Analysis - Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition) | Page 16 | BigFooty

Analysis Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition)

Discussion in 'Drafts, Trading & Free Agency' started by raffrox, Nov 22, 2018.

  1. bird_man

    bird_man Brownlow Medallist

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    Which is why it worked very well for North.
     

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  2. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    Im agreeing that you didn't overpay, thats what the other poster was saying.
    I dont think you expected a bid that early though (before Blakey especially).
     
  3. Dudersaurus

    Dudersaurus Debutant

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    I think the other poster was saying they over paid for polek and weird hair mo tatt guy. Not so much Thomas.
     
  4. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    Shittard?
     
  5. Pykie

    Pykie Brownlow Medallist

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    He was ranked at 10 by Fox and 19 by CD for his champs statistics. He averaged 97 rankings points per game in the u/18 champs. Not exactly terrible.

    He averaged 186 points per game in the academy series across the 4 games, which was a lot more than both Blakey and Jones, why didn't they then dominate this level as much if it's a walk in the park?

    Thomas produced a 202 pt game in the last game of the series, 25 possessions (20 contested), 5 goal performance in the wet against GWS. (Which Mick Ablett kept going on about)

    Blakey was ranked 61st for his champs by CD, I don't think I've seen any criticism of him.... considering Thomas, Jones and Blakey all went 8,9,10 and played in all of the same series' throughout the year.


    This is from Twomey in May:

    "According to multiple list managers, it’s not inconceivable to suggest he could be taken as high as Pick 2 in November, while he might’ve been taken at Pick 1 if it was a different draft class.

    Thomas produced his best game on the weekend against the Sydney Swans academy, booting 2.2 from 28 disposals, 20 contested possessions, eight intercepts, seven clearances, six inside 50s and a whopping 189 Champion Data ranking points."


    It's an interesting line of thinking.

    Thomas went at #8, Jones went at #9.

    Thomas was clearly the better player in the academy series, Jones shaded his statistics in the u/18 champs where Thomas was required to play a lot at FF.

    Jones had a great year in the TSL in the 6-7 games he played there, a level where Thomas has been playing since he was 15 and is a 2 x senior premiership player.


    If we overpaid, it goes without saying Adelaide certainly did as well......
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
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  6. Ants

    Ants Club Legend

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    I often wonder with Sydney and Adelaide who on the face appear to have had brilliant success with recruiting with poorer picks, if its really just the development teams. Like you add anyone taken around the same picks by other sides and swap them with who Adelaide got, do they turn into decent or better AFL players because the development team is just that good?

    Really makes rating recruiters hard.
     
  7. Big_Birdy

    Big_Birdy Premiership Player

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    When you say he did alright, he didn't make his teams best once or kick a single goal.
    Maybe Blakey is overated. Dunno. Not saying Thomas will be a dud, I wouldn't have a clue.

    Just saying, if his "hype" or whatever is based on a second tier comp performance and Champion Data stats (which has a poor track record of being a good indicator of anything) then I'm not that surprised he isn't highly rated by some. What recruiters said about him before the big dance (the champs) is irrelevant. Clearly his performance made his rating go down as he wasn't bid on in the top 2.

    I think that it's silly to hold a grudge (not you) against a poster because they don't rate the player you happened to pick as highly as you hope he will be, especially when it's being based on some fairly obvious cherry picking of performance indicators/ratings to say he is going to be a gun without question based on the justification I've been given.
     
  8. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

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    Different pick. You really stuggle unpacking these trades.
     
  9. Pykie

    Pykie Brownlow Medallist

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    So analytical stats are poor, but you are basing your assessment purely on weather he kicked a goal or was named in his coaches best 5 players in?

    North supporters aren't trying to overhype him, he was selected probably where he deserved to go, we are merely responding to these reach claims by most that would never have seen him play.

    He averaged a better CD rating in the u/18 champs in 2018 than all of Dow, LDU, Cerra, Stephenson, Clark, O'Brien and Coffield did last year.
     
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  10. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    OK yeh it was 3 picks different.
    You overpaid. If i struggle to unpack them you sure struggle to look at them without your navy blue glasses on.

    What does it take every expert to say how risky and seemingly stupid it is? well they pretty much have.

    I remember you telling me how the blues were going to shoot up the ladder with the natural progression of your young players.
    Didnt quite work out did it?
     
  11. Jeremias

    Jeremias Moderator

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    Which "experts" have said it is stupid?
     

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  12. Dudersaurus

    Dudersaurus Debutant

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    Nobody's has flat out said stupid.

    Very courageous decision minister.
     
  13. Big_Birdy

    Big_Birdy Premiership Player

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    No I said Champion Data stats are a poor indicator. Did you read the ratings they just released?

