Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

Bradesmaen

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Testing and false positives. Run along Calimero.

[/QUOTE]
Hahahaha.

Step 1: deny science
Step 2: insult people

Classic medusala.

People are tested more than once.
 

Evolved1

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What about 60 and 70 year olds?

You'd be happy putting your mum and dad up first for the necessary sacrifice, I take it?
My parents are in that high risk age bracket and I have a couple medical workers in my family, so I have skin in the game there.

I don't like the way that question is framed because it's based on a fantasy that doesn't exist in the real world. If I sacrifice my parents to the god of COVID19, will it be appeased? How do you expect me to answer?
 

Evolved1

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He seems to be an idiot on some kind of mission. Repeatedly copying and pasting numbers that are publically available but actually meaningless.

Numbers of cases mean nothing. It's a product of how many people are being tested. Most people don't get sick.

Fatalities is also a pointless statistic. The only metric that makes sense is 'life years lost'. The average age of fatalities is the about the same or slightly above average life expectancy. Research from the UK and Italy suggests the overwhelming majority of their fatalities would have died within the year anyway.

Compare to deaths due to Coronavirus lockdowns. Someone delaying diagnosis and treatment for cancer might lose 40 years. One missed cancer detection might result in a greater loss than accounted for by 30 people in aged care homes slipping away a month early.
I've seen a few people frame the issue in terms of quality adjusted life years.
 

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Evolved1

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Part of the social contract involves us sharing the burden of risk across society. It's an uncomfortable truth that my loved ones are no more important than yours or anyone else's.

Should my neighbour lose his home because his business was shutdown by the government lockdown, have his kids miss a vital year of education due to school closures? Those things will take years off their lives but it's not as obvious as my grandmother surviving another year because she didn't catch COVID-19. Sensible governments have to balance these things.
Sensible government is an oxymoron.
 

Evolved1

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if Golden Sky likes to call people who would like to save lives and halt the spread of the virus "CovidCrazies", then surely its appropriate to call him and his ilk names:
"MassMurdering"
"CovidKillers" seems just as fair.
I've been called worse on bigfooty. Lift your game! :p
 

Evolved1

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Lol Scomo is to blame for the disaster in the most left wing city of Australia. I guess NSW and QLD don't have elderly people.

Thanks for at least trying though.
@Clems Knee posted that Victoria have a disproportionately high number of RWNJ's; second highest in Australia if I remember right. Why would you hold Dan Andrews to account when you can blame RWNJ dickheads or Scomo?
 

Evolved1

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those with permits are either working in the local area, or have family there. that should indicate some kind of ties and actually giving a sh*t (and making sure you manage the risks accordingly)

idiots who decide to go to Orbost for a break while waiting for test results are the problem here, because they dont give two fu**s about anyone in regional victoria as their own needs always take priority
Do you have stats on Melbournians waiting for test results who are trying to get into country Vic?

The 'dickhead' narrative is getting out of hand. This isn't your A game, Ned.
 

Evolved1

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My post was clearly about Golden Sky’s name calling. That is stupid and a poor reflection on the (lack of) intelligence of that poster.

As for your post, you think the lockdown is to protect 0.1%? That’s really clueless. The fatality rate is probably 6-10 times that. On top of that, the very high transmission rate of this virus means that the health system will quickly collapse with uncontrolled transmission (we have seen aged care homes and hospitals suffering from lack of health staff in 3 states in the past few weeks).
The population of Victoria are being locked down to protect a sizeable minority at the least. It’s also being locked down to enable a situation where the whole of Australia can open up. And then the Nation's economy will be able to recover.

What will stop Australia’s recovery is subverting behaviour by selfish people, people exhausted by the lockdown and the deliberate agitation of the extreme right wing.
Death rate as a percentage of total population in Sweden seems to have topped off at 0.06%.
 

Evolved1

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I can provide you with part of the answer.

The figures are obviously far greater than any other state because VIC had a small (on the global scale) outbreak.
The reason for the outbreak was not hotel security guards (NSW, WA and SA have them too) nor was it their behavior (again all states had breaches- NSW even had a few guards catch it).
The reason Vic had a true outbreak is it got seeded into the wrong community.
A community with huge families, language barriers, shitloads of crims, lots of abattoir workers and a culture of blokes kissing each other hello.
Add to this a religious festival at just the wrong time and we arrive at where we are now.

Ahhh you say but NSW has the same communities!
This is true.
Why they haven't had the same outbreak (yet) could be down to any number of factors.
Interesting pov. Not sure whether I agree or disagree yet, but it's something different for a change. :thumbsu:
 

Evolved1

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I caught an interview with Joe Biden, where he did not utter a single coherent phrase, sentence or idea. And yes, Trump ain't much better. I watch Daniel Andrews press conferences and nothing he says bears any corresponding relationship to reality. What kind of pandemic can be denied and requires a test? A pandemic that if you catch it, might kill you if your old, have other serious health issues, and are unlucky. Why do our government and media believe it appropriate to scare the public during a pandemic?

The models justifying the pandemic have all proven to be exponential exaggerations. The deaths that are recorded are mired in obscurity causes (with or without). A pandemic should leave no room for disputation. No argument about life expectancy. No arguments about y.o.y mortality rates.

The meaning of the word pandemic has changed into something completely different. And we have changed with it.

For the last decade, we have witnessed a growth in unhinged emotional outbursts. It is fashionable to be outraged, angry, critical, and scathing towards someone or some group without even the pretense of any rationality. Labels are thrown around like confetti: nazi, racist, tin foil hat, conspiracy theorist, climate change denier, anti-vaccer, sexist, homophobe... The list seems to expand by the week.

