Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

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Lethality

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This is part 3 of this thread.

Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/


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It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is possibly being forced on the rest of us. I hope that this leads to the end of unsanitary cruel treatment of animals over there, but it probably won't.

Australian stats page:



Updated Australian stats:

 
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knife

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Because COVID after 4 months has 111 deaths. If I multiply that by 3 that would give me an annual number of 333 covid deaths as compared to 1,500-3,000 from the flu each year.
Because COVID after 4 months there are 10,500 cases. If I multiply that by 3, we have 31,500 annual cases of covid as compared to 300,000 cases of flu.

And the flu this year is apparently virtually eradicated.

I must be the stupidest campaigner on this site because I can't understand any of it and urgently need some re-education
There are stats from the Federal Government showing the lab tested confirmed influenza cases in Australia each year. You can further drill down to the monthly and state numbers as well.

You can find these at http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_3_sel.cfm

and here is a nice PDF with monthly breakdowns for 2020 and the previous 5 years https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/13Jul-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

Last year there were 313,085 lab confirmed cases of the Influenza for Australia (which was a record high) for 902 confirmed deaths, a ~0.2881% death rate. 2018 we had 58,858 lab confirmed cases for 148 deaths (~0.25% death rate), and 2017 we had 251,151 cases for 1181 deaths (~0.47% death rate). Right now we've had 20823 lab confirmed influenza cases for all of Australia in 2020. July 2019 we had 70151 cases, half way through July 2020 and we've had 34 confirmed so far this month. My understanding is we are testing all covid test samples for Influenza as well.

Stats from https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm and https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/1-Barr-ASM-2020-presentation.pdf

For Covid-19, we've had 10510 cases so far this year for 111 deaths, which is a ~1.05% death rate but that is based on numbers where there are still more than 2500 people with the virus and an unknown outcome, including 111 in hospital and 28 in an ICU. If you discount those cases and look at those with an outcome so far, the death rate increases to ~1.38%.

Covid seems to be see ~20% of cases to end up in Hospital, which is higher than the percentage of people getting hospitalized with the Flu.

So based on that, Covid-19 has a death rate that is ~4.8 times worse than last years Influenza strains in Australia (at this time). If a similar number of people got Covid in a year as got the flu last year, that death rate would lead to around 4300 deaths, which would be a top 10 cause of Death in Australia, roughly matching the deaths from diabetes and from other respiratory diseases, and ahead of suicide, breast and pancreatic cancer, heart failure, accidental falls, hypertension, kidney failure, liver disease, most of which aren't infectious with exponential growth potential (this is based on 2017 figures, the latest I could find in detail https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths/data)

On top of that we can vaccinate against many strains of Influenza, we generally know how to best treat and recover from it, and we know the general complications of the virus. Unfortunately we don't yet have a vaccine, proven treatments that help to prevent or mitigate symptoms (like Tami-flu with Influenza) or prevent death from Covid-19, or know the long term consequences to the body from Covid-19.

That's why it is far too simplistic to simply compare Influenza and Covid and assume it's similar. We know the death rate is worse, we know the hospitalization rate is worse, and we know from the experience in other countries, if a major outbreak occurs, it'll put enormous strain on the health system which could be overwhelmed and will lead to a increasing percentage of deaths.
 

medusala

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That's why it is far too simplistic to simply compare Influenza and Covid and assume it's similar. We know the death rate is worse, we know the hospitalization rate is worse, and we know from the experience in other countries, if a major outbreak occurs, it'll put enormous strain on the health system which could be overwhelmed and will lead to a increasing percentage of deaths.
No we dont. Its very hard to know due to asymptomatic cases. It may well be less than that of the flu.

The UK which has a VERY average health system wasnt overwhelmed (the reason for them panicking and introducing lockdown).
 

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SaintsSeptember

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There are links in the preivous posts to australian government sites: the flu is down to unprecedented levels. And COvid deaths at 111 over 4 months is annualised 333 - no where near annual flu deaths from 1000 to 3000 each year.

