Would footy be better without national expansion?

Isaac Cumming No 1

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With the declining crowd numbers for the Q clash it suggests to me that expansion is not going to plan and to think of the 10's of millions spent so far on the Suns, and please no comments about 10 year,15 year or 20 year plans on the GC. It ain't working
Iv'e said it all along and will continue to say it that the AFL made a huge mistake not putting a club in Tassie
Metricon crowds are actually very solid. It's been a wierd year fir with the Commonweath games, and no onfield success. I just dont think you can draw a negative inference for them, I haven't seen projections or the clubs expectations but hard to imagine they'd be disappointed.

The Lions look to be on the up and up onfield.

Wait and see for the next couple of years I think before getting worried.
 

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madmug

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Why wouldn't there be as much 'top-tier talent' for 18 teams now as there was for 16 teams, in say 1996?

Australia's population in 1996 was about 18.3 million. In 2018 Australia's population was 24.7 million.

You'd think with an extra 6 million people between 1996 and 2018, of which roughly half are male, there would be at least another 80 players of a talent commensurate with that of existing AFL talent in 1996 to fill two extra teams by 2018.

By extension, if Australia adds, (as is projected) another 14 million people by 2050 why wouldn't there be an equal amount of top tier talent for at least another two teams, which would involve adding another 80 players (from a pool of roughly an extra 7 million males)?
Of the extra 6 million from 1996 'til now, 3 million are from OS. 1/2 of them would have move into non AF territory. Even if they do move into AF territory, its a big cultural change to actually start playing AF, indeed any sport when coming to a foreign land. So, yes we've grown. But how many would be engaged in AF?
 

Kwality

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I think you will find dude that the number one roadblock to wa3 is not the AFL being "vicco" but the WCE wanting to maintain its stranglehold on the state. It's against their own interest financially to agree to another local competitor.

They have wait lists for memberships, corp hospitality and sponsorships. Bring in wa3, and that risks getting diluted
The Eagles are 30 years in the making, & its powerbase (supporters & financial) is very much shared with its owner the WAFC - easy taking potshots, see the new Stadium negotiations.
Given the WAFC run WA footy, & the AFL clubs are integral to that business model, I'm not sure whats in it for anyone to have another AFL club in WA that would battle to fund itself - the national expansion is 100% in the AFLs court & the Eagles were there from day #1, but i've seen no indication that the Eagles as a club have any special influence.
 

rfctiger74

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The Eagles are 30 years in the making, & its powerbase (supporters & financial) is very much shared with its owner the WAFC - easy taking potshots, see the new Stadium negotiations.
Given the WAFC run WA footy, & the AFL clubs are integral to that business model, I'm not sure whats in it for anyone to have another AFL club in WA that would battle to fund itself - the national expansion is 100% in the AFLs court & the Eagles were there from day #1, but i've seen no indication that the Eagles as a club have any special influence.
The excess demand makes the wce a licence to print money for the wce and wafc. I highly doubt wce have zero influence in the corridors of power at the wafc
 

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Of the extra 6 million from 1996 'til now, 3 million are from OS.
About 2.7 million, according to migrant numbers.

1/2 of them would have move into non AF territory. Even if they do move into AF territory, its a big cultural change to actually start playing AF, indeed any sport when coming to a foreign land. So, yes we've grown. But how many would be engaged in AF?
So you're claiming we still can't find 80 players of commensurate talent to that of 1996 to make two extra teams, and thus the current talent pool compared with the talent pool in 1996 with 16 teams is now diluted.

This is despite having several players born overseas on current AFL lists, such as Allir Allir, Mabior Chol, Brant Colledge, Aidan Corr, Mason Cox, Majak Daw, Conor Glass, Pearce Hanley, Jason Johanissen, Andrew McGrath, Connor McKenna, Conor Nash, Shane Savage and Zach Tuohy. That makes up a third of one extra list alone.

In 2013 a total of 121 players from a multicultural background (with at least one parent born overseas) were among 817 AFL listed players.

There's quite a few children of immirgrants on AFL lists in 2018 including Lin Jong, Dane Rampe, Jack Riewoldt, Esava Ratugolea, David Zaharakis, Alex Rance, Alex Silvagni, Reece Conca, Brett Deledio, Alex Fasolo, Christian Petracca, Paul Puopolo, Mark Blicavs, Bachar Houli, Adam Saad, Christian Salem, Dustin Martin, David Swallow, Sam Docherty, Tendei Mzungu and Jack Watts just to name some of them.
 
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Isaac Cumming No 1

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Of the extra 6 million from 1996 'til now, 3 million are from OS. 1/2 of them would have move into non AF territory. Even if they do move into AF territory, its a big cultural change to actually start playing AF, indeed any sport when coming to a foreign land. So, yes we've grown. But how many would be engaged in AF?
It's not what I see though. Western Sydney is a melting pot and the cultural mix in the juniors would surprise you I think. It's probably around 50-50 anglo-Celtic and other cultural backgrounds

Even more important than broadening the AFL talent pool though is the way engagement with sport tends to unify, contact brings familiarity and comfort. It's an important factor in humanizing people and reducing fear and distrust in my view.
 

madmug

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About 2.7 million, according to migrant numbers.



