Analysis - Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition) | Page 18 | BigFooty

Analysis Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition)

Discussion in 'Drafts, Trading & Free Agency' started by raffrox, Nov 22, 2018.

  1. tragic

    tragic Draftee

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    Geelong only asked for that in the end because West Coast could not procure a top 10 pick which is what Geelong had always asked for. Not sure how hard West Coast tried but they could have packaged their two second rounders for a mid first. Think they may have tried to do the deal Sydney did with Adelaide and Carlton for pick 13 but it was already too far down the road.
     

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  2. Suma Magic

    Suma Magic Brownlow Medallist

    West Coast
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    Everyone rated Sydney well for the trade they did with West Coast. But was it actually that good?

    Based on assumed finishing positions from the odds market of 3rd for West Coast and 7th for Sydney:

    As a result of the trade they ended up with picks 25, 44 and 51. Also a 2019 third from West Coast, which will be pick 52.

    If they hadn't made the trade, they would have ended up with picks 43, 44, 45 and 55. And also kept their future second (pick 30).

    So in the trade scenario they will be using (or have used) 25, 44, 51 and 52.

    In the non-trade scenario they would have used (or will use) 30, 43, 44, 45 and 55.

    You can say that the 44s cancel out, and perhaps the 51/52 and 45/55 cancel out.

    That leaves it as:
    - pick 25, or
    - picks 30 and 43.
     
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  3. Lance Uppercut

    Lance Uppercut Eat bling

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  4. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

    Sydney
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    We won't need our second rounders next year- we have an academy player in the pipeline who will be around that mark whose name is escaping me for some reason. he'll be a late first-mid second bid probably. Made sense to have a live one this year in a strong draft. This really was a win win trade. Both cubs got something out of it, that's how trading should be.
     
  5. Suma Magic

    Suma Magic Brownlow Medallist

    West Coast
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    That's good info that I hadn't considered. Although playing devil's advocate, you could have kept your second and then traded it next year once you know where the player is actually rated.

    On the numbers the trade is a loss for Sydney, but overall I don't think it's necessarily a bad result. More just interesting to see what the outcome was if they hadn't done the trade.
     
  6. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

    Sydney
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    We probably rated a few prospects this year (and Rowbottom looks like a mid we've lacked for a number of years) who were still on the table as higher than keeping a second next year, of which that second would just be used for points anyway. Can always split out first next year if need be. Honestly I feel very comfortable with the trade and so should West Coast. Gives them flexibility in the likely Tim Kelly deal (will cost at least 1-2 second rounders out of your 5 you have acquired).
     
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  7. master bate

    master bate Brownlow Medallist

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    It's not as good as the instant reactions to that deal but I think it's not too bad if you look at the price other teams paid this year to move up to get a pick around the 25 mark.

    Gold Coast gave up 27 and 32 for 23 and a future 5th.

    GWS gave up 28 and a future 2nd for 24 and a future 5th to get Bobby Hill (and to prevent a Crows academy bid).

    They are both bad trades on paper from teams with exceptional circumstances but they also indicate the price is pretty steep to get in to that part of the draft.

    If the Swans were happy that they'd get the players they wanted with later picks anyway then giving up pick 43 to secure a higher rated player in the 20's now instead of a player in the 30's next year makes sense to me.
     
  8. fridgeman

    fridgeman Club Legend

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    Josh Rayner is the name i think you are after, not sure on details but I think projected to be a tall and playing at both ends of the ground at the moment. Someone to look out for during the season and see where he ends up being rated, member of the AFL academy but with the changes to that system I think they are only state based now
     
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  9. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

    Sydney
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    That’s the one the name just escaped me. He’s not rated as high as Blakely but probably shaping as a solid early second round selection.
     
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  10. Ancient Tiger

    Ancient Tiger Brownlow Medallist

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    The guy had a fracture through his joint! He'll be very lucky to play well again.
     
  11. Dudersaurus

    Dudersaurus Debutant

    Adelaide
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    Especially given his endurance running is (was) his thing. Hate good players getting done over by injury, and hope he gets back, but as much of a steal as it seemed for Hawthorn, I'm thinking in time GWS will be the winner for getting anything in return and cap dump.

    Not really draft though.
     
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  12. Isaac Cumming No 1

    Isaac Cumming No 1 Premium Platinum

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    I wouldn't underrate his will and his professionalism as factor in getting back to best. He's top shelf in both.
     
  13. Brett C

    Brett C All Australian

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    The fracture has healed well and it's the syndesmosis injury that's taking time which isn't unusual.

    Players from multiple sports have suffered this type of injury or worse and come back from them. The fact that he's one of the most professional players in the comp gives him more hope than most and I hardly think the Hawks would have taken the chance on a 3 year deal if they had major concerns.
     
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  14. Ancient Tiger

    Ancient Tiger Brownlow Medallist

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    The club doctor himself thought he was a 50:50 chance to be able to play AFL level footy. That's why he went so cheap.
     
  15. Brett C

    Brett C All Australian

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  16. Dudersaurus

    Dudersaurus Debutant

    Adelaide
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    I know DFA not draft, but does anyone else think Sydney giving Dan Menzel Alex Johnson's number is just tempting fate a touch too hard?
     
  17. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

    Sydney
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    Did think it was a little strange
     
  18. Saintly Viewed

    Saintly Viewed Kingston Town

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    So you’re saying your club is the Jack of all trades?
     
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