Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[owen87]

Plenty of people are questioning the narrative, i prefer to base my questioning of it on professionals papers, opinions and articles and also their maths.

Why do people have a problem with that ?.

So no, you're not provide any form of opinion of your own, is what you're saying.

 

[Malifice]

The Sunshine Coast is full of...ahem, special people. Very right-wing; full of retirees and beach bums.

And cashed up bogans.

They're the worst.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

In Italy 2 in 1000 are known to have contracted it.
Does that mean every man and their dog knows someone who got it. Pretty sure some of the dogs don't know anyone with it.

San Marino is a good study of what it could be like in some of the Northern Italian rural areas.
Population 33 000, so around the size of Mildura, except San Marino has a number of smaller villages, the largest having a population of 7000.
230 cases and 22 deaths is obviously significant for such an area.
Around 20% of their population are 65 or over.
Compared to Italy 22%, or Australia 16% or China 11% or Iran 5%.

At three times the Italian average though, there are probably other communities that are relatively untouched.

View attachment IMG_3891.MOV

 

[Ghost Patrol]

The Sunshine Coast is full of...ahem, special people. Very right-wing; full of retirees and beach bums.

Depends where on coast really. Noosa is totally different demographics than Caloundra, for example

 

[DaRick]

Depends where on coast really. Noosa is totally different demographics than Caloundra.

From memory, retirees are a bit more common in Noosa; beach bums are a bit more common in Caloundra.

But there is considerable overlap.

 

[twotooto]

Beats me. They must have sorted it out before hand with the Hotel.

3 meals a day and lockdown in the Sheraton. At least its free, otherwise you'd be racking up bill in the thousands.

So after travelling around South America for the last 3 or 4 months and having your trip abruptly cut short are you viewing your own 14 day isolation as a quarantine or as a kind of enforced rehab?

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Still awaiting a work colleagues test result from Saturday.

Check that- negative.
Unreal he was at a bar 2 weeks ago and apparently 17 tested positive including the 3 he was with directly!
He’d not be the sort you’d want getting it either.

 

[Mofra]

From memory, retirees are a bit more common in Noosa; beach bums are a bit more common in Caloundra.

But there is considerable overlap.

The Hinterland is full of hippies though. I'd imagine Covid-19 would hit them hard there, as there's only so many homeopaths to go around.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Beats me. They must have sorted it out before hand with the Hotel.

3 meals a day and lockdown in the Sheraton. At least its free, otherwise you'd be racking up bill in the thousands.

Yeah I'd happily go into quarantine at the Sheraton. Imagine being stiffed and drawing the Holiday Inn though

 

[SaintsSeptember]

How do they decide which hotel you go to? Is it pot luck?

Was a thing where some guy sat in a bus and waited while most of the passengers were taken into a 5 star place.
They then took the remainder to an Ibis.

 

[Malifice]

So after travelling around South America for the last 3 or 4 months and having your own trip abruptly cut shirt are you viewing your 14 day isolation as a quarantine or as a kind of enforced rehab?

Im still trying to process how I went from endless random hook-ups in Hostel toilets to sitting on my Ex-GF's couch doing 14 days isolation while the world goes to s**t.

Things turned so bloody fast.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Was a thing where some guy sat in a bus and waited while most of the passengers were taken into a 5 star place.
They then took the remainder to an Ibis.

Yeah I felt for that guy. So close to scoring the Inter and they they * you off to a glorified motel.

 

[Malifice]

Yeah I'd happily go into quarantine at the Sheraton. Imagine being stiffed and drawing the Holiday Inn though

Im curious to know how the Rottnest island guys and gals are going. They've probably put them up in the beach houses there (for anyone whose been there).

 

[Taylor]

Im curious to know how the Rottnest island guys and gals are going. They've probably put them up in the beach houses there (for anyone whose been there).

I'm curious what the island security is like for people trying to smuggle contraband onto the island.

 

[Malifice]

They didn't even give her a room key.

They (the Army) just locked her in her room and told her not to leave.

What a time to be alive.

 

[Malifice]

I'm curious what the island security is like for people trying to smuggle contraband onto the island.

Id go for a drive down the coast, but I'm stuck at my ex GF's house in Palmyra for another week.

Wouldnt surprise me to see police boat or two near the island. Maybe even a RAN patrol boat.

The government is taking this s**t seriously.

 

[Taylor]

Id go for a drive down the coast, but I'm stuck at my ex GF's house in Palmyra for another week.

Wouldnt surprise me to see police boat or two near the island. Maybe even a RAN patrol boat.

