Analysis - Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition) | Page 14 | BigFooty

Analysis Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition)

Discussion in 'Drafts, Trading & Free Agency' started by raffrox, Nov 22, 2018.

  1. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    ahh see you say that but there's this thing called a thread history where you can see that is blatantly untrue.
    The Gibbs trade thread was full of Carlton fans thinking they had won big time with the pick swaps and how they were going to shoot up the ladder.

    Its all there for you to read.

    Your 2nd pick was virtually a first rounder, which is why you swapped us back for it and took a guy on night 1 of the draft.
     

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  2. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    No the part about you needing to nail a pick later in the draft, when historically you've had trouble nailing the top pick.

    Maybe when its all said and done in 10 years CFC fans will realise that SOS has absolutely no idea what he's doing.
    Not that he's been involved in the previous pick 1 stuff-ups, but literally any deal he does you guys get on your knees and start worshiping when really he's made a meal of it.

    Walsh selected himself for Carlton and FWIW I think he will be a very good player. That said we all thought the same about Wietering and now he's VFL standard.
     
  3. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

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  4. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    Never going to get every pick right as a draft analyser. I mean the actual recruiters only get it right like 60% of the time at best.

    Lets be honest for every Cripps there's a Watts or Wietering. Everyone's stand out to go number 1 including recruiters...yet fast forward and theyre no good.
     
  5. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

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    If Carlton wins 6 games, that would likely be 3rd last.
    If you finished 10th as you supposed is possible, that means the swap will be pick 3 (2019) for 8 (2019) and Liam Stocker.

    Pick 3 could be Chris Judd (big win Adelaide).
    Pick 3 could be also Jack Billings (drafting is an inexact science).

    A lot of water to flow under the bridge before this trade is called a Carlton disaster.
     
  6. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

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    He was talking about Walsh mate. Read his post.

    The irony is that, in reality, recent history shows Carlton batting pretty well at that point in the draft.
     
  7. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

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    My point is that the actual AFL drafters got the 2013 draft far FAR more correct than Knightmare. It is not even close.

    Note, Wietering is not a draft bust as you implied above. He turned 21 last week. Let's revisit the topic when he is 25. At the same stage of his career Alex Rance had player 25 games (compared with Weitering 56). Key position defenders are slow burns. Wietering had a good 2nd half of 2018.
     
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  8. Beer n Skittles

    Beer n Skittles Norm Smith Medallist

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    Adelaide were heavy favourites for the flag while Carlton had just had a shocking year then lost one of their best players. The thread was full of Carlton fans saying we couldn't afford to lose Gibbs or we'd be utterly shambolic.

    I wasn't quoting you to start a stupid argument, it was a sincere post about expectations heading into this year. Leave your trolling for MK, he loves arguing with you types.
     
  9. Big_Birdy

    Big_Birdy Premiership Player

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    Considering the AFL drafters took Boyd (1), Billings (3), Scharenberg (6), Aish (7), McDonald (8), Freeman (10) Lennon (12), Lang (16), Apeness (17) and Dunstan (18) in the first round alone, all too high for their output to date, I think its a stretch to claim they got it far better than KM. Especially when you add players he rated higher than what they were eventually taken in Crouch, Taylor and Merrett.

    The AFL Drafters allowed Bont to slip to 4, Cripps to 13, Crouch to 23, Jake Kolodjasnij to 42, Barrass to 43, Allir Allir to 44, Brown to 47, Fantasia to 55, Sicily to 56, Langdon to 65 and Charlie Cameron (who KM rated in his top 60) and Neville Jetta to the rookie draft. I'm not sure why you pick this year to pump of their tyres against KM.

    I'm not even saying KM is the guru, I just keep seeing you link to that thread and all I see is a pretty solid list of player predictions.
     
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  10. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    "heavy favourites for the flag"
    Uh no we werent, but ok.

    The thread was full of carlton fans thinking they had flogged us in the Gibbs trade because they'd move up the ladder.
    Ones that didnt understand your 2nd round pick was going to be pick 19. Its funny how little value that had to CFC fans when they traded it away (oh its only a 2nd round pick), but somehow gained all this value in 2018 when you wanted it back.
    You can see it, its all there. It's not an argument, just straight facts.

    Anyway what did you genuinely think of the trade in 2018 draft? Face value it seems very risky for CFC
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2018
  11. Nobu

    Nobu Suspended

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    Just because I struck a nerve does not make my comment a troll. How many of your four number one picks have been the best player of their respective drafts? Zero. How many of them have been close to the best? That’s up for debate...

    Marc Murphy has been a good player for Carlton. He was elite for one - maybe two years - but has never quite fulfilled his potential. The players I would’ve selected before him are Dale Thomas, Josh Kennedy, Scott Pendlebury, Patrick Ryder, Shaun Higgins, Shannon Hurn and Nathan Jones. 8th best pick overall.

    I would’ve taken Travis Boak, Joel Selwood, Jack Riewoldt, Ben Reid, Todd Goldstein and Robbie Gray ahead of Bryce Gibbs. 7th best pick overall (did not include Josh Kennedy and Tom Hawkins).

    Kreuzer is a good/average ruckman who has struggled with both consistency and fitness. He’d be behind Trent Cotchin, Patrick Dangerfield, Cyril Rioli, Robbie Tarrant, Harry Taylor, Alex Rance, Callan Ward, Jack Steven, Cale Hooker, Ben McEvoy, Brad Ebert, Scott Thompson, Easton Wood and Taylor Walker. 15th best overall.