Being as totally stupid as I am, I may have got something wrong please point it out for me.
Yes you are, and for the same reason its not worth trying to explain it to you.
It makes no difference how delusional you are.
 

RudyBlue

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It’s worth noting that we were heading towards a post growth world economy prior to the pandemic albeit slowly. This crisis has provided an opportunity to move away from an economic model that will ultimately be proved to be unsustainable anyway.
Elaborate
 

Anja_Nees

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There are stats from the Federal Government showing the lab tested confirmed influenza cases in Australia each year. You can further drill down to the monthly and state numbers as well.

You can find these at http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_3_sel.cfm

and here is a nice PDF with monthly breakdowns for 2020 and the previous 5 years https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/13Jul-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

Last year there were 313,085 lab confirmed cases of the Influenza for Australia (which was a record high) for 902 confirmed deaths, a ~0.2881% death rate. 2018 we had 58,858 lab confirmed cases for 148 deaths (~0.25% death rate), and 2017 we had 251,151 cases for 1181 deaths (~0.47% death rate). Right now we've had 20823 lab confirmed influenza cases for all of Australia in 2020. July 2019 we had 70151 cases, half way through July 2020 and we've had 34 confirmed so far this month. My understanding is we are testing all covid test samples for Influenza as well.

Stats from https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm and https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/1-Barr-ASM-2020-presentation.pdf

For Covid-19, we've had 10510 cases so far this year for 111 deaths, which is a ~1.05% death rate but that is based on numbers where there are still more than 2500 people with the virus and an unknown outcome, including 111 in hospital and 28 in an ICU. If you discount those cases and look at those with an outcome so far, the death rate increases to ~1.38%.

Covid seems to be see ~20% of cases to end up in Hospital, which is higher than the percentage of people getting hospitalized with the Flu.

So based on that, Covid-19 has a death rate that is ~4.8 times worse than last years Influenza strains in Australia (at this time). If a similar number of people got Covid in a year as got the flu last year, that death rate would lead to around 4300 deaths, which would be a top 10 cause of Death in Australia, roughly matching the deaths from diabetes and from other respiratory diseases, and ahead of suicide, breast and pancreatic cancer, heart failure, accidental falls, hypertension, kidney failure, liver disease, most of which aren't infectious with exponential growth potential (this is based on 2017 figures, the latest I could find in detail https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths/data)

On top of that we can vaccinate against many strains of Influenza, we generally know how to best treat and recover from it, and we know the general complications of the virus. Unfortunately we don't yet have a vaccine, proven treatments that help to prevent or mitigate symptoms (like Tami-flu with Influenza) or prevent death from Covid-19, or know the long term consequences to the body from Covid-19.

That's why it is far too simplistic to simply compare Influenza and Covid and assume it's similar. We know the death rate is worse, we know the hospitalization rate is worse, and we know from the experience in other countries, if a major outbreak occurs, it'll put enormous strain on the health system which could be overwhelmed and will lead to a increasing percentage of deaths.
Well done. And of course it spreads more quickly too.
 

Austoraisetheurn

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Please tell me your experience in Banking risk, from practical working experience. Anything below the CEO salary is not in the multi millions the RC put a stop to that and rightly so when the "bonus" culture based on sales and commission was destroyed.

The banks loan to each other, do they really? There's a shitload of difference between lending and guarantees, again please tell me your practical experience and provide proof, you've stated it the onus is on you to prove it.

Come on name them, I was working in the treasury section and whilst there were pressures, none of the Big 4 were on the brink of collapse which 2008 profit figures prove.

WTF are we paying tax for, do you mean none of our taxes fund spending, then where does income tax go, where the the GST go? Hookers and Blow?

This might come as a shock but Australian banks aren't owned by individuals, so who are these "big wigs" that can make money at the stroke of a keyboard, you've stated it name one/some that can artificially create wealth like that in this country

I will agree with you though that the housing sector is overvalued, so those paper values will drop, "but" if they do they will rebound quickly as the bargain hunters will push the prices up again very quickly similar to what happened in 20018-2019

Seriously take off the tin foil hat and stop howling at the 5G towers, if you wish to make outlandish statements then PROVE IT.