The government is taking this s**t seriously.

A whole load of growing operations took a battering in a freak storm front a month ago from what I hear, this is genuinely third hand information, so I expect local supply has dwindled - so I'm thinking that people will pay quite a bit to get a package of contraband drone dropped onto their Rotto porch from a boat offshore and someone gets to sit on the beach with a shot/net gun in the beautiful sun and "intercept" it all and I think I'd love that job.

 

[Mofra]

Yeah I felt for that guy. So close to scoring the Inter and they they fu** you off to a glorified motel.

Hey, the Ibis guy gets all the single serve sachets of international roast he can drink. Plus those double-packs of arnotts biscuits - nice and arrowroot.

 

[Taylor]

The wifi is notoriously terrible in hotels so the webcam work would take a huge hit

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Not at all overwhelmed.

I've said before I think China's data is completely false but that their actions (closing the temporary hospitals, now returning to work and such) suggest they've got a lid on it.

Using China's data to suggest anything about the virus other that they believe it's at a manageable level is flawed however.

I said use the data to tell a trend, and that is it's being managed for now, which you agree with.

There will be a second wave, and we will see how china management and containment occurs then (it's on the cusp, with most new cases being expats returning home)

 

[Bazzar]

Some folks with a poor understanding of science tend to just "appeal to authority" by way of credentials when they hand pick data that sits in line with their existing worldview.

Good scientific thinkers go straight to the data and analyze it with regard to how it's presented. Reputations take the back seat.

Not sure if you've watched this. Worth putting aside 40 minutes.

17 minute mark goes into great depth on how and why Italy's high fatality rate has occured.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Was a thing where some guy sat in a bus and waited while most of the passengers were taken into a 5 star place.
They then took the remainder to an Ibis.

Stayed one night in the Ibis in Hobart last year (when we were all free). Had a view of a brick wall and roof of building next door. The room was just big enough to fit the bed and a couple of small chairs. Can't imagine spending 2 weeks there, it WOULD be like prison

 

[Pessimistic]

I have read the letter twice and watched the video.
It gave rise to a serious think about it.

On one hand I have heard (media) a figure of 28 persons being put in ICU in Aust I do not know whether that was NSW or a state or whether that is accurate. What is the latest 18? dead. Mostly oldies with major health problems.
That on the face of it tends to indicate the reaction is panic overkill (no pun intended)

But is it really?

Lets imagine what he and the French study is correct, i.e. it is just another corona (flu like virus)

Is there a problem?

YES! ???

In Italy 40-50 doctors have died and an estimate of some 4000 nurses have become infected
NY is getting there too.


Is this desirable, should we all say "she'll be right mate" it is just a bad flu?????
NO. It's infection rate is extreme estimated at 2.5 meaning it is exponential (every case created 2.5 others) at the moment.

Let's forget it is flu for the moment . Let s say it is a very bad gastro instead.
Do we want a large proportion of our health care workers to be off work crook for weeks and can kill elderly patients with a bug that is exponential when there is no remedy yet, no vaccine, meaning people with other ailments get less treatment.

Extreme :Note on door of your local Hospital sorry due to lack of staff numbers the hospital is closed to the public and working on a skelton staff, if you have the bug then F**k OFF and die if you have just had a car crash ring us up and if you can prove you haven't got the bug then we might risk losing more staff to try and save your life.

The reaction is to try and reduce the infection rate below 1.0 (eg down to 0.5, one 1 infected person does not create another to replace it even every 2 for 1 is going to be difficult to achieve without drastic action NOW!!!!)

Less than 1.0 means the spread rate will ultimately disappear over time. It should

Do you understand if not re read and then ask

My gut feel is low population density in major cities, relatively low use of public transport compared to the major epicentres.
Europeans are renowned for their kisses when greeting, were not.
Not sure if our warmer, dry climate has helped too.
Not like we've had tight restrictions anywhere until today, so it's not our policies keeping our numbers down.

i reckon the message got around aged care facilities a couple of weeks ago though

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Stayed one night in the Ibis in Hobart last year (when we were all free). Had a view of a brick wall and roof of building next door. The room was just big enough to fit the bed and a couple of small chairs. Can't imagine spending 2 weeks there, it WOULD be like prison

I worked in a juvenile detention centre for 3 months. A shitty hotel room is much better than a prison.

For starters, remove the toilet seat, curtains and anything that isn't bolted down.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They didn't even give her a room key.

They (the Army) just locked her in her room and told her not to leave.

What a time to be alive.

Who pays for the Mini Bar?