Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

Status
Not open for further replies.

Roby

Cancelled
10k Posts
Jul 27, 2008
13,241
11,501
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I'd say the above covers it; if COVID-19 is the driving cause of something underlying killing them, that wouldn't otherwise have killed them, or was being capably managed, then surely it's a death attributable to the virus still.

If you're an asthmatic you've technically got a co-morbidity for this disease, yet asthma is easily managed for the vast majority of cases and wouldn't cause death.


There are twice as many people in Australia that have asthma and cancer compared to Italy, and that's not per capita. We also have 50% less ICU beds per capita.

 

Demons09

Premiership Player
Jan 12, 2009
4,525
6,330
rockingham
AFL Club
Fremantle
Honestly mate only a w***er on either side of the argument would be worried about what a death is attributed to.
That’s not really the point is it? It’s more about how about many people require intensive treatment at one particular time nation wide.
Cmon mate he’s one if the kids that was allowed to stay home from school.
 

Roby

Cancelled
10k Posts
Jul 27, 2008
13,241
11,501
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Also true, I'd imagine that fatalities due to a car crash that couldn't get an ambulance or access to ICU won't get attributed to this, but are a very likely outcome in Italy in the moment.

There we be almost no car accidents in Italy right now and certainly safer to drive than to walk.
 
Aug 19, 2004
34,419
14,194
Grand Finals
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Team Rafael Nadal
Honestly mate only a w***er on either side of the argument would be worried about what a death is attributed to.
That’s not really the point is it? It’s more about how about many people require intensive treatment at one particular time nation wide.

It has been explained to them a million times already.
 

Les Malone

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2019
5,752
6,279
AFL Club
GWS
Suicide due to financial troubles due to corona virus lock down will be included in sure, gotta get that mortality rate up

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

We don't have a Government strong enough to say no, Western nations don't anymore.

It is similar to this, i believe in Euthanasia, however i don't want to be the one to make the decision and potentially have the guilt of possibly making a wrong or incorrect decision on my conscience, however the Government can tell themselves they were making the best decision at the time and not looking at the consequences of their decision, IMO it is driven by hysterical media (usually leftist)

to quote this ..... Policy-makers feel pressure from opponents who lambast inaction. Also adoption of measures in one institution, jurisdiction, or country creates pressure for taking similar measures elsewhere under fear of being accused of negligence.

 

Roby

Cancelled
10k Posts
Jul 27, 2008
13,241
11,501
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Confirmed by the CDC that the Virus survives for 17 days on surfaces.....





No wonder it is spreading so fast and you cannot possibly clean everything to eliminate it when it survives that long.

That's incredible.
 

Roby

Cancelled
10k Posts
Jul 27, 2008
13,241
11,501
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Honestly mate only a w***er on either side of the argument would be worried about what a death is attributed to.
That’s not really the point is it? It’s more about how about many people require intensive treatment at one particular time nation wide.
He has got his anti-hysteria agenda and his ego won't let it go till the bitter end.
 
Yeah I'm really struggling to understand the endgame behind what we are trying to achieve here.

There's no putting this virus back in the box. It's here to stay, forever. Even if we could theoretically lock every single Western citizen in their homes for a month, the fact that it has spread to all corners of the globe means there are always going to be reservoirs in places without effective governance, without proper sanitation or education or the ability to test and contain the spread. And given the asymptomatic nature of this virus, as soon as you try and ease restrictions, hot spots will flare up again, as is happening in China right now. It's inevitable.

The way I see it, covid-19 is more or less on track to become endemic around the world, and will continue to infect and kill people just as a host of other diseases do every year. And even if we can get a working vaccine in 12-18 months time, the sheer logistics of trying to roll that out globally are staggering. It would likely take even longer before we're remotely close to any sort of 'herd immunity.' And then we're only one small mutation from the whole train kicking off again.

And in the meantime, what? Are we just going to keep everyone locked inside indefinitely? For 6 months, 12 months, two years? Surely at some point we simply have to go on living life? Or are we now staring down the barrel of a future of closed borders, indefinite movement restrictions, fear and anxiety and panic?

In my opinion there's a deep philosophical question to be asked here, about what kind of life is worth living? People are welcome to disagree, but something in me sits so uncomfortably at the idea of all these people hunkered inside, too afraid to go out, to hug their loved ones, to breathe the fresh air, too scared to shake their neighbour's hand or share a meal or offer help to a stranger. And what about people losing their jobs, their livelihoods, their dreams?

I think there are a certain group of 'number crunchers' who are working on a statistical 'safety-first' model that have forgotten that there's more to life than eking out an existence to 99 while pumped full of drugs and staring at the wall of your nursing home in isolation. Sure, you can wrap everyone in bubble wrap and they'll 'survive', but at what cost?