Nothing good can come possibly from this locked-in tit for tat escalation and COVID is only the latest iteration of this pattern.
A Biden presidency is practically begging for a GWB/Cheney arrangement. Trump is the devil you know so I'm not sure what's worse.
 

TheGreatBarryB

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That's how strong the new far-left-religion is - and Lockdown, as it is increasingly criticised by the mainstream and normal (ie "the far right" to them), is the new God.
Victorian plan is based on National cabinets suppression strategy to have zero community transmission. Is National cabinet left wing?

Morrison said national cabinet had for “many months” been working towards the goal of suppression with “no community transmission”, arguing eradication is not possible because “there will always be cases that come because Australia has not completely shut itself off from the world”.

 

parsons nose

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Yes there is. The death rate for anyone under 60 without a major health condition are tiny. Extraordinarily so. Only a few hundred people in the UK in that category have died from of a population of circa 65m. There is BS modelling that govts rely on (and try to scare people with) then there is the actual EVIDENCE.

If you are worried then lock yourself away. Its a bit rich however to tell others they should do the same.
I see you’re looking at the death rate only. The prospect of being hospitalised or incapacitated for weeks is what worries lots of people and we still don’t have accurate figures on these cases. So deaths are not the sole concern with this disease.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Do you have stats on Melbournians waiting for test results who are trying to get into country Vic?

The 'dickhead' narrative is getting out of hand. This isn't your A game, Ned.
I used that one as an example because it actually did happen. Also the stat was off mem about 15% of people kept working in early days of this wave even though they were infected. And of course 30% of people tested at chaddy either went shopping before their test or straight after their test.

A small but decent sized percentage of this community has had contempt for this virus because "it's just the flu"
 

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mcnulty

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The thousands of extra ICU beds in Australia for Covid-19 haven't been used either. And they don't come cheap.
Defence forces don’t come cheap either. And you hope they’re never used.

But those actually responsible for the decisions also need to consider contingencies. In the early stages of a pandemic.

Still seem to be stuck in this circular argument. ”See it wasn’t so bad!!! We didn’t need to do all that!”. It didn’t get that bad because...
 

TheGreatBarryB

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Who knows Sweden’s true figures when Tegnell resorts to this

As Science Mag noted in May, Sweden missed an opportunity to “definitively answer the question” about infections in schools because “officials have not tracked infections among schoolchildren — even when large outbreaks led to the closure of individual schools”.

Mr Begg says the report draws the conclusion there is no difference in the overall incidence of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, cases but fails to mention Sweden’s leading epidemiologist Anders Tegnell paused the collection of data from children because he thought it would create anxiety among the public.
 

Crankyhawk

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Victoria’s second wave started because of the selfishness of returned travellers avoiding lockdown protocols as well as failures in the hotel quarantine system.

The contact tracing was limited by the time lag between the escape of the virus from hotels and its recognition. But the reason Victoria went into lockdown was that numbers of cases were increasing above 700 and continuing to increase despite the measures at the time. If there was complete compliance with those measures, there would have been no need to lockdown. Why wasn’t there complete compliance? I would argue that misinformation had a significant role to play. The extreme right wing have been very active in pushing conspiracy theories and downright lying to people.
I don’t think right wing activity is as much a contributor as general lockdown fatigue leading to lower compliance in the repeat stage 3.
 

Crankyhawk

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That's the funniest post I've read this year. The cult of Dan is worse than I suspected.
No I was also confused about how calling for an investigation is a dumb political move. There can only be accountability through transparency- now if the finding is systemic failures that usually ends up meaning no individual is at fault.
Then system is changed to address shortcomings (and open up different vulnerabilities)
I see this a lot in medical error/ quality review it is system design issues not deliberate mismanagement 99.9% of the time .
 

Crankyhawk

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True, but I could have managed the hotel quarantine better than the Andrews government and I have no expertise in that field.

How hard is it to call in experts, perform a risk assessment, and oversee a project? How anyone can justify mistakes made by the Victorian government while blaming dickheads for the problems in Melbourne is something I find difficult to understand.
I don’t think there were many experts around in designing a hotel quarantine system and there were significant time pressures. Time pressure leads to errors.
 

Crankyhawk

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Crankyhawk

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That's a really informative article. :thumbsu:

I think Australia and New Zealand have committed to the eradication strategy while the rest of the world has moved on from it. Professor Sunetra Gupta had a interesting take on that.

Alastair: So you think that the New Zealand approach, eradicating the virus, is both functionally silly and also immoral?​
Well, I don’t know whether I’d go so far as to say it’s immoral. It seems to be very short-sighted, how can it possibly keep the virus out?​
I think the smugness, the self-congratulation with which it’s presented is misplaced. The self-righteous attitude is completely ridiculous. If it turns out that the rest of the world, through herd immunity or vaccination, manages to reduce the risk of infection, then what New Zealand will have done would be tantamount to not vaccinating your own child. Just waiting for everyone else to vaccinate their children and then go “ok it’s all safe now”.
The challenge is how do you sell a change from eradication to suppression. We (Australia) didn’t intend to get eradication but a couple of states did then they kept borders shut which forced the other states to aim towards near eradication just to re open borders.
 

Deliverance

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So much winning with lockdowns. Can't wait to see the August results. But any future cancer deaths won't be shown in daily press conferences in decades to come.


HoW aBouT wE pUt pRo lockDownERs lAST on thE cANcer TreatmeNT WAitINg liST?

The cure is worse than the disease.
 

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