Wisdom of the Crowd Draft

eastfreo75

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

I have done a excel spreadsheet on 10 mock drafts from BF and come up with draft based on median for each player.

Also, with the academy and father-son bids will be based the self interest of the club making the bid.

At times I won't go for the next player is doesn't make sense.

(median)

Round one
1. Blues - Walsh (1)

2. Suns - Lukosius (2)

3. Suns - Rankine (3)

4. Swans - Blakey (6)
Saints bid as they will know the Swans will match and St Kilda will improve later picks.

5. Saints - M King (4)

6. Port - Rozee (5)

7. Suns - Smith (7)

8. Dogs - B King (7.5)

9 Crows - Hately (9.5)
Caldwell has the same median but I went for the local. Plus Hately mode was pick 9 and Caldwell was 10.

10. Giants - Caldwell (9.5)

11. Port - Clark (11.5)
Bidding on Thomas won't help their draft position. Thomas had the same median but a mode of 9 vs Clark 11.

12. Giants - Duusma (15)
No self interest in bidding on Thomas. Duusma had a better mode than Collier-Dawkins.

13. Roos - Thomas (11.5)
Cats improve later picks.

14. Cats - Collier-Dawkins (15)

15. Crows - Jones (15.5)

16. Dockers - Hill (16)
Makes more sense going local and mode is better for Hill than Butters

17. Port - Butters (17.5)

18. Crows - Stocker (18)

19. Tigers - Sturt (19.5)

20. Dogs - West (21.5)
Lions slightly improve second round picks by bidding on West.

21. Coll - Quaynor (20.5)
Lions improve their third round pick by 3 picks

22. Lions - Taylor (22.5)
O'Halloran has median of 22 but Taylor is mates with Rayner

23. Giants - O'Halloran (22)

24. Eagles - Valente (23)
Could have went Williams (23). Crows have pick 25 and West Coast following pick. Williams or Mclennan will be at pick 26.
 

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eastfreo75

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Round 2

25. Crows - Mclennan (24)
Better local than Williams (23)

26. Eagles - Williams (23)

27. Demons - McHenry (26.5)

28. Suns - E Smith (27)
Could have gone Foley. Suns need more inside grunt.

29. Giants - Foley (27)

30. Lions - McFadyn (29.5)
Demons slightly improve points situation for Bedford.

31. Roos - Scott (30)
read above

32. Demons - Kennerly (32)

33. Suns - Mckenzie (34)

34. Coll - Kelly (35)
Freo bid improves last pick

35. Freo - Stack (35)

36. Giants - Briggs (35)
Dogs improve later picks

37. Dogs - Turner (37)

38. Ess - Bytel (37.5)

39. Lions - Sparrow (37.5)

40. Saints - Hamil (39.5)

41. Tigers - Berry (40)

42. Swans - Koschitzke (44)
Fills a need and from NSW beats Ross (42). No point to put bids on Cameron (36) and Bedford (40.5).
 
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eastfreo75

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Round 3

43. Swans - Ross (42)

44. Eagles - Cameron (34)
Docker improve their last pick

45. Demons - Bedford (40.5)
See above

46. Freo - Greaves (45.5)
local selected over Foot (45)

47. Dogs - Foot (45)

48. Saints - Rowbottom (47)

49. Cats - Reynolds (52)

50. Cats - Joyce (53.5)

51. Hawks - Reid (54)

52. Lions - Hanrahan (58)
 
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theGav56

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Fremantle; Hill, Stack and Greaves....more or less a perfect result I think (if you disregard behavioral reservations about Stack). All locals is a nice touch too. Let it come to pass.
 
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This is an interesting view, well done for giving it a try.

Where it suffers is the wisdom of the crowd in this case is not really the collection of the opinions of independent individuals but will be skewed by group think.

Still it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 

eastfreo75

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This is an interesting view, well done for giving it a try.

Where it suffers is the wisdom of the crowd in this case is not really the collection of the opinions of independent individuals but will be skewed by group think.

Still it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
the other point is that most of mock drafts come from people who watch mostly TAC football.
 

eastfreo75

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Thanks for this. Is this how you did your drafts in previous years? Cos you did well.
And can you say which 10 mock drafts you used?
Last year I used your spreadsheet.

Which was awesome.

This year I did it myself for a mental exercise.

I put things like median,average, difference between median and average and standard deviation. Just for fun.

I stop at the 10 most recent most drafts but Thougt the sample was ok and the results wouldn’t have changed much.

I used:
Snoop Dog
Pie for Life
D P S
Knightmares
Davo
Adzy
Lemming master
Chris
Smyth
True Draft
Get Gaff
Eth
 

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