    I haven't assessed him at all actually, I was merely responding to posters being upset at KM for not rating Walsh, and then a North poster coming in and justifying him being a poor judge of talent due to not rating Thomas as highly as he thinks he should be, even though Thomas is yet to play a game of AFL and plenty of top picks being disappointing once they actually get to the big league. I asked why it is so egregious to not rate him as a top pick and have only been provided with performance in a second tier comp and his champion data ratings. So forgive me if I don't jump in on the KM tar a feathering based on this rating. Doesn't mean he wont end up being a star, I genuinely would not have a clue. But their appears to be at least some justification to not rating him as highly as he was selected at this point in time, even if that turns out to be a poor indicator of his ability in hindsight.
     
  14. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

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    Yes. Not the same pick. These trades aren’t terribly complicated, not sure why you fluff them up.

    You hope we overpaid, fair enough. I would too if I was a Crows supporter.

    Given you’re not the most accurate of posters, rather than claim I said something, just quote me.
     
  15. Pykie

    Pykie Brownlow Medallist

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    Did you?

    They aren't a retrospective rating like the ones from the champs that are purely a statistical rating, like the ones used for the AFL player ratings systems that is developed by CD analytics.

    The ratings released today are their prediction for players in the 2019 season.

    Unless you think Nic Naitanui was the 4th best ruckman this year playing from the stands?


    As for KM, he's a paid journalist, he's open to criticism and critique.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  16. Crow till I die

    Crow till I die Premiership Player

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    There was no overpaying imo as Haggis is just about the best in the business and he placed the bid at 8 on Thomas so rated him the best available at pick 8. When it was rightly matched, we then too Jones who also looks a super talent
     
  17. DangerSloane

    DangerSloane Hall of Famer

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    They're not terribly complicated but SOS continues to struggle. Remember when he thought a 2nd round pick was going the wrong direction and slammed his laptop and walked out. If your list manager cant understand them... well...

    I love that we get to death ride you again and likely get 2 and 20 next year.

    I'm not going back through 300 pages of Gibbs thread to find it, but I notice you didn't even try to say you didn't.
    So where next year? You making the 8?
     
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  18. Big_Birdy

    Big_Birdy Premiership Player

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    Nic Nat played 15 games, hardly spent the entire year on the stands. So their prediction is for him to be the 4th best ruckman next year even though he may not play a game? I would imagine their predictions are based on past performance and averages. The fact that West Coast were rated 12th last year regarding CD and 11th this year for the predicted, means that I would assume their CD scores didnt change much over 2018. Yet they won the flag, just makes me think CD may be a poor indicator of actual impact on games. Or West Coast could be an anomaly.

    It's not really a relevant argument anyway. You can think CD is the best indicator, nothing wrong with that. Perhaps it is. Doesn't mean it isn't a cherry picked stat.

    Now if Thomas was getting the same CD ratings, as well as 25 touches, a goal a game and winning medals I would probably agree it seems odd to have him rated in the 40s.

    I just find it odd for people to get defensive on players they have selected who haven't even played a game yet.
     
  19. McCraeBF

    McCraeBF All Australian

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    Ok to be diplomatic is in the eye of the beholder...

    In those games you talk off West played forward to manage his work load.. :)

    Bytel is a good footballer but has massive issues with his body -and AFL doesn't get ant easier..
    Check out afl site re Kings -Khamis standing next to him and I saw him yesterday im 6,2 and he towers over me..

    Ely Smith Vanilla ...good athlete,Tom Berry I saw many times this year if he didn't have a brother would not had been picked up..

    Tom Joyce I have seen a lot off development stalled like his height..Noah is a great kid but again no special skill.

    Enjoy Hamill
     
  20. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

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    Lol. Struggle. You can’t even figure out the details of SOS’s trades FFS.

    Well I can’t prove I didn’t say something. For all I know you’ve mistaken a voice in your head with something I’ve posted. Or you’re totally rewording and misrepresenting. Put up or ...
     
  21. McCraeBF

    McCraeBF All Australian

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    Pick 19
     
  22. Bicks

    Bicks Premium Platinum

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    Bullshit West largely played on the ball every time I've seen him play both this year and last.....if he wasn't Scott West's son he wouldn't have had half the hype. If he turns out any better than a good handy midfielder I'll be surprised. He's no star.
     
  23. Jeremias

    Jeremias Moderator

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    Will be interesting if any quotes are forthcoming.

    I'm also waiting for proof of these 'experts' who said the trade was stupid.
     
  24. yyou

    yyou Premiership Player

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    this thread has been spoiled by the Blues vs Crows shitfight, when really we should all act like el Dudarino.
     
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  25. Mitchell54

    Mitchell54 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Especially when there’s a specific thread for this.
     
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