Racing WS Cox Plate 2021 - dedicated raceday thread

Remove this Banner Ad

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
When the extra distance is covered is the only thing that matters. Anamoe isn’t in the finish if it takes VE’s run. VE is possibly in the finish if it takes Anamoe’s run. Either way though the best horse on the day walked away the winner which is all we can really ask for.
it's an irrelevant measure IMO, but it took a 10 second fact check to disprove conclusively prove the statement was false.
 

99 Problems

Club Legend
Aug 4, 2016
1,138
1,198
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Everton
it's an irrelevant measure IMO, but it took a 10 second fact check to disprove conclusively prove the statement was false.
It is irrelevant, but there is a huge difference between being caught wide early with no pressure in the race against making the widest run turning for home when everyone is flat out, particularly at the valley.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
It is irrelevant, but there is a huge difference between being caught wide early with no pressure in the race against making the widest run turning for home when everyone is flat out, particularly at the valley.
I have no desire to debate semantics, SOR 1, Anamoe 2, VE 3. All looked to have their chance. Small things change results. Simply responding to a desperate post trying to come up with excuses to how VE was better than Anamoe.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

mcnulty

Premiership Player
Sep 18, 2019
3,410
4,793
AFL Club
Hawthorn
A question, knowledgeable forumites. I’m presuming SOR was weighted as we would weight a SH Autumn 3yo. Only I can’t find 56.5kg on the WFA scale for this distance range. On my reading he should have had 55.5kg. My reading is therefore wrong, but could anyone shed any light on this?
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,249
36,245
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
A question, knowledgeable forumites. I’m presuming SOR was weighted as we would weight a SH Autumn 3yo. Only I can’t find 56.5kg on the WFA scale for this distance range. On my reading he should have had 55.5kg. My reading is therefore wrong, but could anyone shed any light on this?
They have their own scale so it’s not exactly a like for like comparison
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
By they do you mean the MVRC?
Racing Vic, they penalise them more including in MC because our scale is wrong and needs a revision.

Adelaide won with 56kg but we getting too many winning so they keep increasing.

 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Well the horse did a good job. Doesn’t look like he was exactly pitched in. Glad I didn’t think of that before I backed him!

As i posted earlier in the thread 3yo's have too high a performance correlation in CP and over WFA in general in Australia during their spring/autumn 3yo campaigns, especially over distance (we rarely see it). A few years ago the BHA acknowledged the same for their staying races and revised their WFA scale. Dan O'sullivan in his preview on friday also mentioned it's about 1kg out according to his scale. They also have 3lb allowance for mares which is much better and realistic since the new trend post steriod regulations. If you google alteration to flat wfa scale BHA there is some info on their last revision which is a work in progress as obviously it is an estimate created by people based on noisy results and data. It's an interesting enough read if you are that way inclined. It's a challenge but we are still just left with a result that's "close enough to fair so we will call it WFA". I expect the next revision may be even harsher on the 3yos again.

Personally I use the BHA scale as ours is becoming a bit in need of a clean up and I would love to see the 3lb for mares to come into affect.
 
Last edited:

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,249
36,245
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Well the horse did a good job. Doesn’t look like he was exactly pitched in. Glad I didn’t think of that before I backed him!
Not that it’s relevant to the protest decision the stewards have to make but the fact Anamoe couldn’t run past him the entire straight despite carrying 7 kg less is pretty telling that the right horse won
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
8,237
9,349
AFL Club
West Coast
Not that it’s relevant to the protest decision the stewards have to make but the fact Anamoe couldn’t run past him the entire straight despite carrying 7 kg less is pretty telling that the right horse won
Its WFA mate the weight means SFA in this discussion
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Fabab

Club Legend
May 2, 2018
2,853
2,365
AFL Club
Carlton
As i posted earlier in the thread 3yo's have too high a performance correlation in CP and over WFA in general in Australia during their spring/autumn 3yo campaigns, especially over distance (we rarely see it). A few years ago the BHA acknowledged the same for their staying races and revised their WFA scale. Dan O'sullivan in his preview on friday also mentioned it's about 1kg out according to his scale. They also have 3lb allowance for mares which is much better and realistic since the new trend post steriod regulations. If you google alteration to flat wfa scale BHA there is some info on their last revision which is a work in progress as obviously it is an estimate created by people based on noisy results and data. It's an interesting enough read if you are that way inclined. It's a challenge but we are still just left with a result that's "close enough to fair so we will call it WFA". I expect the next revision may be even harsher on the 3yos again.

Personally I use the BHA scale as ours is becoming a bit in need of a clean up and I would love to see the 3lb for mares to come into affect.
G.mren snrop[f],d.Makes the eame sense as you.
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,249
36,245
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Geez only just realized the mega late go again SOR on betfair with a BSP in the 6.80s!!!! Was legit still 8.50 30 seconds before they jumped
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad