Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

COVIDSafe App - Will you download?

  • Yes - I already have

    Votes: 32 37.2%
  • Yes - I will in time

    Votes: 5 5.8%
  • No

    Votes: 49 57.0%

  • Total voters
    86

Lethality

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It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is possibly being forced on the rest of us. I hope that this leads to the end of unsanitary cruel treatment of animals over there, but it probably won't.

Australian stats page:



Updated Australian stats:

 
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Carringbush2010

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I just have the shitty symptoms you know bit of a fever, well more chills I would say a cough and shitty throat and a bit of fatigue that sort of came on pretty suddenly really yesterday. I’m a firefighter and the last thing they want is wiping a whole crew or even worse station out so it’s straight to the clinic.
Just feels like having a cold and in all likelihood that all it probably is. Blood pressure was a bit high at today’s testing too.
We need you fighting fires Danger, get well soon bud! The world needs you.
 

Abba Lonie

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And what if that underlying condition was the cause of death not cv or a combination of? People with pre existing conditions like pneumonia don't usually get another 30 years down the track.
I’m not talking about acute stuff, more the really underlying stuff that otherwise has no impact on their daily life but the rona hits and then bang they’re dead.
 

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Clems Knee

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No do you? How are we supposed to know what the actual cause of death is / was? Or are we just supposed to accept that the cause of death was cv?
Cause of death is anoxia. Pretty much always.

It’s probably better in cases of underlying disorders or among the aged to look at it statistically.
Of those with CoVid-19 who died, how many would have statistically still been alive in a year?
Eg 10,000 died. Because of their age or condition 2,000 would have died anyway. So the disease is responsible for 8,000 deaths. This would also work if the people who died weren’t tested. Compare the number of deaths in a population to the normal number of deaths. Difference (assuming no other cause) is deaths attributable to the pandemic.
 

Rodney Dangerfield

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We need you fighting fires Danger, get well soon bud! The world needs you.
Plenty of others around! It’s actually quite staggering a lot haven’t been infected yet if you can imagine a fire station. It’s just basically living with a group of people you can’t really avoid, sharing facilities 24/7 day and night and then swapping out with another group!
 

Carringbush2010

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We are lucky.

Let’s see how the next few weeks go with community transmission and hope the good news continues.

In the meantime, we need our best and brightest minds working out how we can best co-exist with this virus until a vaccine comes around.
The 'co exist' is the big part, boil it down and dissect it, analyze it, study it, pull it apart and review it, the sad fact is the worlds states are going to have to at some point choose between two devastating evils, pandemic or economic devastation. Either either there'll be deaths aplenty.:'( The states are going to have to weigh up which is the better option.

My uneducated guess is that the latter will have far more deadly effect.
 

Carringbush2010

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Cause of death is anoxia. Pretty much always.

It’s probably better in cases of underlying disorders or among the aged to look at it statistically.
Of those with CoVid-19 who died, how many would have statistically still been alive in a year?
Eg 10,000 died. Because of their age or condition 2,000 would have died anyway. So the disease is responsible for 8,000 deaths. This would also work if the people who died weren’t tested. Compare the number of deaths in a population to the normal number of deaths. Difference (assuming no other cause) is deaths attributable to the pandemic.
1/ What was the cause of the anoxia? Is this being investigated? And why aren't we being told one way or the other? My guess is the spread is so quick there is no time to autopsy every single person that has died whether or not from cv. So IF anyone dies and has a contraction of cv it seems we're told it's a cv death regardless. Possibly inaccurate. Unless you can point out that those who die and have cv is wholly and solely because of cv.

2/ You're speculating, if anyone looks at the (supposed) mortality rate it does not equate with your 80%
 

Cmarsh

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The 'co exist' is the big part, boil it down and dissect it, analyze it, study it, pull it apart and review it, the sad fact is the worlds states are going to have to at some point choose between two devastating evils, pandemic or economic devastation. Either either there'll be deaths aplenty.:'( The states are going to have to weigh up which is the better option.

My uneducated guess is that the latter will have far more deadly effect.
I believe there are going to be some big, big ethical dilemmas that nations will need to decide upon. There will be differences of opinion aplenty, particularly future human health of the vulnerable Vs long term economic prosperity for society as you allude to. Those opinions will be largely drawn on political and ideological lines.

It's going to be very messy.
 

owen87

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We take what precautions we can - like the Swedish have to date.
I counsel courage not stupidity.
The Swedish who are running at a Fatality rate of 69% of closed cases you mean? Yep they’re a real model to follow right there.

How would you broaden the testing criteria?
Depends on restrictions on testing kits, S Korea mass drive through testing would be amazing.

But certainly looser restrictions, I had a friend who had many of the symptoms but no overseas travel or contact with a confirmed case so wasn’t tested. Not sure if it’s changed since then, but the numbers of tests we’re processing aren’t high enough in my opinion, given the risk of community spread and limited information we have as to what’s going on in the community.

Why does someone have to die wholly and solely from covid-19 for them to count?
Technically the disease itself doesn’t actually kill the person, so people arguing “but they died of pneumonia” are being disingenuous. Some allowance needs to be made where someone is critically ill anyway, but there’s little doubt that given comorbidities include things like asthma and hypertension, that many people who have died wouldn’t have been dead within a year otherwise.

Finally, we have a country applying commonsense.

A random test results for COVID have been completed in Iceland

Result 0.6% of the there population is infected.
Population 342,000
around Cases 2,000
Deaths 6 so far 11 in critical condition
50% are asymptomatic


If 0.6% were consistent across all countries
Australia would have 144,000 infected
Half would be asymptomatic
49 dead so far 93 in critical condition

It's not looking good for the hysterical
You are genuinely incapable of understanding statistics, and I truly hope that you’re at least hiding in a basement somewhere posting this stuff and not out on the streets jeopardising other peoples health.
 