I'm young and fit and healthy and so I understand it's easy to talk like this, but I've also had a long conversation with my elderly parents, and we all decided that while it would be an absolute personal tragedy to lose them, and I would grieve their absence from the bottom of my heart, if ultimately fate deigns that their time is up, we will try to accept that with grace and humility and in the knowledge that their lives have been richly lived and loved. We can be sensible and careful but I don't expect the entire world to shut down to protect them. In the end death comes for us all eventually, no matter what we do. It is the one true inevitability of life.

I just don't know what the end point of all this is and I find that almost more terrifying than the virus, because history tells us once our freedoms and rights are taken it is often hard to get them back. And a world without freedom stretching years and years into the future is not something I want to contemplate :(


If you listen to the experts there is really only 3 possibilities
(1) Vaccination
(2) Dies out by itself, like SARS
(3) It's here for good and continues to mutate.


One thing that you're missing ,which is very important IMO, is that the lockdown/flattening of the curve is about not overwhelming our health system. Overwhelming the system will make the economic and health aspects infinitely worse, short and long term.

If we, and every other country, had enough ICU beds to cope with the number of people this would affect, then there would be less need for a lockdown.
Deputy Chief Medic says we can triple our ICU capacity relatively quickly. That's still only about 6000 ICU beds. Italy has 4000.

That we use ICU to treat the gravely ill is very important. When you are treating severe illness in non ICU type scenarios then you start killing health professionals. Then it's a death spiral which is hard to arrest. Like we saw in Italy.
 
Aug 19, 2004
34,419
14,194
Grand Finals
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Team Rafael Nadal
If you listen to the experts there is really only 3 possibilities
(1) Vaccination
(2) Dies out by itself, like SARS
(3) It's here for good and continues to mutate.


One thing that you're missing ,which is very important IMO, is that the lockdown/flattening of the curve is about not overwhelming our health system. Overwhelming the system will make the economic and health aspects infinitely worse, short and long term.

If we, and every other country, had enough ICU beds to cope with the number of people this would affect, then there would be less need for a lockdown.
Deputy Chief Medic says we can triple our ICU capacity relatively quickly. That's still only about 6000 ICU beds. Italy has 4000.

That we use ICU to treat the gravely ill is very important. When you are treating severe illness in non ICU type scenarios then you start killing health professionals. Then it's a death spiral which is hard to arrest. Like we saw in Italy.

And this is apparently so hard for everyone to understand, some are even prepared to send people older than 60 to concentration camps for this.
 

Les Malone

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2019
5,752
6,279
AFL Club
GWS
It's just a flu.


The evolving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic1 is certainly cause for concern. Proper communication and optimal decision-making is an ongoing challenge, as data evolve. The challenge is compounded, however, by exaggerated information. This can lead to inappropriate actions. It is important to differentiate promptly the true epidemic from an epidemic of false claims and potentially harmful actions.


 
May 8, 2007
48,686
71,371
AFL Club
Richmond
90528052_10158818664177241_3237244484538335232_o.jpg



 

its free real estate

it's free real estate
Jul 30, 2018
11,782
15,176
AFL Club
Fremantle
Presenting the its free real estate is pretty cool: deaths outside China stats

DATEEXPONENTIAL MODELLOGISTIC MODELCASES
05/03/2020290290273
06/03/2020340320345
07/03/2020420420421
08/03/2020520520503
09/03/2020610600709
10/03/2020870870883
11/03/2020110011001134
12/03/2020150015001460
13/03/2020190019001786
14/03/2020230022002233
15/03/2020280027002631
16/03/2020340031003291
17/03/2020410039003918
18/03/2020490046004749
19/03/2020590056005684
20/03/2020700066006928
21/03/2020840082008269
22/03/20201000098009924
23/03/2020120001200011489
24/03/2020140001300013237
The next week:





DATEEXPONENTIAL FORECASTLOGISTIC FORECAST
25/03/20201600015000
26/03/20201900017000
27/03/20202300019000
28/03/20202700021000
29/03/20203200023000
30/03/20203800025000
31/03/20204500027000
The graph


1585034389674.png



Million mark: 19 April 2020
Logistic max deaths: 38,000

---

Another night where the reported cases were slightly under the logistic forecast. The forecast was 1900-2200 deaths, and we had ~1700. So the rate looks like it is slowing down. This is mostly due to Italy getting a handle on things - the shutdowns are working!

Tonight's forecast: 2000-2500. I think it will undershoot again.
 
You better get ready for China to dominate everything

They are slowly starting to get back to something approaching control over this
Slowly their Commerce and Industry is starting up, just as the rest of the world is still to reach the peak of the virus
They will come out of it ahead of everyone and they will use that new found power
I agree. The world should unite against this, the US needs to do a deal with Russia if possible.
 
+327 for Australia today, similar to yesterday, let's hope it doesn't get worse.
There are more people infected currently, known infected, than there is ventilators if they take a turn.

So five times this many and it's ugly time, assuming 20% need critical care.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back