World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2015

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This morning I placed a bet on Beckley at $21 to win the World Series.

Pretty happy with that bet at the moment. His odds would have sliced in half now.
 
And now he's into second :)
 

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McKEEHEN with QQ raises to 1.6m.
Beckley with JJ and re-raises 4.0m.
McKEEHEN re-raised to 10.2m.

Beckley takes his time in assessing the situation and after about 90 seconds he folds.

* that's a brilliant read. Honestly how do they do it?
 
X_box_X said:
McKEEHEN with QQ raises to 1.6m.
Beckley with JJ and re-raises 4.0m.
McKEEHEN re-raised to 10.2m.

Beckley takes his time in assessing the situation and after about 90 seconds he folds.

**** that's a brilliant read. Honestly how do they do it?
Click to expand...

Its a lot easier with a short stack in the game and $800k US difference between busting next and the following pay-level.
 
Happy Daze said:
Its a lot easier with a short stack in the game and $800k US difference between busting next and the following pay-level.
Click to expand...
Wow! What a position to be in. That must have been such an intense moment for you. Was that your biggest pay day?

Like, surely for you to make such a factual comment, you have to be speaking from experience.
 
X_box_X said:
Wow! What a position to be in. That must have been such an intense moment for you. Was that your biggest pay day?

Like, surely for you to make such a factual comment, you have to be speaking from experience.
Click to expand...

What hes saying is right, you don't need to have experience at major FT's to know ICM, but in saying that who knows if you could remember it when actually there

I haven't looked at the hand at all, but if there is a short stack and a large payjump, calling off with JJs often becomes a very poor decision. Calling off with anything can become a bad decision if the stack/payjump ratio is right
 
JuddsABlue said:
What hes saying is right, you don't need to have experience at major FT's to know ICM, but in saying that who knows if you could remember it when actually there

I haven't looked at the hand at all, but if there is a short stack and a large payjump, calling off with JJs often becomes a very poor decision. Calling off with anything can become a bad decision if the stack/payjump ratio is right
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Fair. I won't argue and pretend to know how you would arrive at the decision to fold. I just thought it would take a lot of guts to fold that.

I would appreciate a more detailed summary as to what would make you fold in that position, if you can be bothered.
 
X_box_X said:
Fair. I won't argue and pretend to know how you would arrive at the decision to fold. I just thought it would take a lot of guts to fold that.

I would appreciate a more detailed summary as to what would make you fold in that position, if you can be bothered.
Click to expand...

It comes down to ICM, which is a complex calculation that takes in to account the payjumps of a final table and the chip counts of the remaining players. It calculates each decision you make and gives it a dollar figure (so in this example, jamming all in with JJ's might make the player $200k, or could lose the player $300k etc). If you got a calculator and put it all the info it would give you an exact amount in dollars either calling/raise/folding makes you.

Its not a calculation someone can do live at the table or in their own head, its something you learn by purchasing an ICM calculator and spending a long time studying it, running hands through it etc and then getting a good feel of what hands become playable and not as the payjumps increase, and then when you're in a tournament you can use that knowledge to guide you to make the correct decision

The whole premise of ICM is based off the idea of your tournament life. Adding to your chip stacks doesn't increase your chances of winning the tournament as much as losing chips decreases your chances of winning the tournament, so its strong on chip preservation and keeping your tournament life.

You'll often here somebody say a player at a final table "committed ICM suicide", this means they made a horrendous decision to go all-in and busted out of the tournament, when the correct ICM decision was to not play the hand the way they did.

You should look to download one of the ICM calculators (just google, many will come up, I use Holdem Resources), and have a player around yourself with some hands you may have had
 
In saying all that, there are players who will ignore ICM in spots, convinced either rightly or wrongly that their own read in that particular spot is so accurate that its more profitable than what ICM will tell them, and others who live by it vigilantly
 
Who we all rooting for from here? McKeehen seems a bit "cold" for mine. Running good and playing good though

I think Beckley and Blumenfield are both much more "likeable" and would be better ambassadors. Not that i have seen Jacobson do too much in the past 12 months
 

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^ ^ I'm not a huge fan of 3 bet folding JJ at that stack depth, because effectively you're turning a very good hand into a bluff, but I can understand why he did it, which Judd explained very well. McKeehan was opening basically any two but wasn't getting out of line at all with his 4 bets. Generally if you are 3 betting that hand that deep you are 3 betting it to get it in - if you are going to fold to a 4 bet maybe just flatting the open might be the best play with the shortie still on the table.

I think Beckley hasn't played all that well in certain situations and a lot of it is to do with ICM: the 88 hand he 3 bet while still quite deep (again if he gets 4 bet he has to fold, its too good a hand to do that, you will get flatted by 99+, J 10+, 4 bet by QQ +, - he was OOP and there's so many situations where he's building a pot for someone else to win and there were several short stacks left yet to bust), the hand where he has AA where there's an open by Blumenfield on the bttn with I think Ax, the Israeli flats in the SB with something like 33 or KJhh, and Beckley puts in this 3 bet with ~ 20 bb to start the hand with his AA, like his hand is just so face up there. If he shoves (he should be shoving his entire playable range) its likely one of them will call it off and he has them dominated.

Also earlier in the event he folded AQ to two barrells vs McKeehan in big stack mode on a KKQx board after committing about 20% of his stack. McKeehan had 7 high. I think though that is understandable given it was the 7th successive day in what is a very gruelling event, so mistakes will be made, but the mistakes he made yesterday were not that excusable given a. he's a professional player, and b. he's had months and months to prepare for this event and should have been focusing what to do exactly with certain hands at certain stack depths given he was short stacked coming into the Nov 9. When you see someone flatting AQo from one of the blinds with under 20 BB to a CO open in a micro event online it looks kind of what it is, which is fishy, so what does it look like in the biggest live event of the year? Yeah he's got some chops, but the last two days have showed he just hasn't prepared for this event, inexcusable really given the amount of $ on the line.
 
Glenno23 said:
Who we all rooting for from here? McKeehen seems a bit "cold" for mine. Running good and playing good though

I think Beckley and Blumenfield are both much more "likeable" and would be better ambassadors. Not that i have seen Jacobson do too much in the past 12 months
Click to expand...

The 'Blumenfield effect', retirees flock to poker, main event starters back to 5 figures
 
Wow...never knew that Devilfish had passed away. I rarely watch poker any more, but he was one of the more entertaining people to watch on late night poker etc... He could be an absolute ####, but he was always an entertaining ####.
 
He was never put in any tough situations though. That was seriously a bad final table in terms of overall play. Respect to Blumenfield, thought he was the only player really to have a go, his last hand was a blow up however. I was really expecting a lot more from Steinberg, as Max Silver said: "he should be ashamed of himself" - guess he's got 2.6 milly though to help with the embarassment. Beckley just smashed buttons from go to woe. I'm fairly sure this FT isn't going to do anything for the long term appeal of the game.
 
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