Racing WS Cox Plate 2021 - dedicated raceday thread

[FallingLiefs]

You can still get $3.20 Zaaki
Biggest load up and get in queue since Lys Gracieux

Anamoe laughable short, every year we see it 3yo hyped.. it gets blown away on corner
The odd one pops up

generally they flop
Helmet
Miss Finland
Grandslam
Yankee rose

list goes on

I'd be surprised if 3yo's don't outperform their representation. I will be going for Anamoe but might just be short if Zaaki gets back to normal or VE finds a wet track (forecasted). I don't think he'd be classified as a vintage winner by any stretch but you are taking the faves off terrible runs.

10seconds of research says we've had 21 runners for 3 winners in last 20 years.


21 - 3-3-4. Say average field size of 10 they winning at 50% more than expected average and placing 20% more

a quick glance probably has around 3 as faves.

Last few to run

Castel - 3rd fave, ran 2nd
Royal Symphony - 2nd fave $19, ran 4th
Yankee - 3rd fave, ran 3rd
Sweynesse, Almalad, Wandjina - 8th, 12th, 13th fave - ran 8th, 10th, 13th

 

[FallingLiefs]

Moral of the story there is they at least performing to expectation, maybe slightly better

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Each to thier own
But you surely trust the proven WFA group 1 horses over a 3yo who wasn’t that impressive winning a Guineas
I mean he’s no The Autumn Sun ffs

clear top 3
Zaaki
VE
State of Rest

followed by : Mounga, Dalasan, Callsign Mav then Anamoe gasping for air as it crosses the like against the big boys

happy to wager a MC $30 trifecta Liefsy? Zaaki v Anamoe H2H

 

[FallingLiefs]

Each to thier own
But you surely trust the proven WFA group 1 horses over a 3yo who wasn’t that impressive winning a Guineas
I mean he’s no The Autumn Sun ffs

clear top 3
Zaaki
VE
State of Rest

followed by : Mounga, Dalasan, Callsign Mav then Anamoe gasping for air as it crosses the like against the big boys

happy to wager a MC $30 trifecta Liefsy? Zaaki v Anamoe H2H

I have Zaaki on top too but if you can give me a 3yo to beat him i'd be in for the sake of a CP interest.

At current prices Captivant probably my bet for what its worth.

 

[Jugada]

List of 3 yo to win Cox plate this century pls?…
Shamus Award and Savabeel , that’s it yes?

So You Think.

3 wins and 6 placings in the last 17 years not terrible. Even more so when you consider 3yos didnt even run in 4 of those Cox Plates

 

[plays tall 1]

All Too Hard and Pierro second and third in 2012

 

[plays tall 1]

Looks like there’s a run for Forgot You if they want it. Crazy if they don’t take it - he’s a colt and winning the Derby will destroy any stallion value he might have.

It’s certainly not a vintage year with the favourite Zaaki exposed last start when not getting a race on his terms, and meeting a much stronger field here.

Of the 3 year olds Forgot You looks best suited at the trip. Confident he’ll beat Captivant home at least. Unusual horse, seems to hit flat spots but then really get stuck in. Race shape might just suit him. $61/$16 worth a bet I think albeit he might not even start.

 

[iluvparis]

The only 3yos to win it have been up on the pace - Anamoe has never settled in the first half of the field in his life. He is the worst priced horse I can rememer in a Cox Plate for at least 20 years which makes a price for everything else in the race. I reckon he will be the last 3yo home - you want a Derby type to be competitive - not a sprinter miler. The other two look far superior bets if you want to get on the 3yo fap train.

Got to laugh though - two weeks ago when he was $3 in a Guineas everyone wanted to be on Artroius - now they want to be all over the Moe at $4 in a Cox Plate?

Lol

 

[iluvparis]

Anyway last year I thought there were only 3 possible winners and they ran 1-2-3 in order.

