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plus he is a non winner of course
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Racing WS Cox Plate 2022
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iluvparis
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Wut? Has won 2 of his last 4?
- Apr 10, 2008
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Moody declaring I Wish I Win will target the Cox Plate and not the Golden Eagle. Heading to the Toorak to assess how he fares over 1600m.
iluvparis
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You absolutely love to see it
$9 lol, these futures markets are absolutely rancid.
iluvparis
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If you want to back it in Futures you may as well multi it with the Toorak as it won't get a run if it doesnt win there
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- #257
Couple bonus bet Guineas/Cox Plate multis on Bank Maur, Tijuana and Foujita San at a squillion to one. Highly doubt they're up to it but if one of them can win the Guineas they will be single figures in the Cox Plate the way we are going and might be able to lay off
iluvparis
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Ahhhh just back them in the guineas then and don’t set fire to your bonus bets
There is zero chance of any of those walkers starting single figures in a cox plate
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- #259
Bank Maur/Fujita San effectively 70-1 post Guineas and Tijuana 20-1. Feel like more meat on the bone to lay off later. Has a Guineas winner ever started double figures in a Cox Plate? Even Manhattan Rain and SYT who lost were sub 20s.
If horses coming off Listed 1300m races are coming into sub 15s then there will be hype support for the Guineas winner in a trash year
iluvparis
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Mate. It is not starting single figures. Forget it. All the runners at the top of the market have mega SP profiles and it’s not starting shorter than any of them under any circumstances. This is a horrible idea. You’ll basically get same odds just backing them in the Guineas then rolling it into sp
Your only hope is if 3 of them defect in which case you should just back Anamoe now or Oberon EW
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- #261
Dont need to start single figures, BM/FS can just start less than 70-1 on the fair or Tijuana 20-1 and there is more meat on the bone than just backing in the Guineas. Its shekels to win 10k+ so not overly concerned more just a small interest in a weak year in case one of them goes big in a Guineas
Agree with Moe and Oberon being the two worth backing in the market at the moment
iluvparis
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Its an utterly terrible idea - pointless and a waste of money because they are bog average 3yos so even if they win the Guineas they won't start that short. Would be like taking Mighty Boss into the Cox Plate lel
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- #263
Luckily they are bog average older horses too. Happy to take a side bet all day long that if Bank Maur/Foujita San wins the Guineas they start sub 50-1 in a Cox Plate or Tijuana sub 20-1
Shamus Award lost a Guineas at 20-1 and still started the same price in a Cox Plate
iluvparis
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Tijuana right now at the TAB gets you 232/1
It's $13 for the Guineas so you need it to start shorter than $18 in the CP. People don't think we have an even crop either - they think they are all stars - so you need some of them to dodge to get that $18 CP - it is a ludicrous plan to maybe, MAYBE eke out a point or two that goes horrendously wrong if Top Ranked bolts in an Epsom or the M&P is a bunched finish like in the Underwood and all the ones at the top of the market start $12 or less. Or they win the Guineas and don't go on - or they go full Zaaki and get scratched final field.
It is a hideously bad idea - just back them in the Guineas and reinvest on the day - it is so obvious. Better yet - back them in the Guineas and the reinvest on the day ON HORSES THAT CAN ACTUALLY WIN!
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Ive got 281 Tijuana, 1829 FS and 1195 BM with Lads.
Tijuana @ 13s now needs to start sub 21
BM @ 17s now needs to start sub 70
FS @ 26s now needs to start sub 70
Like I said its legit shekels to win 10-20k on a few I think are bred to be mile-2000m horses in the hope that one of them goes big in the Guineas and pushes on. Obviously they might not even end up there but guarantee if one of them wins the Guineas they will be at a shorter price than I need them to be to 5 mins after the Guineas
iluvparis
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Go for you life - I've pointed out while it is an utterly terrible strategy
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- #267
and ive said welcome to any side bets on those horses starting the odds i need them too should they win
iluvparis
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No that is a pointless side bet - how much profit do you make by one starting $16 v the BE of $21 for example with all the extra risk you don't have if you simply rollover. If a man of your intellect can't see how terrible a betting strategy this is I can't help you any further.
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- #269
iluvparis
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Ill be back after Bank Maur wins the Guineas by 3
I'll have a shekel on him at 66/1 in the cox plate final field if he does
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I do seem to like the irony of arguing over what’s better value in a futures market. Appeals to me for some reason.
What are we up to our 4th favourite that’s “huge overs” and “will be much shorter on the day” might even “only have to turn up”
Meanwhile Sportsbet making that much on it they giving peoples money back.
What are we up to our 4th favourite that’s “huge overs” and “will be much shorter on the day” might even “only have to turn up”
Meanwhile Sportsbet making that much on it they giving peoples money back.
speedingaway
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These are all the horses I've seen that have mentioned possibly having a crack at a Cox Plate - you could cast doubts on almost all of them. Who would you take in a trifecta out of this lot?
Anamoe
Zaaki
Mo'unga
Alligator Blood
El Bodegon
My Oberon
I'm Thunderstruck
Mr. Brightside
Top Ranked
I Wish I Win
Duais
Gold Trip
Profondo
Pinstriped
Sharp N Smart
Hinged/Fangirl
Anamoe
Zaaki
Mo'unga
Alligator Blood
El Bodegon
My Oberon
I'm Thunderstruck
Mr. Brightside
Top Ranked
I Wish I Win
Duais
Gold Trip
Profondo
Pinstriped
Sharp N Smart
Hinged/Fangirl
speedingaway
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Not poking my head out here but I'd probably take:
Anamoe - proven
Zaaki - past his peak but consistent/tough
My Oberon - obligatory international.
I don't mind the idea of a Top Ranked or Fangirl coming out of an Epsom with a different formline to these. I have serious distance doubts on half the field that ran in the Underwood.
Anamoe - proven
Zaaki - past his peak but consistent/tough
My Oberon - obligatory international.
I don't mind the idea of a Top Ranked or Fangirl coming out of an Epsom with a different formline to these. I have serious distance doubts on half the field that ran in the Underwood.
iluvparis
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The Epsom is the worst cp lead up on the planet. Pointless using it to find df. I like top ranked as a horse but he is a pure miler and milers go to the Cox Plate and get kicked in the mouth. Fangirl couldn’t win if it started today.
Anamoe is basically a moral unless IWIW turns out to be the second coming
Anamoe is basically a moral unless IWIW turns out to be the second coming
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except Winx...and Pinker Pinker..
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