So you're claiming we still can't find 80 players of commensurate talent to that of 1996 to make two extra teams, and thus the current talent pool compared with the talent pool in 1996 with 16 teams is now diluted.

This is despite having several players born overseas on current AFL lists, such as Allir Allir, Mabior Chol, Brant Colledge, Aidan Corr, Mason Cox, Majak Daw, Conor Glass, Pearce Hanley, Jason Johanissen, Andrew McGrath, Connor McKenna, Conor Nash, Shane Savage and Zach Tuohy. That makes up a third of one extra list alone.

In 2013 a total of 121 players from a multicultural background (with at least one parent born overseas) were among 817 AFL listed players.

There's quite a few children of immirgrants on AFL lists in 2018 including Lin Jong, Dane Rampe, Jack Riewoldt, Esava Ratugolea, David Zaharakis, Alex Rance, Alex Silvagni, Reece Conca, Brett Deledio, Alex Fasolo, Christian Petracca, Paul Puopolo, Mark Blicavs, Bachar Houli, Adam Saad, Christian Salem, Dustin Martin, David Swallow, Sam Docherty, Tendei Mzungu and Jack Watts just to name some of them.
Didn't say that.

I was merely trying to indicate its not a one to one, or perhaps one million to one million proposition. Most players come from the Anglo-saxon & European backgrounds. We have much less migrant intake from those places now. It will take a lot of time to get the AF culture into those new arrivals.

I think it obvious we haven't seen many Asian heritage players. Some 220k claim Vietnamese heritage, yet the % of whom who've graduated to the AFL is, how many? A lot more work needs to be done to get that cultural change.

Even here I see many more Asian/African people than I use to. My mates kids play soccah. So I get roped in on occasion to go to games (uggh!!). I see a real 'melting pot'. I dont see anything like that in AF. So even with a growing population here, I don't see those new faces at our game.

Maybe that too is part of the chronic under investment here. Sure the AL CGAF about Tassie in the AFL. But what about the rest of the game here? Who cares about that? Should it matter for kids that they dont live in GC, West Sydney or wherever?
 
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It's not what I see though. Western Sydney is a melting pot and the cultural mix in the juniors would surprise you I think. It's probably around 50-50[?] anglo-Celtic and other cultural backgrounds.
I am surprised you say Western Sydney jnr GR players are 50-50 Anglo-Celtic. I thought the non anglo-celtic jnr AF in WS was much lower?

How certain are you of this ratio?
How do you know?
Are you calculating for jnr Club players only -or are you including ALL jnrs. in schools & Auskick, as well as Club?

Can you provide a rough % estimate of EACH of the different ethnic groups (ie not including Anglo-Celtic) of regd. AF players in Western Sydney:-

. jnr Club cpmpetitions
. primary & secondary school comps.
. Auskick
 
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Roylion

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Didn't say that.

I was merely trying to indicate its not a one to one, or perhaps one million to one million proposition. Most players come from the Anglo-saxon & European backgrounds.
And even when they did come from Anglo Saxon or European backgrounds (e.g Italy and Greece), soccer was still the main game.

We have much less migrant intake from those places now. It will take a lot of time to get the AF culture into those new arrivals.
Why would it take any more time than it did previously?

I think it obvious we haven't seen many Asian heritage players.
Yet.

Some 220k claim Vietnamese heritage, yet the % of whom who've graduated to the AFL is, how many? A lot more work needs to be done to get that cultural change.

Even here I see many more Asian/African people than I use to. My mates kids play soccah. So I get roped in on occasion to go to games (uggh!!). I see a real 'melting pot'. I dont see anything like that in AF. So even with a growing population here, I don't see those new faces at our game.
You do still have 3 million natural increase in population to draw an extra 80 AFL standard players for two more teams. I don't see any dilution of talent becase we have 18 teams now instead of the 16 team situation in 1996.

Which was my point.
 

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Rob

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With the declining crowd numbers for the Q clash it suggests to me that expansion is not going to plan and to think of the 10's of millions spent so far on the Suns, and please no comments about 10 year,15 year or 20 year plans on the GC. It ain't working
Iv'e said it all along and will continue to say it that the AFL made a huge mistake not putting a club in Tassie
Yeah nothing to do with both teams being shit.
 

SellarStardom

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Why wouldn't there be as much 'top-tier talent' for 18 teams now as there was for 16 teams, in say 1996?

Australia's population in 1996 was about 18.3 million. In 2018 Australia's population was 24.7 million.

