Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

[Chief]

This is part 2 of this thread.

PART 3 IS HERE --- >

Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

This is part 3 of this thread. Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/ --------------- It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is...

www.bigfooty.com

Go there for your Pangolin-rich experience /\

 

[Hornberger]

Whilst the protest itself hasn't appeared to be a vector for infection, I think it prompted a shift in the mindset of a lot of people when they were being told competing narratives. Many people I come across seem very unsure about what's expected of them and what to think about the whole situation still.

I am not convinced that the evidence supports that hypothesis.

Firstly, if you look at city wide mapper and google trends, the rate at which mobility was increasing in Melbourne slowed after the Queen’s Birthday Weekend before plateauing the following weekend. This is not what you would expect if BLM really did change people's behaviour.

Secondly, when you look at the case trends the hit rate started to increase around the Queen's Birthday long weekend. This way too soon to have been caused either directly or indirectly by BLM. If that was the case you would have expected to see at a weeks lag between the protest and increasing case trend. This was not the case.



What the data would support is the primary driver in the increase in the number of cases was the replacement of the Stay at home directions (No 7) with the Stay Safe Directions (No 1) on 31 May which permitted larger gatherings at people's residence. This is is consistent with both when (starting around 7 June) and where (primarily in large family groups) that the spike in new cases was first observed.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

VIC update seems delayed today... not even an announcement of when it will take place.

Anyone else a little concerned for what we're about to receive?

 

[Hornberger]

VIC update seems delayed today... not even an announcement of when it will take place.

Anyone else a little concerned for what we're about to receive?

It suggests there is going to be a policy announcement of some sort, and they are still finalising the details. Which of itself is nothing to be worried about.

 

[Rob R]

I am not convinced that the evidence supports that hypothesis.

Firstly, if you look at city wide mapper and google trends, the rate at which mobility was increasing in Melbourne slowed after the Queen’s Birthday Weekend before plateauing the following weekend. This is not what you would expect if BLM really did change people's behaviour.
View attachment 903108
Secondly, when you look at the case trends the hit rate started to increase around the Queen's Birthday long weekend. This way too soon to have been caused either directly or indirectly by BLM. If that was the case you would have expected to see at a weeks lag between the protest and increasing case trend. This was not the case.

View attachment 903116

What the data would support is the primary driver in the increase in the number of cases was the replacement of the Stay at home directions (No 7) with the Stay Safe Directions (No 1) on 31 May which permitted larger gatherings at people's residence. This is is consistent with both when (starting around 7 June) and where (primarily in large family groups) that the spike in new cases was first observed.

Well argued.

It is possibly more likely that the spike is due to the State Govts mismanagement of hotel quarrantines unlike the other states combined with people moving around more.
Whilst I think Dan deserves to be held accountable for his many failures (cedar meats, corruption, flip flopping on adf spt, poor trng of hotel guards, lack of hotel testing, selling out to the CCP, inconsistent covid rules, project blunders etc) in the last couple of months, it is still hard to see what he could have done about the protest, if he banned it, the more feral elements would have turned up anyway and tried to stage violent events to blame the police.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

VIC update seems delayed today... not even an announcement of when it will take place.

Anyone else a little concerned for what we're about to receive?

Probably nothing to worry about, unless you live in Broadmeadows or Pakenham.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

It suggests there is going to be a policy announcement of some sort, and they are still finalising the details. Which of itself is nothing to be worried about.

Yeah. Thinking the same. Glad there's no known cases in my area!

 

[Ghost Patrol]

VIC update seems delayed today... not even an announcement of when it will take place.

Anyone else a little concerned for what we're about to receive?

2pm

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

VIC update seems delayed today... not even an announcement of when it will take place.

Anyone else a little concerned for what we're about to receive?

Word is only 60 cases. Delayed because of the huge ammount of data to sift though

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Word is only 60 cases. Delayed because of the huge ammount of data to sift though

Looks like it's 64

 

[owen87]

Ok, so a protest on TV can change the mindset of a nation, but a multi million dollar ad campaign from the government wont

Interesting concept.

If BLM changed mindset, then why isn't everyone wearing masks?

You're trying to equate 3 different unrelated things here?

I am not convinced that the evidence supports that hypothesis.

Firstly, if you look at city wide mapper and google trends, the rate at which mobility was increasing in Melbourne slowed after the Queen’s Birthday Weekend before plateauing the following weekend. This is not what you would expect if BLM really did change people's behaviour.
View attachment 903108
Secondly, when you look at the case trends the hit rate started to increase around the Queen's Birthday long weekend. This way too soon to have been caused either directly or indirectly by BLM. If that was the case you would have expected to see at a weeks lag between the protest and increasing case trend. This was not the case.

