Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

[Chief]

This is part 2 of this thread.

PART 3 IS HERE --- >

Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

This is part 3 of this thread. Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/ --------------- It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is...

www.bigfooty.com

Go there for your Pangolin-rich experience /\

 

[ExcitementMachine]

London has just 24 new coronavirus cases a day

Capital's lockdown questioned as Public Health England models suggest virus will be wiped out in June

www.telegraph.co.uk

Fewer than 24 people are catching coronavirus each day in London, new modelling suggests, with forecasts predicting the virus could be wiped out in the capital within a fortnight.

Great news. Baltimore jack will be spewing.

 

[Deliverance]

Great news. Baltimore jack will be spewing.

They'd probably need to build a wall around London considering the 3500 new daily cases in The UK.

 

[Chameleon75]

If you get in close contact with a confirmed person who has it will it show up if you do a test the same day after you get in contact?

My sister ran into a similar scenario and was told it wouldn’t show up in test until 3-4 days after you’ve been infected

 

[Clems Knee]

How is it conceivable that a Rockhampton aged care worker went to work after being tested for the virus, but while she was waiting for a positive/negative result?

 

[Deliverance]

How is it conceivable that a Rockhampton aged care worker went to work after being tested for the virus, but while she was waiting for a positive/negative result?

Because they are real estate business. Not health care. Their tennants just happen to be old and frail. I'll be on a plane to Switzerland before moving in to one of those places.

 

[Chief]

Well that’s a worry....

Sailors on sidelined aircraft carrier get coronavirus for second time

Five US sailors on an aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to the pandemic have been diagnosed with the virus for the second time, the US Navy says.

www.theage.com.au

Hopefully that’s a false positive issue.

 

[Visions]

30 new cases. Highest in a month. Why arent we shutting down once again?

Why? The whole country seems to be doing fine. Except for Victoria who have registered three quarters of the cases for the last few weeks, and are still basically in shutdown still compared to everyone else.

 

[Seeds]

Why? The whole country seems to be doing fine. Except for Victoria who have registered three quarters of the cases for the last few weeks, and are still basically in shutdown still compared to everyone else.

But we just got 30 new cases in a day and given this all happened 5 days ago before shutdown policies started being unwound it would suggest we are not doing fine. The virus spreads more in cold weather. we are nearly in winter and the coldest state is victoria.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Read what you've typed before posting, Sarah - "How to more cases..."
What does that even mean?

 

[Evolved1]

The whole goal was to flatten the curve to allow health systems to cope.
Surely everyone acknowledges that opening things up will see a rise in cases again.
Think we can be relatively confident now in our processes around managing it.

We're managing it for the time being because the numbers are still low, but there isn't an endless stream of money to pay a good portion of the population to do nothing.

The processes in place to manage this pandemic haven't really been tested yet.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Read what you've typed before posting, Sarah - "How to more cases..."
What does that even mean?

It's a reference to Trump's dick measuring contest

 

[Crankyhawk]

Somewhere along the line of idealistic thinking, our economy became relevant again.

And we believe we now have processes to track and trace; and those diagnosed will also cooperate

 

[Frank Bunn]

I assume the Labs are still testing for Influenza?

Social Distancing, washing hands, coughing into elbow. Would be nice to know which of these Social Health changes had the most effect on both Covid-19 and Influenza spread.

Maybe many of those measures did not make a significant difference? All countries have done social distancing to some extent. The virus seems to be spread by close contact in an enclosed environment and is much more of a risk for the elderly, those with existing conditions and those with low immunity such as with low Vitamin D levels. The virus has not been passed much by children, or by touching objects. I've not seen evidence that the outdoor social distancing has had a significant impact.

It could be that it is mostly a nosocomial (hospital-acquired) disease. It seems that in the UK and other European countries many people who were already sick have caught the virus after being admitted to hospital for other ailments.

The per capita fatality numbers for different countries in Europe all show a dampening of the rate of growth earlier than you would expect from the lockdowns. Something else is at work not just the lockdown measures.

 

[Clems Knee]

Maybe many of those measures did not make a significant difference? All countries have done social distancing to some extent. The virus seems to be spread by close contact in an enclosed environment and is much more of a risk for the elderly, those with existing conditions and those with low immunity such as with low Vitamin D levels. The virus has not been passed much by children, or by touching objects. I've not seen evidence that the outdoor social distancing has had a significant impact.

It could be that it is mostly a nosocomial (hospital-acquired) disease. It seems that in the UK and other European countries many people who were already sick have caught the virus after being admitted to hospital for other ailments.

The per capita fatality numbers for different countries in Europe all show a dampening of the rate of growth earlier than you would expect from the lockdowns. Something else is at work not just the lockdown measures.

I do think that some analysis needs to be done on which social distancing measure worked best. It may be that that advice is maintained well after we have gone back to normal otherwise. Even the vitamin D stuff hasn’t been confirmed as yet.

Instead, there have been too many papers on Trump’s latest miracle cure. That *er is messing with everyone‘a heads.

We do have enough info to rule out the disease being a hospital acquired one. It’s not like a super resistant Golden Staph. But wet markets, Abattoirs and hospitals probably all share common features that will make beating transmission easier as we learn more about it.

 

[Rotayjay]

South Australia free of COVID-19.

To be a hundred percent frank it feels like a hollow victory because more cases are inevitable, and we in Australia have been spared suffering and death that has swept the world. Plus we had to ruin the economy to save lives.

 

[Gameova_]

My sister ran into a similar scenario and was told it wouldn’t show up in test until 3-4 days after you’ve been infected

So very unlikely the same person who ran into someone else who has it would give it to somebody else the same day not longafter?

 

[Chameleon75]

So very unlikely the same person who ran into someone else who has it would give it to somebody else the same day not longafter?

