Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 4 - The nips are gettin' bigger.

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Im in Europe and had covid a couple of weeks ago.

Was like a mild cold for 2-3 days, then general tiredness for another ~3.

All good now.

Half a dozen friends also had it. Most similar to me, a couple with more flu like symptoms (headache, fevers, aches and pains) for a week or so.

All around our 30s, relatively healthy; for us, it was nothing to worry about.
You are all recovered and immune. You may still be required to get vaccinated in order to travel, enter your workplace, go into a pub etc.
 

Total Power

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It doesn't make sense to look at part years because of seasonal considerations. 2020 as a whole is 14.1% up on the US last 5 years average which is significant. But similar to the UK, the mortality rate in the US was higher in every year between 1950 and 2003 than it was in 2020. We are not looking at mortality rates higher than what we've seen in the last 20 years.

Also, if Covid-19 is taking people a few months or a year early who are already seriously ill it could be that 2021 turns out to be a low mortality year.

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It absolutely makes sense, March is the end of the flu season in the Northern hemispheres due to spring in April and covid really didn't start spreading till March.

You cannot compare the mortality rates from 1950, it's silly to do so, life expectancy went from 71 years in 1950 to 79 years in 2019. You are not accounting for the technological advances, even 2003 data is less relevant.

However i believe the focus been all wrong here (on the number of dead people here). Hospitals here are overflowing, 92% of the ICU units are occupied in Bulgaria as of last week and getting worse and it's already spring!!
 

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Total Power

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My brain hurts from how badly that author has butchered statistics. 23% increase in excess deaths is not in any way a 23% increase in deaths. And the usual 1-2% excess deaths is relative to total deaths, so again not comparable to the 23% figure in the way the article is written.
The total deaths spiked by 15% actually


The Associated Press reported in December that preliminary U.S. mortality data indicated the U.S. was on track to clock the deadliest year on record with a 15 percent spike in the death rate. The upcoming MMWR report from the CDC will formalize that analysis.

The mortality study will build off of a recently released report that showed that U.S. life expectancy had dropped by a full year as a result of Covid-19 from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.8 years




That's remarkable, when was the last time life expectancy fell by a full year in the US? you need to go back to WW2

 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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I'm far more concerned about our young people than the oldies.

Property prices booming, education impeded, social development stalled, and employment opportunities limited. It seems we've sold out our children's future to give granny Mavis another 5 years of alone time in her nursing home.
No one asked the elderly if they wanted massive societal restrictions in the name of protecting them. People in their 80s and 90s are well aware of their mortality and value the small things in life such as being able to see their grandchildren, go for a trip or get a pensioner's special pub meal. I think many would accept the small additional risk of dying early from Covid-19 if it meant they had some quality of life in their remaining days.

They would also consider the impact to their children and grand-children caused by schools being closed, businesses going under, lack of socialisation etc - while knowing that Sars-Cov-2 had minimal health impacts on those younger age groups.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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The Associated Press reported in December that preliminary U.S. mortality data indicated the U.S. was on track to clock the deadliest year on record with a 15 percent spike in the death rate.
False. The mortality rate in the US was higher in every year between 1950 and 2003 than it was in 2020.

see table 5

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and 2020 mortality rate

.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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It absolutely makes sense, March is the end of the flu season in the Northern hemispheres due to spring in April and covid really didn't start spreading till March.
The US is a mixture of Northern Hemisphere seasons and tropical. As I said, I think we have to look at the combined crude mortality rates of 2020 and 2021 to see the full picture of the effect from Covid-19.

You cannot compare the mortality rates from 1950, it's silly to do so, life expectancy went from 71 years in 1950 to 79 years in 2019. You are not accounting for the technological advances, even 2003 data is less relevant.
I'm not comparing the mortality rates to 1950. I'm saying that 2020 is not exceptional when you look at the previous period as recently as 2003 in both the US and UK.
 

Total Power

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False. The mortality rate in the US was higher in every year between 1950 and 2003 than it was in 2020.

see table 5

,
That's because the leading cause of 'death' in the US being heart disease! 588 in 1950, 257 in 2000!

All these numbers prove i am right. Cardiovascular disease from 258 in 2000 to 163 in 2018.

Malignant neoplasms which is the 2nd leading cause of death went from 200 in 2000 to 149 in 2018 and possibly lower in 2019.

Flu (+covid) has never been the top 3 leading cause of death, till 2020.

Which precisely proves i am right, you are not accounting for the scientific advancements, you are simply interpreting data on face value.
 

PP34

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What did they do that was appreciably different to the countries where lockdowns didn't work? And I mean specifically their lockdown rules.
I specifically remember people in the UK being in large numbers at pubs before this second wave of infections. Saw people travelling between European nations for holidays and sitting around pools etc like Covid wasn’t a thing. The UK has been allover the shop with their restrictions which clearly didn’t help to stop infections and has now led to a prolonged time in lockdown.

I obviously have my own issues with Australia’s strategy towards Covid but locking down rapidly has been proven time and time again in this county to reduce infections once Covid is out in the community. Are we isolated from the rest of the world which helps? Yes. But stopping people from leaving their houses absolutely stops the virus spreading.
 

H2F

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I don’t know if this is the right thread for it as I don’t post much on here anymore.

But is anyone else talking about the number of ‘trapped Aussies’. It absolutely blows me away.

Go all the way back to last August and there was 40k reported. September 40k.