Clems Knee

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1/ What was the cause of the anoxia? Is this being investigated? And why aren't we being told one way or the other? My guess is the spread is so quick there is no time to autopsy every single person that has died whether or not from cv. So IF anyone dies and has a contraction of cv it seems we're told it's a cv death regardless. Possibly inaccurate. Unless you can point out that those who die and have cv is wholly and solely because of cv.

2/ You're speculating, if anyone looks at the (supposed) mortality rate it does not equate with your 80%
No. anoxia is the cause. If our cells don’t get oxygen they die. And then so do we.
My point is that there hasn’t been time or accuracy to know why all these extra people are dying in every case. Nobody did autopsies on the dead in the Black Death either. But we know how many extra people died.
Same here. Statistics will sort out the natural rates of mortality from the 2020 rates.

I made the numbers up, to illustrate how it could be done. Obviously. And 80% mortality rate? Those numbers suggest no such thing.

Unless you are trying to twist the figures to suit a preordained result, trying to limit the cause of death to solely CoVid-19 is illogical.
It’s like claiming that the coward puncher didn’t kill the kid, it was the concrete he hit his head on.
 

Roby

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Is this directed at me?
No. Fixed.


No do you? How are we supposed to know what the actual cause of death is / was? Or are we just supposed to accept that the cause of death was cv?
I do.

Unless a coroners report is competed (and even in those cases it may not be clear) then it's a multitude of causes put on a death certificate unless it's clear.

For example, if you tested for Covid-19 but on the way home you were involved in a car accident because a truck ran over and decapitated you the cause would be trauma and sudden death from decapitation due to a vehicle collision.

If you had Covid-19 and hypertension but then developed pneumonia but was still breathing when your one kidney stop functioning causing sepsis which then caused say cardiac arrhythmia and then your heart stopped and you died.

You could say the deceased contracted Covid-19 which caused cytokine inflammation and a pneumonia. Three days later the deceased developed sepsis (unknown cause) kidney failure and a pre-existing hypertension most likely chasers cardiac arrhythmia and heart failure. It is the view that the deceased died due to contracting Covid-19 and with pre-existing hypertension and one kidney resulted in multiple organ failure and ultimately cardiac arrest.
 

mcnulty

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Sweden look like they’re in trouble. So far 114 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, spiralling numbers. They have far more deaths now than countries with a similar number of reported infections, even though their health system is world class.

Wonder if there’ll be a change of tack- looks like they might have got this one horribly wrong. Unlike them.
 

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Roby

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The Swedish who are running at a Fatality rate of 69% of closed cases you mean? Yep they’re a real model to follow right there.
Sweden look like they’re in trouble. So far 114 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, spiralling numbers. They have far more deaths now than countries with a similar number of reported infections, even though their health system is world class.

Wonder if there’ll be a change of tack- looks like they might have got this one horribly wrong. Unlike them.
I've been talking about Sweden for a week and rightly so. They may eventually be the worst country in the world soon.

They're 12th in the world for deaths per population. They get as many visitors as Australia.
 

yebiga

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The Swedish who are running at a Fatality rate of 69% of closed cases you mean? Yep they’re a real model to follow right there.



Depends on restrictions on testing kits, S Korea mass drive through testing would be amazing.

But certainly looser restrictions, I had a friend who had many of the symptoms but no overseas travel or contact with a confirmed case so wasn’t tested. Not sure if it’s changed since then, but the numbers of tests we’re processing aren’t high enough in my opinion, given the risk of community spread and limited information we have as to what’s going on in the community.



Technically the disease itself doesn’t actually kill the person, so people arguing “but they died of pneumonia” are being disingenuous. Some allowance needs to be made where someone is critically ill anyway, but there’s little doubt that given comorbidities include things like asthma and hypertension, that many people who have died wouldn’t have been dead within a year otherwise.



You are genuinely incapable of understanding statistics, and I truly hope that you’re at least hiding in a basement somewhere posting this stuff and not out on the streets jeopardising other peoples health.
69% fatality in Sweden you reckon? Another month and they will be wiped out.
In the real world, Sweden which has approximately the same population as Belgium has only a quarter of their fatalities.

If you are showing off some multi-dimensional irony - I'm impressed
If you truly believe what you are posting - get me some of them mushrooms.
The stuff you have been posting today is gold.
 

owen87

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69% fatality in Sweden you reckon? Another month and they will be wiped out.
In the real world, Sweden which has approximately the same population as Belgium has only a quarter of their fatalities.

If you are showing off some multi-dimensional irony - I'm impressed
If you truly believe what you are posting - that look get me some of them mushrooms.
The stuff you have been posting today is gold.
Once again demonstrating your complete inability to read comments or statistics.
 

RICHOLEGEND12

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I've said this since the first lockdown argument.....fair chance the suicide/domestic violence will outnumber the virus numbers. But putting a hold on learning to drive is way down on the list of things to approve. Not sure much suicide will occur from withholding a 17 yr old from driving.

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

As I said, not saying that specifically is essential to human well-being. But it is still getting out of the house and doing something productive, which is good. But anyway, what are the chances of spreading/getting the virus taking your 17 year old daughter for a drive?
 

Doss

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69% fatality in Sweden you reckon? Another month and they will be wiped out.
In the real world, Sweden which has approximately the same population as Belgium has only a quarter of their fatalities.

If you are showing off some multi-dimensional irony - I'm impressed
If you truly believe what you are posting - get me some of them mushrooms.
The stuff you have been posting today is gold.
He said 69% of closed cases, not all cases. Surely that is not a difficult distinction to understand.
 

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