    Weitering has struggled at AFL level after looking comfortable in his first year. He’s behind Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parrish, Sam Weideman, Wayne Milera, Charlie Curnow, Daniel Rioli, Tom Doedee, Jade Gresham, Ryan Burton, Brayden Fiorini, Josh Dunkley, Brayden Sier, Riley Bonner, Blake Hardwick, Sam Menegola and Nathan Broad. He’d be around pick 20 overall.

    Your number one picks on average are coming in at around the 12th best player overall. I wouldn’t be happy with that kind of return if I was a Carlton supporter.
     

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  12. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

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    Not playing. Everything I have to say is in the above posts.
     
  13. Nobu

    Nobu Suspended

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    Have only read the posts quoting me. Sorry.
     
  14. Sin City

    Sin City Brownlow Medallist

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    You'd think this troll would've learnt from the egg on his face after the Bryce Gibbs trade.

    Give the chest beating a rest, you're only setting yourself up for further embarrassment.
     
  15. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    The egg on my face?

    You finished last and gave us pick 19 which you then overpaid for this year.

    Double down like SOS all you like but I'm not the only one that thinks you look like idiots after that trade. Its common consensus from anyone not related to CFC
     
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  16. Sin City

    Sin City Brownlow Medallist

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    When you make claims like "B grade hack Gibbs is only worth a second rounder" then your club trades away it's future to get him by coughing up two first round picks, you are left with egg on your face which is clearly the reason you're trolling so much now.

    Just a shame for you that B grader was one of the only Crows players to keep it together as the rest of the club became toxic after that pre-season camp. I'd be very careful trading away future picks after the way your club imploded this year.
     
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  17. rusman

    rusman Club Legend

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    You can go through every team in hind site and look at how they stuffed up.

    Km gives his opinion based on his hours of research and work. Getting something wrong doesn’t make you a hype merchant or bias. It makes you wrong which can be due to a range of factors
     
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  18. Ants

    Ants Club Legend

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    Just focussing on the Gibbs call to make a point. Which is that your argument is flawed. Failing to get the best player out of the draft with pick #1 is not a measure of failing with the pick. With the #1 pick (and other high picks) its a balance between certainty and upside (and needs). I agree that Gibbs is not the best player from 2013, and in hindsight Carlton would have preferred to have selected Selwood or Riewoldt.

    However
    , they took him not because they necessarily thought he would be the best player from the draft. They took him because he was a reasonably sure thing to become an elite midfielder. Which he did. They could have gambled on someone else, and maybe that someone is Selwood or Riewoldt. Of course, it could have been Gumby or Leuy (both cut down by injuries), Hansen (who turned out average) or Thorpe (who turned out an idiot) who were all taken before Selwood.

    There is no way that in hindsight Gibbs can't be considered a complete success as a #1 pick, when you consider that the next 5 picks all failed for various reasons to either make it at all, or be much above average.

    Your argument the #1 pick is a failure if they're not the best player is, frankly, bollocks.
     
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  19. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    Um what? Who made that claim?
    Now you're just making stuff up. I never said that. i was keen to get Gibbs.
    The price was a first round pick, a 10 spot downgrade (in the end) and another later downgrade.

    The price was about right as far as I can see. We didn't get full benefit out of it given our poor finish in 2018.

    Not relevant to this conversation. Do you think CFC were smart to do the pick swap? I know they wanted a particular player, but do you think it was wise?
     
  20. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    And especially seeing as the best people at this job (who have more access and interviews and all sorts of other tools) get about 65-70% right, why do we expect someone who doesnt have all the info available to get it right more than that?
     
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  21. Ian Dunross

    Ian Dunross Premiership Player

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    And we roundly criticise those recruiters who do stuff up.

    Fair play to KM for putting his balls on the line and making a call.

    Based on his track record and what i perceive to be evident biases I don't rate his opinion.
     
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  22. Nobu

    Nobu Suspended

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    I’m talking holistically with regards to Carlton’s four number one draft picks. If you want to dissect the Gibbs pick, I actually believe that Gibbs should’ve been taken as the number one pick that year and it’s a pass for Carlton. I don’t think he has ever been “elite”, although my definition of elite may be more stringent than yours. Development let him down. Not sure if you follow under 18s footy, but he was by far the best player at that level. Would you be happy with the number one pick ending up being the 7th best pick overall? Probably. Anywhere from 1 to 5 is a win in my eyes. 6 to 10 and you’d be reasonably satisfied. If the number one pick isn’t in the top ten from that draft class, it’s a disappointment.

    I’m not potting the Gibbs pick anyway. As I said, I’m viewing their number one picks more holistically. I’ve identified where I see their number one picks falling (on average) in their draft and that’s outside of the top ten (about 12th overall). Yes, Murphy and Gibbs were successful picks, but they let themselves down with Kreuzer and Weitering. Their track record as a whole has therefore been hit and miss.
     
  23. Crow till I die

    Crow till I die Premiership Player

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    Summing up the Gibbs trade to date - w paid 3 x 1st rounders - 10 & 16 and 2019 1st (likely to be a teens pick). Carlton have given us Gibbs and a likely 2019 top 3 pick...+ there were some later pick swaps in there but the main parts were noted above. Seems like a reasonable deal all round

    Edit: The carlton 2018 2nd rounder was a pick 19 w/out Father son / academy players and essentially got that back to get Stocker - so it cancels out and is not included above
     
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  24. Dudersaurus

    Dudersaurus Senior List

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    That's doing my head in. Why include the pick swap this year and next in the Gibbs trade? Pick 19 this year was originally pick 16 then pushed out with academy picks. Our original pick 19 was several picks later.
     
  25. Crow till I die

    Crow till I die Premiership Player

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    It was a quirk that Stocker was drafted at pick 19 so it helps keep it rolling considering carlton gave us a pick 19 and we gave it back to you
     
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