why not? Like seriously, why can't Melbourne pick the eyes out of the ruckman market in say 3-5 years time?



Look, Grundy is a great player, but it's noticeable that even though he dominated hitouts and had a good game against the giants, they lost the contested ball easily, and their forward entries were poor. The giants were able to win because their midfield bats deeper, and they have more skilled players between the arcs.



Look, Jackson's contested work is good, sure. But that's not your side's problem and Gawn is also a really good contested player anyway. He's raw and his skills aren't great. He's not going to provide you with that polish you need.



You're the only one who actually thinks Blicavs on the wing was a good idea. He had no influence on the game, had 10 touches, no hitouts and no influence. He should have been playing on Lynch whose height worried the short Geelong backline. Dumb move.



Petracca is not in Martin's "range" however you put it. Guys like Fyfe and Dangerfield are in his range. Petracca isn't.



Ok sure, but you don't have many quick and skillful midfielders. Your midfield is slow and one-dimensional. Jackson, whose skills are limited and isn't quick doesn't change this. Part of the reason why Richmond work is because they have pressure, because they're fast. And yet for a number of years, Melbourne's midfielders couldn't catch their shadow.



Pickett isn't the outside accumulator you need though. You needed to draft someone like a Gaff or a Whitfield. Instead you drafted Max Gawn and a guy who could be the next Cyril Rioli or the next Sampi.



But has Jackson ever shown an ability to average 20 touches a game? How many big men his height do that? Secondly, he's shown very limited forwardcraft. This idea that Jackson can blossom as a midfielder and forward is odd given he's never played as one. He reminds me of Josh Fraser/Matt Kreuzer in that he's a somewhat undersized ruck who compensates with effort around the ground. He can take a great mark but his feel for the game isn't quite there.

I think Jackson could have been a good pick for another team. He'd work perfectly for a side without a good ruckman who's looking for some height and bulk. Melbourne aren't that side.
Totally agree
 

Elmer_Judd

#Teague2020
Jul 25, 2019
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I appreciate your view on the North draft... our forum in particular fell victim to the outrage at "not having heard of these kids in favour of kids that they'd only just heard of a few weeks ago". Seems people are feeling better about it now and that we drafted well for our own needs. All four look like good additions and I'm really bullish on Mahony who looks like the strong small forward we've been dying for and Perez already looks like he's gaining some fans.
Not sure about the rest of your kids, but I think Comben will be one of the steals of the draft. The melts on your club's draft day(s) thread was pretty funny though such as North recruiting 'Seymour Butts'๐Ÿ˜†

You Shitboners are very passionate about your footy, club, and in many fopty fans cases, passion and emotions can sometimes overrule common sense and rational clarity (Carlton board has been a mess over the fallout of SOS's exit)

Still a bit worried about North's KPD stocks, but a 10-11 win season should be doable for North next year, given a good run of injuries, not sure if you have enough depth yet to give the finals a serious shake, but clearly you guys are building towards it, love your forward line with Sideshow Bob, Zuhaar (who is a legit future star) and Big Larkey.

Bothers me you only have 3 FTA games next season, I honestly think North are one of the rising teams to watch next season, but the AFL and Channel 7 don't care about things like that.
 

The Filth Wizard

These Meats Are Spoiled
Jul 26, 2007
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Still a bit worried about North's KPD stocks,
Yeah, this was my biggest concern during the season because ideally you'd like one of Durdin or McKay to really step up especially to replace Thompson but I think taking Josh Walker as a DFA was smart, Daw looks like he's recovered, Ed Vickers-Willis is injured but not as seriously as first thought and Mason Wood is being re-formatted with some defensive craft. As long as Tarrant stays on the park it's doable.
 

GoTigers2015

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Oct 27, 2014
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You donโ€™t know that.

Beveridge said the information came from Carlton when he did the day 1 video wrap with Cal Twomey. Ran with the info he got from Carlton as fact when he tweeted.


@17:20
 
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Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
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Carlton fans are so weird bunch , before getting Martin Carlton fans said GCS never offer 15 and 20. Now said Richmond want Sam Phiip. Is not hard to know why Geelong and Port reject Carlton pick 9 offer and GCS come back for pick 9 because GCS did offer those pick and Martin for pick 9. Nothing wrong with keeping pick 9 hoping to get Stephen, young or Serong but do said GCS did not offer 15,20 and fabricate Richmond wanting Sam philp just LOL material.
 
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