You've used the word stroking a few times haven't you, might be time to take your hand off/out of it "champ" "pal" "slick" "buddy"

I've been doing this for 35 years across major Australian and one global banks, again please tell me your practical inside working experience
I have no practical experience in banking. However, i am a very keen reader. I have read a lot about the GFC and the way banks 'create' money when they make loans blew my mind and my understanding of the financial sector.

So why did NAB and Westpac have to borrow billions from the US Federal reserve in 2008? The cynical part of me might think that they were on the verge of going belly up? Or at least to shore up their position that was going south. Who woulda thunk it?

Not this treasury pen pusher with 35 years experience doing stuff knows what and stealing a wage for it!

Of course, if you pay your tax, the very nature of paying tax means that money has to already exist for the payment to be made. Does it not?

If i am self employed as a male escort, and i have a tax bill of $500. Then i pay my $500 to your department. You have taken $500 off me. But there is no net gain of $500. $500 has just been redistributed.

Tax does not fund spending. The above proves it. Of course, accounting tricks and the GST is all just political spin to try and bend states over a barrel.

Sit down before you hurt yourself.
 

RudyBlue

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No we dont. Its very hard to know due to asymptomatic cases. It may well be less than that of the flu.

The UK which has a VERY average health system wasnt overwhelmed (the reason for them panicking and introducing lockdown).
You’re confusing IFR and CFR.

We can compare CFR to CFR.

CFR (corona) > CFR (flu) based on the Australian lab stats above.

The flu also causes a lot of asymptomatic infections.
 

Austoraisetheurn

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So that’s an opinion.
Heaps of work in the literature shows people getting their lungs shredded, brain vessels shot out, kidneys smoked and other ailments that are yet to present themselves no doubt.

People thinking this is just a flu have no idea and need to educate themselves about risk.

The economy will still be here 5 years from now. Businesses will rebuild. Those impacted by government shutdowns should be compensated, those struggling with mental health need to be nurtured and supported.

However, your lungs wont regrow, nor will your kidneys, nor will your brain.

All because many weren't willing to put their own self interest aside for a few months.
 

Drummond

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Heaps of work in the literature shows people getting their lungs shredded, brain vessels shot out, kidneys smoked and other ailments that are yet to present themselves no doubt.

People thinking this is just a flu have no idea and need to educate themselves about risk.

The economy will still be here 5 years from now. Businesses will rebuild. Those impacted by government shutdowns should be compensated, those struggling with mental health need to be nurtured and supported.

However, your lungs wont regrow, nor will your kidneys, nor will your brain.

All because many weren't willing to put their own self interest aside for a few months.
All will come out in the wash. Very early days.
 

TubbsFarquhar

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I dont know, there does not seem to be any palatable answers. The answers that spring to mind give me a fu**en head ache.
  • Restrictions and the closure of international borders meant that we were able to contain this early as opposed to Europe and the US, which is why our number of deaths is lower.
  • As a result of restrictions, social distancing and a majority of people doing the right thing, flu cases have also dropped this year
  • If we didn't do anything or didn't act early, we'd be in a similar situation to other places where it has spiralled out of control
 

MrKK

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The UK likewise has had two mild winters and less than normal flu deaths. Thus many people survived that ordinarily would not have. If the northern hemisphere has a bad winter there could be utter chaos in some countries.
Or Covid has picked off a lot of the survivors from the last two flu seasons?
 

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medusala

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Or Covid has picked off a lot of the survivors from the last two flu seasons?
Yes thats one argument put about.

There is about to be a massive blame game in numerous countries over this. MASSIVE.

Lets say it turns out for argument sake that the fatality rate is close to flu rate and that very large numbers of elderly patients were transferred to hospitals to nursing home and took the virus with them (as they werent tested first). Who cops the blame?