Doesn't look any different this year - Zaaki, VE and SOR in that order- you can pen the rest and you can even back all 3 given how poi poi the 3yo is

 

[mozz23]

VE $3 place (neds) - Expect the champ to bounce back from last starts rock hard track failure, surely starts shorter once incentivise officially pulls out of the race. a bit of rain on the radar for friday and saturday (hopefully track in the soft range)

 

[Jugada]

VE $3 place (neds) - Expect the champ to bounce back from last starts rock hard track failure, surely starts shorter once incentivise officially pulls out of the race. a bit of rain on the radar for friday and saturday (hopefully track in the soft range)

Rock hard track failure? It was a ruddy Soft 5

Bookies well and truly have the fact Incent isnt going there factored in already

 

[checkraiseulite]

all over the $71/19 forgot you

 

[HeathySure]

i remember the days when the Cauflield guineas winner would not get a run because they werent good enough. Forget you getting a run is just... yeah

anyway i am going to OK Boomer myself before you young mongrels do it to me

 

[iluvparis]

i remember the days when the Cauflield guineas winner would not get a run because they werent good enough. Forget you getting a run is just... yeah

anyway i am going to OK Boomer myself before you young mongrels do it to me

Nah I'm with you - they should go back to being much more aggressive with the balloting

Forgot You, the Jap, and Big Dal should all be thrown out

 

[HeathySure]

Nah I'm with you - they should go back to being much more aggressive with the balloting

Forgot You, the Jap, and Big Dal should all be thrown out

dal ran 3rd in the QE he deserves a run

 

[iluvparis]

dal ran 3rd in the QE he deserves a run

No he doesn't - had 1000 goes at G1 level and yet to win one.

 

[HeathySure]

No he doesn't - had 1000 goes at G1 level and yet to win one.

View attachment 1262917

so what? got better form than Happy Trails who is probably the closest to him in form and he almost ran fave one year.

 

[iluvparis]

so what? got better form than Happy Trails who is probably the closest to him in form and he almost ran fave one year.

HT was a G1 winner though. Now stop being a softie and start chucking horses out Cole Diesel style you boomer

 

[checkraiseulite]

lel

lot of SYT about forgot you’s run in the guineas.



forgot you will eat 2000 and it’s crazy anamoe is $3.80 and forgot you $71 on the back of their guineas runs.

 

[iluvparis]

lel

lot of SYT about forgot you’s run in the guineas.



forgot you will eat 2000 and it’s crazy anamoe is $3.80 and forgot you $71 on the back of their guineas runs.

Look I could be wrong but happy to suggest he is no So you think.

SYTs guineas was also a complete boat race whereas it was truly run this year.

Also can’t see him racing on pace which is key for 3yos

 

[checkraiseulite]

obv not (SYT an all time great), but has more chance of winning the race than proven second raters who have none and should get a crack at the race like other 3 year olds have in the past.

 

[FallingLiefs]

dal ran 3rd in the QE he deserves a run

I think Dal better the other way but was huge with the weight in an epsom. 0.5L off Addeybb, nearly outpoints VE. Donny placing.

Deserves a spot.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i remember the days when the Cauflield guineas winner would not get a run because they werent good enough. Forget you getting a run is just... yeah

anyway i am going to OK Boomer myself before you young mongrels do it to me

What guineas winner got kicked out?

 

[HeathySure]

What guineas winner got kicked out?

the 1992 edition lol the greatest bunch of horses ever to race anywhere even if they were all gone.

 

[Dominion]

Look I could be wrong but happy to suggest he is no So you think.

SYTs guineas was also a complete boat race whereas it was truly run this year.

Also can’t see him racing on pace which is key for 3yos

Any less likely to race on pace than say Castelveccio or All Too Hard were? I know they both found one better on the day, but the point is they still raced up on pace despite it going completely against their usual pattern. It's just what the 3yos do in a CP with such a small weight. Can't remember last one that didn't?

Now whether or not they're anywhere good enough is a different story...