Wisdom of the Crowd(BigFooty Edition)

Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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Hey kids, now we have a poll in the game day threads, I thought it might be interesting to track the punting board's general consensus for each week here. I don't know where the mod's pull the lines from at the start of each week but i'll post the Bet 365 closing lines for comparison. I'll also run a profit and loss for consensus/non consensus vote using $1.92 odds and a 1 unit stake. In the event of an even number of votes on both sides of a line, the .92 profit will be split between the for and against. I can probably hazard a guess you will lose less by betting against the majority vote each week but we'll see how bad it can get from here till the end of the season. :D

Round 19.jpg


In summary: Following the majority of BigFooty punters would see you -3.24 units for round 19 whilst betting against the majority put you up 2.52 units. If you had bet on the Monday line and the closing line had moved in your favour, you would have won 7/9. That highlights how important it is to be regularly beating the closing line if you are betting on a Monday.
Round 20 results will be up sometime Monday, anything else you think might be interesting to track let me know and I might add it.
 

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Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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Interesting that the 4 biggest locks lost (if i'm reading the table correctly).

Will be interesting to see the stats broken down by vote share once enough data comes in
4 biggest locks in round 20 e.g. biggest differential between votes were:
87.5% Melbourne -59.5 win
78.95% Collingwood +0.5 loss
75% Fremantle +38.5 loss
71.43% St Kilda -4.5 loss
 
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Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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Round 21
Round 21.jpg


Tough round of tipping this week, the line moves pre game for Geelong and Melbourne were off by a fair way. Don't think you can read too much into the Port and GWS results due to the injuries in game that no doubt had some effect on the final margins.
Following the general BigFooty consensus now puts us at -4.42 units whilst taking the contrarian approach shows an overall profit of 3.26 units. Interestingly the 3 biggest locks this round all got up.
 

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Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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Round 22
Round 22.jpg

Another week, another loss for the crowd and another small profit for the contrarians.
Overall -5.74 units for the crowd, +3.32 against.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
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994
AFL Club
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Round 23
Round 23.jpg

A pretty even round of voting with BigFooty unable to split the teams in 4 of the final round's matches. When tracking the results, awarding half odds where there were an even amount of votes on a game was probably overly generous and should have really been a no bet instead. If we go back and take out the games where there were an even number of votes both sides of the line, the results show a net loss of -5.44 units when following the consensus vote and a net profit of 2.24 units when going against public opinion. Small sample size but it's a little bit of further proof the better value is often found opposing the public/media's opinion when it comes to betting.
There were a couple of games where the B365 line closed on the same number as the BigFooty line so I haven't included them, but if you had been clever enough to beat the closing line every other time, your profit would have been 4.08 units. I must admit I thought the return would be a lot better than that but again, only a small sample size. Round 20 for example was terrible, beating the closing line on each game saw you win 2 and lose 7!

When the public vote was 90% in favour of the line, it went 2-0 for 1.84 units
When the public vote was 80% in favour of the line, it went 5-3 for 1.6 units
When the public vote was 70% in favour of the line, it went 2-8 for -6.16 units
 

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