Racing WS Cox Plate 2021 - dedicated raceday thread

[Jugada]

Mo You Think to run

 

[iluvparis]

Perfect for those looking to find the actual winner as he is already utter poi poi and will only firm from here.

Only three possible winners for mine - Zaaki, VE and State Of Rest in that order.

 

[iluvparis]

In all seriousness though the only chance Mo has is if they get their hands off their dicks and actually choose to ride him forward - that's the only way the 3yos win it - settle in the first 3 and make the older horses with the weight chase. Given how he was ridden in the Guineas (too far back for mine) I am not sure whether they have the cajones for it.

 

[Jugada]

Race is wide open for mine.

Value:

Zaaki @ 3.50
State of Rest @ 12
Dragon @ 21
Captivant @ 26

Fair:

Anamoe
Verry Elleegant
Keiai Nautique

Unders:

Gold Trip
Probabeel
Everything else

 

[iluvparis]

Race is wide open for mine.

Value:

Zaaki @ 3.50
State of Rest @ 12
Dragon @ 21
Captivant @ 26

Fair:

Anamoe
Verry Elleegant
Keiai Nautique

Unders:

Gold Trip
Probabeel
Everything else

Looks good - I'd just bump VE up into the value and drop the Jap down into the Unders (without even looking at its price - sneaky chance to get balloted for mine) - would be keen to get on Capt in a first 3yo home market.

 

[Jugada]

The Jap at 100/1 isnt terrible for a roughie for mine. Runs to his best good get into the top 5

 

[Dominion]

Where is Zaaki 3.50?

 

[54Dogs]

Where is Zaaki 3.50?

There's some 3.65 and plenty of 3.60 available on BF at the moment.

 

[Jugada]

Not sure if it was Lads or 365 when i posted but doesnt appear to bet there anymore. Still $3.25 on B365 value for mine

 

[FallingLiefs]

Did I miss the part where Craig is not riding Zaaki?

Booked for Anamoe.

 

[iluvparis]

The Jap at 100/1 isnt terrible for a roughie for mine. Runs to his best good get into the top 5

He might be able to fall into a hole if a number run their best but he is like the Masky boy of mile + races - just not fast enough to get into the race - maybe worth throwing into exotics if your desperate to flesh them out but my guess is he runs past a few tired horses late and finishes 6th-8th - he is a genuine 100/1 shot - just not that good any more

 

[FallingLiefs]

Surely big market reaction, we already seeing 3.50 fly out the door for Zaaki and unless it’s a sign Jmac is coming, Craig’s ditched Zaaki for the 3yo.

Timeform have him within 1lb Dan O’Sullivan about same, on this preparations figures that is. If he’s a 2000m horse he probably improves the required to beat Zaaki at his best(doomben 1 off excluded)

 

[iluvparis]

 

[TBellicious]

In all seriousness though the only chance Mo has is if they get their hands off their dicks and actually choose to ride him forward - that's the only way the 3yos win it - settle in the first 3 and make the older horses with the weight chase. Given how he was ridden in the Guineas (too far back for mine) I am not sure whether they have the cajones for it.

They will 100%.
Trainers know that's the only way a 3 year old can win. Look at Castelvecchio - ridden dead at every start but in the Cox Plate they lit him up early and was in first handful.
Anamoe will go forward and be very hard to beat.

 

[iluvparis]

They will 100%.
Trainers know that's the only way a 3 year old can win. Look at Castelvecchio - ridden dead at every start but in the Cox Plate they lit him up early and was in first handful.
Anamoe will go forward and be very hard to beat.

I wouldn't be so sure - these connections are renowned for having little initiative and being very defensive.

Even then I doubt he is anywhere good enough and is gross gross unders - I'd rather take Captivant at nearly 6 times the price.

 

[dontlimitme]

well at least my zaaki bets can't get willowed

 

[TBellicious]

 

[iluvparis]

View attachment 1258083

Ah yes the mythical upside. Lets hope he can find it.

They might have rated lower but they had a more tractable racing pattern and were better suited to the 2000 - Mo was off the bit a long way from home on Saturday and has never settled in the first half of the field in his life. Remember this stage last week Artorius was going to settle much much closer from a better gate too.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

well at least my zaaki bets can't get willowed

They will if Anamoe beats Zaaki

 

[iluvparis]

They will if Anamoe beats Zaaki

 

[Slipps]

Not sure if it was Lads or 365 when i posted but doesnt appear to bet there anymore. Still $3.25 on B365 value for mine

$3 on lads boosted to $3.3

 

[iluvparis]

 

[Gavin Excell]

Any chance Anamoe jumps favourite?

 

[iluvparis]

Any chance Anamoe jumps favourite?

Yes - if Zaaki doesn't line up

 

[FallingLiefs]

Any chance Anamoe jumps favourite?

Seems a fairly soft market towards top. Could pot the lot of them. As envious of a race to price up in vic for a long time. Would love to tackle the form on it in depth.