I wouldn’t think so, but call the Covid hotline, they should be able to advise you.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I do think that some analysis needs to be done on which social distancing measure worked best. It may be that that advice is maintained well after we have gone back to normal otherwise. Even the vitamin D stuff hasn’t been confirmed as yet.

Instead, there have been too many papers on Trump’s latest miracle cure. That f***er is messing with everyone‘a heads.

We do have enough info to rule out the disease being a hospital acquired one. It’s not like a super resistant Golden Staph. But wet markets, Abattoirs and hospitals probably all share common features that will make beating transmission easier as we learn more about it.

Statistically as soon as any social distancing happened, the transmissibility decreases.
If its 2.5 in Italy, "good to see ya again dude...hug hug smaaaack on the lips " what is it in Australia with no mass events , and a general policy of social distancing in shops and workplaces.
If its less than 1, its all we need to do.

We never got a real chance to see the effect of that before the whole thing escalated.

 

[Clems Knee]

Statistically as soon as any social distancing happened, the transmissibility decreases.
If its 2.5 in Italy, "good to see ya again dude...hug hug smaaaack on the lips " what is it in Australia with no mass events , and a general policy of social distancing in shops and workplaces.
If its less than 1, its all we need to do.

We never got a real chance to see the effect of that before the whole thing escalated.

So do I keep 1.5m away, 2m away or is 1m away enough?
Can we fit 1 per 4 square metres or could we do just as well with 1.5 per 4 square metres?
Is physical touching no good, or handshakes only if you touch your face afterwards?
How much does consciously trying not to touch your face affect the transmission of corona or flu viruses?
Is washing your hands with soap and water often the magic bullet, or did it have little effect?
How much does a mask help stop the spread?
What about regular cleaning of surfaces, is that helping or is it a waste of time and money?
Or is that stuff all a waste of time and the only importantly thing was staying away of you have the slightest sniffle?

If we knew the answers to this, we might not have to go into full lockdown when there is a flare up, and have a response which is not as intrusive as the self isolations that were promoted a couple of months ago. Put together they worked well, but if we can get the same outcome with less intrusion, that would be awesome.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Swine flu was from Texas

Wasn't it from Mexico?

 

[drd23]

So do I keep 1.5m away, 2m away or is 1m away enough?
Can we fit 1 per 4 square metres or could we do just as well with 1.5 per 4 square metres?
Is physical touching no good, or handshakes only if you touch your face afterwards?
How much does consciously trying not to touch your face affect the transmission of corona or flu viruses?
Is washing your hands with soap and water often the magic bullet, or did it have little effect?
How much does a mask help stop the spread?
What about regular cleaning of surfaces, is that helping or is it a waste of time and money?
Or is that stuff all a waste of time and the only importantly thing was staying away of you have the slightest sniffle?

If we knew the answers to this, we might not have to go into full lockdown when there is a flare up, and have a response which is not as intrusive as the self isolations that were promoted a couple of months ago. Put together they worked well, but if we can get the same outcome with less intrusion, that would be awesome.

Problem is that it would be really hard to ethically devise a controlled study to test these things, especially not in a time scale that would help now or in an environment where there are government mandated rules that are stricter than the most lenient "normal" option.

You can really only look back at observational data, and given most countries seem to have gone down the same route it will be hard to tease out what matters and what doesn't. Looking at Sweden, and what different groups of people did would be a start as some apparently lived a fairly "normal" life while others would have gone into self-imposed lockdown akin to the rest of the world.

Afterwards, when life is back to "normal" if might be feasible to recruit a group of people to take measures similar to what you are suggesting (i.e. wear a mask, or be observed and see how often they touch their face etc), and compare to a control group

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

So do I keep 1.5m away, 2m away or is 1m away enough? I'm thinking the duration is just as important, plus whether it's a small room, or outdoors.
Can we fit 1 per 4 square metres or could we do just as well with 1.5 per 4 square metres? Same as above.
Is physical touching no good, or handshakes only if you touch your face afterwards? Not touching your face is the key here and keep a bottle of sanitiser in your pocket. Again, it's the duration of the contact.
How much does consciously trying not to touch your face affect the transmission of corona or flu viruses? The viruses enter the body via the mucus membranes of the mouth, nose and eyes, so it's worth making the effort.
Is washing your hands with soap and water often the magic bullet, or did it have little effect? I think it's definitely a great benefit. There are, regrettably, those who don't bother washing hands even after going to the toilet so we have all been forced to think about it a lot more.
How much does a mask help stop the spread? IMHO, masks are only for health workers.
What about regular cleaning of surfaces, is that helping or is it a waste of time and money? It's bound to be a good idea anyway. Who hasn't sat down at a grotty cafe table?
Or is that stuff all a waste of time and the only importantly thing was staying away of you have the slightest sniffle? That especially!

If we knew the answers to this, we might not have to go into full lockdown when there is a flare up, and have a response which is not as intrusive as the self isolations that were promoted a couple of months ago. Put together they worked well, but if we can get the same outcome with less intrusion, that would be awesome.

Whatever the pros and cons of the lockdown, it's got our attention! Hopefully new, good habits will stay in front of our minds.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Wasn't it from Mexico?

Texas is from Mexico.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Is the big wave still two weeks away?

I've been waiting patiently for months now.

Also, where is the footage of people collapsing randomly on the street like those videos from China?

There's no way we've been lied to about all of this, surely. Not after all of the prosecutions following the WMD lies.

 

[Chief]

Is the big wave still two weeks away?

I've been waiting patiently for months now.

Also, where is the footage of people collapsing randomly on the street like those videos from China?

There's no way we've been lied to about all of this, surely. Not after all of the prosecutions following the WMD lies.

Who would be lying and for what purpose?