You'd think with an extra 6 million people between 1996 and 2018, of which roughly half are male, there would be at least another 80 players of a talent commensurate with that of existing AFL talent in 1996 to fill two extra teams by 2018.

By extension, if Australia adds, (as is projected) another 14 million people by 2050 why wouldn't there be an equal amount of top-tier talent for at least another two teams, which would involve adding another 80 players (from a pool of roughly an extra 7 million males)?
A few reasons:
- participation levels haven't increased with the State leagues falling away, it is a limited pool of opportunity. If you were talented at sport and had the options of a 1 in 70 (draft) chance versus the multiple pathways for soccer or rugby why choose Aussie rules.
- the expansion hasn't resulted in more top-tier talent, it is about the same as before and the mid-level has grown and now spills into the State leagues.

There are more minor reasons I am sure.

Greater opportunities to be a professional Aussie rules footballer would deliver greater participation and a growth in top-tier talent. Pathways equal opportunity and participation.
 

Roylion

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A few reasons:
- participation levels haven't increased with the State leagues falling away, it is a limited pool of opportunity.
Partipication levels in what?

There's more opportunity. 16 x 42 odd places on a list = 672 players in 1996 compared to 756 players on a list in 2018.

If you were talented at sport and had the options of a 1 in 70 (draft) chance versus the multiple pathways for soccer or rugby why choose Aussie rules.
A mimimum three selections in a draft per club makes a minimum 48 selections for 16 clubs. Minimum three selections per club for 18 clubs = 54 minimum selections per year.

- the expansion hasn't resulted in more top-tier talent, it is about the same as before
80 more places in AFL football. More opportunity. A larger population base to draw elite players from.

Greater opportunities to be a professional Aussie rules footballer would deliver greater participation and a growth in top-tier talent. Pathways equal opportunity and participation.
There are greater opportunities with expansion.
 

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SellarStardom

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Free agency is a bigger problem than national expansion.
This is a key point. Free agency is not going to lead to top players leaving to join weaker clubs, they will tend to go to the bigger clubs. So for clubs like North, Bulldogs, Brisbane, GC, GWS, even Carlton and Melbourne, they are pushing up hill against the Hawks, Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong as the destination clubs.

With FA set to kick in earlier and players wanting absolute freedom we may have two divisions form automatically.
 

telsor

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This is a key point. Free agency is not going to lead to top players leaving to join weaker clubs, they will tend to go to the bigger clubs. So for clubs like North, Bulldogs, Brisbane, GC, GWS, even Carlton and Melbourne, they are pushing up hill against the Hawks, Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong as the destination clubs.

With FA set to kick in earlier and players wanting absolute freedom we may have two divisions form automatically.
Depending on how big a deal the 'go home factor' actually is, WA & SA clubs would also benefit (relatively speaking those states produce more players than they have clubs).
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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This is a key point. Free agency is not going to lead to top players leaving to join weaker clubs, they will tend to go to the bigger clubs. So for clubs like North, Bulldogs, Brisbane, GC, GWS, even Carlton and Melbourne, they are pushing up hill against the Hawks, Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong as the destination clubs.

With FA set to kick in earlier and players wanting absolute freedom we may have two divisions form automatically.
:eek:We're a weak club?
 

SellarStardom

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So far most of the FA has gone in favour of the big Vic clubs, unlikely to change. Yes there will be some go home factors but the biggest state, Victoria, will always win.

In terms of a weak club, the Giants are weak in terms of attracting key FA's at the moment as most want to go to the big V clubs as mentioned.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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So far most of the FA has gone in favour of the big Vic clubs, unlikely to change. Yes there will be some go home factors but the biggest state, Victoria, will always win.

In terms of a weak club, the Giants are weak in terms of attracting key FA's at the moment as most want to go to the big V clubs as mentioned.
We aren't trying to attract free agents as far as I'm aware, and haven't had any.
 

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I think you will find dude that the number one roadblock to wa3 is not the AFL being "vicco" but the WCE wanting to maintain its stranglehold on the state. It's against their own interest financially to agree to another local competitor.
Surely the AFL could squash any blocking moves by the Eagles or Freo. It's not like they would have listened to Sydney or Brisbane if they'd protested against their market being encroached on.

WA 3 sounds like a better idea than any other non-Tasmanian expansion. I just wonder how they'd differentiate themselves. Base themselves in the north like Freo has done in the south? Not like it's worked out for West Perth though.
 

madmug

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Surely the AFL could squash any blocking moves by the Eagles or Freo. It's not like they would have listened to Sydney or Brisbane if they'd protested against their market being encroached on.

WA 3 sounds like a better idea than any other non-Tasmanian expansion. I just wonder how they'd differentiate themselves. Base themselves in the north like Freo has done in the south? Not like it's worked out for West Perth though.
As I've said, It doesn't need to be some suburban based club. Call it Perth. Maybe Sharks or whatever.
 
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