How many deaths were unavoidable? How many were avoided? And as you suggest were excess deaths in the elderly partially / largely responsible due to the last two flu seasons?

If (more like when for a few countries) the stuff hits the fan economically then there IMO will be a reckoning. Politicians will I think hide behind scientest and say "oh but we were following their advice"

In reality I think it will be very hard to definitively prove.
 

medusala

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You’re confusing IFR and CFR.

We can compare CFR to CFR.
There lies the issue. Covid19 is heavily asymptomatic. SARS for example far less so from what I understand.

Seroprevalence tests arent the Godsend that was first thought (though clearly arguments re this). If you cant work out how many people have had the virus then how can you work out the fatality rate?
 

Deliverance

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Yes thats one argument put about.

There is about to be a massive blame game in numerous countries over this. MASSIVE.

Lets say it turns out for argument sake that the fatality rate is close to flu rate and that very large numbers of elderly patients were transferred to hospitals to nursing home and took the virus with them (as they werent tested first). Who cops the blame?

How many deaths were unavoidable? How many were avoided? And as you suggest were excess deaths in the elderly partially / largely responsible due to the last two flu seasons?

If (more like when for a few countries) the stuff hits the fan economically then there IMO will be a reckoning. Politicians will I think hide behind scientest and say "oh but we were following their advice"

In reality I think it will be very hard to definitively prove.
Plenty of people throwing Gladys under the bus for stubbornly refusing to close borders until it was too late or Dan for bungling the hotels. That's for sure.
 

freebloke

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It’s worth noting that we were heading towards a post growth world economy prior to the pandemic albeit slowly. This crisis has provided an opportunity to move away from an economic model that will ultimately be proved to be unsustainable anyway.
Elaborate
I think there is plenty of growth left in the world. In the end, it is population growth that drives growth. So, once this pandemic is over (even the Spanish flu finished at some point), the population growth will result in overall growth. Do note that population growth seems to be reaching a ceiling... maybe in some of our late lifetime.

But a study published on Tuesday in The Lancet, the medical journal, has challenged that forecast, with major economic and political implications. The study asserted that the global population could peak at 9.7 billion by 2064 — nearly four decades earlier — and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.

Moreover, the study concluded, the elderly will make up a bigger chunk of the total than foreseen in the U.N. forecast, and the populations of at least 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, could shrink by more than 50 percent. The study also projected significant declines in the working-age populations of China and India, the two most populous countries, portending a weakening in their global economic power.
 

TheGreatBarryB

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Jason mp

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Interesting Abstract-

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z#Abs1

Memory T cells induced by previous pathogens can shape the susceptibility to, and clinical severity of, subsequent infections1. Little is known about the presence of pre-existing memory T cells in humans with the potential to recognize SARS-CoV-2.

In all of them we demonstrated the presence of CD4 and CD8 T cells recognizing multiple regions of the NP protein. We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP.


  • All of the 36 subjects who had recovered from mild or severe COVID-19 had virus-specific T-cells.
  • All of the 23 subjects who had recovered from SARS 17 years ago still produced T cells specific to SARS, and in all cases they were cross-reactive for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and capable of expanding and activating in response to protein fragments from SARS-CoV-2.
  • Half of the 37 subjects who were unexposed had existing T cell immunity to COVID-19, that could not be explained by exposure to coronaviruses that cause the common cold and might instead be explained by exposure to other coronaviruses harbored by animals.
 

mcnulty

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There’s a Space Race type vibe to this vaccine quest, so I think we’re more likely to have several than none. I’m a bit sceptical about what I hear in the media though, these companies have share prices to consider.*

*And to preempt the thread’s resident loons, no I don’t think that means it’s a conspiracy.
 
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parsons nose

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Given that global economic prosperity is tied non-renewable resources, it’s only a matter of time before we adopt a different approach regarding our behaviour. We can have this adjustment forced upon through the depletion of resources or when can start planning for a transition away from our current practices by adopting renewable energy resources, consuming less and realising that the most important things in life are family and community and not status and ego.
 

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