Guess what. October 40k. Moving forward to February, you wouldn’t believe it 40k. Something is seriously muddy about this. We’re bringing thousands a week here in hotel quarantine risking so much to Australia and the fact these numbers don’t change is so strange to me. What am I missing?
 

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SJ17

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I don’t know if this is the right thread for it as I don’t post much on here anymore.

But is anyone else talking about the number of ‘trapped Aussies’. It absolutely blows me away.

Go all the way back to last August and there was 40k reported. September 40k.

Guess what. October 40k. Moving forward to February, you wouldn’t believe it 40k. Something is seriously muddy about this. We’re bringing thousands a week here in hotel quarantine risking so much to Australia and the fact these numbers don’t change is so strange to me. What am I missing?
People are still leaving the country for various reasons. There will be Aussies trapped overseas for as long as we continue with hotel quarantine. The majority of Australians seem to think this is acceptable.
 

Rob R

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I don’t know if this is the right thread for it as I don’t post much on here anymore.

But is anyone else talking about the number of ‘trapped Aussies’. It absolutely blows me away.

Go all the way back to last August and there was 40k reported. September 40k.

Guess what. October 40k. Moving forward to February, you wouldn’t believe it 40k. Something is seriously muddy about this. We’re bringing thousands a week here in hotel quarantine risking so much to Australia and the fact these numbers don’t change is so strange to me. What am I missing?
The Govt is stupidly including permanent residents in the scheme taking spots from Australians, state and fed govts are giving exemptions for people like celebrities, some international students are trickling in and more people are deciding to come home and are registering (end of contracts, lost jobs) etc

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H2F

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People are still leaving the country for various reasons. There will be Aussies trapped overseas for as long as we continue with hotel quarantine. The majority of Australians seem to think this is acceptable.
How are they ‘trapped’ then? If you choose to leave fair enough, but that’s not being trapped.
 

H2F

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The Govt is stupidly including permanent residents in the scheme taking spots from Australians, state and fed govts are giving exemptions for people like celebrities, some international students are trickling in and more people are deciding to come home and are registering (end of contracts, lost jobs) etc

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Still seems strange it’s always 40k. Seems arbitrary to just allow as much incoming traffic as we can handle and it’s a huge risk that’s already killed over 800 people.
 

Dogs_R_Us

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Still seems strange it’s always 40k. Seems arbitrary to just allow as much incoming traffic as we can handle and it’s a huge risk that’s already killed over 800 people.


There are more articles on Google but the first explains why the number keeps changing. 650,000+ have returned in the last 12 months.
 

SJ17

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How are they ‘trapped’ then? If you choose to leave fair enough, but that’s not being trapped.
I see what you mean but these people can still register as wanting to return home.
People are only leaving for very good reasons, and they are choosing to go, but some of them would most definitely be trapped once they get there.
 

H2F

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There are more articles on Google but the first explains why the number keeps changing. 650,000+ have returned in the last 12 months.
Exactly my point.

if 40k we’re trapped last August/September and so many are coming back, then the definition of ‘trapped’ must mean you left in the last few weeks and aren’t able to immediately return. That’s not trapped, that’s inconvenienced at most.

I understand some people need to travel for genuine reasons (whether to see a family member, medical treatment etc) but I actually think there’s largely a complete misunderstanding by the public and the media is sprouting this, because the Government wants a certain amount of flights/seats for political reasons and if this went on for a decade nothing would change.

is that worth the risk? IMO no. What if we have another major outbreak and significant deaths? I just don’t get how it’s acceptable to have so much international travel as I’ve already stated, all in the pretence of ‘trapped’ Aussies.
 

H2F

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I see what you mean but these people can still register as wanting to return home.
People are only leaving for very good reasons, and they are choosing to go, but some of them would most definitely be trapped once they get there.
If people were only leaving for very good reasons we wouldn’t have this many flights. I guarantee you the vast majority are rich people finding loopholes for business and political interests being served. Can’t believe it’s not a bigger issue. 800 people died because of it.
 

owen87

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If people were only leaving for very good reasons we wouldn’t have this many flights. I guarantee you the vast majority are rich people finding loopholes for business and political interests being served. Can’t believe it’s not a bigger issue. 800 people died because of it.
There's plenty of people living / working overseas that aren't in a desperate immediate situation requiring them to return home, that would like to come back given the situation in Australia is much better than most of the northern hemisphere, or that were previously thinking of returning home but are finding the longer this goes on the more they feel they want to move back here. Job contracts, leases, various family situations etc...

Rich people on business trips would be a very small proportion of those numbers.
 

Crankyhawk

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I'm far more concerned about our young people than the oldies.

Property prices booming, education impeded, social development stalled, and employment opportunities limited. It seems we've sold out our children's future to give granny Mavis another 5 years of alone time in her nursing home.

If I learned anything from 2020, it's that I don't like people.
Property prices are booming before covid as well, so would not attribute it to covid. I blame overly generous capital gains rules which allow residential property to be treated as an investment. And removing them now will only reduce upward drivers, not force sales and drop prices. Massive interest rate shock might drop prices but then I’d say that the whole economy would be f’ed in that case.

I’m a little surprised no one has made more of the link I posted earlier where covid in Victoria was not statistically significantly worse in terms of death/ mechanically ventilation cf non covid causes in July 2020
 

SJ17

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If people were only leaving for very good reasons we wouldn’t have this many flights. I guarantee you the vast majority are rich people finding loopholes for business and political interests being served. Can’t believe it’s not a bigger issue. 800 people died because of it.
We need to do more flights not less. We are effectively blocking citizens from returning home which is a disgrace.
 

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