View attachment 903116

What the data would support is the primary driver in the increase in the number of cases was the replacement of the Stay at home directions (No 7) with the Stay Safe Directions (No 1) on 31 May which permitted larger gatherings at people's residence. This is is consistent with both when (starting around 7 June) and where (primarily in large family groups) that the spike in new cases was first observed.

Quality post; may well be correct that the timing was just coincidental that they occurred at a similar time to a number of other restrictions relaxing and people being much less cautious due to those than due to seeing mass gatherings occurring and such.

Certainly anecdotally, as soon as people were allowed to congregate at home or restaurants, I noticed a lot of social media posts where people were gathered in numbers, with no concern regarding distancing from one-another.

 

[Marcel Proust]

The curve

In the USA doesn't look too good

 

[Marcel Proust]

Robert Reich (@RBReich) on Twitter

Robert Reich

@RBReich
·
7h

As Gilead charges $3,120 for its COVID drug, remdesivir, remember that the drug was developed with a $70,000,000 grant from the federal government paid for by American taxpayers. Once again, Big Pharma is set to profit on the people's dime.

 

[Dry Rot]

Some ominous news out of China:

New swine flu with pandemic potential identified by China researchers

Pigs are good mixing vessels to produce human-2-human influenzas. Probably a matter of time before this one does.

2009 H1N1 pandemic was an odd one. Killed relatively few old people but lots of young people. Scared the s**t out of people in the know like myself.

Why?

2009 HiN1 is the grandson of H1N1 Spanish Flu. And if G4 is related to 2009 HiN1, then it could be the second grandson...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...na-researchers

 

[Deliverance]

Maybe, just maybe, cases are rising exactly as was expected when we first started to reopen.

 

[Vaska]

 

[Rob R]

Not a shock, the CCP has already killed 90 million of their own people so what if some die testing a vaccine when they are aiming to get a vaccine out to the world to try and be the heroes when in reality, it would never have spread beyond China if not for Xi's incompetence and indifference for life.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dry Rot]

Watch the Swedish cluster ****

Foreign Correspondent: Series 2020 The Swedish Model - Sweden

Sweden is doing COVID differently. Its high-risk strategy allows cafes, schools and gyms to stay open, trusting citizens to do the right thing. But with over 5000 dead, many are asking - is the Swedish model working?

iview.abc.net.au

 

[Dry Rot]

COVID 19 in northern Spain in early 2019

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Interesting take that smaller number of infected may be spreading it..

Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many? (Published 2020)

Growing evidence shows most infected people aren’t spreading the virus. But whether you become a superspreader probably depends more on circumstance than biology.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

You don't think there was an element of viewing it as 'over' amongst much of the general community once we had a mass protest alongside cafes and restaurants reopening?

Whilst the protest itself hasn't appeared to be a vector for infection, I think it prompted a shift in the mindset of a lot of people when they were being told competing narratives. Many people I come across seem very unsure about what's expected of them and what to think about the whole situation still.

The penny hasn’t dropped that social distancing etc is also the way to reduce colds and flu as well as covid? The whole situation hasn’t changed and needs to continue Indefinitely.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The penny hasn’t dropped that social distancing etc is also the way to reduce colds and flu as well as covid? The whole situation hasn’t changed and needs to continue Indefinitely.

Planet of the introverts.

 

[Hornberger]

Quality post; may well be correct that the timing was just coincidental that they occurred at a similar time to a number of other restrictions relaxing and people being much less cautious due to those than due to seeing mass gatherings occurring and such.

Certainly anecdotally, as soon as people were allowed to congregate at home or restaurants, I noticed a lot of social media posts where people were gathered in numbers, with no concern regarding distancing from one-another.

It is not necessarily a case of these things being just coincidental, it is possible that the BLM were in fact a manifestation of the breakdown in social distancing. There might be a causal link that it goes in the other direction.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Lots of mandatory test chatter

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

73 new cases in Victoria

 

[yebiga]

pan·dem·ic | \ pan-ˈde-mik \
Definition of pandemic
: a disease occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the populati


Since Annual Road Injuries dwarf COVID19 by a factor of x 3 when will we have to give up our cars?
Imagine if we had 24/7 graphic news reports showing mangled bodies arriving in emergency departments? Imagine the impact of family anecdotes.
To end this carnage, all we need do is manufacture vehicles that can't go faster than 60kph and we could save almost 2 million lives each year.

It's amazing that something so logical and simple is not considered but we shut down the global economy because of a virus that is not even half or a third as deadly as the annual carnage on our roads. Forget about it - the megadeath virus is more important.